USA & Other Countries JGP Nominees announced

[chuckm]

The US submitted Alissa's name for GP consideration (her due, considering that she placed in the top 10 at Nationals), and Alissa received an invitation from Skate Canada.

But that has nothing whatsoever to do with the envelope where she was placed, which is based solely on performance during 2007-2008, and Alissa did not perform well, placing 11th at one GP event and 6th at the other, and then 9th at Nationals.

Again, if Alissa MEDALS at Skate Canada, she will be moved into the "C" envelope. Considering the competition there, that will be not be easy for her to do unless her jumping has improved.

The Juniors you are complaining about were placed in the "C" envelope because they medaled at their assigned events in the 2007-2008 season. However, there is no guarantee that either of them will actually get to skate in the JGP, but that has no bearing on their envelope placement. Skaters who have already delivered good results in the JGP will be given preference over newbies.

Alissa is also not guaranteed to get a second event, as there are several other skaters with one event who performed better last season (Emily Hughes, Alina Leonova, to name two).

[Sandra_persch]

Can we get back to the JGPs please. As much as I love Alissas skating she has aged out and is therefore ineligible for diskussion in this topic

I am actually really liking the Canadian ladies entries so far. Finally the are going with a younger team than in the past. Hopefully they can gain valuable international experience, have fun and skate great too.

[nadster]

Can we get back to the JGPs please. As much as I love Alissas skating she has aged out and is therefore ineligible for diskussion in this topic

I am actually really liking the Canadian ladies entries so far. Finally the are going with a younger team than in the past. Hopefully they can gain valuable international experience, have fun and skate great too.

I am cautiously optimistic about the Canadian ladies entries so far. We have more slots this year ( 8 + a few extra from higher placing JW countries not using all their slots). Therefore there is naturally more room to fit in the younger ladies. I am especially happy with the picking of Rylie.

However, when I see that Devon Neuls is listed as a substitute for the first 2 events, I can see that Skate Canada will waste a few spots ( in future events) on a few older ones who will fall off the face of the earth internationally after this season. The fact is that it is very likely that Neuls ( who is in her last year) will get a spot is not that good when you consider that there are at least 15 other ladies in Canada ( in senior, junior and novice) that are likely to do better than her. I also see Kang ( also in her last year and beat Neuls at nationals) being picked and she has had 4 JGP assignments and has not made progress. The top 7 junior ladies outscored Kang at nationals and the top 11 juniors outscored Neuls. Also when you apply junior PCS multipliers to the top novice scores ( those over 100 which 3 novice ladies managed to do over last season ) these novice ladies are likely to fare better than the likes of Kang and Neuls as well ( novice PCS multipliers are much lower than the junior ones).

So although more younger ones will be picked simply because there are more slots, there still will be promising ones left out for the older ones going nowhere.

[ChrisH]

But that has nothing whatsoever to do with the envelope where she was placed ...

The Juniors you are complaining about were placed in the "C" envelope because they medaled at their assigned events in the 2007-2008 season. However, there is no guarantee that either of them will actually get to skate in the JGP, but that has no bearing on their envelope placement.

I trust that I've made myself clear, but you seem to be missing a vital point. I haven't criticized the juniors, but rather the selection criteria, whether that be for GP assignments, JGP assignments, or for team placements. I think that people expect assignments and placements to be based on an accurate evaluation of the skaters, so yes they are related. They should be highly related. This "nothing whatsoever" and "no bearing" language that you use actually confirms the weaknesses in the selection criteria.

Getting back to the initial nominees, I wouldn't have placed Marissa Secundy on that list. Despite winning in the novice division at Nationals, she had significantly lower scores than the other ladies last season even after accounting for the differences in the scoring between the junior and novice divisions. And she is not younger than the others. However, at least there is consistency in her evaluation by the USFS. She is an initial nominee and she is in team C.

[chuckm]

Last season, Marissa Secundy not only won the Novice Championship, but she also won her first international assignment, the Challenge Cup Novice Ladies event; she was 2nd at both Mids Sectionals and SW Regionals. That shows a degree of consistency that cannot be ignored.

Also, after winning the Juvenile Championship in 2006, Marissa skipped Intermediates and went right to Novices, although she placed 10th at 2007 Sectionals in 2007 and didn't make it to Nationals. She certainly improved upon that last season.

