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Thread: The Last Two Spots

  1. #1
    Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan MissIzzy's Avatar
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    The Last Two Spots

    While looking over the standings for all four disciplines, I noticed that with the exception of the ladies, there are two spots open in each. I have decided to make an analysis of at least Men, Pairs, and Ice Dance, though Ladies might give me too much of a headache. First, the Men:

    Locked:

    1. Patrick Chan
    2. Takahiko Kozuka
    3. Brian Joubert
    4. Jeremy Abbott

    Right now Tomas Verner is fifth in the standings, Alban Preaubert sixth. There are four men competing next week capable of passing them, though it is impossible for all four to do so: Johnny Weir, Stephen Carriere, Yannick Ponsero, & Kevin Reynolds.
    In order to get into the top six, Ponsero & Reynolds must win; if either does so, he's in(if either comes in second, he passes Preaubert, but in all probability one of the other three will go ahead of him).
    If either Johnny or Carriere make the top two, they pass Tomas. If, however, either wins bronze with a score of 211 or lower, or finishes off the podium Tomas will stay ahead, and will make the Finale, provided neither Ponsero nor Reynolds wins.
    The rogue element here, of course, is Nobunari Oda, who cannot qualify for the Finale himself, but if very capable of preventing someone else from doing so.

    Prediction:

    Johnny & Oda are the top two, in some order. Carriere wins bronze with a high enough score to pass Tomas. Final line-up:

    1. Patrick Chan
    2. Takahito Kozuka
    3. Johnny Weir
    4. Brian Joubert
    5. Jeremy Abbott
    6. Stephen Carriere

  2. #2
    Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan MissIzzy's Avatar
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    Pairs

    Locked:

    1. Aliona Savchenko-Robin Szolkowy
    2. Dan Zhang-Hao Zhang
    3. Yuko Kawaguchi-Alexander Smirnov
    4. Tatiana Volosozhar-Stanislav Morozov

    Maria Mukhortova & Maxim Trankov are fifth in the standings, Keuna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker sixth. There are only two teams capable of passing them both at this point: Jessica Dubé & Bryce Davison, and Qing Pang & Jian Tong.
    Dubé & Davison need only finish in the top two to pass them and get in. Since they are very likely in the weak NHK field to do this, Pang & Tong probably must pass both pairs. For this they must either win gold, or win silver with a score of 166.68 or higher.

    Prediction:

    Dubé & Davison and Pang & Tong are the top two at NHK, in some order. Pang & Tong score high enough, however, to make which places over the other irrelevant. Final lineup:

    1. Aliona Savchenko-Robin Szolkowy
    2. Dan Zhang-Hao Zhang
    3. Yuko Kawaguchi-Alexander Smirnov
    4/5. Jessica Dubé & Bryce Davison
    4/5/6. Qing Pang & Jian Tong
    5/6. Tatiana Volosozhar-Stanislav Morozov

  3. #3
    Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan MissIzzy's Avatar
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    Ice Dance

    Locked:

    1. Isabelle Delobel-Olivier Scheonfelder
    2. Oksana Domnina-Maxim Shabalin
    3. Jana Khoklova-Sergei Novitski
    4. Meryl Davis-Charlie White

    Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto are fifth in the standings, Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier sixth. There are two teams capable of passing the former: Fredica Failla & Massimo Scali, and Nathalie Pechelat & Fabian Bourzat. Capable of passing the latter are Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates, and Kristina Gorskova & Vitali Butikov.
    In order to pass Tanith & Ben, Pechelat & Bourzat must win gold, and Failla & Scali either win gold or win silver with a score of over 193. Because they cannot pass Tanith & Ben, Samuelson & Bates and Gorshkova & Butikov, in order to qualify, must win gold with Failla & Scali not winning silver; if they win silver they will still go ahead.

    Prediction:

    Faiella & Scali win gold, taking a spot, and making it impossible for Pechelat & Bourzat to pass Tanith & Ben. Final line-up:

    1. Isabelle Delobel-Olivier Scheonfelder
    2. Oksana Domnina-Maxim Shabalin
    3. Fredrica Faiella-Massimo Scali
    4. Jana Khoklova-Sergei Novitski
    5. Meryl Davis-Charlie White
    6. Tanith Belbin-Benjamin Agosto

  4. #4
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    ^^^

    ^^^

    ^^^
    Super analytic work on deciding the GPFs.

