Numbers to World Team

Winnipeg · Nov 27, 2007

What are your thoughts on Canada's performance at Worlds - will we keep the 3 pairs, 3 dance and 2 men, 2 ladie? Increase? Decrease?

I thnk we might lose one dance team for 2009, we'll keep the 3 pairs, keep the 2 men (no increase) and keep the 2 ladies (no increase.

nadster · Nov 27, 2007

I pretty much agree. The thing is that I don't see a scenario where the numbers for 2009 will be that different from what you said.

For dance our 2nd highest placing team would have to be top 10 quality for 3 spots. I am pretty sure Virtue/Moir will medal this worlds ( what colour I have no idea). I doubt if any of our other couples can place in the top 10 come worlds. We can send 3 couples to Worlds this year and it will be a battle between Mccurdy/Coreno , Weaver/Poje and Crone/Poirier for those spots.

In men we would have to have both Buttle and Chan ( I assume these will be the 2 sent) firing for 3 spots. Will Verner , Lambiel , Joubert return to form and will Weir keep up his form for Worlds. Chan plans to add an extra 3A by the end of the year. I could see both of them top 10 but will it add up to under 13 as I don't see either of them finishing top 3.

Dube/Davison look like they'll finish in the 3 to 5 range which means Langlois/Hay would have to finish around 8th . With the US pairs program seemingly decimated at senior level ( their top pair at GP can't even compete at Worlds this year) opens up opportunities for Langlois/Hay to move up.

In ladies, Rochette will finish somewhere in the top 10 ( i think around 6th or 7th) and Leung will finish just outside the top ten I think.

skatingfan04 · Nov 27, 2007

In men's, I think two spots are realistic. Buttle and Chan, if they bot qualify, have the potential to place within the top ten, although Chan is uite young. That would mean 2 spots in men's. I think Roichette will finfish within the top 10, so that does it for ladies. In pairs, D/D could possibly medal, and if not will likely be in the top five. Langlois/Hay will probably be in the top 10, so that means three pairs teams. I think that V/M will medal in dance, which will give us three spots. If the don't, however, I'm not sure if we can keep three spots. V/M will be up their, but without another team in the top 10 - although W/P (if they qualify) have improved, I don't think they can crack the top 10 this year - we could drop down to two.

nadster · Nov 28, 2007

skatingfan04 said:
I think that V/M will medal in dance, which will give us three spots. If the don't, however, I'm not sure if we can keep three spots. V/M will be up their, but without another team in the top 10 - although W/P (if they qualify) have improved, I don't think they can crack the top 10 this year - we could drop down to two.

V/M medalling in dance alone will not give us 3 spots in 2009. It is the sum of the placements of our top 2 placements at worlds that counts. That sum has to be 13 or less to qualify 3 couples for 2009.
So even if V/M medal , if our second team doesn't finish high enough, we are down to 2 for 2009. Personally , I don't see how we can keep that sum to 13 or less even if V/M win worlds. Weaver/Poje ( or McCurdy/Coreno) are very unlikely to finish in the top 12.

skatingfan04 · Nov 28, 2007

nadster said:
V/M medalling in dance alone will not give us 3 spots in 2009. It is the sum of the placements of our top 2 placements at worlds that counts. That sum has to be 13 or less to qualify 3 couples for 2009.
So even if V/M medal , if our second team doesn't finish high enough, we are down to 2 for 2009. Personally , I don't see how we can keep that sum to 13 or less even if V/M win worlds. Weaver/Poje ( or McCurdy/Coreno) are very unlikely to finish in the top 12.

My mistake, then. I was under the impression that if a team or skater finished on the podium, their country automatically recieved three berths for the next worlds. In that case, we'll likely drop down to two, unless W/P can pull off a surprise.

redhotcoach · Nov 28, 2007

nadster said:
In ladies, Rochette will finish somewhere in the top 10 ( i think around 6th or 7th) and Leung will finish just outside the top ten I think.

Mira is not a sure bet to be at World's this year - not by a long shot. While she has improved in the artistry department, her jumps are still downgraded and she still has trouble with that double axel.

Lesley will give her a run for her money -- and there are a few more women improving day by day that could surprise us at Canadians.

If you are correct, then Mira jumping from last place at World's -- to just outside the top ten finish -- will be an incredible feat..

Good luck, ladies! Canadians this year will be a bumpy ride!

nadster · Nov 28, 2007

redhotcoach said:
Mira is not a sure bet to be at World's this year - not by a long shot. While she has improved in the artistry department, her jumps are still downgraded and she still has trouble with that double axel.

Lesley will give her a run for her money -- and there are a few more women improving day by day that could surprise us at Canadians.

If you are correct, then Mira jumping from last place at World's -- to just outside the top ten finish -- will be an incredible feat..