I think it has to be said that Marissa shows a tremendous amount of promise and she fully deserves a JGP event and her envelope placement.

The other juniors you mentioned HAVE NOT received an international assignment as yet, so I don't understand your complaints about how the events have been handed out. Just because a skater is on a substitute list is no guarantee that she will get an assignment. Many won't get a chance for a JGP event unless some top skaters fail to finish in the top 4 at their assigned JGP events.

[Sylvia]

The USA JGP men's alternates (of those currently without a JGP assignment listed as substitutes for Courchevel and Merano) are William Brewster (J9), Austin Kanallakan (J10), Grant Hochstein (J11) and Ross Miner (N2).

Based on their Lake Placid performances/results this past week, Piper Gilles/Zachary Donohue (new team), Elyse Matsumoto/Patrick Mays (N7) and Shannon Wingle/Timothy McKernan (new team) are the 3 USA dance substitutes newly listed for Merano.

P. Gilles/Donohue and Wingle/McKernan were named as the U.S. dance teams for the Ostrava, Czech JGP and 2 new JGP ladies' alternates were also added for Ostrava -- Kirsten Olson (J7) and Ellie Kawamura (J8).

[Joesitz]

P. Gilles/Donohue and Wingle/McKernan were named as the U.S. dance teams for the Ostrava, Czech JGP and 2 new JGP ladies' alternates were also added for Ostrava -- Kirsten Olson (J7) and Ellie Kawamura (J8).

isn't kirsten olson a protoge of Rohene? She was better that expected at last year's Nats, and he was beaming.

[Joesitz]

Quote:
Getting back to the initial nominees, I wouldn't have placed Marissa Secundy on that list. Despite winning in the novice division at Nationals, she had significantly lower scores than the other ladies last season even after accounting for the differences in the scoring between the junior and novice divisions. And she is not younger than the others. However, at least there is consistency in her evaluation by the USFS. She is an initial nominee and she is in team C.

I don't believe any of these Juniors can be classified as seasoned skaters. However, some have more talent than others, and I put Secundy in that categrory. We'll see.

[ChrisH]

2 new JGP ladies' alternates were also added for Ostrava -- Kirsten Olson (J7) and Ellie Kawamura (J8).

So your USA notes look something like the following:

2008 Nationals level/placements & JGP Final/Jr. Worlds results added below.
* = making JGP debut in 2008-09

Ladies assignments
*Becky Bereswill S10
Melissa Bulanhagui S8
*Amanda Dobbs J5
Alexe Gilles J1/JGPF6
Angela Maxwell J2
Kristine Musademba J4/JGPF4
*Brittney Rizo J3
*Marissa Secundy N1

Alternates
Ellie Kawamura J8
Kirsten Olson J7
Victoria Rackohn J6; silver at Gardena Spring Trophy
Tenile Victorsen S11
Karen Zhou S16; gold at Gardena Spring Trophy


---
A possible salve for Secundy is that perhaps see started skating later than the other ladies. I take it Joesitz is seeing superior edgework and flow from her. Judging only by her scores, age, and speed, she trails in talent to a few others who haven't been given an assignment.

[Joesitz]

A possible salve for Secundy is that perhaps see started skating later than the other ladies. I take it Joesitz is seeing superior edgework and flow from her. Judging only by her scores, age, and speed, she trails in talent to a few others who haven't been given an assignment.

She was the Novice Champion at US Nats and I saw her in Exhibition. She does have super flow and edges over the ice. Don't know much about her start of skating.

When I see a skater live or possibly from a very clear youtube, I do indeed look to see if the skater knows how to skate properly. Once that clears up, I go for the tricks. Medals to me should go to the best skater in that and only that competition. they do not necessarily go to best skater.

[chuckm]

I wonder why some see these alternates as being younger and having more 'talent' than Secundy.

