Two More GPs to Go, then Who Will Go to Finals? | Golden Skate

Two More GPs to Go, then Who Will Go to Finals?

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
I did a bit of homework and this is what I came up with. Feel free to correct any errors and give me your magic 8 for each Division.

LADIES
On their way to the Finals: Musademba, Bereswill, Berton

Holding their breath: Bulanhagui (17), Gozeba (16), Rizo (16)

High Scores Going into Capetown:Dobbs (15) Giles (13)., Suizu (13), Szmiett (11), Hecken (11), Ishikwawa (9)

High Scores Going into Leeds: Fujisawa (15), Maxwell (13), Murakami (11), Kwak (11), Makarova (9), Hoffmann (7)


MEN
On their way to the Finals: Brezina, Mahbanoozadeh, Ten, Chen, Oi

High Scores Going Into Capetown: Dornbush (15), Bariev (13), Baldie (13), Mikhailov (9), Gonzalez (9)

High Score going into Leeds: Johnson (15), Gachinski (13), Amodio (11), Messing (9)


PAIRS
On their way to the Finals: I&M; K&B; O&E; Z&W

Note: No Pairs in Capetown but many in Leeds

SKATE DANCE
On their way to the Finals: S&S; R&G; R&H; M&N; F&R

Holding their breath: C&L; H&G

High Scores going into Capetown;: H&H (15); G&D (15); A&K (13); M&K (7)

High Scores going into Leeds:: A&D (15); :p&K; 13); R&SL (11); A&V (11)

Now Your Job: Who makes the Finals in Each Division??
 

oleada

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Ladies: Bulanhagui, Gozeva and Rizo are not going to make it. They have 17, 16, and 16 points respectively, and the cuttoff in previous years has been at least 22. Berton is not likely to make it either - my guess is that she'll possibly be one of the alternates.

My picks: Musademba (in), Bereswill (in) , Dobbs, Gilles, Fujisawa, Maxwell and two of Imai, Muramoto, Murakami and Ishikawa.

Men: Curran Oi is not in. The cuttoff for the men last year was 22 points and he's only got 20. Cheng might not make it either, because due to the tiebreak system in place, two bronzes are not as good as as second and fourth place.

My pics: Brezina (in), Mahbanoozadeh (in), Ten (in), Dornbush, Johnson, Bariev, Gachinski and Murakami.

Pairs: I&M, K&B, O&E, Z&W are all in. Likely to make it are Sheremetieva and Kuznetsov, Martiusheva & Rogonov, and Imaikina & Novoselov - my guess is that they'll at least be top 5 in Sheffield. The last spot is up for grabs: the contenders are Takashi/Tran (9), Velenosi/Fernandez (7) and Casteli/Shnapir (9). It'll probably come down to whoever team finishes first between them. I'm really not sure who it'll be, but I'll be rooting for Takashi/Tran.

Dance: Mysliveckova and Novak and Findlay and Richaud are not in the final and are unlikely to make it. There's no way Cannuscio/Lorello and Bailey and Herring are going to the final with so many silver and bronze medal winning teams still to skate their second event. Shibutanis, Riazanova/Guerreiro and Ralph/Hill are the only ones in for sure.

My picks: Shibutani/Shibutani, Riazanova/Guerreiro, Ralph/Hill, Hubbell/Hubbell, Gilles/Donohue, Agafonova/Dun, Chock/Zuerlein and Antipova/Kudashev. I'm thinking there'll be a big tie-break between the three Russian teams: Antipova/Kudashev, Zenkova/Sinitsin and Pushkash/Kiselev and the Canadian team Routhier/Saucke-Lacelle.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I
LADIES
On their way to the Finals: Musademba, Bereswill, Berton

Holding their breath: Bulanhagui (17), Gozeba (16), Rizo (16)

High Scores Going into Capetown:Dobbs (15) Giles (13)., Suizu (13), Szmiett (11), Hecken (11), Ishikwawa (9)

High Scores Going into Leeds: Fujisawa (15), Maxwell (13), Murakami (11), Kwak (11), Makarova (9), Hoffmann (7)

BERTON has only 20 points and is almost certain to NOT make the JGPF. In fact, the lowest JGPF points was 22 from 2004-2007, and 24 in 2002 and 2003. Berton might make the alternate list, but that's about it.

