Ladies Olympic Gold and statistics

krenseby · Nov 9, 2007

Sometime after Shizuka's win at the last Olympics, I wrote a post that explained some trends that all previous Olympic Gold Medalists in the ladies field share.

The one trend that I spotted among all Olympic GMs from the 1990s is that the OGM winner medaled for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.

Now, I'll take that statistic and speculate about the 2010 Olympic medalist. First of all, the statistics disfavor Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando as candidates for Olympic Gold. (They will not medal for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.) On the contrary, Caroline Zhang is primed to medal for the first time in 2009, so she has more chance for Olympic Gold than all of the ladies above. If Mirai Nagaisu medals within the next two years, than her chances for Olympic Gold will also exceed those of Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando.

But here's something that might surprise you. The one skater who has a really great shot at Olympic Gold is Yukari Nakano. She is already in the top five at Worlds and arguably improving. If she improves further and medals in either 2008 or 2009, she is statistically favored to have a chance at Olympic Gold.

attyfan · Nov 9, 2007

Interesting.

Tinymavy15 · Nov 9, 2007

I always thought Nakano was very good, she even tried the 3 axel a few times. The leg wrap REALLy seems to hurt her however, more so than it should. She is a lovelt skater and has very god spins. But i would say Caroline Zhang, or for some wierd reaosn I have this hunch about Carolina Kostner. She has this habit of skating really well once in a blue moon, usually near the end of the season. Caroline or Carolina. wierd.

Wrlmy · Nov 9, 2007

Tinymavy15 said:
I always thought Nakano was very good, she even tried the 3 axel a few times. The leg wrap REALLy seems to hurt her however, more so than it should. She is a lovelt skater and has very god spins. But i would say Caroline Zhang, or for some wierd reaosn I have this hunch about Carolina Kostner. She has this habit of skating really well once in a blue moon, usually near the end of the season. Caroline or Carolina. wierd.

But, Kostner has medaled before. Bronze at 2005 worlds.

krenseby · Nov 9, 2007

Wrlmy said:
But, Kostner has medaled before. Bronze at 2005 worlds.

True, but for the benefit of Kostner, we can pretend that it was in fact Kwan who medaled in 2005 and Carolina got 4th place.

Kostner's win over Kwan was based on Kwan's low scores in the qualifying round, if I remember well. ( I don't remember that well actually, but that's what I seem to recollect.) Now that the qualifying round has been eliminated, we can consider its scores to be unfair and irrelevant and declare Kwan to be the 2005 Bronze Medalist. For Carolina Kostner's sake of course, to give her a statistically better chance for Olympic Gold!

bekalc · Nov 9, 2007

Well I don't know about that. Wasn't Lipinski the reigning world champion going into the Olympics? And she placed 15th or something like that the year before...

In fact, until Sarah Hughes/Arakawa, in the ladies the reigning world champion almost always won the Olympics. And the reigning world champion for the men never won...

I think the one statistic that is important to the judges, is I don't think it's ever really happened where a non World medalist in Ladies has won the Olympics. I think the judges at least want a girl whose managed some kind of world medal.

krenseby · Nov 9, 2007

bekalc said:
Well I don't know about that. Wasn't Lipinski the reigning world champion going into the Olympics? And she placed 15th or something like that the year before...

In fact, until Sarah Hughes/Arakawa, in the ladies the reigning world champion almost always won the Olympics. And the reigning world champion for the men never won...

I think the one statistic that is important to the judges, is I don't think it's ever really happened where a non World medalist in Ladies has won the Olympics. I think the judges at least want a girl whose managed some kind of world medal.

All of what you said is consistent with my statistics. Lipinski medaled for the first time within the time span of two Worlds right before the Olympics (97 Worlds.)

bekalc · Nov 9, 2007

krenseby said:
All of what you said is consistent with my statistics. Lipinski medaled for the first time within the time span of two Worlds right before the Olympics (97 Worlds.)

True, but you forget that 4/5 girls in that area where teenagers.... Also, I think you forget that Kristi/Sarah/and Shiz were around for a long time. competiting wise.. Sarah had been to something like 3 world championships. Kristi had rose through the ranks and competed in a lot worlds, so did Shiz. Tara and Oksana were the only two rapid risers, and in Oksana's case it was more the luck of having a week field that anything else.

