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Thread: Zhang's GPF only if Ando wins NHK / Prediction on Who to Torino

  1. #1
    nefertiti..reincarnate
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    Zhang's GPF only if Ando wins NHK / Prediction on Who to Torino

    Logically there are many possibilities, but here, let's think that the next medals for the following ladies are fixed.
    Mao: Gold or Silver
    Meissner: Silver or Gold
    YuNaKim: Gold
    These three go to Torino for sure, so three more slots.

    Ando may medal again but the color unsure, sums up to 28 or 26 or 24 GP points.
    Silver is enough for her. If Bronze, it'll depend on Meier's score at NHK.

    Rochette meets Nakano again and if N beats R, Nakano goes to Torino with 26 points.
    If R beats N, both is almost certain to go to Torino when Ando wins NHK.
    If Kostner wins NHK, either one of R or N goes.

    Kostner may medal again but the color unsure, sums up to 26 or 24 or 22 GP points.
    If Gold she's in, which probably makes Zhang out because of tie-breaking scores.
    If Silver, which probably means Ando's Gold, makes both Caros 24 points so Zhang gets a chance when Rochette is out.
    If K is Silver and A is Bronze, Zhang won't come out of tie-break.

    So it's only when Ando winning the NHK and Nakano beating Rochette both happen that Zhang will be in Torino.
    Last edited by sorcerer; 11-11-2007 at 10:46 AM. Reason: Was sleepy and made a miscalcutation>corrected?

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    I believe last year, 26 was the magic number. I believe, this year like last year will show 24 as several ties. If one of those numbers is a 15, that will do it.

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    Custom Title bekalc's Avatar
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    I think it will be really difficult for Caroline to make it.....

    What Caroline needs is for Nakano to beat out Joannie at Cup of Russia. Frankly, I think that's highly likely.

    If Joannie beats out Nakano.. Then I think both girls will take Caroline out of the running ,because well Caroline's score isn't going to be that hard to overcome. They both have a 10 point lead on Caroline from Skate Canada. (And well Caroline's score from China, is hardly overwhelming.)

    Then, there's Sarah Meier and Kostner. I think that it's totally likely that one of those girls will match Zhang's silver and bronze medal. And once again Zhang's scores aren't going to be that hard to beat.

    Zhang really needs Wagner to beat Meier in Paris. Because as lovely a person as Kostner seems to be, you can kind of count on her to not do so well in the long at NHK.

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    Tanguera feraina's Avatar
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    Top 3 definitely in: Asada, Kim, Meissner

    Ando will probably get gold at NHK, very little competition, just an inconsistent Meier and an even more inconsistent Kostner. Actually, I expect Kostner to be out with 2 bronzes, and Meier to be on the bubble with S+B (after Mao & Kimmie @ TEB). Kostner is incredibly talented, but worse than Cohen when it comes to nerves.

    If Nakano beats Rochette, the latter is out with 2 bronzes. If she loses to Rochette, then their two scores will tie with Caroline's, possibly along with Meier's, and total points will decide.

    So, assuming the most likely scenario at the top -- Asada & Meissner split G & S @ TEB, Kim G @ CoR, Ando G @ NHK -- then the things to watch are:
    1) does Meier get B @ TEB (if not, she's out; Wagner may surprise with 3/3)?
    2) does Nakano beat Rochette @ CoR (if yes, Nakano in & Rochette out)?
    3) which of Meier and Kostner gets bronze behind Ando (whoever 3rd is out)?

    So the most promising scenario for Caroline to be in is if:
    1) Wagner beats Meier for bronze @ TEB
    2) Nakano beats Rochette for silver @ CoR
    3) Kostner beats Meier for silver @ NHK

    If any of these things not happen, then Caroline can only be in if all the other S+B skaters have low-scoring second skates.
    Last edited by feraina; 11-10-2007 at 06:52 PM.

  5. #5
    Custom Title bekalc's Avatar
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    The scary fact is who knows about Ando? If Ando skates like she skated in Skate America, Meir could beat her for the gold in NHK. (Atlhough Ando did have a downgraded jump and no triple/triple so who knows. But Meier has beaten Ando before (it took a disasterous skate, but still it happened)

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    Tanguera feraina's Avatar
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    All scores, both TES (b/c of downgrades and 'e' markings) and the PCS are depressed this year compared to past seasons, so I don't think past results are especially good predictors of upcoming results. For instance, Meier scored 111 at SA '06, her PB, and that contained a popped 2A and no 3/3, and so-so 'presentation.' I think Ando's SA '07 performance would beat that, even though for Ando that wasn't a great performance.

