Which two for World Team

dorispulaski said:

As to Rachael:
Cup of Russia:
No jump errors listed in the short, other than a problem with the landing of the 3F. (no UR or flutz)

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She fell out of the 3F, was lucky to avoid a complete fall, but she did get mostly -2 GOE's, and had to tack a 2T to the second jump (3Z).

Earlier at Skate America, she had some problems , a UR on the 3F in the SP and a slight flutz (the ! kind) on the lutzes in both programs:

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She also popped two triples later in the program.

As to how her base score 60.78/TES 60.86 compares:
Caroline's best outing was TEB
Caroline TEB base score 53.78/TES 55.66

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That entire difference would be made up, and more, if Caroline's 3F-3T hadn't been downgraded at TEB -- at SC she earned 9.5 for a fully ratified 3F-3T, and at TEB she only earned 2.24. And that wouldn't be surprising, because besides higher spin GOE's, she also attempted 7 triples to Rachael's 6 (she opted for two 2A's and no 3R).

At GPF last year, Caroline had the highest TES in the SP, and the third highest TES in the LP. And this year at TEB, she had the second highest TES ahead of Mao Asada. It's not TES that keeps Caroline down, but rather PCS. Last year she had the highest PCS among US ladies (besides Kimmie), but this year she's getting maybe the lowest -- not that her PCS is dropping, but rather everyone else is improving in that department...

Fereina, Rachael had mistakes certainly, but she had less mistakes than Caroline has had this year. And the whole underrotation thing is a big reason why we want Flatt on the team, she rotates her jumps. The only downgrades she gets are 3/3's and even Mao gets those. Plus, Caroline had more experience than Flatt did....As for Rachael only attempting 6 instead of 7 triples, from what I understand her plan is to eventually add a 3 flip/3loop to her programs.

Flatt is right now by far our strongest girl. She has the least amount of issues to work on....

bekalc said:

Flatt is right now by far our strongest girl. She has the least amount of issues to work on....

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Perhaps now that's the case. But I worry about how she will transition into the Olympic Season. She obviously has not a grown woman's body yet.

McWicked said:

I recorded it.

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Is there any way you could upload it to Dailymotion? I would be forever grateful.

The sad thing is that last year, Caroline was a different skater. She had UR and flutz problems and a mule kick, but not as severe as this year. And perhaps more importantly, the callers are even more strict this year.

Caroline grew, and she is still adjusting to that, too. I expect that Caroline will fix her problems, because she is a lovely skater and determined competitor. But I wouldn't bet the farm on them being fixed by Nationals.

flying camel said:

We have seen all their programs. Which two are you guys liking for our World Team. Will it be Flatt, Zhang, Mirai, Czisny, Hacker, Kimmie, Bebe or Wagner. Those are the girls that I think have the best chance of making it to Worlds.

Let face it this is serious business. We can't afford a splat fest.

I am going with Zhang/Flatt or Wagner. I think it will be two out of those three. Flatt has proven to be consistent with her jumps. Wagner & Zhang have some jump issues but landed most of their jumps this season. I think Mirai is just lost this season. She had too much stuff to deal with. As much as I love Czisny her track record for landing jumps under pressure is to risky. Lets discuss

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At GPS, Flatt and Wagner were best.

I think that Mirai still has a chance if she recovers from the lost practice time for her injury. The same goes for Caroline.

Alissa looked very nice at both events. But she had never been a consistent jumper and I am not sure if she has really changed.

I am afraid the other ladies seem to have placed a bit too low so far.

gold12345 said:

Is there any way you could upload it to Dailymotion? I would be forever grateful.

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Sure, but i must tell you the 1st seconds are missing coz WebTV was havin some problems. I just use it 2 record it, I also have IceNetwork.

dorispulaski said:

I wasn't until I saw the really strange jump technique she used at TEB. If you haven't seen it, it is way different (and worse) than last year. I'm just hoping she can fix whatever has gone so terribly wrong by nationals.

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Although Caroline's jumps looked sort of strange, I had an impression that they did not seem to be affecting the GOEs as much as fans and commentators were worried. I could be wrong though.

Bennett said:

Although Caroline's jumps looked sort of strange, I had an impression that they did not seem to be affecting the GOEs as much as fans and commentators were worried. I could be wrong though.

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You are right. But that's when she lands them. If you look at all the falls she's had in the past 2.5 seasons, 60% were on a flip and 40% on a lutz. I think with her odd techniques, she's more prone to mistakes when she's nervous or tired or under pressure.

feraina said:

I don't know why people are so pessimistic about Caroline ...

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I'm not pessimistic about Caroline. Sorry if it sounded that way. It's just that the selection criteria aren't great for her as she was placed 4th at Nationals last season. So far this season, Alissa has skated above my early expectations, Ashley met them, and the other US ladies are below them. None of the ladies should be favored for Nationals IMO. I just rather Caroline not put it in the judges hands and instead blows away the rest of the competition.

