Zhang's GPF only if Ando wins NHK / Prediction on Who to Torino

Kypma · Nov 11, 2007

feraina said:
Joannie might still make the GPF if she steps it up & Yukari falters a bit. Yukari isn't really known consistency either.

I think that even if Caroline makes GPF, she will face extremely stiff competition, and may place dead last! Of course it's no shame at all even to place 6th in the GPF with such a strong field, but it can't be a confidence boost either after Mao & Yu-na both won the GPF in their first senior year.

Or she could look at it as, compared to so many veteran skaters, she made it to the final, and be very proud of that accomplishment... it all depends on the way of seeing the situation, the whole half-full / half-empty idea.

Kypma

PS actually I don't know how to see it, because, in the last 2 years, the reigning world JUNIOR champion won the SENIOR Grand Prix Final... I wonder if she has that in mind? If so, then yes it would be disappointing to come in last...

bekalc · Nov 11, 2007

Kypma said:
Or she could look at it as, compared to so many veteran skaters, she made it to the final, and be very proud of that accomplishment... it all depends on the way of seeing the situation, the whole half-full / half-empty idea.

Kypma

PS actually I don't know how to see it, because, in the last 2 years, the reigning world JUNIOR champion won the SENIOR Grand Prix Final... I wonder if she has that in mind? If so, then yes it would be disappointing to come in last...

See, that was kind of my fears for Caroline, was that she'd be expected to do as well as Mao and Yu-na did... And I think that Mao and Yu-na aren't Caroline. Yu-na was two years older, and quite frankly was helped by the fact that it was a splatfest.

and Mao well Mao was Mao and she really didn't have that much competition in that one (Irina decided to phone in and not even do a triple/triple.

Kypma · Nov 11, 2007

bekalc said:
See, that was kind of my fears for Caroline, was that she'd be expected to do as well as Mao and Yu-na did... And I think that Mao and Yu-na aren't Caroline. Yu-na was two years older, and quite frankly was helped by the fact that it was a splatfest.

and Mao well Mao was Mao and she really didn't have that much competition in that one (Irina decided to phone in and not even do a triple/triple.

Also, last year, wasn't the Japanese Team suffering from stomach flu or something, causing them to have sub-par performances? Although Yu-Na had a back problem, so maybe it evened out... Wow, so many hypotheses, I'm getting myself confused!

I just wish for Caroline to have good programs and perform them to the best of her ability, and then I think she can be really proud of herself

Kypma

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 11, 2007

I think we should wait patiently and see what the next 3 GPs show us on placements.

Joe

bekalc · Nov 11, 2007

Kypma said:
Also, last year, wasn't the Japanese Team suffering from stomach flu or something, causing them to have sub-par performances? Although Yu-Na had a back problem, so maybe it evened out... Wow, so many hypotheses, I'm getting myself confused! I just wish for Caroline to have good programs and perform them to the best of her ability, and then I think she can be really proud of herself

Kypma

I think there was a stomach problem, but who knows...But yeah even I the big Yu-na fan will say that Yu-na lucked out by well the splat fest.

feraina · Nov 16, 2007

Joesitz said:
I think we should wait patiently and see what the next 3 GPs show us on placements.

Hmm, still a little early in TEB to be speculating too much. But one thing to note is that scores are definitely still quite low at this point in the season. IIRC, the top SP scores in the ladies event at TEB are actually lower than all three previous events.

Mao & Kimmie are both on course to qualify for GPF. But if Meier were to pull ahead of Glebova and Ashley Wagner for the bronze, she will have to skate a really stellar LP to go with her bronze in order to hope for GPF. Elene & Ashley have no chance for GPF in any case, even if they get the bronze.

Re-watching Miki at SA, I suddenly had this fear that she might pull out with injury at some point this season. She *really* doesn't look happy/comfortable on the ice. It must be so grueling and miserable to be training at the top level when you don't have the bodily comfortable and peace of mind to go with it... I'm guessing that she'll go ahead with NHK even in her current state, just because her competition there will be so weak. But then she may realize just before GPF that she's after all in no fit condition to compete with the best, that it's better to rest and get ready for Worlds than to tough it out at GPF, aggravate her injuries, and place lowly and take a hit to her world champion image.

sorcerer · Nov 17, 2007

feraina said:
Re-watching Miki at SA, I suddenly had this fear that she might pull out with injury at some point this season. ... I'm guessing that she'll go ahead with NHK even in her current state, just because her competition there will be so weak. But then she may realize just before GPF that she's after all in no fit condition to compete with the best, that it's better to rest and get ready for Worlds than to tough it out at GPF, aggravate her injuries, and place lowly and take a hit to her world champion image.

