Dube/Davison's chances?

slutskayafan21 · Oct 28, 2007

After their big win over Pang/Tong (yes a sluggish Pang/Tong but a win is a win) at Skate America last week what chance do Dube/Davison have of pulling their second big win and beating out Savchenko/Szowkoly for the win at Skate Canada? I think they have a good chance. The Germans struggle with consistency, although when they are on they might be almost unbeatable among the current pairs left in the World. They had a 130+ in the Europeans LP last year which shows what they are capable of when they are really bang on, a score probably only Shen/Zhou and Totmianina/Marinin who are both gone were capable of, but they more often turn in performances in the mid 110s due to consistency issues. Dube/Davison are generally pretty good with consistency, and their very good PCS for their imperfect LP at Skate America show the judges might be warming up to them more and more. I think we could see a 2nd big win for Dube/Davison here.

oleada · Oct 28, 2007

I think that S&S will be harder to beat than Pang and Tong. I think the judges prefer S&S to Pang and Tong, and they are very COP savvy. Savchenko & Szolkowy are also better skaters than Pang and Tong. They have a technical edge over Dubé and Davison - throw triple flip, triple twist and I think they are planning both triple toe-loops and triple salchows in the LP. Also their SP is fabulous this year! :love:

Edit: Also, they scored 69+ at Nebelhorn earlier in the season. I know B internationals tend to be a little inflated, but their PCS were on par with what they got at Worlds.

I don't think Dubé and Davison are as consistent as you say. They tend to make mistakes in every performance. I don't think I've ever do a flawless performance.

I really like both teams and I think they'll go 1 - 2, but the Germans will win it.

lilybear · Oct 29, 2007

I don't think D/D would beat S/S. Though they got high PCS in SA, their performance is not perfect. And the technique of them is not as good as S/S too.
By the way,They may not beat K/S.

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 30, 2007

At their worst, D&D should be able to get a bronze.giving them 11 points to add to their SA gold of 15 totalling 26 points. Will it be enough for the Finals?

Highest total points will be 30 points
Next Highest will be 28 points
Next 26 points
Next 24 points
Next 22 points

Those Teams getting 30 or 28 points will make the Final. How many? Idunno
Those getting 26 are very probably going to make the Final.
Those getting 24 may well end in several ties battling out for a 6th place.
Those getting 22 or less will probably left out.

Teams who may get 30 = S&S; Z&Z
Teams who may get 28 = P&T; K&S; D&D (maybe)
Teams who may get 26 = D&D (at least)

Given the 5 fairly safe couples for the Final. We will be looking at one more team and hope they do not tie D&D. because it may be possible for yet another couple to make a drive for 26 points. However, I think D&D's 1st place will be a deciding factor if there is a tie.

Other Teams to watch: B&Z; D&B; L&X; Mc/B; - All of these will be looking for 26 points or breaking a tie at 24.

Agree with the avove analysis?

Joe

Tinymavy15 · Oct 30, 2007

S&S play to the new system, but they are not that consistant. If Dube and Davidson can skate like they did at Skate America they have a good chance. Don't forget thet Pang/Tong are worlds champions and that Dube and Davidson will be skating at home ice in Canada!

chuckm · Oct 30, 2007

The GPF this year is going to be a little strange.

SA: Medalists D/D, P/T and B/L. The Russians who finished 3rd are unlikely to return for a second event since they have the JGPF in December.

SC: Likely medalists: D/D, S/S, Russian K/S (in no particular order). Even a bronze medal puts D/D in the GPF.

CC: Likely medalists: P/T, McL/B, bronze up for grabs. P/T make the GPF.

TEB: Likely medalists: Zhangs, Russian M/T, P/T (3rd event) or Ukrainian V/M.

CoR: Likely medalists: S/S, Z/Z, K/S or M/T. This is an interesting one. The Russians may have taken one or both of their teams out of the GPF. S/S should make the final and maybe Z/Z, too, leaving 2 spots.

NHK: D/D and S/S return for a second event, and will probably win G/S. Bronze will go to McL/B, Ukrainian V/M or Canadian L/H.

So you could have Kawaguchi / Smirnov with 22 or 24 points, Russian M/T with 22 or 24 points, Ukrainian V/M with 22 or 24 points, and McL/B with 22 or 24 points. The last two spots will go to two of these teams.

slutskayafan21 · Oct 30, 2007

chuckm said:
The GPF this year is going to be a little strange.