Good luck, ladies! Canadians this year will be a bumpy ride!

Mira had an unusually bad skate at the last Worlds. That was the first really rough skate for her internationally. Her consistency is her strength.

One thing to note is that Mira has never been dinged for underrotations at Canadians despite the constant dingings internationally. Given that Mira's GP results have been better this year ( including a new PB in France), the technical specialists at Canadians will still give her the benefit of the doubt. Technical specialists at national events have ignored blatant underrotations in the past ( Kimmie M's combo in the short at US nationals a glaring example; she landed the toe loop forwards)

The other problem with Hawker is that by finishing only 9th at Skate Canada thus far, she received no ISU ranking points so far this year. If Hawker goes to Worlds that would put her at a big disadvantage with the ISU ranking determining start order. It will be much harder for Hawker to gain the good PCS marks at Worlds than Mira because of the earlier start position.

As far as other ladies go, I only see Lacoste or Samson being possible spoilers and both are so inconsistent even more so than Hawker.

passion · Nov 29, 2007

I think it will once again be Joannie and Mira to Worlds. The judges have their placings at Grand Prix events in the back of their minds. Unless Lesley can totally blow Mira away, I think it will be unlikely Lesley will go to Worlds. Of course, I do hope for the best with Lesley because I think she has a nice quality to her skating. I think Mira has made huge strides with her long program which is really nice to see, too.

nadster · Nov 29, 2007

I wish the best for Lesley as well. At the beginning of the season, I would have given her a realistic chance of beating Mira. But as the GP results come in , it looks far less likely. Lesley would have to skate 2 clean programs ( I have never seen her do this ) and Mira would have to either pop or fall on jumps to have a chance. Mira is unlikely to get her jumps downgraded at nationals and she rarely falls or pops jumps.

Winnipeg · Nov 29, 2007

As far as other ladies go, I only see Lacoste or Samson being possible spoilers and both are so inconsistent even more so than Hawker.[/QUOTE]

What about Phaneuf?

Winnipeg · Nov 29, 2007

Thanks for all the thoughts..............I bet we'll get :

Ladies - 2
Men - 2
Dance - 2
Pairs - 3

for 2009.............................giving us one last chance in 09 to up the entries for 2010.................

redhotcoach · Nov 29, 2007

We'll have to see how Cynthia performs at Senior Challenge next week.......If she blows us away and wins the event with a huge score -- then she might be in the running. She didn't win Quebec sectionals and her scores haven't been earthshattering this year.

I love how she commands the ice. Let's hope she can take command of her jumps this season. I think she is a much better skater than either Mira or Lesley - but hasn't pulled it all together.

nadster · Nov 29, 2007

The early returns are that Phaneuf does not really have her jumps back. That is too bad because her basics are stronger than both Leung and Hawker. If she gets her jumps back, she definitely will be a force. I just hope she does but it will be hard with her height.

BTW , Phaneuf did not compete in the Quebec sectionals. She has a direct bye to nationals ( due to her GP assignment) although she plans to compete at the challenge. She can't lose her bye to nationals even if she falters at the challenge.

Winnipeg · Nov 30, 2007

redhotcoach said:
We'll have to see how Cynthia performs at Senior Challenge next week.......If she blows us away and wins the event with a huge score -- then she might be in the running. She didn't win Quebec sectionals and her scores haven't been earthshattering this year.

I love how she commands the ice. Let's hope she can take command of her jumps this season. I think she is a much better skater than either Mira or Lesley - but hasn't pulled it all together.

I love her presence on the ice too and really hope she does well............:yes:

Winnipeg · Dec 26, 2007

Winnipeg said:
Thanks for all the thoughts..............I bet we'll get :

Ladies - 2
Men - 2
Dance - 2
Pairs - 3

for 2009.............................giving us one last chance in 09 to up the entries for 2010.................

Does anyone have any thoughts or updates to the above? I'm still sticking with the above but fear we may lose one pair spot too (I hope not). Do you think we will have a chance to increase the numbers for 2010? I think we hve a shot for 3 pairs and 3 dance.........maybe 3 men but definitely only 2 maybe even only one lady

fumie_fumie · Dec 26, 2007

I hope we retain 2 spots for men to the Olympics. This can be attainable considering the pace Chan is improving and going up in ranking.

silver.blades · Dec 27, 2007

We get 3 dance teams at worlds this year, in 09 it will probably be down to 2 though. Last world D/L-2 & V/M-6 6+2=8 and the placements need to be less than 13 to get 3 spots, so 3 teams were qualified easily.

Numbers to World Team

Winnipeg

nadster

skatingfan04

nadster

skatingfan04

redhotcoach

nadster

passion

nadster

Winnipeg

Winnipeg

redhotcoach

nadster

Winnipeg

Winnipeg

fumie_fumie

silver.blades

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