I can image quite a few scenarios , but by-the-numbers, in ISU competitions here some personal bests:Can you imagine what Caroline, Rachael and Mirai will score on jumps at that Nats?
Caroline Zhang, 176.48
Michelle Kwan 175.20
Rachael Flatt, 175.20
Mirai Nagasu, 163.84
Ashley wagner, 158.63
Never mind the Olympics, it would be beyond cool if Michelle came back to win her tenth U.S. Championship!
Internationally, I suppose it's a pipe dream after all. The winning performance at the 2010 Olympics will probably be over 200 points. Mao Asada's personal best is 199.52; Yuna Kim, 197.60; Miki Ando 195.09.
On the other hand, Shizuka Arakawa scored 191.34 at Torino with only five triples and no triple-triple combo. I don't see any reason why Michelle couldn't match that.
Last edited by Mathman; 08-21-2008 at 11:14 PM.
I think you all are missing my point about the US Nats.
The competition will NOT be judged under the 6.0 system, in which MK won in 2005 Nats and not since then. But she has to stand up to the high tech quality of the USFS' trio of stars plus a renewed Kimmie, Emily,Ashley, Bebe and how many more who are feverishly working to make it to the Olys.
Add up the points if she skates her best: jumps, spins, footowk, etc (don't forget, she hasn't trained since 2005). and compare it with the 3 stars. I doubt it would even be close.
I am sure she will skate beautifully and somewhat competitively and she will bring down the Staples Center with the loudest ROAR but.....
I'm just being realistic about a great skater who hasn't really skated for some time now. I would love to be wrong, but realistically, I think I am correct.
Caronline Zhang's score (higher than Kwan's) is from the Senior-GPF - but she only had 5 triples in that program, the second lutz was underrotated, edge-called and she fell on it (which pretty much everything that can go wrong with a jump).
So how would have Flatt's Junior Worlds program scored at the Senior-GPF? That was a solid 7 Triple performance with just one edge call. And after the funny differences in the scoring between 4CC and Worlds (where a clean performance at Worlds somehow scored less than a sketchy one at 4CC , e.g. Buttle's short) I don't think we can trust the scores anyway if we want to determine future results / chances.
And we shouldn't forget that the edge calls and underrotation rules weren't in place when Kwan competed the last time - her lutz isn't one with a perfect outside edge, and would she nowadays escape those pesky underrotation calls?
Last edited by jenaj; 08-23-2008 at 11:42 PM. Reason: fix quote
Kwan hasn't competed at US Nationals since 2005, you make it sound as if she did and didn't win under IJS in the comment that her "last win was under 6.0".
Kwan with her peak level of skills (3/3 ability - don't think she only had a 3T-3T, there were more in there, speed, spirals, steps, and spins) could easily compete with the top skaters.
The question more is: would she be able to regain those peak skills?
and your question about will she be able to regain her previous peak is a very valid question. Will she put in the time to train for that? Also, if you add more tech, will she be able to catch up to the higher standard of of today's Caroline, Mirai and Rachael.
MK was never a spinner. Big question would be if the surgery was successful, will she be able to spin faster and with a Bielman?
If she actually skates in a Regional/Sectional it will be remarkable if she places. If she skates in the US Nats and places, it will be the biggest comeback in figure skating history.
Last edited by Kathy; 08-22-2008 at 10:29 PM.
No one did a triple-triple of any sort in these contests. Whether Michelle could skate at this level depends on how successful her surgery was. Will she be able to do a loop jump at all on her repaired hip?That's a different thing altogether. At U.S, Nationals last year, Nagasu did 3Lz+3T in both SP and LP (with an underrotation on the second jump in the LP)If she skates in the US Nats and places, it will be the biggest comeback in figure skating history.
Rachael Flatt did 3Lz+3T in both SP and LP
Ashley Wagner did 3Lz+3Lo in both SP and LP
Caroline Zhange did 3F+3T in both SP and LP (underrotation -- qestionable -- on the second jump in the SP)
That's a lot of points to make up if Michelle's biggest point-getter is 3Lz+2T.
I agree, it would be the greatest achievement of her career if she came back and made the podium in 2010. Still...she's not Michelle Kwan for nothing.
Last edited by Mathman; 08-22-2008 at 11:45 PM.
I think all athletes need closure (I know I do). Kwan was never able to give us a proper goodbye and might still want do a final competition to close out her career.
She may want the final Roar Of The Crowd, and she certainly deserves it.
There are so many hopes and ifs to think about her competitively. Yet I like the idea of the present 3 top US Ladies going into Vancouver.
btw, we haven't discussed the two for Cleveland and whether they can muster up 13 points to give a 3 for 2010. But that's another thread.