Kimmie by the 2010 Olympics

Yes, ice is slippery and plenty of injuries and irradic growth spurts can happen in two years to many skateres, but consider this...

Among the US ladies, if there are no injuries among the top contenders and the promising junior ladies don't outgrow their abilities, do you think Kimmie wil make it to the Olympic team?

Somehow, I envision the 2010 US team being Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael with Kimmie missing out (and Sasha missing out as well IF she decides to compete).

Any thoughts?

Too soon to tell.

But I can say this: Meissner's going to have increased national competition as well. It's not like Kwan or Cohen who would have been guaranteed an Olympic spot if they just showed up (or not showed up!). But Kim will actually have to show up AND skate to the best of her ability. Last year, she was off and just barely won against the current flight of Alyssa and Emily. It's going to get tougher for her to hang in there, but that's only assuming the conditions you've stated (that the abilities of the up and comers don't diminish).

The up and comers are still young, and a lot of things can happen. I think as far as the 2010 Olys go, the Asians (Japanese/Koreans) have this one down pat. I hope I'm proven wrong as I like to see upsets, but with this NJS it's going to be much tougher to do...

Apparently Sasha gave a recent interview where she is backing off committing to a return for the 2010 Olympics. I think she knows she won't be competitive with the younger skaters and she might hurt her commercial value as a show skater by failing to make the Olympic team.

As for the Asian skaters having 2010 'down pat', a lot can change in two years. Kim and Asada could continue to grow and suddenly face the same problems that Kimmie is dealing with now, only at a less opportune time.

There may be a face we haven't seen much of yet that suddenly emerges as a threat for the OGM. That's what happened with Tara in 1997.

chuckm said:

Apparently Sasha gave a recent interview where she is backing off committing to a return for the 2010 Olympics. I think she knows she won't be competitive with the younger skaters and she might hurt her commercial value as a show skater by failing to make the Olympic team.

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huh? She never committed in the first place! In a way, she's pulling a Kwan except she's not being so vague about it. From what I can tell, she'd like to be there but questions her ability to do so (which IMO is the right approach).

You're right, she is in her league right now. I hope she's enjoying it because competition ain't gonna do it for her, and TV/movies are questionable. now, let's get back to Meissner...

(Talking about Kimmie solely on the national scene in the future) For me it seems like, barring unforseen injury, as the U.S. Junior ladies advance to Seniors and have more practice in competitions, more familiarity with the judges, and improved PCS, Kimmie will have to rely more and more on her competitors to make mistakes for her to make the podium. She won Worlds when the majority of the tough competition was gone and she had nothing to lose. Now that she has been on the pedestal and the international competition (Yu-Na, Mao, etc) is extraordinarily difficult, she is cracking. If the competition at home gets just as difficult, I feel like she could crack.

2010

Kimmie Meissner reminds of certain skaters in the past. They were very good; but they needed help from the top three competitors to get on the podium. I'm thinking of skaters like Yuka Sato, Surya Bonaly, Elena Sokolova, and Vanessa Gusermoli. The big guns had to sit out a tourney or have a meltdon for them to win a medal

This is the first time in history that US Ladies Figure Skating has been in this situation. In national competition, Kimmie Meissner may not be given a benefit of a doubt as other US champs have been given in the past. The USFSA has been generous to those who are almost always on the World Podium.

alicelouise said:

Kimmie Meissner reminds of certain skaters in the past. They were very good; but they needed help from the top three competitors to get on the podium. I'm thinking of skaters like Yuka Sato, Surya Bonaly, Elena Sokolova, and Vanessa Gusermoli. The big guns had to sit out a tourney or have a meltdon for them to win a medal

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Yes, every one of those skaters won a World medal, and Yuka Sato was a World Champion. But Yuka was 21 and the 1994 World Championship was the last competition of her eligible career. Elena Sokolova won her World silver at 23, in 2003. Gusmeroli was 18 when she won her only World medal, a bronze, in 1997.

Bonaly had a much more distinguished career than the others, having won three World medals (all silver), her first at 20 in 1993, and her third at 22 in 1995. She also won the European Championship five years in a row (1991 through 1995) and European silver in 1996. She also has a full suite of World Junior medals, starting with bronze in 1989 and culminating with gold in 1991. I don't think Surya owes anything to anyone. The one thing that held her back from becoming a multiple World champion was her mother, who was Surya's coach and sole advisor. Mme Bonaly's insistence that Surya rely solely on her prodigious athletic skill (instead of learning proper edging and developing her presentation skills) is what kept Surya from becoming one of the all-time greats.

