How will the Nationals results send 3 to Worlds?

I. We are 99% sure of Kimmie; We do not know the Harvard plans of Emily. Miraei and Caroline if on the podium will not go to Worlds. Some of our regulars are not going to make it, I'm afraid. That leaves Ashley and Rachael.

Do you agree that regardless of the podium, Ashley and Rachael will go to Worlds as back up for Kimmie.

II. We know it will be Evan and Johnny but who will be going to Worlds among the Men? Abbott?, Carriere? I kinda doubt Scott or Ryan.

Joe

Both Rachael Flatt and Keauna McLaughlin (of the senior pair of McLaughlin/Brubaker) turned 15 after July 1, 2007, so they, like Mirai Nagasu and Caroline Zhang, are too young to compete at 2008 Worlds.

The 3 U.S. Sectionals are this coming week, so we will know all the entries for 2008 U.S. Nationals soon. As for the status/competition readiness of the top 3 U.S. pairs from 2007 Nationals... well, we'll have to wait and see...

Joesitz said:

I. We are 99% sure of Kimmie; We do not know the Harvard plans of Emily. Miraei and Caroline if on the podium will not go to Worlds. Some of our regulars are not going to make it, I'm afraid. That leaves Ashley and Rachael.

Do you agree that regardless of the podium, Ashley and Rachael will go to Worlds as back up for Kimmie.

II. We know it will be Evan and Johnny but who will be going to Worlds among the Men? Abbott?, Carriere? I kinda doubt Scott or Ryan.

Joe

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I think that we can be 100% sure about Kimmie. The USFSA will take Meissner if she was on her death bed. Without Meissner, our chances of getting 3 spots are next to Nil. And you know the USFSA wants 3 spots in LA.

bekalc said:

I think that we can be 100% sure about Kimmie. The USFSA will take Meissner if she was on her death bed. Without Meissner, our chances of getting 3 spots are next to Nil. And you know the USFSA wants 3 spots in LA.

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Totally agree, but which 3? Kimmie wll be one and Emily could be another, if she decides to go to Worlds. If Emily decides not to go, then there will be two needed. The two posible choices from below, imo are:

Alyssa
Bebe
Rachael
Ashley

I think also that Chrissie Hughes could be considered in her first Senior competition.

And as
Sylvia says the Sectionals are coming up and who knows who will get to Nats and make a splash!

In addition to Weir and Lysacek the bronze could be:

Bradley
Smith
Abbott,
Carriere,
Kannalakan
Pennington

And from the Sectionals, hopefully, Rohene

All this is very important for the strategy of the USFS to get enough back up points for Kimmie to keep 3 ladies for 2009. The Men's field does not have an easy podium contender so if one makes a 4th place, we can still get 3 for 2009 with the proper backup.

After all, it is Los Angeles and everyone will be there. Can you imagine, a warm venue for Worlds (although Tokyo was mild and enjoyable)?

What do you think would be the best skaters for the US Nats leading to the best Teams for 2008 Worlds?

Joe

Rachael is not old enough to go to worlds.

I'm not sure about the men, but well I think that with Evan and Johnny were are likely to do enough to get 3 spots for the men...


I think for the women the best possible team would be Meissner, Wagner, and Hughes.

Wagner is younger than Alissa and Bebe, but she's already showed herself to be more stable, and I think with the fact that Emily's skate at last year's worlds "barely did enough," having Ashley would be a major relief!

My fear with Ashley is she's not getting the hype than Caroline or Mirai has gotten. Even though I think Ashley skated really well at Skate Canada (better than Caroline's two showings). It would be nice to see the USFSA attempt to promote Ashley even a little bit because well, you know what, that will help come time for worlds. Don't get me wrong, Ashley definetly needs some more polish...But well her jumps are much more secure than Caroline's or Mirai's.

I know people love Alissa and Bebe.. But I think it would be a real shame if next year we don't have 3 spots especially considering the fact that we have so many talented youngsters coming up.

I don't think Chrissy Hughes will get a spot on the world team because she quite frankly doesn't have the difficulty. Although I'd frankly rather her than Alissa too because once again, at least she lands the jumps she actually has..

Rachael turned 15 in July and still too young to qualify for Worlds. Rules has it to be 1. But she will be at US Nats.

Joe

Joesitz, Austin Kanallakan is staying junior this season, along with Brandon Mroz and Adam Rippon. The Junior Men's event in St. Paul is shaping up to be a "can't miss" competition!

