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  1. #1
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Event Previews:

    Ice Dance:

    The CD will be the Paso Doble. Here's a reference file on the dance that includes step charts and videos of famous ice dancers of the past performing the dance:

    http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22954

    IMO, the two top teams at Merano are:

    Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Jonathan GUERREIRO RUS
    They were 6th at last year's Jr. Worlds. Their best ever total score was 153.72 . They were 2nd at Chemnitz & Harghit and qualified for the JGPF, where they finished 8th (last)

    FD from Jr. Worlds (Perfidia):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dziXX4ByFxM
    OD From Jr Worlds (sadly another Russian Gypsy):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v41FidmTGOY
    CD from Jr. Worlds (Cha Cha Congelado)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmfX89m97Ac

    Madison CHOCK / Greg ZUERLEIN USA
    Chock & Zuerlein were not sent to Jr. Worlds by the US (they finished 3rd in Jrs at Nationals) but did qualify for the JGPF by finishing 1st at Tailinn and third at Chemnitz. They finished 5th in the JGPF. Their best total score is 152.68

    Their US nationals performance can be viewed on icenetwork.com

    Here's a photo from their Lake Placid OD
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...n_6462.jpg.php

    They finished 2nd in the OD, just behind the Shibutanis who won at Courchevel, with a score of 47.97.

    They won their section of the FD with 70.89.

    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...DB-NEW.jpg.php

    Alas, I have no vid of them skating together (other than that you can see that at the US championships on icenetwork, and somewhere there is a home video of them at Tallinn last year, which I have yet to find a current copy of.

    However, here's Madison skating with her previous partner, Kurt Lingenfelter, back in 2005:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y70sRTDGxkI


    This is an Italian event, and I would be surprised if Lorenza ALESSANDRINI / Simone VATURI ITA did not do well. Vaturi and Alessandrini were 6th at both Zagreb and Chemnitz events last year.

    Here's a vid of their 2008 OD from the Italian Championships:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Okh4P2j_tHk


    I really didn't expect Isabella CANNUSCIO / Ian LORELLO USA to contend for the medals, but also I don't know a lot about the teams here at Merano. They were 9th at US juniors, 4th at Harghita and 8th at Sofia. They did compete at Lake Placid this year. Their CD's are improved at bit from Nationals, but are still their weakness. Here's 2 photos from their Paso Doble at Lake Placid. They finished 4th behind Wolf & Ainsworth.

    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...orello.JPG.php
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...orello.jpg.php

    However, the reviewer from ice-dance.com thought their OD had great energy and that they really 'got' the rhythm this year. ( They are doing Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy) More importantly, they finished 4th in their section of the OD, a mere fraction of a point behind Ralph & Hill, who got the silver at Courchevel, so they might sneak in for the bronze here. They scored 41.52.

    A shot from their OD
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...rello4.jpg.php

    And then they finished second to Chock and Zuerlein in their FD with a 65.28 (in the same section, Ralph & Hill finished 4th). The more I think about it, the more possible it seems C&L might pull off a surprise bronze medal. But it would still be a surprise.

    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...d-1529.jpg.php

    Here's their FD from JGP Bulgaria last year
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xmAOH6ofiw

    Other entrants of note:

    Sophie KNIPPEL & Andrew BRITTEN CAN were 3rd in Canadian Juniors last year.

    Here's a photo from their Paso Doble CD:
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...ritten.JPG.php

    And from their OD:
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...n_6260.jpg.php

    And their FD-they finished 8th at Lake Placid with 59.54.
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...d-0967.jpg.php



    Tarrah HARVEY / Keith GAGNON CAN
    were 4th in Canadian Juniors last year. There is an article about them at ice-dance.com.
    http://www.ice-dance.com/articles/in...non-61908.html

    A photo from their Lake Placid Paso Doble:

    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...Gagnon.jpg.php

    And their Lake Placid OD
    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...n_6384.jpg.php

    They finished 5th with a 40.55 in the OD at Lake Placid. They also finished 5th in the FD with 60.5

    http://photography.ice-dance.com/200...d-4827.jpg.php

    Emese Laszlo & Mate Fejes(HUN) and were 20th at Jr. Worlds

    Kiudmaa & Trohlev (EST) were 29th at Jr. Worlds.

    Finally, there are a number of teams listed as substitutes. These include some teams that did well in Courchevel, including Mysliveckova & Novak (3rd at Courchevel) and Findlay & Benoit (4th at Courchevel). I don't know under what conditions these teams would substitute.. If either were enrolled, I would expect them to do well.