SA: Medalists D/D, P/T and B/L. The Russians who finished 3rd are unlikely to return for a second event since they have the JGPF in December.

SC: Likely medalists: D/D, S/S, Russian K/S (in no particular order). Even a bronze medal puts D/D in the GPF.

CC: Likely medalists: P/T, McL/B, bronze up for grabs. P/T make the GPF.

TEB: Likely medalists: Zhangs, Russian M/T, P/T (3rd event) or Ukrainian V/M.

CoR: Likely medalists: S/S, Z/Z, K/S or M/T. This is an interesting one. The Russians may have taken one or both of their teams out of the GPF. S/S should make the final and maybe Z/Z, too, leaving 2 spots.

NHK: D/D and S/S return for a second event, and will probably win G/S. Bronze will go to McL/B, Ukrainian V/M or Canadian L/H.

So you could have Kawaguchi / Smirnov with 22 or 24 points, Russian M/T with 22 or 24 points, Ukrainian V/M with 22 or 24 points, and McL/B with 22 or 24 points. The last two spots will go to two of these teams.

NHK is actually the 3rd event for Dube/Davison.

I would actually say M/T will have a very hard time making it with their assignments, and are likely to have only between 18 and 22 points. Pang/Tong and Zhang/Zhang likely battling for gold and silver in TEB, which leaves M/T and V/M battling for bronze. Then at COR you likely have Z/Z and S/S battling for gold, leaving M/T and K/S battling for bronze. Even if they beat out both V/M at TEB, and K/S at COR, they still need to beat atleast 1 of P/T at TEB, Z/Z at either TEB or COR, or S/S at COR to gain more then 22 points.

Volosozhar/Morozov will likely be battling for 3rd at TEB like I mentioned. Then at NHK D/D and S/S will probably finish 1st and 2nd in some order. That leaves V/M battling for 3rd like you said. So really they too are likely to only be between 18 and 22 points.

Kawaguchi/Smirnov probably have the best chance since they are probably fairly safe to be atleast 3rd at Skate Canada, but it will be hard for them to earn more then 22 points too since they are probably only battling for 3rd at COR.

K/S and V/M have better chances I think then M/T though since there is probably a better shot of 1 of those beating out Dube/Davison, which each get a shot to do and finish higher then 3rd, then beating out any of Z/Z, P/T, and S/S.

You are right that with their assignments, Keauna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker have an excellent chance to make it.

oxade21 · Oct 30, 2007

I don't see D/D winning over (ready and in-shape) S/S or K./S with 2X SBS jumps. They need more difficult content. But as we witnessed anything can happen.

slutskayafan21 · Oct 30, 2007

oxade21 said:
I don't see D/D winning over (ready and in-shape) S/S or K./S with 2X SBS jumps. They need more difficult content. But as we witnessed anything can happen.

I would not expect Dube/Davison to lose to Kawaguchi/Smirnov here. I would be pretty surprised if they did.

chuckm · Oct 30, 2007

slutskayafan21 said:
I would not expect Dube/Davison to lose to Kawaguchi/Smirnov here. I would be pretty surprised if they did.

Never say never. If the Pairs judging panel is packed with former SSRs, it wouldn't be impossible at all for K/S to beat D/D. Look at the Skate America dance panel: RUS, AZE, GEO. Sure helped Fraser/Lukanin to score 15 points higher than they did at Worlds 2007.

K/S finished less than a point behind D/D at Worlds 2007, and they had been skating together for only a few months at the time. With 7 more months of intensive training, K/S may have improved drastically since then.

oxade21 · Oct 30, 2007

chuckm said:
Never say never. If the Pairs judging panel is packed with former SSRs, it wouldn't be impossible at all for K/S to beat D/D. Look at the Skate America dance panel: RUS, AZE, GEO. Sure helped Fraser/Lukanin to score 15 points higher than they did at Worlds 2007.

K/S finished less than a point behind D/D at Worlds 2007, and they had been skating together for only a few months at the time. With 7 more months of intensive training, K/S may have improved drastically since then.