Derrick Delmore, Parker Pennington, Shaun Rogers, Braden Overett, Nicholas LaRoche, Tommy Steenberg, Eliot Halverson, and Rohene Ward are some of the senior guys who have to compete at one of the 3 Sectionals this week in order to qualify for Nationals. Rogers and Ward have successfully landed quad toe combinations in competition this season.

thanks for the insight, Sylvia...


and Joe - I'd LOVE to see Wagner make the world team!

I really don't see much in the way of "strategy" available for USFS. Whoever skates the best at Nationals will also be the best shot we have at Worlds.

I don't see any advantage to USFS to try to prop up one skater and hold back another.

If worst come to worst, and the U.S. qualifies only two skaters for Los Angeles Worlds -- well, that's sport. That will give an extra place for some other deserving skater from another country.

I agree, normally teh strongest the US has makes it onto the team (flukes happen, but for the most part...)... seems most of the US skaters do their best at nationals...

Sylvia - Can't wait for the Sectionals. They will be as mind boggling as the Nationals, I think.

Joe

Mathman said:

I really don't see much in the way of "strategy" available for USFS. Whoever skates the best at Nationals will also be the best shot we have at Worlds.

I don't see any advantage to USFS to try to prop up one skater and hold back another.

If worst come to worst, and the U.S. qualifies only two skaters for Los Angeles Worlds -- well, that's sport. That will give an extra place for some other deserving skater from another country.

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I don't know. If Alissa has a great skate at Nationals and Ashley has a great skate at Nationals, Alissa will probably be better. But consistently the odds of Alissa having a great skate at Nationals and at Worlds. Just isn't there..

Besides, rules wise I don't the USFSA necessarily has to choose top 3.. Can't they choose based on international results. If that's the case.. Ashley could still get in.

I would hate to see Caroline or Mirai for example miss out on Worlds because Alissa cannot land her jumps when the pressure is on. Especially when we have Ashley who can.

Alissa seems like a lovely skater but given what I've seen I don't want her anywhere near the world team...

If Ashley wants to go to Worlds, let her skate for it like everyone else. Same with Alissa.

I can't really buy an argument that says, Alissa skated well at Nationals but we are afraid she won't skate well at worlds. Ashley skated badly at nationals but we hope she will do better at worlds. Therefore we'll send Ashley.

The national federations don't HAVE to do anything. But USFS has always prided itself as being all out in the open and up and up when it comes to selecting the world team and making assignments for the Grand Prix and other international events. First, second and third go to Worlds. No politicking or shady deals behind closed doors.

There have been exceptions in exceptional cases, like sending MK to have a cup of coffee in Torino and putting Emily on a later flight.

And maybe USFS is just trying to be holier than thou vis-a-vis all those crooked federations out there.

Still, I have always appreciated the effort at trying to maintain at least a pretense of fair play.

[
Mathman If Ashley wants to go to Worlds, let her skate for it like everyone else. Same with Alissa.

I can't really buy an argument that says, Alissa skated well at Nationals but we are afraid she won't skate well at worlds. Ashley skated badly at nationals but we hope she will do better at worlds. Therefore we'll send Ashley

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That's not my argument at all. My argument is that if both girls skate well at Nationals. Then ,I would still send Ashley to worlds over Alissa. Because Ashley is consistent and Alissa isn't.

I'm not saying that if Ashley fell 3 times and Alissa didn't, I'd still send Ashley (of course not) What I'm saying is that if Ashley lands 7 triples, and Alissa lands 6 triples. Yes, I think that Alissa should place higher than Ashley in that competition. But I'm still sending Ashley to worlds because I recognize that Ashley is the more reliable skater, and well for the sake of US Ladies skating as a whole, the best possible team should go.

Why shouldn't the USFSA consider consistency? Why is that necessarily wrong Mathman. How Alissa does at worlds, doesn't just affect Alissa. It could also potentially affect the futures of several other skaters. Especially since we have so many young talented youngsters who aren't eligible this year but will be eligible next year. I'm willing to bet at least one age ineligible will end up on the Nationals podium, and it's sad enough that they won't be able to go to worlds this year.

I feel that the very least thing the USFSA owes those youngsters is to choose a team that's most likely to earn 3 spots for next year. And I think that when choosing the team, you have to think about consistency. There is nothing unfair about that. Alissa has earned her inconsistent reputation. Don't get me wrong she seems like a sweet girl and she's a lovely skater. But I don't want to see Mirai/Caroline/ Rachael futures in Alissa's hands.

And honestly its better for the USFSA to say we will consider consistency than it is to lowball someone because they don't want them on the team. Remember poor Mark Mitchell, that was hardly "fair and upright."

And as for likelhood, it is far more likely that Ashley will got to worlds and land 5-7 triples than its likely that Alissa will do so. Ashley's jumping technique is just much more sound.

bekalc said:

Why is that necessarily wrong, Mathman?