Ellie Kawamura, age 14, turns 15 in November; no Team envelope
2008: J8
2007: N5
2006: I3
2005: I6, SWP Regionals
2004: Ju3

Kirsten Olson, age 16, turns 17 in October; no Team envelope
2008: J7
2007: J9
2006: withdrew, UGL Regionals
2005: N5
2004: I2


Victoria Rackohn, age 15, turns 16 in November; Team C
2008: J6; silver at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: J8
2006: N5
2005: N10
2004: N11, SWP Regionals
2003: I7, SWP Regionals

Tenile Victorsen, age 18 (Jan); No Team envelope
2008: S11
2007: S5, SWP Regionals
2006: J10
2005: J4, 8th JGP SVK, 2nd Gardena Spring Trophy
2004: N7
2003: I9
2002: Ju4

Karen Zhou, age 17 (Aug 21); Team C
2008: S16; gold at Gardena Spring Trophy (Junior)
2007: S6, Pacific Sectionals
2006: J9, SWP Regionals
2005: J8, SWP Regionals
2004: I5, SWP Regionals

Marissa Secundy, age 15 (May); Team C
2008: N1; gold, Challenge Cup (Novice)
2007: N10, Midwest Sectionals; N2, SW Regionals
2006: Ju1

National Championships: Secundy, Novice and Juvenile

National medalist:
Secundy: N1, Ju1
Kawamura: I3, Ju3
Olson: I2
Victorsen: J4, Ju4

Age: (youngest to oldest)
Kawamura 14 (Nov '93)
Secundy 15 (May '93)
Rackohn 15 (Nov '92)
Olson 16 (Oct '91)
Zhou 17 (Aug '91)
Victorsen 18 (Jan '90)

[ChrisH]

I wonder why some see these alternates as being younger and having more 'talent' than Secundy.

As I've mentioned previously, if you look at their more recent scores, including regionals and sectionals, there is a wide gap that can't be explained by divisional differences alone.

ETA: And I did not say that the alternates were younger. Being the novice champion, most would natually assume that Secundy is one or two years younger than all of the others, but she's not.

[chuckm]

Why would you consider Regionals and Sectionals "more recent"? Regionals were 10 months ago, and Sectionals 9 months.


At the time of the 2008 Novice Championships, here were the Sectionals scores of all the Novices, along with their ages:
127.17 (M1) Christina Gao 13, 3/94
122.96 (M2) Marissa Secundy 14, 5/93
114.40 (M3) Sophia Lamay 14, 5/93
112.93 (M4) Agnes Zawadzki 13, 7/94
104.19 (P1) Victoria Hecht 14, 5/93
102.42 (P2) Samiera Abou-Nasr 16, 11/91
101.78 (E1) Holly Alexander 13, 6/94
101.24 (P3) Stephanie Rigley 14, 5/93
99.82 (E2) Felicia Zhang 14, 9/93
99.54 (P4) Song King 14, 6/93
97.84 (E3) Gretchen Donlan 14, 11/93
94.27 (E4) Kendall Wyckoff 15, 7/92

As far as Sectionals scoring is concerned, Secundy had the second-highest score of the Novices.

Like the majority of the Novice ladies, Secundy was 14.
As Juniors at Nationals, Kawamura was 14, Rackohn was 15, and Olson 16. The average age of the Juniors was 15, so Kawamura was younger than average and Olson was older than average.
As Senors at Nationals, Zhou was 16 and Victorsen, 18. The average age of the Seniors was 18, so Victorsen was average and Zhou was younger than average.

Now, as far as the "discrepancy" between Secundy's Sectionals scores and the scores of the Junior ladies.....

Average TES and PCS scores - Junior Ladies:
26.41 TES, 20.33 PCS - 46.74 Average Total Short Program
41.55 TES, 38.74 PCS - 80.29 Average Total Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 127.03

Average TES and PCS scores, Novice Ladies:
17.54 TES, 15.86 PCS - 33.40 Average Short Program
32.18 TES, 33.07 PCS - 65.25 Average Free Skate
Overall Average Total: 98.65

Subtracting 127.03 - 98.65, you get the expected Total score difference between the Junior and Novice ladies: 28.38

Here were the Total Sectionals scores of the Junior Ladies. Subtract from each the scores of the Novice Ladies.
152.16 Maxwell M1 - 127.17 Gao = 24.99
148.68 Olson M2 - 122.96 Secundy = 25.72
148.28 Scimeca M3 - 114.40 Lamay = 33.88
147.34 Fairchild M4 - 112.93 Zawadzki = 34.41
141.06 Kawamura P1 - 104.19 Hecht = 36.87
131.79 Alba P2 - 102.42 Abou-Nasr = 29.37
131.30 Dobbs P3 - 101.78 Alexander = 29.52
129.04 Rackohn P4 - 101.24 Rigley = 27.80
127.94 Ruan E1 - 99.82 Zhang = 28.12
127.21 Rizo E2 - 99.54 King = 27.67
103.85 Leonov E3 - 97.84 Donlan = 6.01
101.16 Stern E4 - 94.27 Wyckoff = 6.89

Most of the score differences are very close to the expected difference.