    We'll look forward to NHK to get the Finals. So sorry to read the McL/Bru will not make the Finals. Maybe First Alternate?

    I think for the Ladies, there are already: YuNa and Joannie. Kostner because she has a gold.

    Most likely: Mao and Nakano. Maybe not both possibly neither.

    Two more: Ando and Suguri? Maybe Flatt?

    Challenging: Lepisto. Very iffy challenge: Wagner and Nagasu.

    I agree, one can get a headache anyalizing the Ladies. Not cut and dry.

  5. #5
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    Ladies Standings:

    Yu-Na KIM KOR 30 15 15 385.20
    Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 30 15 15 369.62
    Carolina KOSTNER ITA 24 9 15 323.48
    Miki ANDO JPN 24 11 13 339.30
    Fumie SUGURI JPN 24 13 11 325.90
    Rachael FLATT USA 22 9 11 321.79

    Contenders at NHK
    Mao ASADA JPN 13 167.59
    Yukari NAKANO JPN 13 172.53
    Laura LEPISTÖ FIN 11 159.42
    Ashley WAGNER USA 11 155.59
    Mirai NAGASU 7 USA 142.90

    Asada and Nakano are in with a top two finish, which is likely. Lepistö is in with a gold, or a silver if she scores higher than 179.88. Wagner needs a win. Nagasu is in only with a win and only if Asada and Nakano are out of the top 3. However, Lepistö's PB is only 165.65 and it would take a lot of bombing on their parts for Asada & Nakano to finish behind Wagner, Nagasu and Lepisto. So, more than likely the final will be: Kim, Rochette, Asada, Nakano, Kostner & Ando, with Suguri, Flatt & one of Wagner and Lepisto as alternates.

  6. #6
    Skating Freak Barbie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    We'll look forward to NHK to get the Finals. So sorry to read the McL/Bru will not make the Finals. Maybe First Alternate?
    They would have to be second alternate, since they are already behind M/T in tiebreaks.

  7. #7
    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    I am sad that Fumie is likely to miss the final. But I am glad that Caro is in.

    I feel it all possible that Ponsero beats Carierre for Bronze and Tomas is in.

  8. #8
    Tripping on the Podium
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    can caroline zhang make it to the grand prix final
    ??

  9. #9
    Medalist
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    Quote Originally Posted by caaather View Post
    can caroline zhang make it to the grand prix final
    ??
    Unfortunately she can not she finished 11th...

    ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating 2008/2009
    Ladies
    FINAL RESULTS
    -unofficial-

    PLACE 1 - 6: QUALIFIED FOR ISU GRAND PRIX OF FIGURE SKATING FINAL

    1 Yu-Na KIM KOR
    2 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN
    3 Mao ASADA JPN
    4 Carolina KOSTNER ITA
    5 Yukari NAKANO JPN
    6 Miki ANDO JPN

    PLACE 7 - 9: SUBSTITUTE FOR THE ISU GRAND PRIX OF FIGURE SKATING FINAL

    7 Fumie SUGURI JPN 13 11 24 2 325.90 2 209.68 105.94 116.22 23
    8 Rachael FLATT USA 9 13 22 2 321.79 2 210.95 110.14 110.84 22
    9 Alissa CZISNY USA 11 9 20 3 308.95 2 205.79 108.26 103.16 23

    http://www.isufs.org/events/gp2008/gpsladies.htm

  10. #10
    L'art pour l'art Medusa's Avatar
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    Heh. One European and one North-American Lady. Well, that's what I call a "balanced" GPF.

  11. #11
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    And 4 European and 2 Chinese pair teams....

    Actually, this doesn't bother me - It's clear that the top ladies this year have been far and away the best.

  12. #12
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    If it ends up being Verner and Weir who make it through (I hope so!) the men's field will be nicely balanced, both geographically and in terms of style and programs.

  13. #13
    Dreaming and dancing Bennett's Avatar
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    Having seen his fab showing at SP, I am sorry that Nobu cannot make it no matter what. But I am proud that he pulled himself together under enormous pressures to comeback well at home.

  14. #14
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    what was the tiebreaker between the last 3 ladies?

  15. #15
    Moving up the testing structure Kypma's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by volk View Post
    what was the tiebreaker between the last 3 ladies?
    I believe it was the highest total score (addition of the two scores -- the final total from each competition).

    -Kypma
    Last edited by Kypma; 11-29-2008 at 01:18 PM. Reason: it's competition, not competion

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