    But it's true, who knows whether Ando @ NHK in front of an enthusiastic home audience (i.e. pressure, pressure, pressure) would skate even as well as at SA, she may have an off day like at the last GPF after two stellar GP events.

    The results of the upcoming GP's should be very interesting.

    If Rochette beats Nakano @ TEB, and both get high scores, then I think Caroline can forget about GPF this year.

    ETA: though of course there's always the possibility of injuries/withdrawals, so that can always change things around.
    Last edited by feraina; 11-10-2007 at 07:10 PM.

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    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    I think the most likely lineup is Asada (1st & 1st), Kim (1st & 1st), Ando (1st & 2nd), Meissner (1st & 2nd), Nakano (2nd & 2nd).

    Rochette's out, Meier gets third in France, then the whole thing comes down to a nailbiter at NHK. Whoever gets second between Meier and Kostner will probably edge OO for the last spot.

    Looks like Caroline had bad luck in being at both the underrotation fest at Skate America and the wet ice fiasco (or whatever it was) at Cup of China.

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    Sestriere 1999 ChrisH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    I believe last year, 26 was the magic number. I believe, this year like last year will show 24 as several ties. If one of those numbers is a 15, that will do it.
    The dispersing of the top skaters this year impacts that, though. Last year, the points were as follows: 28, 28, 26, 26, 26, 24; 24, 24, 24, 18, 16, etc. This year, since the very top skaters aren't going head-to-head as much, most likely they'll gobble up more of the points that the bubble skaters might have gotten. So this year, it'll likely be something like 30, 30, 28, 28, 26, 24; 24, 22, 22, etc. It's true, though, if Rochette wins her rematch against Nakano, they'll be another logjam at 24.

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    Sestriere 1999 ChrisH's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    I think it will be really difficult for Caroline to make it.....
    Perhaps, but of all the names you mention, which lady do you think most likely will be lucky number six? Things looked much worse for Caroline last week. Getting silver is no surprise, but I didn't imagine Kostner being 12.48 points and Suguri being 19.21 points behind Caroline.

    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    What Caroline needs is for Nakano to beat out Joannie at Cup of Russia. Frankly, I think that's highly likely.


    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    Then, there's Sarah Meier and Kostner. I think that it's totally likely that one of those girls will match Zhang's silver and bronze medal. And once again Zhang's scores aren't going to be that hard to beat.
    If Kostner gets the silver, she still needs at least 165.83 points to outscore Caroline. That would be a 21.97 point improvement over her Cup of China performance. Meier totaled 328.18 in her two events last year. That's not much more that Caroline's 309.69 and as mentioned, the scoring is tougher this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    Zhang really needs Wagner to beat Meier in Paris. Because as lovely a person as Kostner seems to be, you can kind of count on her to not do so well in the long at NHK.
    Suguri, Sebestyen, Czisny, Poykio, Sawada, and Liang can also be spoilers. There are some advantages to being at the front.

  10. #10
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    these are the 4 that i know will go
    Mao Asada -wins both of her events
    Yu-Na Kim-wins both of her events
    Kimmie Meissner-win at Skate America most likely a 2nd at france
    Miki Ando- 2nd at Skate America and mostly like a Win at NHK

    the other two spots are up for grabs but more likely
    Yukari Nakano (with two 2nds Skate Canada and Cup of Russia)
    Carolina Kostner with a 3rd at Cup of China and a Second at NHK.

    The reason for that is because they finished in the top 6 at worlds. With the skate Caroline Kostner had and she still finished on the podium with all her mistakes she had-leads me to believe they want her in the GPFinal. She should have been off the podium.

    Would I like to see Caroline Zhang in the GPFinal. Yes. Because of the low scores they gave her-we will have to see.
    the other skaters that have an outside shot are:

    Caroline Zhang
    Joannie Rochette-with a 3rd at Skate Canada/2nd at Cup of Russia(based on more overall points)i think
    Akiko Suzuki
    Sarah Meier
    Fumie Suguri she has to win Cup of Russia .with enough points or based on the
    of fact the 15 + 9=24. she would get in i think based on her win over 2nd & 3rd place 11+13=24.
    Mira Leung with an outside shot. she would have to win France. which i can't see her winning over Mao, Kimmie and beating Sarah Meier.

