GP final predictions

Mathman said:

Hey, if Katia and Mao like him, who am I to take away his silver?

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Okey then. On the other hand, Jamal's looks deserve way higher PCS compared to those he's been given

http://www.jamalothman.ch/images/jpg/jamalbildg54.jpg

The Swiss boys are all yummy.

Hsuhs said:

No, not to the score per se, more to the tiny imperfections in his two performances there. Ah, never mind.

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i know what you're talking about i feel so bad for him...he's having an awful time this season.

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Nakano

Men
1. Weir
2. Dakahashi
3. Lysacek

Thanks for posting, Uncertainty, and welcome!

(I think it's cool, given your username, that your first post is on a prdiction thread, LOL.)

Ladies

1. Yu-na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Yukari Nakano

Well, Yu-na certainly seems to be the most consistent and strongest of the ladies this year, and is not being plagued by wrong-edge take-offs either, so she should have a pretty good chance of winning. Mao seems to be cracking a little bit under all the pressure this year, although she's still the one who is the biggest challenge for Yu-na now. I put Yukari in third because she has put in strong showings this year at her events. I'm not sure about the placing of the other three ladies. There are unclear factors to their placement. For Caroline, it's the technical caller. If she's lenient, she might pull an upset and place higher. For Carolina, it remains to be seen if she can handle her nerves for once. For Kimmie, it's yet unknown whether she has at least fixed a bit of her jump problems. I really hope she does, as even though I understand that she lacks style and maturity, she just seems to be a really nice girl.

Men:
1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Johnny Weir
3. Patrick Chan

Daisuke is in good shape this year, and he's quite consistent with his programs, which have good technical content. Johnny, while supposedly quadless, is very consistent too. Same can be said for Patrick, and I think the battle between Johnny and Patrick will be quite close, as they seem to have similar qualities. Evan's quad is still not that reliable for now, and it's hard to place him with him having a large range of possible scores depending on his quad. Stephane has improved his jumps from Skate America, but again, I don't know how much togehter his jumps are, so I'm not too sure. And I'm sorta embarassed to say this...but I've never really watched Van de Perren skate, but judging by the posts around here, I'd say he's probably going to place 5th or 6th.

Men:

Best Case Scenario: Takahashi wins by being perfect, Johnny decides he's ready for the quad(or Galina informs him he's ready), lands it, and gets silver, Stephane puts it together enough for bronze, Patrick Chan gets fourth, Evan fifth, and KVDP sixth.

Worst Case Scenario: Evan and Johnny both get injured and are forced to withdraw *again,* Stephane falls apart, Takahashi wins by default, Patrick Chan and KVDP line up into silver and bronze respectively.(I'm really dreading the first prospect the most. Two withdrawals each does not bode well for either guy.)

Ladies:

Best Case Scenario: Yu-Na Kim wins, Mao Asada takes silver, and Kimmie Meissner bronze, just edging out Yukari Nakano, who lands the triple axel anyway so she can have something to be proud of. Carolina comes in fifth and Caroline sixth. Most importantly, noone falls.

Worst Case Scenario: Everyone falls! Yu-Na and Mao still take first and second by semi-default, Yukari's triple axel gets downgraded and takes her down to fifth about Carolina Kostner, Caroline Zhang edges out Kimmie Meissner.

Pairs:

Best Case Scenario: S&S skate perfect and sweep up the gold. Pang and Tong just edge out the Zhangs for silver. Dubé and Davison take fourth, Kawaguchi and Smirnov fifth, and McLaughlin and Brubaker sixth.

Worst Case Scenario: S&S skate NHK-style and Pang and Tong fall apart. The Zhangs win, S&S edge out Dubé and Davison for silver. Pang and Tong take fourth, McLaughlin and Brubaker beat Kawaguchi and Smirnov due to falls by the latter.

Dance:

Best Case Scenario: The judges give it a fair chance, then Belbin and Agosto put it together and win, Delobel and Scheonfelder take silver(though really, I'd be happy if they just medaled), Virtue and Moir bronze. K&N then edge their countrymen out for fourth, ensuring both Russian teams'll work for it and possibly win by themselves in the future. P&B'll probably still be in sixth.