    Men

    I think this event is Michal BREZINA's CZE to lose, particularly after his very impressive 184.40 total point win in Courchevel.


    Michal Brezina LP
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmqGTO3vNMU
    Michal Brezina SP
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy1R8YVKsq8

    However, there are some interesting skaters who will be fighting for the other 2 medals:

    Of course, Florent AMODIO FRA, third at Courchevel with 171.69 points will be right there. EXCEPT THAT HE WITHDREW :(

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEbUzftAA6A
    Florent Amodio LP
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ve_28AW1Ghc
    Florent Amodio SP
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXQ7M4yIiBs&feature=user
    Florent Amodio Gala
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd1bd...eature=related

    Ivan BARIEV RUS has had a total point score as high as 175.06 when he finished 7th at the World Jr. Championships last year. edited to add, sadly he withdrew :(

    I think those were originally the most likely medallists. Another contender for the top 4:
    Curran OI USA, was 5th at the JGPF last year. His highest total score is 159.86. However, he now has a triple axel. He skated at Liberty and did very well:

    Here's his SP to Phantom of the Opera where he finished 4th in Seniors with 59.70:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hwi6MpdyFKg

    And his LP to On the Waterfront soundtrack, where he finished 2nd to Patrick Chan of Canada in Seniors with a score of 119.70
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuPAfLlm5q8

    If you added those, his total would be 179.40
    That could well put him into the bronze medal.

    Daniel O'SHEA USA was the US Novice Men's champion. I don't expect him to medal here, but one never knows. That's the fun of skating.

    His most recent novice win can be seen on icenetwork, US Championships. However, here's a video of him as a little tyke back in 2005:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXUuIqxeuaM

    Yuzuru Hanyu JPN

    Yuzuru Hanyu from Japan is just up from Novices - Here he is last year at age 12 at the Japanese National Championships.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eu89vC7xJGE


    Ladies

    There are a number of ladies who have had impressive performances in the past, but no one who stands out as a slam dunk to me. Here's my guess at the top 5 in no particular order--and I may definitely have missed a standout or two, so I hope you'll chime in yourselves.

    Sarah HECKEN GER
    Sarah won the gold medal at Chemnitz last year with a total score of 134.05. I'm hoping she's back in great shape here.

    Here's her SP from Jr. Worlds
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVCw1AFI8cI

    Svetlana ISSAKOVA EST was 7th in the JGPF last year. she was 2nd in Sheffield and 3rd in Tailinn. Her top total score is 131.50.

    Svetlana's SP from Jr. Worlds
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFq2y18FFeg

    Brittney RIZO USA

    You may not have heard of Britney. She was 3rd in US Juniors last year. However, I saw her perform at Liberty this summer. She was 3rd in Seniors in both the SP and LP. In the SP, she was ahead of Becky Bereswill who won the silver at Courchevel.

    Here's a vid of Brittney's SP at Liberty:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqQNbPv9IXQ

    You can't go from national level scores to international, but if you added her SP to her LP, it would be 132.76--however that's in seniors, so it's even less comparable to juniors.

    And an exhibition from her performance at the 2008 Aegon Cup
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsZG69hsMhM

    Rumi SUIZU JPN struggled last year, but she won the Japanese Junior nationals. And she was 5th at Worlds in 2007. I hope she has returned to 2007 form! Her top total score is 134.85. I'm probably favoring her for the gold or silver.

    Here LP from last year's Japanese Nationals
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFAqgEmqNCA

    Her SP from Jr. Worlds where she did not do as well as I expected
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVQoE...eature=related

    Joshi HELGESSON SWE was 7th at Jr. Worlds last year. I expect her to do quite well here. Her highest total score was 130.40

    You should be able to find her Jr. World vid on the isu website or on icenetwork.com.

    Others to watch:

    Melissa BULANHAGUI USA

    Melissa has been skating in US Seniors and finished 8th in 2008. Here's her SP from 2007
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OGAZOmuLWg

    and she skated her SP at Liberty this summer (she withdrew from the LP)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17-N6nYjsn4

    She made the JGPF and finished 4th there. Her top total score is 126.87.


    Alisa MIKONSAARI FIN was the top junior girl at Finnish nationals last year. I don't have any international scores from her, but the Finnish ladies are always impressive. She could do well.

    Satsuki MURAMOTO JPN top total score was 126.16. She could surprise. The Japanese girls are always impressive at first view.

    An exhibition of hers (the first half of the clip is Rumi Suizu's exhibition. The last half is Satsuki Muramoto's)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqV7ujOpP4Y

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqV7ujOpP4Y

    And Victoria Grenier was 2nd at Canadian Junior Nationals.
    I don't have any clip of hers, though.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 09-05-2008 at 01:48 PM.

