Sometime after Shizuka's win at the last Olympics, I wrote a post that explained some trends that all previous Olympic Gold Medalists in the ladies field share.
The one trend that I spotted among all Olympic GMs from the 1990s is that the OGM winner medaled for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.
Now, I'll take that statistic and speculate about the 2010 Olympic medalist. First of all, the statistics disfavor Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando as candidates for Olympic Gold. (They will not medal for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.) On the contrary, Caroline Zhang is primed to medal for the first time in 2009, so she has more chance for Olympic Gold than all of the ladies above. If Mirai Nagaisu medals within the next two years, than her chances for Olympic Gold will also exceed those of Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando.
But here's something that might surprise you. The one skater who has a really great shot at Olympic Gold is Yukari Nakano. She is already in the top five at Worlds and arguably improving. If she improves further and medals in either 2008 or 2009, she is statistically favored to have a chance at Olympic Gold.
The one trend that I spotted among all Olympic GMs from the 1990s is that the OGM winner medaled for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.
Now, I'll take that statistic and speculate about the 2010 Olympic medalist. First of all, the statistics disfavor Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando as candidates for Olympic Gold. (They will not medal for the first time in the two Worlds preceding the Olympics.) On the contrary, Caroline Zhang is primed to medal for the first time in 2009, so she has more chance for Olympic Gold than all of the ladies above. If Mirai Nagaisu medals within the next two years, than her chances for Olympic Gold will also exceed those of Kim, Asada, Meissner, and Ando.
But here's something that might surprise you. The one skater who has a really great shot at Olympic Gold is Yukari Nakano. She is already in the top five at Worlds and arguably improving. If she improves further and medals in either 2008 or 2009, she is statistically favored to have a chance at Olympic Gold.