Michelle on the Today Show

Joesitz (RIP) · Aug 22, 2008

antmanb said:
I don't know Joe, did you miss this:

Ant, as I said, I have not stopped thinking she isn't the greatest skater ever but the CoP says scores will win. MM scores are probably correct but the sources are from judges who have always carried MK in the past - even to the secret test for the Olys. With Sasha Cohen's best scores, wouldn't she be on that list? and I don't think her PB would give her an easy time at 2009 US Nats.

I'm just being realistic about a great skater who hasn't really skated for some time now. I would love to be wrong, but realistically, I think I am correct.

Medusa · Aug 22, 2008

Joesitz said:
I'm just being realistic about a great skater who hasn't really skated for some time now. I would love to be wrong, but realistically, I think I am correct.

Flatt's and Nagasu's scores are junior scores. So there is the required jump in the short, only three spins in the long.

Caronline Zhang's score (higher than Kwan's) is from the Senior-GPF - but she only had 5 triples in that program, the second lutz was underrotated, edge-called and she fell on it (which pretty much everything that can go wrong with a jump).

So how would have Flatt's Junior Worlds program scored at the Senior-GPF? That was a solid 7 Triple performance with just one edge call. And after the funny differences in the scoring between 4CC and Worlds (where a clean performance at Worlds somehow scored less than a sketchy one at 4CC , e.g. Buttle's short) I don't think we can trust the scores anyway if we want to determine future results / chances.

And we shouldn't forget that the edge calls and underrotation rules weren't in place when Kwan competed the last time - her lutz isn't one with a perfect outside edge, and would she nowadays escape those pesky underrotation calls?

jenaj · Aug 22, 2008

Joesitz said:
I think you all are missing my point about the US Nats.

The competition will NOT be judged under the 6.0 system, in which MK won in 2005 Nats and not since then.

But she has to stand up to the high tech quality of the USFS' trio of stars plus a renewed Kimmie, Emily,Ashley, Bebe and how many more who are feverishly working to make it to the Olys.

I kind of think everyone knows by now that US Nats are not judged under 6.0.

And I have to say that I think Michelle could beat Emily and Bebe blindfolded, and Ashley and Kimmie if she comes back with her old form.

mskater93 · Aug 22, 2008

Kwan hasn't competed at US Nationals since 2005, you make it sound as if she did and didn't win under IJS in the comment that her "last win was under 6.0".

Kwan with her peak level of skills (3/3 ability - don't think she only had a 3T-3T, there were more in there, speed, spirals, steps, and spins) could easily compete with the top skaters.

The question more is: would she be able to regain those peak skills?

Joesitz (RIP) · Aug 22, 2008

mskater93 said:
Kwan hasn't competed at US Nationals since 2005, you make it sound as if she did and didn't win under IJS in the comment that her "last win was under 6.0".

Kwan with her peak level of skills (3/3 ability - don't think she only had a 3T-3T, there were more in there, speed, spirals, steps, and spins) could easily compete with the top skaters.

The question more is: would she be able to regain those peak skills?

When was the last time MK did a 3Tx3T?

and your question about will she be able to regain her previous peak is a very valid question. Will she put in the time to train for that? Also, if you add more tech, will she be able to catch up to the higher standard of of today's Caroline, Mirai and Rachael.

MK was never a spinner. Big question would be if the surgery was successful, will she be able to spin faster and with a Bielman?

If she actually skates in a Regional/Sectional it will be remarkable if she places. If she skates in the US Nats and places, it will be the biggest comeback in figure skating history.

Kathy · Aug 22, 2008

Joesitz said:
When was the last time MK did a 3Tx3T?

and your question about will she be able to regain her previous peak is a very valid question. Will she put in the time to train for that? Also, if you add more tech, will she be able to catch up to the higher standard of of today's Caroline, Mirai and Rachael.

MK was never a spinner. Big question would be if the surgery was successful, will she be able to spin faster and with a Bielman?

If she actually skates in a Regional/Sectional it will be remarkable if she places. If she skates in the US Nats and places, it will be the biggest comeback in figure skating history.