Mirai may have been better off not competing at the NHK Trophy.

I haven't watched Kimmie's skate at CoR yet. (I'm getting tired of calling the icenetwork over and over again to temporarily remove their misprogrammed blackout restrictions.) Caroline, Kimmie, and Mirai are still the three highest ranked US ladies. Unfortunately, none of the ladies made the GPF and so there's plenty of time before Nationals to watch all of the ladies programs. Given how the ladies skated in the GP, I wouldn't rule out the age eligible ladies who skated in the JGP ... especially if they do well in the JGPF.

After mulling it over and looking at protocols and youtubing like one possessed, I've decided that I just want the best skater to win, whether it's Czisny or Flatt or Lisa Lutz from Nowhere, North Dakota. The number of Olympic berths is less important than who actually goes to Vancouver as the 2010 US National champion. These girls all have time to improve.

It's all about the US Nationals, and the confirmation at the 4CCs. Hopefully they will match. Do you think the top 2 finishers at US Nats will compete at 4CC?

Well beyond which two make the team, we also seem to be discussing the chances for 3 at next year's olympics. If the magic number is 13 that means that we essentially need our two ladies to finish in the top 7 or 8.

My feeling is that at a minimum, the top five will be filled with Mao, Kim, Kostner, Ando, Rochette. The US ladies will most likely not finish ahead of those so they would need to occupy the 6th and 7th spots to hit 13. This means they will both need to beat Meier, the Finish team and Suguri.

While it is exciting that the US Ladies nationals field is pretty open this year -(there are probably 9 who could realistically challenge for the Nationals Podium) - they are really not at the point of being in the "A Tier" for world placements this year.

I hope that they do it, but when i crunch the numbers it seems like a bit of a long shot. Part of thinks the USFSA should try to pick the ladies with the best chance to grab the 3rd spot for the 2010 team, but to be honest, i don't know if any lady really has a better chance than any of the others to make it happen.

thoughts...??

Reading all of those pages of discussion and trying to come up with a good answer made me nervous/nauseus I wish I had a great answer to the question as to who should go. I think there will be alot of breath holding, nail biting & praying while the competition goes on...and that will just be from me Im just going to have to keep my comments to myself(or very very quiet) since we will be at Worlds in LA, and I am very vocal when I watch skating:yes: although I think I was good...for the most part at Nationals in St Louis

Back on track. Although the season seemed very dismal, our ladies team has amazing potential. There are about 10 girls who could very well go to Worlds and do great...depending on the day. But to lock in the magic 13 you need to view a crystal ball to see who will hold up enough under the pressure to lay it down on the ice. As opposed to actually laying down on the ice themselves. Id hate to be a member of the judges or the USFSA making the decision on who gets to go.

Who would I love to see at Worlds? Mirai & Caroline or Alissa & Bebe all skating clean gorgeous programs. Unfortunately Mirai has been plagued with injury, Caroline has been wonky on her jumps, Alissa is inconsistant at best and Bebe(although I love her) is a mess(as was stated earlier) so I dont think any of my four favorites will hold those 2 spots.

Kimmie is still having issues, so I think she is a definate no go. Katrina although a very lovely skater just doesnt have the content to get up high enough for the 13.

Which leaves Rachel & Ashley. Rachel is the most consistant so I believe she will go. As for Ashley she has improved although she gets dinged on her jumps and was poor at her 1st Worlds outting. Do you send her? or do you send someone like Caroline who when she's on she's right in the mix? Its pretty much a roll of the dice.

My best guess is that it will be Rachel & Ashley. Although I could see them sending Rachel & Caroline on the off chance that she is back on track.

Ugh....Who knows....well thats my two cents, and Im off to get some Tums for my stomach

Whoever gets to go to Worlds this year I wish them the best of luck and hope that the huge weight of trying to get 13 or less doesnt cause a meltdown

If the USFS decides to keep its regulations, the top 2 at US Nats will go to LA.

One should question their personal Provisos when choosing placements of skaters.

Will so and so always under rotate jumps?
Will so and so always make a wrong edge takeoff?
Will so and so not always skate clean?

I believe new competitions allow for past errors to be rectified.

While I understand BeBe's history of '2 clean programs'. there is that hope she may do 2 clean programs at this coming Nats.

Joesitz said:

While I understand BeBe's history of '2 clean programs'. there is that hope she may do 2 clean programs at this coming Nats.

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Id be over the moon with excitement for that!! :yes:

In all honesty I want ALL the girls to put 2 clean programs out there for the judges/audience :yes:

Pikachuusb said:

In all honesty I want ALL the girls to put 2 clean programs out there for the judges/audience :yes:

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Sure...but we all know how likely that is to happen.