Two events and seventeen couples have competed so far, with a couple of surprises. So for an analysis of everyone's chances for the Grand Prix Finale:
Top four at Skate America:
1. Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Scheonfelder-Should win Trophee Eric Bombard and probably be the top qualifiers.
2. Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto-Need to win Cup of China to seal it, which they may very well do; they'll have to beat two Russian teams to do it, but one of them has only beaten them once and I'm very wary of Domnina & Shabalin's status right now, between his injuries and their probably being forced into a training situation they don't seem to be happy with, plus they've already had a competition to get some difficulties out. If they lose, I think it might be to K&N, but even then with two silvers they're probably safe, and I really don't see them finishing off the podium; the only other couple at Cup of China even in the top ten of the World are Capellini & Lanotte, who are very far away, and the Zaretskis, who have been having a few off-ice complications lately. At worst it should be bronze and they wait for the chips to fall. The big danger in that case is if Virtue & Moir don't compete at NHK, leaving gold there to a couple without a gold elsewhere; that many contenders with gold, and two Russian teams ahead of them, and silver and bronze is much less likely to cut it.
3. Sinead & John Kerr-Need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which isn't likely. Need silver to have a chance, which is far more possible; they'd have to beat Faiella & Scali, who did better than them last season, but they seem to be on the up and up this year. They might be remotely threatened by Fraser & Lukanin but that's very unlikely. Unfortunately, as I just noted, this might be a series with more couples winning gold than usual, so silver and bronze might not cut it. On the other hand, if Virtue & Moir do compete at NHK and win gold, that's 15 points out of contention, which might work in their favor.
4. Samuelson & Bates-Would have to win NHK to have a proper chance. That's definitely not happening if Virtue & Moir compete there and skate decently, and even otherwise it won't be easy; they'd have to beat both Faiella & Scali and Pechelat & Bourzat. But on the other hand, P&B haven't been very impressive so far this season, and F&S have gotten mixed reviews from those who have seen their programs. At the very least, they would have a good shot at silver, but if either F&S or P&B contend with a gold to their names, that's extremely unlikely to be enough. If they win silver behind Virtue & Moir, on the other hand...
Skate Canada top four:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-Need only to medal at Cup of Russia to seal it, and while their chances of beating either Russian team on their home ice aren't very high, their chances at bronze exactly are very high indeed. As in China, the only other teams there in the top ten are the Zaretskis and Capellini & Lanotte, who are only a little more likely to challenge D&W then B&A, maybe even less likely. At the very least, it would take a serious disaster for them to drop below fourth, though again, with all the possible gold-winning contenders, being vulnerable to being beaten by anyone with two silvers(and whoever wins silver in China is likely to have that) might be a problem. But so long as they skate clean, it's going to be bronze and a lock.
2. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier-Need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which isn't going to happen. Even for silver they'd need to beat Faiella & Scali, the Kerrs, and possibly Fraser & Lukanin and/or Carron & Jost. They have a better chance of warding off the last two and taking fourth, but that's very unlikely to be enough, even if Virtue & Moir do win NHK. There's a question if even bronze would be enough; they'd probably lose on the score tiebreaker.
3. Natalie Pechelat & Fabian Bourzat-Need to win NHK to seal it, probably need Virtue & Moir not to compete there to do that, and even if they don't, they've been behind F&S all last season and their performance at Skate Canada isn't very encouraging for changing that state of affairs. They may even be in danger of falling behind Samuelson & Bates as well, and if they lose to both those teams that's the end of it, even if Virtue & Moir aren't there. If they win silver, they want it to be behind Virtue & Moir, to increase the strength of that silver and bronze; with less than a 160 total from Skate Canada they may very well miss out on the score tiebreaker.
4. Kristina Gorskova & Vitali Butikov-Like Samuelson & Bates, need to win NHK to have a proper chance, and even if Virtue & Moir don't compete, they're extremely unlikely to do that, or even win silver.
