The Ladies Draw

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ChrisH

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Oct 31, 2007

• Jun 30, 2008

• #1

So I did a bit of a structured analysis and it confirmed a lot of what has been said in other topics while also revealing a few tidbits.

The GP entries for the ladies can be found here:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=968

Using a simplified point system, where facing off against Asada or Kim is worth 2 points on down to facing off against Czisny, Suguri, or Takeda worth 0.25 points, I've come up with the following difficulty rating for the six GP events:

Skate America 8.75
Skate Canada 5.50
Cup of China 7.00
Trophee Eric Bompard 6.00
Cup of Russia 5.75
NHK Trophy 6.50

Accounting for the fact that the ladies aren't competing against themselves (in terms of getting GP medals), I've come up with the following opponents rating for 13 of the ladies:

Ando 13.25
Nagasu 12.75
Flatt 12.50
Meissner 12.50
Wagner 12.00
Lepisto 12.00
Kim 11.75
Nakano 11.75
Meier 10.25
Kostner 8.75
Asada 8.50
Zhang 8.50
Rochette 8.25

Overall, the differences in the draws are significant IMO but not overwhelming. Ando will have to skate very well in both events to make the final while Rochette needs to skate well in both events to make the final.

 

Mathman

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Jun 21, 2003

• Jun 30, 2008

• #2

Interesting. I love this stuff.

I agree that the awkward part is how to take into account the fact that a skater doesn't have to compete against herself. For instance, it looks like Mao has an easy time of it because she doesn't have to face herself (or Kim or Kostner, for that matter.) Still, she kind of does, because if she doesn't skate up to the level of Mao Asada then she might get beat.

This is great for Ando, Nagasu and Flatt. They are set up to mow down the strongest possible fields and roar into the finals on a high note.

 

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Wrlmy

Medalist

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Jun 17, 2007

• Jun 30, 2008

• #3

I'm curious what value you assigned to Kostner since she's reigning silver medalist.
But that's a great list! Looking good for Caroline Hope she can make GPF two years in a row and prove she's not a push-over.

 

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fairly4

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Oct 28, 2007

• Jun 30, 2008

• #4

you might be surprised if you added the scores for each of the ladies regarding the season best for total, free skate and short. and then divide by either 12 or 11 depending on how many skaters numbers you get.
because it goes
overall
skate america
skate canada/cup of china
cup of russia
nhk
trophy de france

free skate
skate america
cup of china
skate canada
cup of russia/nhk
trophy dede eric bompard

short program
skate canada
skate america
cup of china
cup of russia
nhk
trophy de eric bompard

i did the math, i just don't have it on me at the moment.
i was going to do all of personal best next instead of just season's best.

 

Mathman

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Jun 21, 2003

• Jun 30, 2008

• #5

^ If you find the numbers (without doing it all over again), please post them.

Actually, this ranking by season's bests is not too different from ChrisH's list, except that Eric Bompard is farther down.

 

Last edited: Jul 1, 2008

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Wrlmy

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• Jul 1, 2008

• #6

Mathman said:

^ If you find the numbers (without doing it all overagain), please post them. :coo:

Actually, this ranking by season's bests is not too different from ChrisH's list, except that Eric Bompard is farther down.

Click to expand...

Didier really ruins the curve, doesn't she?

 

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ChrisH

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• Jul 1, 2008

• #7

Wrlmy said:

I'm curious what value you assigned to Kostner since she's reigning silver medalist.

Click to expand...

That is a tough one. She had personal bests at the GPF and at Worlds. She did much better in the GPs last season than she did in previous seasons. However, her motivation may have been higher as the GPF was held in her home country. She usually skates better in her 2nd event than in her 1st. She got a bronze medal in her 1st event last season and squeaked out a gold medal in her 2nd event. Her 2nd event this year is closer to home. She is a lovely skater off the ice. On the ice, not as much. I gave her a split value. 1.00 for her 1st event and 1.50 for her 2nd event, which translates to the 3 seed at Skate Canada and the 1 seed at the Cup of Russia.

 

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ChrisH

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• Jul 1, 2008

• #8

fairly4 said:

you might be surprised if you added the scores for each of the ladies regarding the season best for total ... i was going to do all of personal best next

Click to expand...

Yes, I looked at the season bests for total scores. Computed average scores for the top 12 on down to the top 3 in each GP. Skate America is the toughest in every case, but the others bounce around a bit depending on how you look at them. Using season best scores is more objective, but it has bigger problems than a more subjective approach. It doesn't account for the Cup of Russia having a skater TBA (to be announced), that Candice Didier's score only included a short program (she didn't qualify for the free skate at the World Championships), and that Akiko Suzuki didn't have a score at all (it's difficult to get an international assignment as a Japanese lady). Among the stronger skaters, Poykio was injured, Nagasu and Wagner were their best at Nationals, etc.

