2009 BMO Canadian Figure Skating Championships

[fumie_fumie]

website" http://skatecanada.ca/en/events_resu...nts/cdns09.cfm

my predictions

Men, Canadian men
0. Fedor Andreev (2009 world champion)
1. Patrick Chan
2. Kevin Reynolds
3. Shawn Sawyer

Ladies (most predictable discipline):

1. Joannie Rochette
2. Cynthia Phaneuf
3. Diane Szmiett
4. Mira Leung
5. Myriane Samson

Pairs:

1. Duhamel Buntin
2. Dube Davison
3. Langlois Hay (will the be at nationals?)
4. Brodeur Matattal
5. Kirkland Rardford (?)

Dance

1.Virtue Moir
2. Crone Poirier
3. Weaver Poje
4. Chong Gfeller
5. Karam/O'keefe
6. Ralph/Hill

Anyone going to Saskatoon for Nationals?

[cloudkicker09]

Where is Fedor....All I care about is that Fedor is on that World team. That is the only reason I am looking forward to Canadian Nationals, and that is my only prayer for Canadian Nationals.

[siberia82]

fumie_fumie, we're called Fedor Fanatics, not Fedor people. Still, I appreciate you including him on your list, even if it's just for fun. But as crazy as I am about him, I'm fairly certain he won't medal at Worlds (as much as I would like this to be true).

EDIT: For those of you who didn't get to see it, CBC recently produced a fluff on the current state of Canadian men's figure skating: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HHAPWDm9hA

[fumie_fumie]

Guys,

I found an incredible blog on last year's nationals from an American lady. Enjoy. Her blog captures the festive spirit surrounding Canadian nationals well. I just can't wait for 2009 nationals.

http://discolights.blogspot.com/search/label/skating

[Winnipeg]

The list of senior competitors is posted but not the juniors.

Predictions:

MEN
Chan
Reynolds
Andreev
Sawyer
Chipeur

LADIES
Rochette
Phaneuf
Leung
Samson
Smiezt

PAIRS
D/Davison
D/Buntin
L/Hay???
K/Radford
TBD


Dance
V/M
C/Poirier
W/Poje

[siberia82]

This is the website for the 2009 Canadians: http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_...ns09/index.cfm

This is the starting order for the Men's SP: http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_...esults/sd1.pdf Of course, since Fedor didn't have any international assignments, he has been relegated to the 2nd group, which means that CBC television will chack his SP performance (and no, I don't have BOLD). I can watch the full competition on the CBC Sports website, but it just isn't the same.

[nadster]

This is the starting order for the Men's SP: http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_...esults/sd1.pdf Of course, since Fedor didn't have any international assignments, he has been relegated to the 2nd group, which means that CBC television will chack his SP performance (and no, I don't have BOLD). I can watch the full competition on the CBC Sports website, but it just isn't the same.

I will be more specific. Fedor did not have any senior GP assignments ( the only kind of internationals that give you a bye to nationals) . If Fedor only had Nebelhorn, he still would be skating in the same place as he is now.

Random thoughts:

Ladies:

Canadian ladies that have made JGPF have not had a history of skating well at nationals in the season they made the JGPF. Duhamel and Phaneuf skated so badly in their respective nationals when they made the JGPF that they did not even make the junior worlds teams in those years. Duhamel especially had a habit of struggling at nationals even with good international results.

Hopefully Smziett can break this trend but based on her JGPF performance, I have a feeling she won't. If she skates like she did early this season , I will have her ahead of Leung.

1. Rochette 2. Phaneuf 3. Leung 4. Can't tell after this

Junior Worlds ladies ( 2 spots total)

The only sure thing is Szmiett. The senior ladies that might be considered are Grenier and Kang. The junior ladies being considered would be Rylie M-C, Najarro and Charbonneaux.

Men:

1. Chan 2. Reynolds 3. Fedor 4.Sawyer 5. Chipeur

The fact that SC gave Sawyer the Skate Canada assignment at the last minute shows they they still don't have faith for him to finally land the jumps.