Worst Case Scenario: Domnina and Shabalin win due to the judges, then win everything else and skate complacently while the other teams work their butts off, until the North American media blows up in Vancouver, the sport loses even more popularity, and disaster ensues. Oh, and Delobel and Scheonfelder get stuck in fourth again.

I'll be upest if D/S end up in fourth again. BTW, welcome to the forum Vincero and uncertainty.

skatingfan04 said:

I'll be upest if D/S end up in fourth again. BTW, welcome to the forum Vincero and uncertainty.

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Yeah, that would be a heartbreak for me too. Maybe Muriel coaches too many teams and they need to train with someone else that could really help them improve. But no Igor Shpilband please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That would be horrible.

MissIzzy said:

Worst Case Scenario: Domnina and Shabalin win due to the judges, then win everything else and skate complacently while the other teams work their butts off, until the North American media blows up in Vancouver, the sport loses even more popularity, and disaster ensues. Oh, and Delobel and Scheonfelder get stuck in fourth again.

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I don't think that is going to work this time around especially after Athens where Russian media and crowd where equally strong. If at all North Abmerican media pulls coup of that sort US And Canadians will have a hard time 4 years latter in Sochi.

MissIzzy said:

Ladies:

Best Case Scenario: Yu-Na Kim wins, Mao Asada takes silver, and Kimmie Meissner bronze, just edging out Yukari Nakano, who lands the triple axel anyway so she can have something to be proud of. Carolina comes in fifth and Caroline sixth. Most importantly, noone falls.

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If nobody falls, I think that Carolina will be the third. She has all the quality jumps, straightline steps, speed, and presentation that are better than the other three. The other three may be called for wrong edges and underrotation. Carolina's ice coverage is superb and her steps may get level 4 again. Her presentation is also fantastic this year. She is really into the music esp in her SP. Although Caroline's spirals may get better points than any other ladies, Carolina's spirals are great, too. While Caroline and Yukari may be better spinners, Carolina's spins are not bad, either.

If Carolina skates clean, she may win the whole damn thing...but what's the chances of that happening?

mizu_iro said:

If Carolina skates clean, she may win the whole damn thing...but what's the chances of that happening?

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Caroline is for me, the most talented Lady skater in the field but she is not yet able to perfect that talent for a GP Final. The Final, however, will give her the motivation to continue perfecting her programs.

I don't believe, there is a rush to win at an early age. I'm not impressed. I'm more likely to see Caroline in Vancouver on the podium.

For the present Final, it should be between Mao and YuNa for gold.

Joe

mizu_iro said:

If Carolina skates clean, she may win the whole damn thing...

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Wow that would be beautiful!! A real treat for the home crowd in Torin

Joesitz said:

Caroline is for me, the most talented Lady skater in the field but she is not yet able to perfect that talent for a GP Final. The Final, however, will give her the motivation to continue perfecting her programs.

I don't believe, there is a rush to win at an early age. I'm not impressed. I'm more likely to see Caroline in Vancouver on the podium.

For the present Final, it should be between Mao and YuNa for gold.

Joe

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I know her jump technique sucks, but I can't help feeling the same way (hence the username). I really enjoy both of her programs, and the fact that she was able to get a 3-3 in both her sp and lp, in such a short time, is an amazing feet!! Also, I think her spins, spiral extension, and unique jump entrances (spread eagles, spirals, etc) make her program a standout. Forward charlottes are hard enough, but into a triple flip!? Now that's awesome. One interesting thing that I have noted about her jumping technique is that it is not uncharacteristic of smaller skaters. Tara had somewhat of a mule kick, and she was very tiny, and after looking at some skaters at the novice and junior levels, I noticed that they used the same high kick into their jumps as Zhang does.

carolinefan177 said:

One interesting thing that I have noted about her jumping technique is that it is not uncharacteristic of smaller skaters.

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I read somewhere that Caroline used to have a lot of trouble fully rotating her triples (a big part of the reason why she didn't do well at the junior level her first year), and then the summer prior to her JGP assignments, she changed her techniques, in particular including what Dick Button calls the "mule kick" and Scott Hamilton calls the "double fist pump" -- and that really made a difference in getting her triples rotated. And you can see how it catapulted her: she went from 8th at Junior's (national's) to winning JGP Mexico by a historic 53 points, and a remarkable Junior season there-after.

