Irina did not win Olympic Gold and 3rd World title since I angered the Skate Gods
I would like to apologize for my possibly not only costing Irina the 2006 Olympic Gold, but possibly even causing her to withdraw and not go for a 3rd World title at the 2006 Worlds soon after. I think I angered the Skate Gods with my over-confident, bordering on arrogant outlook around 23 months ago.
You see around 23 months ago I was musing how Irina's career with her inevitable Olympic Gold in 2006 to go with her Olympic Silver in 2002, combined with her inevitable 3rd World title in 2006, to give her a total of 7 Worlds medals, combined with her inevitable 7th European title (well atleast I got that right ) and her inevitable 5th GP final title (wrong even on that); would compare to the career of her great rival Michelle Kwan, and her Olympic Silver and Bronze, her 5 World titles, 9 World medals, 9 U.S titles, 1 GP final title (in only 5 appearances, way less attempts then Irina).
Like most I had my doubts about Michelle returning at all that season, and if she did was doubting her being healthy/competition sharp enough to be successful, so I did not even really consider the possability of her adding to her collection. Not that I was wishing that in anyway, it was just how it looked at the time. Keep in mind things began to look more promising for Michelle in the month before the Olympics began, and even then she still was unable to compete at Nationals or remain healthy enough to compete at the Olympics.
So I merely focused on Irina's inevitable Olympic Gold, which with her looking so dominant for the entire 2004-2005 season, and the 2005 GP events I had already awarded her in my mind; and the 2006 Worlds, which likewise for the same reasons I had already awarded her in my own mind; and how her final career would compare to her greatest rival after these "presumed" wins. I arrogantly began a poll on fsuniverse worded "after Irina wins......who will have had the greater career between the two". I did not even consider the possability she would not win either event. I mean the girl was killing everyone, she was in the best form of her career, Irina losing either the Olympic Gold or the World title after the Olympics, or any event to come that season, unthinkable.
I think the Skate Gods were unhappy. This poll was started just before the GP final that season. We all know what happened there, and the invincability that had surrounded Irina for the last season and a half at that point was punctured when she lost the GP final in a massive upset to up and coming star Mao Asada and her triple axel. Then the Skate Gods teased me that all was still alright and allowed Irina a commanding win, with commanding performances at the Europeans. However in Turin the Skate Gods dealt me my final punishment, and victimized Irina in the process, with that deflating long program and bronze medal finish. Then just as I was looking forward to some consolation at the upcoming Worlds in Calgary the Skate Gods not only had her withdraw, but attempt to turn back on that decision and skate, but just be late in her decision, and seeing a teeny bopper take the title instead.
So Irina's failure to complete her career with the elusive Olympic Gold and a 3rd World title was probably partialy my fault. In my arrogance of considering her final career with those titles, and prouncing as such, I tempered the Skate Gods and the Skate Gods will always have the final laugh. I will be more careful when my current favorite Stephane Lambiel approaches the Olympics in Vancouver, I will not seal his fate through my own mistake as I did Irina. If he loses it will not be because I angered the Skate Gods, and sealed his fate for him.
Last edited by slutskayafan21; 10-22-2007 at 12:05 AM.
I would like to add that some of us should remember a certain GoldenSkate poster tempered the Skate Gods again. Opening a thread that was entitled something to the effect of the "party and celebration" thread for Asada's inevitable World title. No matter that Asada had lost 2 of the 3 main international events she was in that year, melting down somewhat in the long program both times (although in fairness she was sick in one of them). When Asada was "on" she was untouchable, and this poster could not forsee anything but a red hot Asada at home. I believe it was chuckm who warned that the Skate Gods would not be happy. Well we all see what happened. The Skate Gods do not have alot of patience, one must be careful to not test them.
Well, TBH, Asada only lost the Championships because of a really, really bad rule. (my clean Triple jump got a -3 GOE, wut?)
I know even with her major error in the short, and couple small ones in the long, she lost points on a technicality which cost her multiple points definitely lost her the Championship. I forget what it was though, underrotated jump?
Originally Posted by GoldMedalist
OK now I get it, you mean losing additional points for the combination, not just the points for the singled triple loop on the end. I agree with you, just stupid that they are required to give her all -3 on GOE for that, which cost her an additional 3 points.
On top of that she also had her double axel-triple toe combination in the free skate which was two footed, downgraded to a double axel-double toe instead. I wonder if that was a correct decision or not?
Although in the end maybe it worked out for the best since a skater who delivered two clean excellent programs (Ando) was not denied by a skater who had mistakes. Although I guess under COP that scenario can play out often, and it something people who dont like that happening have to get used to. I remember there was alot of complaining when that scenario took place with Cohen and Slutskaya vs Suguri in Turin.
Last edited by slutskayafan21; 10-22-2007 at 01:25 AM.