  11. #11
    nefertiti..reincarnate
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    New faces in the GPF isn't bad IMO.
    (Below are merely supposations among the probable.)

    I had imagined the following two cases of Zhang coming out of tie-break.
    The point is, if you suppose Ando lower, the circumstance gets harder for Zhang.

    For the remaining 3:

    Ando_____SA__13__NHK_15 =28
    Nakano___SC__13__CoR_13 =26
    Zhang____SA__11__CoC_13 =24
    Kostner__CoC_11__NHK_13 =24
    Meier____TEB_11__NHK_11 =22
    Rochette_SC__11__CoR_11 =22

    Ando_____SA__13__NHK_15 =28
    Nakano___SC__13__CoR_13 =26
    Zhang____SA__11__CoC_13 =24
    Meier____TEB_11__NHK_13 =24
    Kostner__CoC_11__NHK_11 =22
    Rochette_SC__11__CoR_11 =22

    Feraina added a imaginary condition that would make Zhang surer, but should be revised as this to make it even surer.

    Ando_____SA__13__NHK_15 =28
    Nakano___SC__13__CoR_13 =26
    Zhang____SA__11__CoC_13 =24
    Kostner__CoC_11__NHK_11 =22
    Meier____TEB__9__NHK_13 =22
    Rochette_SC__11__CoR_11 =22

    Wagner to beat Meier at TEB could also be as hard as Leung beating Meier.
    Same goes to Sawada, though she has a high ISU ranking.

    Quote Originally Posted by feraina View Post
    So the most promising scenario for Caroline to be in is if:
    1) Wagner beats Meier for bronze @ TEB
    2) Nakano beats Rochette for silver @ CoR
    3) Kostner beats Meier for silver @ NHK
    Last edited by sorcerer; 11-11-2007 at 10:45 AM.

  12. #12
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Hey Sorcerer - Where will you put Meissner? She already has 15 points. All she needs is a bronze to be in a 26 tie with the highest score breaking the tie. Do you not think this?

    Zhang is with 24 and definitely heading to a tie.

    Hughes is out.

    Skaters who need a Win to be possibly included in the Finals: Rochette, Kostner

    Skaters who will most likely be in Finals definitely if they gold or silver in their next GP: Meissner, Nakano, Asada, Kim, Ando,

    Take the last 5 I listed as success stories, then we are looking at 1 more. Which one ? Zhang? Rochette? Kostner? Meier?, Sebestyen? IMO, we have to wait and see. A win by any of them will more than likely break any tie.

    Keep your eyes on Meier in Japan. Her toughest competition is Ando and Kostner.

    Joe

  13. #13
    nefertiti..reincarnate
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Hey Sorcerer - Where will you put Meissner? She already has 15 points. All she needs is a bronze to be in a 26 tie with the highest score breaking the tie. Do you not think this?
    Like I wrote, it's "For the remaining 3"
    Remember, I started by stating:
    "Mao: Gold or Silver
    "Meissner: Silver or Gold
    "YuNaKim: Gold
    "These three go to Torino for sure, so three more slots."

    I still think 8 for GPF won't necessarily take away all the thrill out of the GP series.... but maybe only for ladies.

  14. #14
    Tanguera feraina's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Hey Sorcerer - Where will you put Meissner?
    I think Sorcerer already counted Meissner among the top 3 definitely going (Asada, Kim, Meissner).

    Skaters who need a Win to be possibly included in the Finals: Rochette, Kostner
    Kostner needs a win because her CoC score is so low. Rochette only needs to beat Nakano with a decent score for the silver at TEB.

    Meier is a total, total unknown. Has anyone seen _anything_ of her this season? Any clips, interviews?
    Last edited by feraina; 11-11-2007 at 12:26 PM.

  15. #15
    Tanguera feraina's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sorcerer View Post
    I still think 8 for GPF won't necessarily take away all the thrill out of the GP series.... but maybe only for ladies.
    I think for the ladies it would be great. But can you imagine for pairs?!

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