Knocked out of the race but could mix things up for other skaters:
Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir-withdrew from Skate Canada, and as this analysis has made clear, whether or not they compete at NHK, and how well they do there, could be the deciding factor for multiple couples contending
Kristin Fraser & Igor Lukanin-withdrew from Skate America, might mix things up in Paris
Kim Navarro & Brent Bommentre-fifth at Skate Canada, have some chance, though not very high, of mixing things up at NHK
Contenders yet to compete:
Certain contenders:
Oksana Domnina & Maxim Shabalin
Jana Khoklova & Sergei Novitski
Fredica Faiella & Massimo Scali
Remote contenders:
Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte
Alexandra & Roman Zaretski
Top four at Skate America:
1. Isabelle Delobel & Olivier Scheonfelder-Should win Trophee Eric Bombard and probably be the top qualifiers.
2. Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto-Need to win Cup of China to seal it, which they may very well do; they'll have to beat two Russian teams to do it, but one of them has only beaten them once and I'm very wary of Domnina & Shabalin's status right now, between his injuries and their probably being forced into a training situation they don't seem to be happy with, plus they've already had a competition to get some difficulties out. If they lose, I think it might be to K&N, but even then with two silvers they're probably safe, and I really don't see them finishing off the podium; the only other couple at Cup of China even in the top ten of the World are Capellini & Lanotte, who are very far away, and the Zaretskis, who have been having a few off-ice complications lately. At worst it should be bronze and they wait for the chips to fall. The big danger in that case is if Virtue & Moir don't compete at NHK, leaving gold there to a couple without a gold elsewhere; that many contenders with gold, and two Russian teams ahead of them, and silver and bronze is much less likely to cut it.
3. Sinead & John Kerr-Need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which isn't likely. Need silver to have a chance, which is far more possible; they'd have to beat Faiella & Scali, who did better than them last season, but they seem to be on the up and up this year. They might be remotely threatened by Fraser & Lukanin but that's very unlikely. Unfortunately, as I just noted, this might be a series with more couples winning gold than usual, so silver and bronze might not cut it. On the other hand, if Virtue & Moir do compete at NHK and win gold, that's 15 points out of contention, which might work in their favor.
4. Samuelson & Bates-Would have to win NHK to have a proper chance. That's definitely not happening if Virtue & Moir compete there and skate decently, and even otherwise it won't be easy; they'd have to beat both Faiella & Scali and Pechelat & Bourzat. But on the other hand, P&B haven't been very impressive so far this season, and F&S have gotten mixed reviews from those who have seen their programs. At the very least, they would have a good shot at silver, but if either F&S or P&B contend with a gold to their names, that's extremely unlikely to be enough. If they win silver behind Virtue & Moir, on the other hand...
Skate Canada top four:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-Need only to medal at Cup of Russia to seal it, and while their chances of beating either Russian team on their home ice aren't very high, their chances at bronze exactly are very high indeed. As in China, the only other teams there in the top ten are the Zaretskis and Capellini & Lanotte, who are only a little more likely to challenge D&W then B&A, maybe even less likely. At the very least, it would take a serious disaster for them to drop below fourth, though again, with all the possible gold-winning contenders, being vulnerable to being beaten by anyone with two silvers(and whoever wins silver in China is likely to have that) might be a problem. But so long as they skate clean, it's going to be bronze and a lock.
2. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier-Need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which isn't going to happen. Even for silver they'd need to beat Faiella & Scali, the Kerrs, and possibly Fraser & Lukanin and/or Carron & Jost. They have a better chance of warding off the last two and taking fourth, but that's very unlikely to be enough, even if Virtue & Moir do win NHK. There's a question if even bronze would be enough; they'd probably lose on the score tiebreaker.
3. Natalie Pechelat & Fabian Bourzat-Need to win NHK to seal it, probably need Virtue & Moir not to compete there to do that, and even if they don't, they've been behind F&S all last season and their performance at Skate Canada isn't very encouraging for changing that state of affairs. They may even be in danger of falling behind Samuelson & Bates as well, and if they lose to both those teams that's the end of it, even if Virtue & Moir aren't there. If they win silver, they want it to be behind Virtue & Moir, to increase the strength of that silver and bronze; with less than a 160 total from Skate Canada they may very well miss out on the score tiebreaker.
4. Kristina Gorskova & Vitali Butikov-Like Samuelson & Bates, need to win NHK to have a proper chance, and even if Virtue & Moir don't compete, they're extremely unlikely to do that, or even win silver.
Knocked out of the race but could mix things up for other skaters:
Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir-withdrew from Skate Canada, and as this analysis has made clear, whether or not they compete at NHK, and how well they do there, could be the deciding factor for multiple couples contending
Kristin Fraser & Igor Lukanin-withdrew from Skate America, might mix things up in Paris
Kim Navarro & Brent Bommentre-fifth at Skate Canada, have some chance, though not very high, of mixing things up at NHK
Contenders yet to compete:
Certain contenders:
Oksana Domnina & Maxim Shabalin
Jana Khoklova & Sergei Novitski
Fredica Faiella & Massimo Scali
Remote contenders:
Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte
Alexandra & Roman Zaretski
