Ladies qualifying

Here are the current standings halfway through:
1 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 71
2 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 15 1 148.25 1 97.93 97.93 50.32 36
3 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 5 1 143.02 1 89.84 89.84 53.18 35
4 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 15 1 139.44 1 88.98 88.98 50.46 27
5 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA 15 15 1 127.25 1 76.89 76.89 50.36 36
6 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 13 2 136.59 1 93.44 93.44 43.15 36
7 Alexe GILLES USA 13 13 2 136.46 1 86.55 86.55 49.91 27
8 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 2 134.98 1 83.24 83.24 51.74 35
http://www.isufs.org/events/jgp2008/jgpsladies.htm

I believe that Yukiko, Kristine, Amanda, Melissa, Angela, and Alexe will follow through and qualify. That's 6 out of 8.

For the other 2 spots, much will depend on where Yukiko, Diane Szmiett, and Cecylia Witkowski have their 2nd assignment. Cape Town is already a tough draw with Alexe, Amanda, Rumi Suizu, Sarah Hecken, and Yuki Nishino, so I'll assume that Yukiko will skate in Sheffield. It is perhaps too late to move Rylie Mcculloch-Casarsa out of Madrid, so I'll assume that Diane will skate in Gomel and Cecylia in Sheffield.

At 13 points are Becky and Rumi. Becky looks well positioned for 2nd place as Diane Szmiett and Stefania, who finished 3rd and 4th behind her in Courchevel, aren't competing against her in Madrid. It's likely then that they'll only be 1 spot in the JGPF remaining. Rumi is in that tough draw in Cape Town. A 3rd place finish would likely lose out due to tiebreakers. Rumi will need a 2nd place against that tough crowd.

At 11 points are Diane, Sarah, and Min-Jung Kwak. Diane could qualify with a 2nd place in Gomel due to tiebreakers. Same with Sarah in Cape Town and Min-Jung in Sheffield, but with higher scores than Diane.

At 9 points are Shoko Ishikawa, Brittney, and Cecylia Witkowski. I think it'll take a win to get in from this far down. I believe that Brittney can do it.

So I'm expecting that to qualify, 24 points with a good tiebreaker will be needed.

These are the scores of some of the top ladies:

148.25 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN Czech Republic
143.02 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA France
139.44 Amanda DOBBS USA Mexico
136.59 Angela MAXWELL USA Czech Republic
136.46 Alexe GILLES USA Mexico
134.90 Stefania BERTON ITA Czech Republic
134.98 Becky BERESWILL USA France
133.54 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN Czech Republic
127.25 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA Italy
126.58 Diane SZMIETT CAN France

ChrisH said:

At 9 points are Shoko Ishikawa, Brittney, and Cecylia Witkowski. I think it'll take a win to get in from this far down. I believe that Brittney can do it.

So I'm expecting that to qualify, 24 points with a good tiebreaker will be needed.

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Last year, both Gilles and Musademba qualified with a 2nd and 4th place finish.

The scores for these three are:

133.54 Shoko ISHIKAWA
117.19 Brittney RIZO
109.78 Cecylia WITKOWSKI

Their jump content in previous events:

Ishikawa
SP: 3F+2T, 3Lz (!), 2A; LP: 3Lz, 3F+2T, 3S, 2A, 2F (planned triple, I'm guessing?), 3S<+SEQ, 3T+1T
Rizo:
SP: 2Lz, 3T+3T<, 2A; LP: 3Lo+2T, 3T(x=fall), 2A, 2A, 3S<+2T, 3T+SEQ, 3S<(x)
Witkowski:
SP: 2A, 3T+2T, 2Lz; LP: 3T, 1S, 2A+A+SEQ, 2Lo, 3T+1T, 1A, 1F

Ishikawa is scheduled for Sheffield, Rizo and Witkowski are scheduled for Belarus.

oleada said:

These are the scores of some of the top ladies:


The scores for these three are:

133.54 Shoko ISHIKAWA
117.19 Brittney RIZO
109.78 Cecylia WITKOWSKI

Their jump content in previous events:

Ishikawa
SP: 3F+2T, 3Lz (!), 2A; LP: 3Lz, 3F+2T, 3S, 2A, 2F (planned triple, I'm guessing?), 3S<+SEQ, 3T+1T
Rizo:
SP: 2Lz, 3T+3T<, 2A; LP: 3Lo+2T, 3T(x=fall), 2A, 2A, 3S<+2T, 3T+SEQ, 3S<(x)
Witkowski:
SP: 2A, 3T+2T, 2Lz; LP: 3T, 1S, 2A+A+SEQ, 2Lo, 3T+1T, 1A, 1F

Ishikawa is scheduled for Sheffield, Rizo and Witkowski are scheduled for Belarus.