BULANHAGUI, GOZEBA and RIZO are all out of contention for the JGPF with 17, 16 and 16 points. They will not even be on the alternate list.

Scoring points are just as important as JGP points. For Capetown:

139.44, 15 points, DOBBS
136.46, 13 points, GILLES
133.54, 9 points, ISHIKAWA
126.58, 11 points, SZMIETT
121.97, 11 points, SUIZO
118.65, 11 points, HECKEN

For Sheffield:
148.25, 15 points, FUJISAWA
136.59, 13 points, MAXWELL
126.87, 11 points, MURAKAMI
123.52, 7 points, HOFFMANN
122.89, 9 points, MAKAROVA
117.42, 11 points, KWAK


MEN
On their way to the Finals: Brezina, Mahbanoozadeh, Ten, Chen, Oi

High Scores Going Into Capetown: Dornbush (15), Bariev (13), Baldie (13), Mikhailov (9), Gonzalez (9)

High Score going into Leeds: Johnson (15), Gachinski (13), Amodio (11), Messing (9)

BREZINA and MAHBANOOZADEH are a lock for the JGPF, and TEN is probably in, but CHENG (22 points and two bronze medals) is a maybe and OI (20 points) highly unlikely.

Capetown points and scores:
187.47, 13, BARIEV
186.70, 15, DORNBUSH
162.16, 13, BALDE
159.28, 9, MIKHAILOV
158.00, 9, GONZALES

Sheffield points and scores:
187.58, 15, JOHNSON
171.69, 11, AMODIO
160.84, 13, GACHINSKI
160.36, 9, MESSING



PAIRS
On their way to the Finals: I&M; K&B; O&E; Z&W

Note: No Pairs in Capetown but many in Leeds

IN:
30 ILIUSHECHKINA / MAISURADZE RUS
24 KRASILNIKOVA / BEZMATERNIKH RUS
24 OZEROVA / ENBERT RUS

Probably in:
18 ZHANG / WANG CHN

Will likely be in after Sheffield (sweeping the medals again):
131.94, 13, SHEREMETIEVA / KUZNETSOV
131.78, 11, MARTIUSHEVA / ROGONOV
127.01, 13, IMAIKINA / NOVOSELOV

That leaves one more spot to be filled.

Contenders for the last spot:
120.51, 9, CASTELLI / SHNAPIR USA
120.37, 7, VELENOSI / FERNANDEZ CAN
120.01, 9, TAKAHASHI / TRAN JPN


SKATE DANCE
On their way to the Finals: S&S; R&G; R&H; M&N; F&R

Holding their breath: C&L; H&G

High Scores going into Capetown;: H&H (15); G&D (15); A&K (13); M&K (7)

High Scores going into Leeds:: A&D (15); :p&K; 13); R&SL (11); A&V (11)

Now Your Job: Who makes the Finals in Each Division??

SHIBUTANIS and RIAZANOVA/GUERREIRO are in with 28 points each. RALPH/HILL are most likely in.

but MYSLIVECKOVA / NOVAK and FINDLAY/RICHAUD with 20 points each are not likely to make the final unless there are some very huge upsets in the last two events. CANNUSCIO / LORELLO and HARVEY / GAGNON with 16 points each have zero chance of making the final and probably won't even figure into alternate slots.

Capetown:
167.57, 15, HUBBELL / HUBBELL USA
159.30, 15, GILLES / DONOHUE USA
149.97, 13, ANTIPOVA / KUDASHEV RUS
143.73, 7, MONKO / KHALIAVIN RUS

I see very little chance of the two US teams not making the final as they will both likely medal, with one of the Russian teams winning the third medal.

Sheffield:
156.52, 15, CHOCK / ZUERLEIN USA
149.83, 11, ROUTHIER / SAUCKE-LACELLE CAN
145.46, 15, AGAFONOVA / DUN UKR
143.43, 13, PUSHKASH / KISELEV RUS
143.20, 11, ZENKOVA / SINITSIN RUS
142.01, 11, ALESSANDRINI / VATURI ITA

I think the US team will medal and make the final, as will the Ukrainian team, but it's hard to predict who the third medalist will be, and if they will get enough points to make the final.
 