I agree, but I would not cite SSRs judges as the main reason in fact I find the whole Fraser/Lukanin argument ridiculous, How do you know if the scores of those judges were counted? I could make similar point saying that D/D have home advantage over K/S and even S/S.
I saw first and second outing of K/S this year and while they are far from being perfect, their program is COP designed and have much more difficulty to it. IF executed cleanly, they can beat both S/S and D/D.

Ptichka · Oct 30, 2007

Tinymavy15 said:
S&S play to the new system, but they are not that consistant.

I think most of their inconsistencies had to do with all the legal problems with Steuer. Now that those are behind them, and the creep has been allowed to remain their official coach, I expect them to do much better.

skatingfan04 · Oct 30, 2007

I think that D/D could have an outside shot at gold here. I never would have predicted this time last week that they would win SA, and look what happened there. If you want to get techhnical, Pang/Tong are ranked higher that S/S, and D/D have beaten P/T. Of course, this means nothing at all, but they have ashot at least. I find D/D to be fairly consistant. They were VERY consistant during the 05/06 season, and struggledd last season. Then again, they barely had a season, and what they did have they were injured for. He tends to be more consistant of the SBS jumps that she is, but given the amount of injuries she's have in the past 3 yrs, mostly concearning her knees, i'm not surprised. I think it will come down to which team skates the cleanest. In terms of PCS's the SA judges really appreciated D/D FS and the scores stated that, so there may be less of a gap between them and S/S than there was last season.

slutskayafan21 · Oct 30, 2007

chuckm said:
Never say never. If the Pairs judging panel is packed with former SSRs, it wouldn't be impossible at all for K/S to beat D/D. Look at the Skate America dance panel: RUS, AZE, GEO. Sure helped Fraser/Lukanin to score 15 points higher than they did at Worlds 2007.

K/S finished less than a point behind D/D at Worlds 2007, and they had been skating together for only a few months at the time. With 7 more months of intensive training, K/S may have improved drastically since then.

Yeah I guess it could happen but I would be dissapointed if it did. I think it would be a step backwards for them if they did not come atleast 2nd here, and particularly if they only came 3rd since they didnt skate well. I would hope they are going to skate better then Skate America where they didnt even skate close to their best.

oleada · Oct 31, 2007

S&S play to the new system, but they are not that consistant. If Dube and Davidson can skate like they did at Skate America they have a good chance. Don't forget thet Pang/Tong are worlds champions and that Dube and Davidson will be skating at home ice in Canada!

I don't know...Dubé & Davison skated well, but they made plenty of mistakes: she messed up the salchow in the short and a hand down on the throw and in the long, she fell on the throw and doubled the salchow.

f you want to get techhnical, Pang/Tong are ranked higher that S/S, and D/D have beaten P/T.

If you want to get technical, by the ISU rankings, S/S are the highest ranked team in the world right now. Also, remember that Pang has been ill this summer - she was sick at Chinese nationals as well.

D&D are very good, but unless S/S make serious mistakes, I can't see them beating them. I think they're likely to beat out K/S, but I can see K/S doing well also. It's a tough field!

As for the Ukrainians - I hope they'll do well this season. She's wonderful, and they have all the big tricks and technical ability to be on top. They've also been injured a lot in the past two seasons, so hopefully they'll finally be able to compete this season. They beat out D/D at Worlds this year.

Sure helped Fraser/Lukanin to score 15 points higher than they did at Worlds 2007.[

Or maybe they have actually made strides forward? A team moving forward doesn't have to be being pushed by a judge.

chuckm · Oct 31, 2007

oleada said:
Or maybe they [Fraser/Lukanin] have actually made strides forward? A team moving forward doesn't have to be being pushed by a judge.

If they were a young team, a sudden 15-point spurt would not be at all unusual. But Kristin Fraser is 27 and Igor Lukanin is 31. They have been competing at Worlds since 2001, and their highest Worlds placement was 13th in 2005. They were 14th in 2006 and 16th in 2007. Given their ages and their gradual decline, a 15-point score boost is startling.

Dube/Davison's chances?

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

oleada

lilybear

Joesitz (RIP)

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

chuckm

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

oxade21

Match Penalty

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

chuckm

oxade21

Match Penalty

Ptichka

Forum translator

skatingfan04

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

oleada

chuckm

Similar threads

Connect with us