Qualifying for the final came down to 9 ladies last season (http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2007/gpsladies.htm). Prior to the GPs, there must have been a longer list of contenders. I was wondering how many were on that early list and what happened to remove them from it. What is the likehood of wear and tear or lack of interest knocking a skater out before the actual competition begins?

 

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fairly4

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Oct 28, 2007

• Jul 2, 2008

• #9

mathman
it is probably correct, the season best scores overall what the personal best scores are forsome skaters why. joannie, caroline zhang, carolina kostner, sarah meier, yu-na kim, ashley wagner, nana takeda, ya-nough kim, katrina hacker, in the overall had the same scores. season best and personal bestthis year.

in fact 6 ladies in skate america had both season and their personal best this year.
skate canada had i think 7, cup ofchina i think 6, france5, cupofrussia 5or 6, nhk i think had 6 in their overall so the season and personal best scores would be about the same.
also all but 1 skater in skate america has two events, all but2 -3in skate canada has two events, 5 in skate france only skate in 1event, cupofchina, cup of russia has 3 skaters that only skate in1 event not counting the tba in cup of russia,and nhk i think has 4 skaters only 1 one gp event

 

PaulE

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• Jul 3, 2008

• #10

Wow! A thread on Golden Skate dedicated to math and logic. I love it. :thumbsup: Thanks everyone for the interesting read.

 

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bethissoawesome

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• Jul 14, 2008

• #11

/applauds this thread.

 

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ChrisH

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• Oct 20, 2008

• #12

The major contenders have remained healthy as far as I know. Only Nagasu has suffered from a minor injury. As for dis-interest, they all seem ready to compete except for Kostner, who had 4 falls in her tune-up event.

The only other big news is that Nakano reportedly came in third after Suguri and Takeda in the Tokyo Regionals.

Other news include Suzuki and Czisny having impressive tune-up events. To be contenders, though, they need to be given 2nd assignments if others withdraw. Korpi has been replaced by another skater for Skate Canada.

 

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*Sniper*

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• Nov 8, 2008

• #13

What an interesting thread!
Thank you for crunching all those numbers and coming up with this fun read.

By the way, now that Cup of China is over, I guess Kim has qualified for the final whereas Ando will be likely on the cusp.
Is that right?

 

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ChrisH

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• Nov 19, 2008

• #14

Thanks. Yes, Ando is on the cusp.

TEB didn't really change anything as it was hard to imagine Zhang outskating either Rochette or Asada after her struggles at Skate Canada. It's also hard to imagine that Asada and Nakano won't go 1-2 at the NHK. Nakano managed to get 2nd and 172.53 points at Skate America while she was IMO struggling to get into shape. She's getting high presentation scores. She should be in better shape at the NHK and so should score about the same there. (Although I think she'll skate better, I doubt she'll escape with no downgrades again.)

So things need to break Ando's way at the CoR. There are few ways that can happen, so her chances aren't bad. They include:
* Kostner and Flatt finishing 1-2 in either order.
* Suguri winning
* Meissner winning
If any of those three scenarios plays out, Ando's chances of making the final become very good.

It would be a pity if Ando didn't make the final. I believe that she deserved the silver medal at Skate America but suffered from the downgrade rules. That and her tough draw are responsible for her present predicament.

 

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C_T_T_

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• Nov 20, 2008

• #15

ChrisH said:

Thanks. Yes, Ando is on the cusp.

So things need to break Ando's way at the CoR. There are few ways that can happen, so her chances aren't bad. They include:
* Kostner and Flatt finishing 1-2 in either order.
* Suguri winning
* Meissner winning
If any of those three scenarios plays out, Ando's chances of making the final become very good.

Click to expand...

Assuming like you said Asada and Nakano go 1-2 at NHK, I think the only result that would be bad news for Ando is Flatt or Kostner winning with Suguri 2nd.

 

Joesitz (RIP)

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Jul 11, 2003

• Nov 20, 2008

• #16

'Season's Best' is much more accurate than 'Personal Best'. PB is good for the skater. SB is good for the fans.

After Worlds, let's work on SBs.

 

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ChrisH

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• Nov 20, 2008

• #17

C_T_T_ said:

Assuming like you said Asada and Nakano go 1-2 at NHK, I think the only result that would be bad news for Ando is Flatt or Kostner winning with Suguri 2nd.

Click to expand...

That does summarize it better. Basically, Ando's chances are best if Suguri doesn't finish 2nd. If Suguri does finish 2nd, a very likely win from either Kostner, Flatt, or Czisny would just about seal her doom.

Come to think of it, Suzuki could be dangerous at the NHK. A lot of the action seems to be centering on the Japanese ladies. (Chance would seem to say that something good will happen to at least one of the American ladies, y'know, seeing as they got 16 assignments.)