I think given her tiny frame and lack of muscle power, these unorthodox techniques were probably necessary, but these are short-term fixes, and as she grows bigger, she needs to correct them in order to have sustainable senior success. If it's really only been a season and half since she's been jumping this way, then hopefully they're corrigible.

I think she has been trying to tone down the high kick and pre-rotation, which might be why she's being dinged more for under-rotation this year than last. If you look at her 3T's this year (in her 3F/3T combo), they look a lot better than last year -- no high kick, no toe-axeling. Maybe this one was the easiest to fix because it was the easiest jump to rotate to begin with. Her 3F and 3Lz both still have the high kicks (though less prominent in exhibition programs) and I think she's really struggled with trying to fix the flutz, but at least she's getting more height and distance on these jumps now.

Good ladies jumpers give me the sensation that they're "floating" against gravity in a super-natural way: Midori Ito did it for me, as did Elene Sokolova, and also Mao and Miki in previous seasons. This year, for the first time Caroline occasionally gives me that "floating" sensation too, especially when she does a good 3/3.

feraina said:

I read somewhere that Caroline used to have a lot of trouble fully rotating her triples (a big part of the reason why she didn't do well at the junior level her first year), and then the summer prior to her JGP assignments, she changed her techniques, in particular including what Dick Button calls the "mule kick" and Scott Hamilton calls the "double fist pump" -- and that really made a difference in getting her triples rotated. And you can see how it catapulted her: she went from 8th at Junior's (national's) to winning JGP Mexico by a historic 53 points, and a remarkable Junior season there-after.

I think given her tiny frame and lack of muscle power, these unorthodox techniques were probably necessary, but these are short-term fixes, and as she grows bigger, she needs to correct them in order to have sustainable senior success. If it's really only been a season and half since she's been jumping this way, then hopefully they're corrigible.

I think she has been trying to tone down the high kick and pre-rotation, which might be why she's being dinged more for under-rotation this year than last. If you look at her 3T's this year (in her 3F/3T combo), they look a lot better than last year -- no high kick, no toe-axeling. Maybe this one was the easiest to fix because it was the easiest jump to rotate to begin with. Her 3F and 3Lz both still have the high kicks (though less prominent in exhibition programs) and I think she's really struggled with trying to fix the flutz, but at least she's getting more height and distance on these jumps now.

Good ladies jumpers give me the sensation that they're "floating" against gravity in a super-natural way: Midori Ito did it for me, as did Elene Sokolova, and also Mao and Miki in previous seasons. This year, for the first time Caroline occasionally gives me that "floating" sensation too, especially when she does a good 3/3.

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Thank you feraina for sharing your close observations of Caroline's techniques and well-thoughtout analysis.

Ladies
1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Meissner

Men
1. Takahashi or Lysacek
2. Takahashi or Lysacek
3. Weir or Chan

Dance
1. Domnina & Shabalin
2. Belbin & Agosto
3. French couple

Pairs
1. Zhang & Zhang
2. German team
3. Pang & Tong

No prediction but I don't care what color medal Johnny and Evan wind up with as long as they are both on the podium. The two of them have had the worse luck with the grand prix final, in 2005 Johnny was injured, in 2006 Evan was injured and in 2007 they were both injured. Fingers crossed that this year both stay healthy.

My prediction

Ladies
If everyone is nearly clean:
1. Mao
2. Yuna
3. Carolina
4. Yukari
5. Kimmie
6. Caroline

Or
1. Yuna (I suppose she won't make many mistakes)
2. Mao (if she makes many mistakes)
3. Yukari (I suppose she won't make many mistakes)
4. Carolina (if she makes many mistakes)
5. Caroline (depending on the caller)
6. Kimmie (if she makes many mistakes)


Men
1. Daisuke (don't think he'll be clean. But if he makes only few mistakes, he would win)
2. Johnny (I suppose he'll be clean)
3. Chan (he may make relatively few mistakes)
4. Lambiel (I feel that he will make many mistakes but still hang in here)
5. Evan (unpredictable)
6. KVDP

1. Weir (I suppose he'll be clean)
2. Daisuke (if he makes many mistakes)
3. Evan (unpredictable)
4. Chan (if he makes many mistakes)
5. Lambiel (if he makes many many mistakes)
6. KVDP