What you forgot is not only the PCS multiplier difference, but also the fact that the Junior programs are longer than the Novice programs (SP 8 vs 6 elements; FS 12 vs 10 elements) and the fact that Junior Ladies attempt more difficult jumps than the Novices do.

[ChrisH]

Why would you consider Regionals and Sectionals "more recent"? Regionals were 10 months ago, and Sectionals 9 months.

10 months ago is certainly more recent than 2002 and 2003.

What you forgot is not only the PCS multiplier difference, but also the fact that the Junior programs are longer than the Novice programs (SP 8 vs 6 elements; FS 12 vs 10 elements) and the fact that Junior Ladies attempt more difficult jumps than the Novices do.

No, I didn't forget any of those things. Note that the juniors attempt more difficult jumps because they are better skaters than the novices, not necessarily because the rules disallow novices from attempting more difficult jumps. And it's not just more skilled at jumping, juniors are more skilled in all facets of skating. Calculating how much more skilled the juniors were than the novices is where your "discrepancy" calculations are lacking. Perhaps you forgot that as Marisa improves, so will the others. To determine how much more skilled the juniors were, take the differences you calculated and reduce them to account for the different rules.

Let's look at the scores for the 2007-2008 season of the most likely candidates. For personal bests scores, I've noted the event where it occurred.

Ellie Kawamura
junior: 122.74, 141.06 (pacific sectionals), 140.21

Kirsten Olson
junior: 130.21, 148.68 (midwestern sectionals), 138.13

Victoria Rackhohn
junior: 118.68, 137.70 (nationals), 129.04, 127.50

Marisa Secundy
junior: 114.01
novice: 104.77, 110.38, 122.96 (midwestern sectionals), 108.52

These scores can be found at: http://www.tracings.net/usa.html

Let's adjust their personal bests scores to account for the differences in the rules between the junior vs. novice division. The protocols for those skates can be found at: http://www.usfigureskating.org/Events.asp
After eliminating the extra elements that the juniors did compared to the novices and adjusting for the PCS multipliers, I get the following novice-ized scores:
Ellie Kawamura at pacific sectionals: 129.47
Kirsten Olson at midwestern sectionals: 132.88
Victoria Rackohn at nationals: 120.17
Marisa Secundy at midwestern sectionals: 122.96

Ellie is age 14 old and she is scheduled for Goldenwest. Kirsten is age 16. I don't know what her summer monitoring was or will be. Victoria is age 15 and she scored 118.68 at Gardena and is scheduled for Goldenwest. Marisa is age 15 and she scored 114.01 at Liberty. (All of these scores are at the junior level, so no adjustments are necessary.)

So if Ellie scores better than 114.01 at Goldenwest, which I believe is highly likely, IMO she should be placed ahead of Marisa. For Kirsten, I'm looking for a 130+ score, which is likely. For Victoria, a 125+ score. These score levels can be raised as we get deeper into the year.

[chuckm]

Marisa Secundy
junior: 114.01
novice: 104.77, 110.38, 122.96 (midwestern sectionals), 108.52

These scores can be found at: http://www.tracings.net/usa.html

So if Ellie scores better than 114.01 at Goldenwest, which I believe is highly likely, IMO she should be placed ahead of Marisa. For Kirsten, I'm looking for a 130+ score, which is likely. For Victoria, a 125+ score. These score levels can be raised as we get deeper into the year.

So you are comparing Marissa's early-season 2008 score at Liberty (mid July)
to scores of Junior Ladies from 2007 Sectionals (mid-November). Not cricket. How about you get scores of those ladies from early summer 2007?

Why not wait for Marissa's JGP score to come in before dissing her?