Just some Bebe ramblings...

Just thinking.... if Bebe has a clean SP, and a similar LP that she had at Nats, she coudl easyily make Top 10. Her spins have beautiful positions, they are fast and her use of the music esp in the LP is world class. Spirals are excellent... athough I was dissipointed that she took out the slide stop with the spiral for nats... maybe the judges didin't like it. Anyway... looking foward to bebe skating well in Sweden!

If you factor Yu Na Kim, the three Japanese, Joannie Rochette, Ashley and Kimmie, the three medallists at Europeans, I'd say Bebe is looking at a top 12 placement.

Several reasons are she doesn't have a triple - triple, she only lands between 4 or 5 triples in a program and her fifth place result at nationals probably won't sit well with international judges (unless she makes a strong impression at Four Continents)

I'm not soe sure all those triiple/triple ladies will execute them successfully.

Do judges consider placements from previous Nationals as a criteria in judging? I dont think that is in the Rules. Of course, Carolina and Sara will win their respective Nationals. What competition do they have? So the judges will be pleased to give them good scores for their Nationals?

Bebe has as much chance at a top 10 as Nana Takeda, Laura Lepisto.

Let's see.

Joe

I am glad she is getting a shot after so many tries. This may be her last chance. She needs to hold it together for the SP. But has she ever done a clean SP internationally? I hope she rises to the occasion. I guess she can do as well as Alissa would have done.

Count me in as being happy for Bebe. She has two wonderful programs and I am hoping that being chosen for the World team gives her the confidence to skate her best.

I'm thrilled - too - that Bebe's on the world team - and since I'm forever optimistic, I hoping she'll skate GREAT and have this world's experience be a momentum builder so we see her there again next year!!!!!

Especially if the midhitters like Rochette, Takeda, Meier and Lepisto have mediocre skates a la Meissner at Nationals, Liang has a decent chance of, I'd say, hitting the top 9 or 8.

Joesitz said:

I'm not soe sure all those triiple/triple ladies will execute them successfully.



Bebe has as much chance at a top 10 as Nana Takeda, Laura Lepisto.

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Right! remeber when Emily Hughes beat Mao Asada in the SP at Skate Canada? Anything is possible, and Bebe shoudl get very good chreography and transition marks. Her spirals and spins should get huge GOE scores.

Tinymavy15 said:

Right! remeber when Emily Hughes beat Mao Asada in the SP at Skate Canada? Anything is possible, and Bebe shoudl get very good chreography and transition marks. Her spirals and spins should get huge GOE scores.

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Hughes beat Asada by 0.64 because Mao underrotated the 3L in her combo, incurring a 2.4 deduction, and also got a 1.6 deduction for her flutz. But Mao outscored Emily in the FS 119.58 to 103.70, because Emily doubled the only lutz in her FS and underrotated the final 2L in her 3-jump combo.

As for BeBe's 'huge GOE' scores, she didn't even get huge GOE scores in her Nationals FS, let alone from ISU judges. Her layback spin was only L2 and got +0.43 GOE. Her other spins were L4, but got just +0.71, +0.43 and +0.50. Total +GOE from spins amounts to just 2.07 points above base value for all 4 spins.

In her two GP events, the tech team was less generous with spin levels than the USFS tech team, and the judges less generous with the GOE. At her later event in Russia, her spins were rated L4 (+0.40), L3 (+0.40), L4 (+0.50) and L3 (+0.30) for a total of 1.6 points above base value for all 4 spins. The spins at CoC were rated L2 and L3, and got even lower GOE (a total of 1.10 points for all 4 spins.

As for getting high CH and TR, here were her PCS scores from her two GP LPs (CH and IN scores are bolded):

42.24 5.50 5.10 5.10 5.35 5.35 CoC FS
45.60 5.90 5.55 5.75 5.70 5.60 CoR FS

Compare those to her Nationals PCS scores:
56.39 53.38 6.86 6.36 6.71 6.71 6.71 Nationals FS

Another problem is that at CoC and Nationals, she got flutz deductions in her FS. She also got dinged for underrotation on the 3Z and 3F at CoC, and on the 3Z and 3T at CoR.


What is more worrisome than the FS, though, is the SP. BeBe did not come close to skating a clean SP at either of her GP events, and she did the same at Nationals.

At CoC, she doubled her solo flip and scored 46.44 with these PCS scores:
21.64 5.55 5.20 5.35 5.50 5.45
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of +1.70

At CoR, she fell on the lutz and then did only 3F+1T and scored 46.40 with these PCS scores:
20.20 5.25 4.80 4.95 5.15 5.10
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of +2.60

At Nationals, she popped the lutz and as a result had no combo. She scored 55.10 with these PCS scores:
25.15 6.32 6.00 6.29 6.46 6.36
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of 4.07

At Worlds, if BeBe pops her combo, she will not get a generous mid-50s score such as she got at Nationals, because her PCS scores will be 5 points lower, and she won't get the generous +GOE she got at Nationals. A similar mistake and she will wind up with a total SP score in the mid-to-upper 40s, which means she will be perilously close to the cutoff point for making it into the FS (last year, the cutoff was 44.91), and she is likely to be in the first or second group to skate in the FS.

