Now that the ISU website has finally updated the standings...two events, 15 pairs competed so far, and the chances of making the Grand Prix Finale. I believe this year pairs are not being assigned third events, so most of the series points will be in play, as in all the other events.
Skate America top four:
1. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy-Very likely to win Trophee Eric Bombard and seal it.
2. Keuna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker-Both events done, 24 points, which puts them on the bubble. Though with less good pairs in general the same pairs tend to medal at events, making it easier to qualify with just silver and bronze.
3. Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov-They would need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which before Skate America would seem to be not happening, and even now isn't the likeliest of events. But even with a bad long they beat Duhamel & Buntin, their closest competition at this event, so more likely than not they'll take silver and then they'll probably be okay. If Duhamel & Buntin beat them, or possibly Vise & Trent thought they'd need to land the quad and hope, they're probably out.
4. Megan Duhamel & Craig Buntin-For a proper chance they would have to win Trophee Eric Bombard, and right now, things aren't looking easy even for the silver, though that might leave them with a chance still, due, again, to the same pairs tending to collect all the medals up. But then again, they'd have to win it first.
Skate Canada top four(excluding McLaughlin & Brubaker):
1. Yuko Kawaguchi & Alexander Smirnov-To seal it they need only medal at Cup of Russia, where they're up against the Zhangs and may also have to worry about Volshozhar & Morozov, but on home ice they can probably prevail over the latter, and the field is otherwise stuffed with junior pairs and Castile & Okolski, who might not make it and won't be at their best if they do. Extreme disaster would probably only knock them down to fourth, where they'd *still* have a chance.
2. Jessica Dubé & Bryce Davison-Would need to win NHK to seal it, which they might very well do; they're up against Pang & Tong, and that could go either way. The only other pair at NHK even remotely at their level is Inoue & Baldwin, so a clean skate will get them silver, which is very likely to be enough. Even a particularly bad skate would only lower them to bronze, which is still a fair shot; it would take a total meltdown to take them off the podium. Though thus if they were fourth, it's a safe bet their scores would end what chance they might have left.
4. Mylene Brodeur & John Mattatall-Would need to win Cup of China to have a chance, which isn't happening with both the big Chinese pairs there. Even silver's extremely unlikely. Ironically, they're not without a chance at bronze; their score at Skate Canada's only a little below what V&M scored on the Grand Prix last year, but that won't help.
Knocked out of the race but may mix things up for the other skaters:
Tiffany Vise & Derek Trent-Fifth at Skate Canada, may mix things up in Paris
Rena Inoue & John Baldwin-Fifth at Skate America, small chance at mixing things up in NHK(bigger chance of winning the bronze and this mixing nothing up whatsoever)
Brooke Castile & Benjamin Okolski-withdrew from Cup of China, may mix things up in Russia(but probably not)
Contenders yet to compete:
Dan & Hao Zhang
Qing Pang & Jian Tong
Tatiana Volosozhar & Stanislav Morozov
Skate America top four:
1. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy-Very likely to win Trophee Eric Bombard and seal it.
2. Keuna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker-Both events done, 24 points, which puts them on the bubble. Though with less good pairs in general the same pairs tend to medal at events, making it easier to qualify with just silver and bronze.
3. Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov-They would need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which before Skate America would seem to be not happening, and even now isn't the likeliest of events. But even with a bad long they beat Duhamel & Buntin, their closest competition at this event, so more likely than not they'll take silver and then they'll probably be okay. If Duhamel & Buntin beat them, or possibly Vise & Trent thought they'd need to land the quad and hope, they're probably out.
4. Megan Duhamel & Craig Buntin-For a proper chance they would have to win Trophee Eric Bombard, and right now, things aren't looking easy even for the silver, though that might leave them with a chance still, due, again, to the same pairs tending to collect all the medals up. But then again, they'd have to win it first.
Skate Canada top four(excluding McLaughlin & Brubaker):
1. Yuko Kawaguchi & Alexander Smirnov-To seal it they need only medal at Cup of Russia, where they're up against the Zhangs and may also have to worry about Volshozhar & Morozov, but on home ice they can probably prevail over the latter, and the field is otherwise stuffed with junior pairs and Castile & Okolski, who might not make it and won't be at their best if they do. Extreme disaster would probably only knock them down to fourth, where they'd *still* have a chance.
2. Jessica Dubé & Bryce Davison-Would need to win NHK to seal it, which they might very well do; they're up against Pang & Tong, and that could go either way. The only other pair at NHK even remotely at their level is Inoue & Baldwin, so a clean skate will get them silver, which is very likely to be enough. Even a particularly bad skate would only lower them to bronze, which is still a fair shot; it would take a total meltdown to take them off the podium. Though thus if they were fourth, it's a safe bet their scores would end what chance they might have left.
4. Mylene Brodeur & John Mattatall-Would need to win Cup of China to have a chance, which isn't happening with both the big Chinese pairs there. Even silver's extremely unlikely. Ironically, they're not without a chance at bronze; their score at Skate Canada's only a little below what V&M scored on the Grand Prix last year, but that won't help.
Knocked out of the race but may mix things up for the other skaters:
Tiffany Vise & Derek Trent-Fifth at Skate Canada, may mix things up in Paris
Rena Inoue & John Baldwin-Fifth at Skate America, small chance at mixing things up in NHK(bigger chance of winning the bronze and this mixing nothing up whatsoever)
Brooke Castile & Benjamin Okolski-withdrew from Cup of China, may mix things up in Russia(but probably not)
Contenders yet to compete:
Dan & Hao Zhang
Qing Pang & Jian Tong
Tatiana Volosozhar & Stanislav Morozov
I kind of hate the tie break... It's pretty hard to compare scores across separate competitions to determine who is more deserving than who for GPF spots. But I can't really think of a better way to do it.