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    Ice Dance:

    I agree that Riazanova/Guerreiro and Chock/Zuerlein are the top contenders in Merano.

    Cannuscio/Lorello will have to contend with a few others for a medal placement. I'd be cautious about putting too much stock in what a North American reviewer thought about C/L 'getting' the rhythm, being that "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" was a US hit. European judges rarely 'get' American rhythms: remember how they 'got' B/A's Appalachian OD last year? IMO, the Italian team A/V have the advantage of home ice and have placed well in their JGP events last season. And you can never completely discount the second Russian team. Here are some stats from last year's JGP events plus a few from Lake Placid:

    138.18 27.00 43.90 67.28 JGP GER 07, 6th, Alessandrini/Vaturi-ITA
    137.13 25.84 45.32 65.97 JGP CRO 07, 6th, Alessandrini/Vaturi-ITA

    LP 08 OD 41.52, FD 65.28 Cannuscio/Lorello-USA
    131.47 26.50 37.85 67.12 JGP BUL 07, 8th, Cannuscio/Lorello-USA
    136.27 27.23 45.51 63.53 JGP ROU 07, 4th, Cannuscio/Lorello-USA

    132.15 26.08 42.80 63.27 JGP FRA 07, 7th, Antipova/Kudashev-RUS

    Improvement could move these teams up a notch:

    LP 08 OD 40.55, FD 60.50 Harvey/Gagnon-CAN
    123.37 23.23 37.84 62.30 JGP CRO 07, 8th, Harvey-Gagnon-CAN

    121.92 23.31 40.44 58.17 JW 07, 20th, Laszlo/Fejes-HUN
    121.99 22.15 39.85 59.99 JGP CRO 07, 9th, Laszlo/Fejes-HUN
    114.03 22.29 38.48 53.26 JGP AUT 07, 11th, Laszlo/Fejes-HUN

    LP 08 OD 38.06, FD 59.34 Knippel/Britten-CAN
    113.54 24.44 36.69 52.41 JGP AUT 07, 12th, Knippel/Britten-CAN

    119.73 23.12 38.47 58.14 JGP GER 07, 12th, Lafont/Etzol-FRA
    108.81 23.77 38.15 46.89 JGP EST 07, 12th, Lafont/Etzol-FRA

    Valadzenkova/Vakunov (BLR), Kiudmaa Trohlev (EST) and Semova Lichev (BUL) have competed in previous JGPs, but with much lower results than the above teams.

    New shooters:
    Montonati/Fioretti (ITA)
    Teremtsova/Eremenko (UKR)
    Nosulia/Kholoniuk (UKR)
    Aronow/Pirogov (LTU)

    Men

    Brezina and Amodio are extremely likely to repeat as medalists.
    According to a post on another board (from a reliable source) Bariev and Gachinski are probably not going to be competing in Merano. So that moves the chances of Curran Oi to medal up a notch.

    Ladies

    Agree with these choices: Hecken, Issakova, Suizu, Matsumoto, Helgesson, Bulanhagui, Rizo. Not so sure about Mikonsaari and Vanessa Grenier.
    Last edited by chuckm; 08-31-2008 at 12:46 PM.

  3. #3
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Borrowed from FSU

    Ach, I am so sad that Bariev is out :(
    but indeed, I am happier for Curran's chances.


    ROSTER UPDATES as of 08/28:

    MEN
    GER: Martin RAPPE is out, replaced by Christopher BERNECK
    ITA: Saverio GIACOMELLI is out, replaced by Maurizio ZANDRON

    LADIES
    CZE: Nikola PROCHAZKOVA is out
    SLO: Dasa GRM is out, replaced by Anastasija USPENSKA

    DANCE
    GER: HASLINGER / FINKE are out
    ITA: PICOTTO / LESCHIUTTA are out
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 08-31-2008 at 02:45 PM.

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Cannuscio/Lorello-I'm basing my mild optimism (like top 6, not top 3) on the fact that they creamed Ralph/Hill at Lake Placid in the FD and virtually tied them in the OD That was quite a shocker to me. Unfortunately for them, their CD's are not nearly as good as their FD's.

  5. #5
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Wow, what a lot of research you did, just to help us prepare for and enjoy this event more. Thanks especially for the video links.

    Thank you thank you thank you. :

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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Cannuscio/Lorello-I'm basing my mild optimism (like top 6, not top 3) on the fact that they creamed Ralph/Hill at Lake Placid in the FD and virtually tied them in the OD That was quite a shocker to me. Unfortunately for them, their CD's are not nearly as good as their FD's.
    OK, that's a reasonable premise. But if you look at Ralph/Hill's LP scores and their Courchevel scores, you can see a HUGE improvement.