I think the JSF won't allow her to withdraw.

BTW Arakawa placed only 9th in the next Worlds as defending champion. Shi-chan's soul sister Miki wont care about the color of her medal, she'll be happy if she feels she did her very best, I imagine.

feraina · Nov 17, 2007

sorcerer said:
BTW Arakawa placed only 9th in the next Worlds as defending champion.

And she almost quit after that season, right?

Kypma · Nov 17, 2007

feraina said:
And she almost quit after that season, right?

I think she meant to quit after her 2004 Worlds win, but then people around her suggested she stayed for another season, perhaps up to the Olympics. She refused to quit after 2005 Worlds because she didn't want to end her amateur career with a bad performance; no matter of the placement, she wanted to skate her best before retiring. I'm fairly certain that she did do her best at the Olympics, and has the Olympic Gold Medal to add to her joy

Kypma

feraina · Nov 17, 2007

So, Caroline's chances seem to be slightly boosted since Sarah Meier placed 4th. Miki is likely to take the gold @ NHK despite her injury, so Meier is basically out. Now it comes down to CoR and the show-down between Nakano & Rochette!

Mathman · Nov 17, 2007

Worst case scenario for Caroline:

Cup of Russia:

1. Suguri
2. Rochette (with big score)
3. Nakano (with big score)
4. Kim

NHK:

1. Meier
2. Kostner (with big score)
3. Ando (with big score)

Then all of these seven, plus Asada and Meissner, will finish ahead of OO, and she will come in tenth.

R.D. · Nov 17, 2007

If by Kim, you mean Yuna, no WAY is she getting 4th at COR :rofl:

bekalc · Nov 17, 2007

I think a very realistic bad break for Caroline would be at Cup of Russia:

Kim, Yu-na

Joannie Rochette

Yukari Nakano.

Because Joannie and Yukari are more than likely going to easily surpass Caroline's total scores, no matter how they place, so it means both would match Caroline's medals and both would be in over her.

So then Mao, Yu-na, Meissner, Yukari, and Joannie would be ahead of Caroline, and well then there's Miki/Caroline/Meier, and if any of them win (or Miki places second or third) they are more than likely to be in over Caroline.

Mathman · Nov 17, 2007

^ I guess that brings it back to the title of this thread, LOL. Caroline has to hope that Miki wins NHK (with Meier second over Kostner, while Nakano beats Rochette at Cup of Russia). :yes:

ChrisH · Nov 17, 2007

Mathman said:
Then all of these seven, plus Asada and Meissner, will finish ahead of OO, and she will come in tenth.

OO can also still finish third.

Yeah, the ladies GP standings have been updated. http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2007/gpsladies.htm

Here's my estimate of the current qualification odds in the order in which the ladies are currently ranked:
1. Asada 100%
2. Meissner 100%
3. Zhang 50%

party2:, with silver and bronze medals, catch her if you can)
4. Wagner 0%
5. Hughes 0%
6. Kim 99%
7. Leung 0%
8. Nakano 87%
9. Ando 95%
10. Rochette 33%
11. Kostner 25%
12. Meier 5%
13. Suguri 5%
14. Glebova 0%
15. Sebestyen 1%
16+. Everyone else. 0%
That adds up 600% = 6 spots. It's easier to do it this way. If you feel Rochette's chances are better, you can make her chances like 40% and decrease the chances of others by a total of 7%.

With regards to Kim 1st and Rochette 2nd at Moscow, if that happens then there's a good chance that either Suguri or Sebestyen will finish 3rd ahead of Nakano, thus still preserving that 6th spot for Caroline.

sorcerer · Nov 18, 2007

ChrisH said:
With regards to Kim 1st and Rochette 2nd at Moscow, if that happens then there's a good chance that either Suguri or Sebestyen will finish 3rd ahead of Nakano, thus still preserving that 6th spot for Caroline.

That only happens when Meier at NHK comes second over Kostner or when the podium is something like Lepisto-Meier-Poykio.

bekalc · Nov 18, 2007

ChrisH said:
With regards to Kim 1st and Rochette 2nd at Moscow, if that happens then there's a good chance that either Suguri or Sebestyen will finish 3rd ahead of Nakano, thus still preserving that 6th spot for Caroline.

