I can image quite a few scenarios , but by-the-numbers, in ISU competitions here some personal bests:Can you imagine what Caroline, Rachael and Mirai will score on jumps at that Nats?
Caroline Zhang, 176.48
Michelle Kwan 175.20
Rachael Flatt, 175.20
Mirai Nagasu, 163.84
Ashley wagner, 158.63
Never mind the Olympics, it would be beyond cool if Michelle came back to win her tenth U.S. Championship!
Internationally, I suppose it's a pipe dream after all. The winning performance at the 2010 Olympics will probably be over 200 points. Mao Asada's personal best is 199.52; Yuna Kim, 197.60; Miki Ando 195.09.
On the other hand, Shizuka Arakawa scored 191.34 at Torino with only five triples and no triple-triple combo. I don't see any reason why Michelle couldn't match that.
Last edited by Mathman; 08-21-2008 at 11:14 PM.
I think you all are missing my point about the US Nats.
The competition will NOT be judged under the 6.0 system, in which MK won in 2005 Nats and not since then. But she has to stand up to the high tech quality of the USFS' trio of stars plus a renewed Kimmie, Emily,Ashley, Bebe and how many more who are feverishly working to make it to the Olys.
Add up the points if she skates her best: jumps, spins, footowk, etc (don't forget, she hasn't trained since 2005). and compare it with the 3 stars. I doubt it would even be close.
I am sure she will skate beautifully and somewhat competitively and she will bring down the Staples Center with the loudest ROAR but.....
I'm just being realistic about a great skater who hasn't really skated for some time now. I would love to be wrong, but realistically, I think I am correct.
Caronline Zhang's score (higher than Kwan's) is from the Senior-GPF - but she only had 5 triples in that program, the second lutz was underrotated, edge-called and she fell on it (which pretty much everything that can go wrong with a jump).
So how would have Flatt's Junior Worlds program scored at the Senior-GPF? That was a solid 7 Triple performance with just one edge call. And after the funny differences in the scoring between 4CC and Worlds (where a clean performance at Worlds somehow scored less than a sketchy one at 4CC , e.g. Buttle's short) I don't think we can trust the scores anyway if we want to determine future results / chances.
And we shouldn't forget that the edge calls and underrotation rules weren't in place when Kwan competed the last time - her lutz isn't one with a perfect outside edge, and would she nowadays escape those pesky underrotation calls?