I guess the point I'm making is that I think Yu-na and Mao are going to have an advantage over the younger crowd just because they have been competiting on the senior circuit longer and have been dealing with intense pressure longer...

krenseby · Nov 9, 2007

bekalc said:
True, but you forget that 4/5 girls in that area where teenagers.... Also, I think you forget that Kristi/Sarah/and Shiz were around for a long time. competiting wise.. Sarah had been to something like 3 world championships. Kristi had rose through the ranks and competed in a lot worlds, so did Shiz. Tara and Oksana were the only two rapid risers, and in Oksana's case it was more the luck of having a week field that anything else.

I guess the point I'm making is that I think Yu-na and Mao are going to have an advantage over the younger crowd just because they have been competiting on the senior circuit longer and have been dealing with intense pressure longer...

But even those who have not been rapid risers still medaled for the first time within the timespan of two Worlds before the Olympics. Shizuka and Kristie are a good example. So the one non "rapid-riser" who has a statistically good chance of winning Olympic Gold is Yukari Nakano. Or Joannie Rochette...

Actually, it's kinda funny if Rochette medals in these next two years, I will declare her a very likely contender for Olympic gold. But the chance of Rochette getting a World medal within the next two years is rather small. (Possible, yes....likely..no.)

ks777 · Nov 10, 2007

I don't know.. if you look at the last three gold medalist's name, they have something in common.

tARA Lipinski
sARhA Hughes
Shizuka ARAkawa

I think the next olympic champion will be someone who's name is like Dara, Kara, Mara, Marai, Darakova and etc..or maybe Mira or Mirai..

skates · Nov 10, 2007

ks777 said:
I don't know.. if you look at the last three gold medalist's name, they have something in common.

tARA Lipinski
sARhA Hughes
Shizuka ARAkawa

I think the next olympic champion will be someone who's name is like Dara, Kara, Mara, Marai, Darakova and etc..or maybe Mira or Mirai..

or cAROline zhang,mIRAi nagasu

blue dog · Nov 10, 2007

ks777 said:
I don't know.. if you look at the last three gold medalist's name, they have something in common.

tARA Lipinski
sARhA Hughes
Shizuka ARAkawa

I think the next olympic champion will be someone who's name is like Dara, Kara, Mara, Marai, Darakova and etc..or maybe Mira or Mirai..

Good luck, Mira Leung! she has a lot to improve upon, but she has taken steps in the right direction. Let's hope she stays on the long and uphill road.

Or, linguistically, you can go with someone who has either their first or last name ending in an AH sound... that leaves us with:

Carolin-ah Kostner
Mao Asad-ah
Yu-n-ah Kim

Of course, in the end, with injuries being the way they are, and fluke flubs (the triple/triple combination in the short that can turn into triple/single)--which of these ladies will even be in the final group at the Olympics?

kandidy · Nov 10, 2007

ks777 said:
I don't know.. if you look at the last three gold medalist's name, they have something in common.

tARA Lipinski
sARhA Hughes
Shizuka ARAkawa

I think the next olympic champion will be someone who's name is like Dara, Kara, Mara, Marai, Darakova and etc..or maybe Mira or Mirai..

:chorus:

pohatta · Nov 11, 2007

ks777 said:
I don't know.. if you look at the last three gold medalist's name, they have something in common.

tARA Lipinski
sARhA Hughes
Shizuka ARAkawa

I think the next olympic champion will be someone who's name is like Dara, Kara, Mara, Marai, Darakova and etc..or maybe Mira or Mirai..

LAuRA Lepistö.

sillylionlove · Nov 13, 2007

Some one has way to much time on their hands!!

:rofl:

eleonora.d · Nov 13, 2007

krenseby said:
True, but for the benefit of Kostner, we can pretend that it was in fact Kwan who medaled in 2005 and Carolina got 4th place.

Kostner's win over Kwan was based on Kwan's low scores in the qualifying round, if I remember well. ( I don't remember that well actually, but that's what I seem to recollect.) Now that the qualifying round has been eliminated, we can consider its scores to be unfair and irrelevant and declare Kwan to be the 2005 Bronze Medalist. For Carolina Kostner's sake of course, to give her a statistically better chance for Olympic Gold!

This has no logic. What if Slutskaja did not skate last in Turin?
Unfortunately , competitive results do not come from "if" and "but" as we say in Italy. That's the way it was. Plus, as much as I like Michelle and I think she was on of the last real Champions in this sport, I have the impression she didn't ever conform to the new judging system

Ladies Olympic Gold and statistics

krenseby

attyfan

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Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

Wrlmy

krenseby

bekalc

krenseby

bekalc

krenseby

ks777

skates

blue dog

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kandidy

pohatta

sillylionlove

eleonora.d

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