While I agree that if Michelle wins Nationals it would be an amazing come back - I must have been watching different skaters than you these last few years. The only technical advantage Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael have over Michelle is the triple/triples they're doing. New rules make the bielman unnecessary. All of their other skating skills cannot compare to hers - honestly they look like children with tiny slow strokes in the case of Caroline and Mirai, and sloppy posture in the case of Rachael. And her spins will be fine - fast and centered - not as bendy as the kids but very solid technically. Now don't get me wrong I like them all - but Michelle Kwan they're not. Now the next two years for them could bring maturity or crisis with the changes in their bodies. Look at what happened to Kimmie. And with the deductions on wrong edge take offs I think we will see a reduction in ratified 3/3's as so many of them the last 3 season have been cheated. Who knows, but if Michelle can get a triple triple consistant - she will be competitive with them easily I think - and yes that's a big if. I can't believe your seeing the same skaters as I am if you think any of them have the edging or qualitiy of footwork MK has - not to mention the artistry, confidence, consistancy, and performance ability. Now the ones I do worry about are Yu Na and Mao - that would be a challenge - then again I would not count her out if she goes for this.

Mathman · Aug 23, 2008

Joesitz said:
If she actually skates in a Regional/Sectional it will be remarkable if she places.

I think she might have a chance. Last year Tenile Victorsen won Pacific Coast Sectionals with 3S, 3Lo, 3T, 2A, 3T, 3S+2T+2T, 2A+2T. Ye Bin Mok won the LP at Southwest Pacific Regionals with 3T, 3S, 2A, 3T, 2A, 2F+2T, 2A.

No one did a triple-triple of any sort in these contests. Whether Michelle could skate at this level depends on how successful her surgery was. Will she be able to do a loop jump at all on her repaired hip?

If she skates in the US Nats and places, it will be the biggest comeback in figure skating history.

That's a different thing altogether. At U.S, Nationals last year, Nagasu did 3Lz+3T in both SP and LP (with an underrotation on the second jump in the LP)

Rachael Flatt did 3Lz+3T in both SP and LP

Ashley Wagner did 3Lz+3Lo in both SP and LP

Caroline Zhange did 3F+3T in both SP and LP (underrotation -- qestionable -- on the second jump in the SP)

That's a lot of points to make up if Michelle's biggest point-getter is 3Lz+2T.

I agree, it would be the greatest achievement of her career if she came back and made the podium in 2010. Still...she's not Michelle Kwan for nothing. :clap:

MasterB · Aug 23, 2008

I think all athletes need closure (I know I do). Kwan was never able to give us a proper goodbye and might still want do a final competition to close out her career.

Joesitz (RIP) · Aug 23, 2008

She may want the final Roar Of The Crowd, and she certainly deserves it.

There are so many hopes and ifs to think about her competitively. Yet I like the idea of the present 3 top US Ladies going into Vancouver.

btw, we haven't discussed the two for Cleveland and whether they can muster up 13 points to give a 3 for 2010. But that's another thread.

Tinymavy15 · Aug 24, 2008

MasterB said:
I think all athletes need closure (I know I do). Kwan was never able to give us a proper goodbye and might still want do a final competition to close out her career.

I think she should skate in the Nationals Gala as her goodbye and I would :love:

to see her do commentary, but she seems uninterested there.

nubka · Aug 26, 2008

jenaj said:
And I have to say that I think Michelle could beat Emily and Bebe blindfolded, and Ashley and Kimmie if she comes back with her old form.

You are probably right, but if Michelle did try for a comeback, those four skaters would be the least of her worries...

antmanb · Aug 27, 2008

Joesitz said:
Ant, as I said, I have not stopped thinking she isn't the greatest skater ever but the CoP says scores will win. MM scores are probably correct but the sources are from judges who have always carried MK in the past - even to the secret test for the Olys. With Sasha Cohen's best scores, wouldn't she be on that list? and I don't think her PB would give her an easy time at 2009 US Nats.

I'm just being realistic about a great skater who hasn't really skated for some time now. I would love to be wrong, but realistically, I think I am correct.

No no, don't get me wrong i agree with what you wrote but i was just surprised that on the list of PBs Michelle's was as high as it was. Obviously that PB came from a COP competition, albeit not nationals. No doubt, some of those scores related to skaters in juniors who from memory are missing a couple of elements, therefore the score would be higher but given what we saw of Michelle under COP i didn't think she'd be anywhere near the top let alone second. I suspect MM left Sasha off the list because she doesn't seem to be talking of any comebacks, though i'm sure her PB would sit at the top of the list.