    47.89 70.98 OD/FD Ralph/Hill, Courchevel
    41.95 62.49 OD/FD Ralph/Hill, Lake Placid 08


    C/L will have to have improved quite a bit since LP to match R/H's scores in France.

    I hope they can do that.
    Last edited by chuckm; 08-31-2008 at 11:16 PM.

  7. #7
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    I have found videos of Madison Chock, Cannuscio & Lorello, Yuzuru Hanyu and Daniel O'Shea, so I edited them into the review post at the top of this thread.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 09-01-2008 at 01:12 PM.

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    Thanks for your hard work, Doris, in assembling all these links!

    Merano will be the JGP debut for 13-year-old Yuzuru HANYU of Japan, who won the Novice A Men's title in October 2007 and was invited to compete in Junior Nationals in November 2007. His "Firebird" Jr. Nationals FS (link posted above) placed first and he finished 3rd overall in the event -- repost of link (also posted above): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eu89vC7xJGE

    Here's the link to Hanyu's June 2008 "Dreams on Ice" exhibition which is his Jr. SP to "Bolero" from the Moulin Rouge soundtrack: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ef6juw124E
    Last edited by Sylvia; 09-01-2008 at 02:22 PM.

  9. #9
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Sylvia, Thanks so much for the link to Hanyu's SP (as an EX)!!!

    This couple was just added to ice dance:

    Victoria SINITSINA / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN RUS

    They also might win the bronze medal here.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 09-01-2008 at 05:03 PM.

  10. #10
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    Wow, Doris, thank you. I have a lot to look at during this week.

    Without looking, I can imagine Brezina as the odds on favorite with Amodio not to far behind. Oi has been better than expected on occasion. O'Shea didn't grab me for that EX he did after winning Novice, so I will pay more attention now. I was looking forward to seeing Gachinsky. Hope he's ok.

    I expect Rizo to be 'on' in her LP, and hoping Bulanhague makes a statement. Suizu looked very promising at one of those gps last season, and I think Helegesson was a surprise to everyone.

    Riazanova/Guereiro, I remember being very impressed with last season. I also liked. I need another look at Chock/Guerlain this season.

    Hopefully we get some Youtubes going here.

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    JGP-Italy

    Good job Doris. There's a nice event preview on Ice Dance at Ice-dance.com as well.

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    I'm surprised Rumi Suizu didn't get senior gp assignment. Was it her own decision to stay junior?

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    Rumi Suizu beat Yuki Nishino to win the 2008 Junior National Championship, and both Rumi Yuki were invited to compete in 2008 Seniors. Yuki finished 10th there, and Rumi, 11th.

    Japan pretty much bases the selection of ladies eligible for the GP on Nationals results. The top 6 at Senior Nationals were Asada, Ando, Nakano, Suguri, Suzuki and Takeda, and those are the ladies doing the GP.

    Rumi at 11th place is far out of the running for the GP. She is 17 and will have one more year of eligibility after this season, so she may even do the JGP again next season if she doesn't make it into the top 6 at Japanese Nationals.

    Rumi had a very disappointing 16th place at JW 2008 after finishing 5th in 2007. I can't help wondering if perhaps she was injured or suffering from a growth spurt. She competes this week at JGP Merano, so we'll see if she's skating better now.

  14. #14
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by samba View Post
    Good job Doris. There's a nice event preview on Ice Dance at Ice-dance.com as well.
    Thanks samba for the info about the ice-dance preview. Here's the link, for the convenience of the readers here:

    http://www.ice-dance.com/events-resu...jgpmerano.html


    I found this snippet interesting:

    Like their neighbors south of the border[Cannuscio & Lorello], Knippel & Britten struggled with the Paso in Placid, placing only 14th in their group. Although they did not fall, two judges gave them only 1.0 for timing of the dance. Together since 2007, Knippel & Britten train in Barrie, Ontario and are competing in their second season on the JGP. Last year, they were 12th at the Vienna Cup.
    This increases my hope for C&L-obviously, if they fell, they can do the Paso better than that. However, K&B having timing that bad is really

    But then timing is a really big deal for me, more than say, line, or extension-if the dancers aren't keeping time, to me they cease to be dancing, and I don't enjoy watching.

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    Skating orders are up http://www.isufs.org/results/jgpita2008/.

    Amodio has apparently withdrawn. I hope he's not injured, but that means more medals are available for the other men.

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