I expect Fedor could be ahead of Reynolds after the short mainly because Reynolds has triple axel problems. Fedor has upped the levels of his non-jump elements this year.

Junior Worlds men ( 2 spots ): Balde and whoever wins junior men ( I am predicting Morais here). Poirier ( competing in seniors ) is capable of outskating the other men competing in juniors at nationals but won't be considered because SC will want him to save his energy for dance at senior worlds. Obviously Reynolds will join Balde if Reynolds fails to medal at nationals.

Pairs:

1. Dube/Davison 2. Duhamel/Buntin 3. Langlois/Hay 4. Brodeur/Mattatall 5. Kirkland/Radford.

The only senior competition where there is real competition for the gold medal.

Junior worlds pairs ( 2 spots ) - As all our pairs were a complete mess on the JGP circuit and no one really even impressed at the challenge, I would not even try a guess here.

Dance:

I won't talk about the senior podium here as that is too obvious. Instead I will talk about the last 2 places of the national team ( 4th and 5th place)

Chong/Gfeller: Had the best summer scores of all the teams.

McCurdy/Coreno: It is obvious that this team is falling backwards internationally. This will hurt them at nationals.

Karam/O'Keefe: Karam had an injury at challenge so the fact they only finished 3rd at challenge does not mean much. Have beaten McCurdy/Coreno in FS in Thornhill even with costume issues twice giving them troubles with twizzles.

Asher/Hill : I think SC will want this team on the national team. I think they will finish 5th as they will have to come from behind after the CD.

I think 4th to 7th will go this way

1. Chong/Gfeller, Asher/Hill , Karam/O'Keefe , McCurdy/Coreno

Junior dance ( 3 spots ) Asher/Hill and Routhier/Sauck-Lacelle ( who I predict will win junior ) for sure. The other spot will be whoever finishes 2nd at junior dance at nationals.

[cloudkicker09]

:

This is the website for the 2009 Canadians: http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_...ns09/index.cfm

This is the starting order for the Men's SP: http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_...esults/sd1.pdf Of course, since Fedor didn't have any international assignments, he has been relegated to the 2nd group, which means that CBC television will chack his SP performance (and no, I don't have BOLD). I can watch the full competition on the CBC Sports website, but it just isn't the same.

Siberia, are you serious? that is just great, Now I am really nervous, for nationals. But should all of the good vibes that we have sent his way, prove strong enough then for sure we will see him in the final group for the long program.

Did this happen last year? Was he in the final group for the SP last year?

[Sylvia]

Guys,

I found an incredible blog on last year's nationals from an American lady. Enjoy. Her blog captures the festive spirit surrounding Canadian nationals well. I just can't wait for 2009 nationals.

http://discolights.blogspot.com/search/label/skating

FYI, Melanie Hoyt is one of the photographers for ice-dance.com -- here's the event page for 2008 Canadians that features her photos and reports:
http://www.ice-dance.com/events-resu...annationals08/

[siberia82]

I will be more specific. Fedor did not have any senior GP assignments ( the only kind of internationals that give you a bye to nationals). If Fedor only had Nebelhorn, he still would be skating in the same place as he is now.

You're right, I wasn't specific enough in my previous post. I was aware that only a GP assignment would've granted him a bye. However, if he hadn't lost his motivation during the summer, I have no doubt that Fedor would've placed aheard of Ten at Nebelhorn (and therefore would've received the 3rd SC spot).

The fact that SC gave Sawyer the Skate Canada assignment at the last minute shows they they still don't have faith for him to finally land the jumps.

It's true that SC had zero confidence in Shawn before the GP circuit started. However, it was reported in this Globe & Mail article
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/s...ortsOther/home that the federation awarded Shawn Jeff's vacant spot soon after he performed at the Vacouver Training Camp.

"He was originally given only Skate America as a Grand Prix this year, but within a half-hour after he performed at the national training camp in Vancouver in September, Skate Canada gave him a spot at the Ottawa event, too."

I have a feeling that it was Shawn's sublime "Amadeus" program which won those cold-hearted bureaucrats over.