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To me, it's wrong because then the selection of the world team is made by a secret committee susceptible to politicking and skulduggery, or at least to the tempation and appearance of such.

The only fair way to do it is unambiguously to set and to announce the criterion beforehand -- then let the chips fall as they may. What's unfair is to change the rules after the game is over.

To announce, "we are now going to have a skating contest (nationals) between Ashley and Alissa and it doesn't matter who wins because we want to send Ashley anyway" -- huh?

The only thing worse than that, IMHO, is NOT to make any such announcement, but to hold that position secretly.

To me, it is just better all the way around to say beforehand to all competitors equally, "this is what you have to do to make the world team. Do it and you're in, don't and you're out."

Mathman said:

To me, it's wrong because then the selection of the world team is made by a secret committee susceptible to politicking and skulduggery, or at least to the tempation and appearance of such.

The only fair way to do it is unambiguously to set and to announce the criterion beforehand -- then let the chips fall as they may. What's unfair is to change the rules after the game is over.

To announce, "we are now going to have a skating contest (nationals) between Ashley and Alissa and it doesn't matter who wins because we want to send Ashley anyway" -- huh?

The only thing worse than that, IMHO, is NOT to make any such announcement, but to hold that position secretly.

To me, it is just better all the way around to say beforehand to all competitors equally, "this is what you have to do to make the world team. Do it and you're in, don't and you're out."

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Yes, Math but you don't think they don't politic when it comes to who gets what scores?:scratch: Once again, maybe you should talk to poor Mark Mitchell about that one. He clearly outskated Paul Wylie at Nationals, but the USFSA wanted to send Paul, so they just lowballed Mitchell. The poor man was robbed.

Now, all I really think the USFSA should make in announcement and say, that when we consider the World team, we will take into account how you have skated this season/ and in the past along with Nationals. Thus, if you have been a grand Prix assignment and you have done very poorly. Be forewarned.

Please don't get me wrong normally, I'm all for the whole 3 spots thing, and having it mainly be decided by nationals. But in the case of Alissa and Bebe too. These are two girls who have had plenty of opportunities to get their acts together.. And they are hardly new on the scene...

bekalc said:

Yes, Math but you don't think they don't politic when it comes to who gets what scores?:scratch: Once again, maybe you should talk to poor Mark Mitchell about that one. He clearly outskated Paul Wylie at Nationals, but the USFSA wanted to send Paul, so they just lowballed Mitchell. The poor man was robbed....

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Mark outskated Paul totally, probably even outskated Christopher, and on top of that Todd was clearly not ready to go to the Olympics which was made obvious when he got there. Basically they clearly wanted those 3 at all costs and Mark could have hung by the rafters and not gone that year.

slutskayafan21 said:

Mark outskated Paul totally, probably even outskated Christopher, and on top of that Todd was clearly not ready to go to the Olympics which was made obvious when he got there. Basically they clearly wanted those 3 at all costs and Mark could have hung by the rafters and not gone that year.

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What happened to Mark rivals what happened to Nakano.. Wrong on so many levels. Poor Nakano beat Ando every time she faced her that year, and Miki clearly wasn't in the best shape that year (she had only one good skate all year) but well that didn't stop the Japanese federation.. That being said even the Japanese federation wasn't stupid. They still fixed it so they would send Takeshi and Miki to the Olympics, but they choose to send the consistent work horses Oda and Yukari to worlds so they would be guaranteed more spots. Takeshi until last year, had a history of bombing at worlds, and I don't just mean little bombing, I mean spectacularly bombing.

I don't think it's unfair at all to consider consistency when your considering the make up of the world team. Especially since you have a case where the US will be really fighting for 3 spots. And as I said before selection by committe or selection by judging "is clearly not always fair."

bekalc said:

Yes, Math but you don't think they don't politic when it comes to who gets what scores?:scratch: Once again, maybe you should talk to poor Mark Mitchell about that one. He clearly outskated Paul Wylie at Nationals, but the USFSA wanted to send Paul, so they just lowballed Mitchell. The poor man was robbed.

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That was wrong. That's what I'm saying. Let them skate and see who wins. Don't manipulate either the placements at nationals or the selection to the world team afterwords.

To get to the finals you have to win the semi-finals. Not just be somebody's darling or the favorite of the powers that be.

I would have no objection to some kind of point system where you also got credit for success in other international events, as long as the criteria were objective and clearly delineated beforehand. What I am against is having these things decided behind closed doors by the whimsy of some committee of politicians and self-proclaimed big shots.