I just realized all the points Asada gave away outright with mistakes, or lost points according to the technical specialist/rules. Just directly:
short program mistake of triple flip-triple loop into triple flip-single loop: 4.5 lost points in difficulty value + 3 points for the -3.0 GOE = 7.5 lost points
long program two footed triple axel: 1 lost point for the -1.0 GOE
long program two footed/slightly cheated double axel-triple toe combo: 1.2 points for -1.20 GOE + 2.7 points for being downgraded to double axel-
double toe = 3.9 lost points
So just in outright points directly lost alone: 7.5 + 1 + 3.9 = 12.4 points
That is before even considering the points she potentialy lost in additional positive GOE had they been done cleanly, and additional PCS had her performances been clean. Yet Miki Ando with the two skates of her life managed to win by only 0.64. That is a bit scary for her, even in victory, but no matter what she will always have the World title at home in Japan, and the win over her arch-nemisis to do it, no matter how many little stars had to align to pull it off.
Last edited by slutskayafan21; 10-22-2007 at 01:34 AM.
It was correct to call the Toeloop as not a full Triple, but it was not correct to downgrade it to a double. It wasn't a double, plain and simple.The CoP needs to define underrotated jumps with their own values.
Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
The CoP also needs to define exactly where a jump starts and where it lands:
Asada's downgraded 3Toe actually had slightly more total rotation in the air than Meissner's 3Toe in the Short Program, which was called as a real Triple. Why? Because if you look at when Meissner's toepick actually leaves the ice, it's a 1/4 turn further...Asada (or any other skater who does a toeloop properly) has already been in the air for that 1/4 turn -- should that simply be ignored? I seriously do not think so. A jump should be considered as having "taken off" when the free foot (including toepick) is entirely off the ice and the blade of the skating foot is off the ice.
Then, as for when a jump should be considered landed, I think it needs to be seen as when the top of the blade touches the ice -- not the toepick. Why? Because that's what you can see with your eye. Does it really matter if the skater's toepick brushed the ice a little more than a quarter turn short, when it requires a zoomed in camera perspective and slow-motion to tell? Not to me. The caller at worlds went really crazy with the jump downgrades and seemed to be calling at the exact point at which the toepick touched the ice on all of his slow-motion replays. Poor Emily Hughes got screwed over with 3 jump downgrades (double screwed since, again, underrotated jumps should be seen as their own thing anyway and not scored as a jump of a full rotation less) and they all looked fine on rotation to me.
That just about covers the first problem.
The next issue is the Short Program deduction to jumps. I'm in favor of a half-point deduction rather than a -3 GOE. Why? First of all, losing as many as 3 points is far too much of a penalty when you consider that the skater is already being penalized for popping a jump (because that jump is worth less). Secondly, GOE is about the quality of an element only. Mao Asada did a clean Triple Flip + Single Loop but if she had double-footed the Flip, it wouldn't have mattered. It still would have been the same -3 GOE with the current rules. Such a deduction is not a truthful reflection of what the skater actually did.
I personally think Mao was very overscored on the Program Components for her Long Program but, if you credit her jumps accurately (losing half a point extra for the SP mistake rather than 3 points extra; scoring the underrotated Triple Toe correctly), her point total would have pulled ahead of Ando's even if you drop Mao's total Program Component score to a reasonable number. However, it really was extremely close.
She has a lot to improve upon. Mao's spins are better, her Spirals are better, and her line and flow is better. Mao's LP also packs stronger jump content. Miki needs to add a second Triple/Triple combination to her Long Program. The jumps are her biggest strength, she can't afford to lose any ground there.
Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
Well, if it will assuage your guilt, S-fan, you weren't alone, LOL. Most everyone thought the Irina Express could not be derailed in 2005 and 2006.
Even when she let Mao sneak up on her in the Grand Prix final, that didn't matter because Mao was not age eligible for the Olympics. Arakawa hadn't done much since 2004. Sasha? -- pencil her in for the silver. Michelle? Did you see her in the Marshall's cheesefest?
As for Irina's legacy -- either as it is or as it might have been -- compared to Michelle's, they really had quite different careers. Michelle was a child prodigy. Some people think she peaked at 16 (I don't think that, but some do), while Irina peaked at 26.
I don't know why Irina seemed to run out of steam just at the wrong moment. An athlete can't be at her all-time best every time out. Plus, we don't know how often her chronic health situation flared up to sap her strength.
Last edited by Mathman; 10-22-2007 at 02:36 PM.
I have to give Mao her props for going for eveything no matter what. She could easily scale back to what she knows she can do every time, and this would probably be enough to guarantee her a string of victories.
Originally Posted by slutskayafan21
Instead, her attitude is, I'm not staisfied with just a triple Axel, I'll do tirpel Axel combo. I'm not satisfied with a triple Axel combo, I'll do a triple Axel combo out of footwork.
I'm not satisfied with that, I'll upgrade my triple Lutz / triple toe to 3Lz/3Lo.
Plus, if she wanted to, she could just coast on her technical score alone, but instead she is working hard at choreography and expression.
Last edited by Mathman; 10-22-2007 at 09:58 AM.
There are no "Skate Gods". There's just good execution and poor execution. Foget about it, S-fan.
oh, I think there are skate gods...
Scott Hamilton - Skate God 4 Life
Brian Orser - The Original Skate God
Kurt Browning - Skate God Jr.
Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program
well it's not over till it's over. I had no doubt that the 2006 olympic gold belongedd to Irain just as easy as it belnged to Evgeni, but it just goes to show you andything can happen...and it often does.