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Bear in mind that 117.19 is one of the worst scores that Brittney Rizo has had in a long, long time. She scored over 150 winning the Challenge Cup last spring. She finished right behind Alexe Gilles at Liberty in July, scoring 132.76, and beat both Becky Bereswill and Kristine Musademba.

I am wondering if perhaps the altitude in Merano (it is in the foothills of the Alps) took a toll on her.

I expect her to do a lot better in Belarus.

Nothing was implied by my post - I just meant to provide the info. I quite enjoyed Brittney's skate at US Nationals.

oleada said:

Last year, both Gilles and Musademba qualified with a 2nd and 4th place finish.

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Yes, 22 points was usually enough during the last 2 or 3 years. 24 points was needed at least once before, though. I'm thinking that with Gilles, Musademba, and Rizo of the USA and Nishino and Suizu of Japan declining to move up to seniors, the added depth will raise that qualifying number. Most of the spots should be taken by those with 30, 28, or 26 points. 22 points shouldn't be enough this year. Of course Nishino no longer has a chance of qualifying and she might be a spoiler. By spoilers, I mean those who have no chance of making it to the final but who can knock someone else out (and thus possibly lower the qualifying number from 24 to 22). Joshi Helgelsson and whichever alternate the USFS assigns for Sheffield might also be spoilers.

133.54 Shoko ISHIKAWA

SP: 3F+2T, 3Lz (!), 2A; LP: 3Lz, 3F+2T, 3S, 2A, 2F (planned triple, I'm guessing?), 3S<+SEQ, 3T+1T

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I just noticed that in the LP, Shoko's 3Lz got good GOE and her 3F+2T was clean. She may be just as talented as Brittney, but she should have much tougher competition in Sheffield (whomever the USFS assigns there won't have it easy) than Brittney does in Gomel. I doubt that Shoko's good score in her 1st event will come into play as part of a tiebreaker.

ChrisH said:

Nishino and Suizu of Japan declining to move up to seniors

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It's not so much 'declining' to move up to Seniors, it's that the competition in Seniors is too tough. Suizu and Nishino don't get scores anywhere near high enough to finiish in th top 6, which is where skaters need to be to be put on the list to get GP invitations. Last season, Nishino was 10th and Suizu 11th at Japanese Senior Nationals, with scores of 137.51 and 136.27. The lowest score in the top 6 was 157.97.

You can move up to Seniors insofar as competing at Senior Nationals, but that doesn't mean you will get assignments in Senior events. That is true in both Japan and the US. If Suizu and Nishino wanted to skate internationally, it would have to be at the Junior level.

Nishino no longer has a chance of qualifying and she might be a spoiler.

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Japan, like the US and Canada, makes their future assignments provisional, depending on the results of the first assignment. It is possible that Nishino will be bumped from her RSA spot by another skater. Nishino scored just 98.90 in Courchevel (and you thought Maxwell's Lake Placid 120 was low!). Nakamura (with 7 points) and Yuka Ishikawa (with 9) scored more than 10 points higher than that. Then there are Murakami, Suzuki, Imai and Kana Muramoto yet to skate. If one or more of them medals or has an impressive performance, Nishino could easily be out.

The JSF wants to get as many skaters as possible into the JGPF. Sending a skater with 0 points to one of the final competitions is not the way to do that---a "spoiler" can work negatively against a federation's own skaters. Rumi Suizu (with 13 points and 121.97) is already at a disadvantage in South Africa against Gilles and Dobbs, and Sarah Hecken will almost certainly score better in her second event than she did in her first. Suizu could be looking at 4th place in RSA---which could still qualify her for the JGPF. But if Nishino was sent to RSA and won a medal, she would knock Suizu out of contention for the JGPF without being able to go herself---a lose/lose proposition.

chuckm said:

It's not so much 'declining' to move up to Seniors, it's that the competition in Seniors is too tough ... If Suizu and Nishino wanted to skate internationally, it would have to be at the Junior level.

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I appreciate the fact that you might just be trying to be informative, but that is not necessarily true and has little relevance to the point I was making and to the topic in general.