ChrisH

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 31, 2007
BERTON has only 20 points and is almost certain to NOT make the JGPF. In fact, the lowest JGPF points was 22 from 2004-2007, and 24 in 2002 and 2003. Berton might make the alternate list, but that's about it.
It was 24 in the 2005-2006 season. Regardless, you're probably right. However, the odd result in Gomel plus the highly unusual grouping of high placed ladies and many other quality ladies in Cape Town unsettles things. 24, 22, or 20 points could be the dividing line. Once all of the entries for Sheffield are set, we can run through the possibilities to see how unlikely it'll be for Berton to make the final.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
The updated Sheffield roster was posted yesterday. Top Ladies contenders:

148.25, 15, Fujisawa
136.59, 13, Maxwell
126.87, 11, Murakami (not Imai, who was not on the sub list)
123.52, 7, Hoffman (GER)
122.89, 9, Makarova (RUS)
117.42, 11, Kwak (KOR)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Joe, you can also keep track of how the tie-breakers are coming out. In the first column under "tie-breakers" each skater has a number, 1,2,3, etc.

http://www.isufs.org/events/jgp2008/jgpsladies.htm

This tells which category they are in for the first tie breaker. For instnce, Becky Bereswill is in category 2 among all skaters who have 26 points. This means that there is only one way that another skater with the same number of points can beat her in the first tie breaker. (A skater might get 15+11 = 26 and beat Becky's 13+13 = 26.)

Stefania Berton has a 3 in the first tie breaker. This means she has 11 + 9 = 20 points and there are two ways to beat this, still with 20 points. (Becky will lose to any skater who has 15 + 5 = 20 or 13 + 7 = 20.)

If two skaters are still tied, the next tie-breaker is total points (the second tie-breaking column in the chart). It is almost inconceivable that they would ever have to go beyond this one to break a tie.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Food for thought, MM. Thanks.

So it seems only Dobbs and Fujisawa can tie Musademba and themselves.

Dornbush and Johnson can tie Brezina.
 
Last edited:

Kypma

Final Flight
Joined
May 12, 2007
Joe, you can also keep track of how the tie-breakers are coming out. In the first column under "tie-breakers" each skater has a number, 1,2,3, etc.

http://www.isufs.org/events/jgp2008/jgpsladies.htm

This tells which category they are in for the first tie breaker. For instnce, Becky Bereswill is in category 2 among all skaters who have 26 points. This means that there is only one way that another skater with the same number of points can beat her in the first tie breaker. (A skater might get 15+11 = 26 and beat Becky's 13+13 = 26.)

Stefania Berton has a 3 in the first tie breaker. This means she has 11 + 9 = 20 points and there are two ways to beat this, still with 20 points. (Becky will lose to any skater who has 15 + 5 = 20 or 13 + 7 = 20.)

If two skaters are still tied, the next tie-breaker is total points (the second tie-breaking column in the chart). It is almost inconceivable that they would ever have to go beyond this one to break a tie.

Sorry, Mathman, but I believe you've got it slightly confused (or maybe it's me). If you look at Melissa Bulanhagui, she has a 1, yet she got only 2 points in her second event, and that score can easily be beaten. The number in the 1st tie-breaker column refers to the highest placement -- in the event of a tie in points, the skater with the higher placement (eg. 1st and 3rd beats two 2nd's) is placed ahead...

-Kypma
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Sorry, Mathman, but I believe you've got it slightly confused (or maybe it's me). If you look at Melissa Bulanhagui, she has a 1, yet she got only 2 points in her second event, and that score can easily be beaten. The number in the 1st tie-breaker column refers to the highest placement -- in the event of a tie in points, the skater with the higher placement (eg. 1st and 3rd beats two 2nd's) is placed ahead.
I think we are saying the same thing. The number in the first tie-breaking column is the tie-breaking category for all skaters who tie with that many points.