In reality i don't think she will come back, if she does i will cheers her on and enjoy whatever competitive program she gives us. In all likelihood her body would give out before she managed to compete - that's what happened last time.

Ant

Mathman · Aug 27, 2008

Michelle competed only once under the new judging system. That was 2005 Worlds, so of course that is her "personal best" under the CoP. She finished fourth.

Rachael Flatt's best score was at 2008 Junior Worlds. Caroline Zhang's personal best came at the 2008 Grand Prix final, Mirai Nagasu's was at 2007 Junior Worlds, and Ashley Wagner's top score was at 2007 Eric Bompard. All of them scored much higher at 2008 U.S. Nationals.

Sasha is still number three on the all-time list. In 2003, the first year of the CoP, Sasha ruled the roost on the Grand Prix circuit. She scored 198.06 at Skate Canada. The next year the ISU tweaked the scoring system and scores dropped dramatically for a couple of years.

Number one on the list is Mao Asada, 199.52 at 2006 NHK in Japan and number two is Irina Slutskaya, 2005 Cup of Russia.

Kimmie Meissner is the highest ranking active U.S. skater in terms of personal best. 189.87 at 2006 Worlds.

SeaniBu · Aug 30, 2008

antmanb said:
In reality i don't think she will come back, ...
Ant

As likely as Mathman not posting on a thread that has the name Michelle in it.

Bennett · Aug 30, 2008

I'm kind of surprised when she said that. I didn't think that she would come back. I am really surprised. I am afraid OGM would be very difficult for her. I am also afraid that I am doubtful if she could make the team. But saying it on TV is a big thing. Perhaps she would have thought about it a lot before saying so.

mycelticblessing · Aug 31, 2008

MasterB said:
I think all athletes need closure (I know I do). Kwan was never able to give us a proper goodbye and might still want do a final competition to close out her career.

I would love to see her skate in a final competition. It would be like Silvia Fontana's skate in Turin, when its no longer about her placement, or medals. But just skating for herself and for the audience who adores her.

What would really be great, is if she got to skate to Rachmaninov's Prelude in C# Minor. It's such a pity that she wasn't able to perform to it in 2006.

Mathman · Aug 31, 2008

Bennett said:
I'm kind of surprised when she said that. I didn't think that she would come back. I am really surprised.... But saying it on TV is a big thing. Perhaps she would have thought about it a lot before saying so.

Well, what she said on TV was that she admires Dara Torres, that attending the Olympic games got her excited about sports again, that her main priority is school, that she would like to continue her work with the State Department, that she feels like "something is missing" from her medal collection and she hasn't closed any doors about the future.

Pretty thin gruel for speculation either by fans or by skeptics, IMHO.

heyang · Sep 1, 2008

I would love to see Michelle in a final competition. Her Turin programs were reported as being competitive and I'd love to see her perform them. Even if she doesn't win, it would be something to see.

Also, as far as it promoting figure skating, ticket sales would likely soar. The year she replaced Sarah Hughes at Skate America, sales doubled within hours of the announcement. The networks would promote it like crazy and I'm pretty sure viewship would go up.

So, there's lots of bonuses to Michelle returning to competition - even if it is only a farewell.

Fossi · Sep 1, 2008

I cant see Michelle coming back.

Bennett · Sep 1, 2008

Mathman said:
Well, what she said on TV was that she admires Dara Torres, that attending the Olympic games got her excited about sports again, that her main priority is school, that she would like to continue her work with the State Department, that she feels like "something is missing" from her medal collection and she hasn't closed any doors about the future.

Pretty thin gruel for speculation either by fans or by skeptics, IMHO.

Then was that some kind of suggestive lip service to make the show more appealing to the audience?

Michelle on the Today Show

Joesitz (RIP)

Medusa

jenaj

mskater93

Joesitz (RIP)

Kathy

Mathman

MasterB

Joesitz (RIP)

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win

nubka

antmanb

Mathman

SeaniBu

Bennett

mycelticblessing

Mathman

heyang

Fossi

Bennett

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