Japan, like the US and Canada, makes their future assignments provisional, depending on the results of the first assignment. It is possible that Nishino will be bumped from her RSA spot by another skater. Nishino scored just 98.90 in Courchevel (and you thought Maxwell's Lake Placid 120 was low) ...

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Thanks. That could be relevant to the topic except for that out-of-context statement about Angela.

... The JSF wants to get as many skaters as possible into the JGPF. Sending a skater with 0 points to one of the final competitions is not the way to do that ... Suizu could be looking at 4th place in RSA---which could still qualify her for the JGPF. But if Nishino was sent to RSA and won a medal, she would knock Suizu out of contention for the JGPF without being able to go herself---a lose/lose proposition.

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That also depends on how Nishino is skating and how much loyalty the JSF has to her. It's not necessarily a lose/lose situation for Nishino. Anyways, Nishino was mentioned because she's one of those ladies who really stands a chance to impact the qualifying. Which of those other Japanese ladies that you mentioned do you really believe stands a non-trivial chance to impact the qualifying?

Gilles and Dobbs, and Sarah Hecken will almost certainly score better in her second event than she did in her first.

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So you agree that it's pretty much official that Gilles and Dobbs will be at Cape Town. The USFS has played with the assignments for the last two JGP events in the past, perhaps in an attempt to get as you say, as many skaters into the JGPF as possible.

ChrisH said:

Which of those other Japanese ladies that you mentioned do you really believe stands a non-trivial chance to impact the qualifying?

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I'm not Chuckm, but I believe Shoko Ishikawa has a solid chance to qualify - she had two good solid skates, decent scores, finished top three in both segments and by luck of the draw did not medal. If she can finish 2nd or 1st in her next event, she could easily be in the final - she already has the tiebreak in her favor, since her score is much higher than the other fourth place finishers so far. She's been semi consistent, having had good skates at Japanese Natioanls and in other minor internationals.

I'd have to say I wouldn't agree with sending Nishino to another JGP. I like her, but her performance at her first event doesn't merit a second assignment. Besides, she has a full year of experience in the JGP - why not give another girl a chance?

oleada said:

I'm not Chuckm, but I believe Shoko Ishikawa has a solid chance to qualify - she had two good solid skates, decent scores, finished top three in both segments and by luck of the draw did not medal ...

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Could you put all of the links to Shoko's Ostrava videos together here? She's talented no doubt, but she's likely going up against Angela and Yukiko in Sheffield.

The question is, which if any of Nakamura, Yuka Ishikawa, Murakami, Suzuki, Imai, and Kana (the ladies chuckm mentioned) do you believe will qualify or impact the qualifying?

I'd have to say I wouldn't agree with sending Nishino to another JGP. I like her, but her performance at her first event doesn't merit a second assignment. Besides, she has a full year of experience in the JGP - why not give another girl a chance?

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I'm ambivalent as to what to do with Nishino and I have no idea what the JSF will do. She is scheduled to start in Cape Town. If Nishino is skating well, she could podium, get a good seasons best score, and improve her ISU ranking.

http://www.dailymotion.com/romaji/video/x6txow_shoko-sp_sport
Ishikawa SP

I don't think the LP is online.

http://www.dailymotion.com/romaji/video/x6tlom_3f3t_sport

3f+3t attempt in warmup

oleada said:

http://www.dailymotion.com/romaji/video/x6txow_shoko-sp_sport
Ishikawa SP

I don't think the LP is online.

http://www.dailymotion.com/romaji/video/x6tlom_3f3t_sport

3f+3t attempt in warmup

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Shoko had a very good 3F+2T in the SP. In the LP, her PCS went up compared to her competitors but she wasn't as clean with her jumps. She could have gotten about 14 more points on her jumps which would've put her up there with Yukiko with the highest score so far.

At the moment there are 14 ladies, including Shoko, who can reach 24 points or better. To qualify with a 2nd place finish in Sheffield (and thus 22 points), she'll need 6 of the 13 following things to happen in other 2nd assignments:

Cecylia to not win
Brittney to not win
Min-Jung to not place 2nd or better
Sarah to not place 2nd or better
Diane to not place 2nd or better
Rumi to not place 3rd or better
Becky to not place 3rd or better
Alexe to not place 3rd or better
Angela to not place 3rd or better
Melissa to not place 4th or better
Amanda to not place 4th or better
Kristine to not place 4th or better
Yukiko to not place 4th or better

The second assignments of Dobbs and Gilles to RSA were dependent on their placing 4th or better in their first assignment. They won gold and silver in Mexico City, so yes, I would say their assignments in RSA are for sure.