I don't see Nakano finishing third, I don't think she's placed lower than 3rd at a GP event in two/three years. Nakano is too consistent not to place at least third, more likely second at Cup of Russia...

Nakanos total scores at Skate Canada, where the highest scores put out by a woman that is not Mao Asada or Yu-na Kim.. And she's looking very strong right now... Lower than third would take a disasterous skate from her, and she doesn't seem to be a choker. Not only would I be shocked to not see Nakano at the Grand Prix Final, at this point I would be shocked if she doesn't end up medaling there. Given what we have seen from all the other skaters.

ChrisH · Nov 18, 2007

sorcerer said:
That only happens when Meier at NHK comes second over Kostner or when the podium is something like Lepisto-Meier-Poykio.

Recall that in the case that Kostner finishes second at NHK, she still needs at least 165.83 points to win a tie-breaker against Caroline. In other words, she needs to land at least 4 more triples than she did at the Cup of China. Kostner's best result in the GPs is a silver medal and in her previous NHK appearance, she was 6th. If she skates very well, it'll be her first appearance in the GPF.

Nor am I too worried about Ando. Should I be? She is the reigning world champion, has a strong GP record, and will have had 5 weeks to heal up since Skate America.

---

bekalc said:
Lower than third would take a disasterous skate from her, and she doesn't seem to be a choker. Not only would I be shocked to not see Nakano at the Grand Prix Final, at this point I would be shocked if she doesn't end up medaling there. Given what we have seen from all the other skaters.

Nonetheless, Suguri and Sebestyen beat her last year and Rochette beat her two years ago. Nakano was not competitive in the GPs three years ago. There is good depth for the Cup of Russia. Nakano need not have a disastrous skate, only a sub-par one. And I only rate the chances of that happening as 10%, yet 10% is not 0%.

bekalc · Nov 18, 2007

ChrisH said:
Recall that in the case that Kostner finishes second at NHK, she still needs at least 165.83 points to win a tie-breaker against Caroline. In other words, she needs to land at least 4 more triples than she did at the Cup of China. Kostner's best result in the GPs is a silver medal and in her previous NHK appearance, she was 6th. If she skates very well, it'll be her first appearance in the GPF.

Nor am I too worried about Ando. Should I be? She is the reigning world champion, has a strong GP record, and will have had 5 weeks to heal up since Skate America.

---
Nonetheless, Suguri and Sebestyen beat her last year and Rochette beat her two years ago. Nakano was not competitive in the GPs three years ago. There is good depth for the Cup of Russia. Nakano need not have a disastrous skate, only a sub-par one. And I only rate the chances of that happening as 10%, yet 10% is not 0%.

Suguri beat Nakano once last year, Nakano beat her twice... I saw Suguri's performances at Cup of China, and I don't think Suguri is capable of beating Nakano. Yes, if Nakano skates poorly maybe Julia can beat, her but I just dont' see it happen.

As for Rochette, she definetly could beat Nakano, if she's clean...And well that would be a disaster for Caroline...Both Rochette and Nakano point wise have a huge lead over Caroline, and it would only take mediocre competitions for them to get over Caroline's point total in the tie breaker. So the best hope for Caroline to make it is

Cup of China

Kim Yu-na
Nakano
Rochette

NHK
Miki Ando
Sarah Meier
Carolina Kostner.

And I think these placements are quite likely...If Kostner or Meir take NHK, then they are in and Caroline's out and Miki would need only a mediocre skate to be in over Caroline at NHK (and third place)

ChrisH · Nov 18, 2007

bekalc said:
As for Rochette, she definetly could beat Nakano, if she's clean...And well that would be a disaster for Caroline...

It might be disaster. OTOH, that would be perfect for Caroline as long as two of these four ladies also beats Rochette: Kim, Sebestyen, Korpi, Liang. Or Kim wins and Suguri beats Rochette. In those cases both Rochette and Nakano will be ranked below Caroline and she'd be 99% certain to go to the GPF. Rochette doesn't just need to beat Nakano. She needs to outskate Nakano and 9 other ladies.

Zhang's GPF only if Ando wins NHK / Prediction on Who to Torino

Kypma

bekalc

Kypma

Joesitz (RIP)

bekalc

feraina

sorcerer

feraina

Kypma

feraina

Mathman

R.D.

bekalc

Mathman

ChrisH

sorcerer

bekalc

ChrisH

bekalc

ChrisH

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