Melissa Bulanhagui is in category "1" among all skaters with 17 points. She can be beaten outright by skaters with more points, but she cannot be beaten on the first tie-breaker by another skater with 17 points.

Brtitny Rizzo, on the other hand, has 16 points and is in category 4 in the group of all skaters who might finish with 16 points.

She is in category four because she got her 16 by 9+7. This will lose to 11+5 = 16 (first tie-breaker category 3), to 13+3 = 16 (category 2) and to 15+1=16 (category 1).

Of course any skater that finishes with more that 16 poitns will beat Rizzo outright without going to tie-breaker.

(I think this is right. :) )
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
As it stands right now before the Capetown and Sheffield events:

It still seems to me that Musademba is leading with 30. Those who have already attained 15 and could tie her are Fujisawa and Dobbs. Imai has WD.

Becky Bereswill has 26. The ladies pulling up to her are:Maxwell, Gilles and Suizu.

Musademba and Bereswill are definite Finalists. High Possiblities are: Fujisawa and Dobbs for another 15, and Maxwell and Gilles and Suizu battling it out for another 15. That makes 7 most likely to be Finalists.

One more to make it from the following: Murakami; Szmiett; Hecken; Kwak. (Muramotto has WD)

That Roundup thus far (if all goes well) should be more that 22 points to hit the Finals.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
There is one possible scenario where Ralph/Hill, the Canadian team, could get locked out of the JGPF.

Right now we have:

28, 15 and 13, 321.40 Shibutanis USA
28, 13 and 15, 317.22 Riazanova/Guerreiro RUS
26, 13 and 13, 297.15 Ralph/Hill CAN

If this result were to happen in Capetown, that could set up the one scenario:
Hubbells win, Antipova/Kudashev 2nd, Gilles/Donohue 3rd

Leaving:
30, 15 and 15, 336 (est) Hubbells, USA
28, 15 and 13, 321.40 Shibutanis USA
28, 13 and 15, 317.22 Riazanova/Guerreiro RUS
26, 15 and 11, 318 (est) Gilles/Donohue, USA
26, 13 and 13, 311 (est) Antipova/Kudashev, RUS
26, 13 and 13, 297.15 Ralph/Hill CAN

Then, in Sheffield, if Pushkash/Kiselev pulls off the win, with Agafonova/Dun 2nd and Chock/Zuerlein 3rd, you would have:

30, 15 and 15, 336 (est) Hubbells, USA
28, 15 and 13, 321.40 Shibutanis USA
28, 13 and 15, 317.22 Riazanova/Guerreiro RUS
28, 15 and 13, 302 (est) Agofonova/Dun UKR
28, 13 and 15, 301 (est) Pushkash/Kiselev RUS
26, 15 and 11, 311 (est) Chock/Zuerlein USA
26, 15 and 11, 318 (est) Gilles/Donohue, USA
26, 13 and 13, 311 (est) Antipova/Kudashev, RUS
26, 13 and 13, 297.15 Ralph/Hill CAN

I don't think it's likely that both A/D and P/K can beat Chock/Zuerlein, but it's ice dancing and anything is possible.

So Canadian fans better root for the US teams in the next two events.
 

Kypma

Final Flight
Joined
May 12, 2007
I think we are saying the same thing. The number in the first tie-breaking column is the tie-breaking category for all skaters who tie with that many points.

Melissa Bulanhagui is in category "1" among all skaters with 17 points. She can be beaten outright by skaters with more points, but she cannot be beaten on the first tie-breaker by another skater with 17 points.

Brtitny Rizzo, on the other hand, has 16 points and is in category 4 in the group of all skaters who might finish with 16 points.

She is in category four because she got her 16 by 9+7. This will lose to 11+5 = 16 (first tie-breaker category 3), to 13+3 = 16 (category 2) and to 15+1=16 (category 1).

Of course any skater that finishes with more that 16 poitns will beat Rizzo outright without going to tie-breaker.

(I think this is right. :) )

Mathman, you really do live up to your username :) I was under the impression that you were saying that the number showed how many ways there were for a skater to get into the Final, regardless of the total number of points. My bad!:bow::p

-Kypma
 
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