And maybe it wouldn't be a lose/lose proposition for NISHINO if she went to RSA, but it could very well be a lose/lose for the JSF. I don't think the JSF values Nishino so highly (especially considering her Courchevel performance) that they are going to put her ego before the JSF's best interests.

And having seen Nishino's Courchevel video, it appears that she has had a BIG growth spurt, which would explain her poor performance. Unfortunately, one doesn't get over a growth spurt in just 4-5 weeks.

chuckm said:

And having seen Nishino's Courchevel video, it appears that she has had a BIG growth spurt, which would explain her poor performance. Unfortunately, one doesn't get over a growth spurt in just 4-5 weeks.

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Okay.


With Alexe and Amanda, yes, I'm sure that they'll both get 2nd assignments. I was just wondering whether the USFS might move one or the other to Sheffield rather than to Cape Town. (And also fix the gender assignments for the Karl Schafer Memorial. )

I doubt they would move either Alexe or Angela to Sheffield. Angela Maxwell will be at Sheffield with the replacement for Marissa Secundy. The last JGP is always a very tough event, and it won't do any harm to USFS JGP hopes if the new shooter doesn't have a great skate. Angela should be in great shape to improve on her last effort, which was impressive in itself.

ChrisH said:

It is perhaps too late to move Rylie Mcculloch-Casarsa out of Madrid, so I'll assume that Diane will skate in Gomel and Cecylia in Sheffield.

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Opps, Sylvia pointed out in a different topic that Skate Canada has assigned Diane Szmiett to Cape Town and Cecylia Witkowski to Gomel. Cape Town is now a ridiculously stuffed draw, IMO.

Diane placed and scored better than Cecylia in their 1st assignments. Diane skated in the 1st JGP event, Courchevel, so Skate Canada had the time to place her in Madrid or in Gomel. Apparently, other criteria has taken priority over getting to the final. Becky Bereswill and Brittney Rizo have thus benefitted by having excellent draws. For Shoko Ishikawa, it has pluses and negatives. Rumi Suizu, Diane herself, and Sarah Hecken get the biggest negatives, but if any of them manage to place 1st or 2nd, they can at least eliminate more of their rivals.

Because Cape Town and Sheffield are so tough, the winners of each will likely medal in the final. The four toughest JGPs last year were won by Mirai (2x), Rachael, and Yuki, and they went 1-2-3 in the final.

Rachael and Mirai won gold and silver in the Final last season because they were the class of the field. They went on to win gold and silver at US Nationals, and gold and bronze at JW. I don't think they won medals in the JGP because their events were particularly tough. I think they medaled there because they were exceptional skaters, and their scores of 162.09 and 159.66 were more than 10 points ahead of 3rd place Nishino (who herself was very consistent last season, finishing 3rd in the JGPF and 5th at Worlds).

Mirai easily won both of her events, USA by 27 points and CRO by 11. Rachael easily won her event in Austria, beating teammate Kristine Musademba by 17.4 points. Jenni Vahamaa was a distant third with an unexceptional 125.43 points. Rachael, however, did NOT win her event in Germany. She had gone to Germany after a weekend team competition in Japan, and may have been suffering from severe jet lag, but she finished second to Sarah Hecken and barely beat Rumi Suizu. The competition at Nishino's first event was weak, and she won by nearly 20 points over her competitors. The last event in GBR was a tough one, though, and Nishino barely edged Svetlana Issakova (who went on to bomb at the JGPF and JW).

I think these 3 skaters were just that much better than the rest and even when they were not quite at their best, they were still more than good enough to make the JGPF. They would have made it to the final and medaled no matter what events they skated in.

Looks like Japan has decided to send Yoko Ishikawa to Capetown with Rumi Suizu, and Fujisawa will go to Sheffied with whoever has the best showing among the Madrid and Belarus competitors.

The standings after 5 events:
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 S S S 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
3 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
4 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 15 1 148.25 1 97.93 97.93 50.32 34
5 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 15 1 139.44 1 88.98 88.98 50.46 25
6 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA 15 15 1 127.25 1 76.89 76.89 50.36 36
7 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 13 2 136.59 1 93.44 93.44 43.15 34
8 Alexe GILLES USA 13 13 2 136.46 1 86.55 86.55 49.91 25

In the 5th event, Kristine and Becky were 3rd and 4th after the SP but managed to eek out the overall 1st and 2nd over Kanako Murakami. There is a trivial chance that Becky will be bumped out of the final. Ksenia Makarova, representing Russia rather than the USA, placed 4th.