In the first two groups, PCS scores are held down, which means if BeBe has a FS similar to her Nationals FS (her mistakes were a popped loop and solo flip), she probably will get a score closer to 95 than to the 109.77 she got at Nationals. Her PCS scores will be closer to 45 than to 56, and she will not get the generous GOE she got at Nationals (in her GP events, she got -GOE on most of her FS jumps, and the few that weren't minus got +0.20).

So a total 141-146 for the entire event (46-49 SP plus 95-97 FS) would place BeBe 15th to 17th, about where Alissa Czisny finished last year. And that is assuming she doesn't get two dings in the FS for flutzing and there are no underrotations.


I wish BeBe would skate her heart out and have a good placement. But she is, unfortunately, rather consistent in her inconsistency. She can't seem to skate a clean SP, and in the FS she fairly consistently falls or pops jumps.

So I'm hoping for the best, but expecting the usual from BeBe.

Is Nana Takeda on the Japanese world team? What happened to Yukari Nakano?

I remember last year, this Canadian poster on one of these skating boards made the observation that "If Mira is the second best we've got, we're in trouble."

Well, I thought it was funny at the time.

Mathman said:

Is Nana Takeda on the Japanese world team? What happened to Yukari Nakano?

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She isn't. The Japanese World team is Asada, Ando and Nakano.

If you do not believe Bebe will be a top ten skater at Worlds, please name the top 10 who will be.....

Joe

Bebe has a very good shot of the top 10. I don't understand why people are always forgetting her and going, Ashley will do well at worlds. For Kimmie we do not know. Hey guys, what about Bebe???? lol

Here are the reasons why I don't think Bebe will finish in the top 10:

1. She is an inconsistent jumper and she has a bad habit of popping jumps.
2. She has never medaled in the GP, and did poorly in her GP events this year. Although she won a bronze medal at 4CC in 2006, that year NONE of the top skaters went because of the Olympics.
3. She gets low PCS scores (in the mid to upper 5s)
4. She can't seem to skate a clean SP, which would put her way down in the standings after the SP. It's nearly impossible to break into the top 10 when you are in the first or second FS group to skate. You'd have to have a clean FS, something BeBe has never delivered.

better

A better question is: can she make to the free skate?

She can't skate a clean short and has the real good chance of being bumped out of top 24.

I don't have faith in her skating at all.

Joesitz said:

If you do not believe Bebe will be a top ten skater at Worlds, please name the top 10 who will be.....

Joe

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Will be in the top 10:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Miki Ando
Carolina Kostner

Should be in the top 10:
Sarah Meier
Yukari Nakano
Kimmie Meissner
Joannie Rochette

Could be in the top 10:
Ashley Wagner
Kiira Korpi
Julia Sebestyen

I don't see BeBe Liang beating any of these skaters, not even the "could be"s. Ashley Wagner beat BeBe soundly at Nationals. Korpi beat her at CoR by nearly 20 points; Sebestyen beat her at both CoC and CoR.

Wait....sorry to pull off topic....but you truly believe Wagner "should," lose to Meier, Rochette and hell, Meissner?! I would be far from surprised to see a top 7 finish for Ms Wagner.

pista04 said:

Wait....sorry to pull off topic....but you truly believe Wagner "should," lose to Meier, Rochette and hell, Meissner?! I would be far from surprised to see a top 7 finish for Ms Wagner.

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This is Ashley's first time at Worlds, and we don't know how she will be scored by the ISU judges. They gave her low PCS scores in her first GP event, SC, which kept her in 5th place despite a very good FS. She did a lot better at TEB, and got better PCS scores in the FS.

What might hurt Ashley is the flutz deduction in the SP, which together with lower PCS scores than the top ladies, could keep her out of the final flight and possibly even the penultimate flight. She got 50 and change for her SPs in both her GP events; at Worlds 2007, a score in that range would keep her out of the top 12.

Another problem is that Ashley tried her 3Z+3L at Skate Canada, and the second jump of the combo was deemed underrotated, which gave her another deduction. I don't know what her strategy is for Worlds, but if she tries 3/3s and they get dinged for ur, that could keep her out of the top 10.

I know she's been working on the flutz and presumably the ur, but you can't judge the success of her efforts on her Nationals performances, which had no deductions for either. I guess we will get a clue from her 4CC performances.

If Ashley has solid performances such as she had at Nationals and doesn't get heavy flutz deductions or ur calls, she has an excellent chance to place in the lower half of the top 10.

I think she is a more consistent and dynamic performer with better jumps than Sebestyen and Korpi. Ashley's also been more consistent this season than Meissner, Rochette and Meier; the reason I put these 3 in the Should category is their inconsistency. However, Meissner is a former World champion and 2007 GPF finalist, and Meier a two-time Euros silver medalist who's been in the top 8 at the last two Worlds and the Olympics. Rochette has also been in the top 10 for the last two years, and was 5th at the Olympics. So all 3 of these ladies will get higher PCS scores than Ashley. Maybe that doesn't seem fair, but judges do protocol judge, whether we like it or not.

Doesn't the flutz have to get noticed by the Tech Panelists?

I think Ashley, if she does flutz has been getting away with it, as do many skaters.

However, it is not, I believe, a full point off the Total Score at the end of the competition as is a Fall. I believe it does not affect the base score of the actual jump that much. I do believe it should be a major error in the Skating Ability component. But I doubt that happens.

Joe