Kimmie won the World Championship at 16, in only the first year of her career as a Senior skater, and her first appearance at Worlds. I can't think of any skater in recent history who has accomplished such a feat.

chuckm said:

Apparently Sasha gave a recent interview where she is backing off committing to a return for the 2010 Olympics. I think she knows she won't be competitive with the younger skaters and she might hurt her commercial value as a show skater by failing to make the Olympic team.

As for the Asian skaters having 2010 'down pat', a lot can change in two years. Kim and Asada could continue to grow and suddenly face the same problems that Kimmie is dealing with now, only at a less opportune time.

There may be a face we haven't seen much of yet that suddenly emerges as a threat for the OGM. That's what happened with Tara in 1997.

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A lot can change, but Mao and Yu-na are a year younger than Meissner. So I suspect that next year is when they will develop their "issues" besides both girls seem to have been doing okay so far with puberty..

If Caroline & Mirai fulfill their potential and don't get set back by serious injuries, I think they will both be on the Olympic team. The third spot I think will be dueled out among Kimmie, Ashley, and Rachael. Between Kimmie and the youngsters, Kimmie has the advantage in PCS and experience, so how well she fares depends on how much of her jumping skills she can reclaim. Between Ashley and Rachael, Ashley has the advantage in PCS (speed, basic skating skills), and Rachael has it in jumps (especially a 3Lz/3T that she's been consistently landing -- if not consistently rotating -- since 14). In two years though, Ashley may master a 3/3 (she was close to the 3Lz/3R at SC), her basic triples are pretty big; but Rachael could also steadily improve in her PCS. It's really hard to call more than 2 years ahead of time, which one of these three will come out on top. For that matter, it's not clear what will happen to Caroline and Mirai, what with growth/puberty issues looming.

I do not think, though, that anyone among the juniors or novice girls will surprise us in 2010. Tara, who shot to OGM seemingly out of the blue, won National's, WC, and the precursor to GPF the year before the Olympics season; she also won bronze at U.S. National's and placed 5th in JW two seasons before. Oksana Baiul won the European silver and World title in the season before the Olympics.

I do not see any young lady with this kind of potential waiting in the wings in the US, Japan, Russia, or the JGP's in general. Young skaters get much more international exposure now through the JGP series (created in 1997). It's very unlikely some young phenom can get to the Olympics without getting some notice at the junior level, plus the age rule now in place... I don't think there's time left form the 2010 OGM winner to be someone who is not yet doing well in either the junior or senior level now.

Feraina, Yuki Nishino (Japan). the JGPF bronze medalist, is quite talented, has nice basics and could perhaps grow into something more. Besides the Japanese do have Mao.

bekalc said:

Feraina, Yuki Nishino (Japan). the JGPF bronze medalist, is quite talented, has nice basics and could perhaps grow into something more.

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I saw one of Yuki's clips from early 2007. She's pretty good for her age, but right now I wouldn't say yet that she's 2010 OGM material (2014, maybe; she might be Japan's second best bet behind Mao for 2014). Right now, I can't even see her beating out Mao, Yukari, or Miki to represent Japan for Vancouver. She's guaranteed one GP spot next year should she choose to compete in the senior GP's. So perhaps next year we'll see how she stacks up against the "big girls". But she will not be eligible for any ISU championships until Olympic year, so she will have pretty limited senior int'l exposure before the Olympics in any case.

Besides the Japanese do have Mao.

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Of course they do! But we were talking about the US team, no? And if Mao were to win OGM, no one would be surprised. LOL. She and Yu-na are definitely the two favorites going in. They have at least one fall cushion over the best of the rest.

chuckm said:

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Kimmie won the World Championship at 16, in only the first year of her career as a Senior skater, and her first appearance at Worlds. I can't think of any skater in recent history who has accomplished such a feat.

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Didn't Oksana Baiul do the same in 1993 ?

I think a world championship carries a lot of weight in Olympic selection. Provided Kimmie doesn't deteriorate the way Tim Goebel had, I have a hard time imagining her being left off of the team.

I think that Kimmie is a very solid skater and has the mental fortitude to work through the tough times. As for the younger skaters, they have yet to face the challenges of a developing body and the increased pressures of competing.

SusanBeth said:

Didn't Oksana Baiul do the same in 1993 ?

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Baiul won a silver medal at Euros before she won Worlds. Kimmie had skated in two GP events and the 2006 Olympics, but did not win a medal.

i think that she could make the team by the judges holding her up from being previous world champ, national champ (at least one time) and veteran. A bronze medal is by no means far feteched. But to win or even medal at the olympics would be a impossible dream if things don't get better.