Kanako, age 13, and Ksenia raise the list of ladies who can score 24 points up to 16 (although not all simultaneously).

Shokoko Ishikawa has been moved from the Sheffield event to Cape Town, replacing Yuki Nishino. Kanako will likely replace Yuka Ishikawa in Sheffield (unless she is also upstaged by another Japanese lady who is about to skate in Gomel.) Ksenia is scheduled for Sheffield.

The Cape Town event is now expected to have 6 skaters who had a 4th place or better in their 1st assignment, Amanda Dobbs, Alexe Gilles, Rumi Suizu, Diane Szmiett, Sarah Hecken, and Shokoko Ishikawa, and the dangerous skaters Joshi Helgelsson, Jana Smekhnova, Sonia LaFuente, Isabel Drescher, Miriam Ziegler, and Chaochih Liu.

ChrisH said:

The standings after 5 events:
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 S S S 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
3 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
4 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 15 1 148.25 1 97.93 97.93 50.32 34
5 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 15 1 139.44 1 88.98 88.98 50.46 25
6 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA 15 15 1 127.25 1 76.89 76.89 50.36 36
7 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 13 2 136.59 1 93.44 93.44 43.15 34
8 Alexe GILLES USA 13 13 2 136.46 1 86.55 86.55 49.91 25

In the 5th event, Kristine and Becky were 3rd and 4th after the SP but managed to eek out the overall 1st and 2nd over Kanako Murakami. There is a trivial chance that Becky will be bumped out of the final. Ksenia Makarova, representing Russia rather than the USA, placed 4th.

Kanako, age 13, and Ksenia raise the list of ladies who can score 24 points up to 16 (although not all simultaneously).

Shokoko Ishikawa has been moved from the Sheffield event to Cape Town, replacing Yuki Nishino. Kanako will likely replace Yuka Ishikawa in Sheffield (unless she is also upstaged by another Japanese lady who is about to skate in Gomel.) Ksenia is scheduled for Sheffield.

The Cape Town event is now expected to have 6 skaters who had a 4th place or better in their 1st assignment, Amanda Dobbs, Alexe Gilles, Rumi Suizu, Diane Szmiett, Sarah Hecken, and Shokoko Ishikawa, and the dangerous skaters Joshi Helgelsson, Jana Smekhnova, Sonia LaFuente, Isabel Drescher, Miriam Ziegler, and Chaochih Liu.

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There's almost NO chance that Becky Bereswill will be bumped out of the final.

1. After the FS, it's entirely possible that Melissa Bulanhagui will be out with her 15 points. She needs a bare minimum of a 5th place finish to make it, and she'd have to win the FS. Rizo with her 9 points is also very much on the bubble. She needs gold or silver to have any shot.

If Gozeva medals, she's a throwout because she only had 3 points going in. If the two Japanese girls finish in the medals, then only one of them might get a shot at the last event, and even there, she'd have to beat Murakami's 127+ points to get it. Ruan is unlikely to get a second event at this point.

So if the US ladies bomb out in BLR, two of the three medalists won't figure in the Finals. That makes it possible for ladies with 22-24 points to make the Final. That's why Rizo or Bulanhagui could still make it with 22 points, depending on the outcome of the last two events.

2. There are lots of medalwinners in the next two events:

RSA: 15, 13, 13, 11, all with total points over 120, and a 9-pointer with total points 133+. Only 3 of these can medal, so two of the previous medals will fall short.

GBR: 15 and 13 with 148+ and 136+, plus a 9-pointer with 122+ points. Add to this one more high-scoring Japanese lady, and two more point-holders drop off the podium.

So Becky Bereswill's 26 points look very much alive from where I'm sitting.

I'm reposting the link to the current JGP Ladies' standings: http://www.isufs.org/events/jgp2008/jgpsladies.htm
Can't wait to see how the Junior Ladies' FS results turn out tomorrow!

ETA: I had assumed that the Ishikawas from Japan were sisters or twins, but they're not related according to their birthdates as published in their ISU bios:
Yuka Ishikawa, 6th in FRA (born April 26, 1990)
Shoko Ishikawa, 4th in CZE (born May 12, 1990)