Kevin had slightly higher placements than Shawn during the GP series (two 4th place finishes vs. two 5th place finishes), but the average of Shawn's scores is a teeny weeny bit higher than Kevin's ([199.98 + 206.56]/2 = 203.27 vs. [204.89 + 199.74]/2 = 202.315). I'm sure the bigwigs were pleased with Shawn's free skate win at SC. And don't forget that he competed at two back-to-back GP events at the VERY start of the season, which is a much more stressful situation than Kevin's (who had one at the beginning and one at the end). With these two skaters, I'd say they're pretty much equal from what we've seen so far; it's simply a question of Quantity vs. Quality.

Siberia, are you serious? that is just great, Now I am really nervous, for nationals. But should all of the good vibes that we have sent his way, prove strong enough then for sure we will see him in the final group for the long program.

Our good vibes brought Fedor back to the sport and victory at his two qualifying events. I have NO doubt that he will make the final flight for the LP!

Did this happen last year? Was he in the final group for the SP last year?

Fedor was part of the 2nd group and was therefore chacked during the live broadcast of the Men's SP, although the CBC did include him in the 2nd showing. However, unless there's going to be a surprise schedule change, there won't be a rerun of the Men's SP in 2009, so it's possible that his performance will be left on the cutting room floor.

I'll never forgive CTV for chacking Fedor's LP at both the 2001 and 2005 Canadians (which were apparently brilliant, but only those who were fortunate enough to watch the competition in person were able to see the whole thing). :banging:

[nadster]

You're right, I wasn't specific enough in my previous post. I was aware that only a GP assignment would've granted him a bye. However, if he hadn't lost his motivation during the summer, I have no doubt that Fedor would've placed aheard of Ten at Nebelhorn (and therefore would've received the 3rd SC spot).



It's true that SC had zero confidence in Shawn before the GP circuit started. However, it was reported in this Globe & Mail article
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/s...ortsOther/home that the federation awarded Shawn Jeff's vacant spot soon after he performed at the Vacouver Training Camp.

"He was originally given only Skate America as a Grand Prix this year, but within a half-hour after he performed at the national training camp in Vancouver in September, Skate Canada gave him a spot at the Ottawa event, too."

I have a feeling that it was Shawn's sublime "Amadeus" program which won those cold-hearted bureaucrats over.

Kevin had slightly higher placements than Shawn during the GP series (two 4th place finishes vs. two 5th place finishes), but the average of Shawn's scores is a teeny weeny bit higher than Kevin's ([199.98 + 206.56]/2 = 203.27 vs. [204.89 + 199.74]/2 = 202.315). I'm sure the bigwigs were pleased with Shawn's free skate win at SC. And don't forget that he competed at two back-to-back GP events at the VERY start of the season, which is a much more stressful situation than Kevin's (who had one at the beginning and one at the end). With these two skaters, I'd say they're pretty much equal from what we've seen so far; it's simply a question of Quantity vs. Quality.

siberia , some very good points.

However I must say that Fedor is not a very good early season skater ( based on several years observation not just the late start this year) and might have lost to Ten at Nebelhorn who was in great form at the time. Hence Fedor still might not have received that Skate Canada spot.

I am not saying that Ten would beat Fedor at nationals ( in fact my post said Fedor would finish 3rd and Ten would not finish in the top 5 ) but weird things happen to skaters who aren't the best early birds in early competitions.

About Shawn vs Kevin yes they are very equal but I would not say that Shawn had the tougher schedule of GP's this year. Shawn was lucky to compete in the first 2 GP's where many top skaters are yet to hit any form. Strange results are more likely to happen early due to the fact that some top skaters never hit stride early in the season ( Kostner a prime example of that). Also one of Shawn's GP's is Skate Canada, where he would get the home country boost. Shawn may have had his back to back, but he did not have to change continents back to back ( unlike Jeremy Ten for example who did Canada and China). I grant you Shawn's change involved 3 time zones but it still pales in comparison to Canada and China. I agree that if you are a top contender for the GP final, you would not want to get the first 2 events , especially if you are a slow starter. But otherwise, the first 2 events in the same continent is not that bad as it is easier to spring surprises then.

I do agree that Skate Canada was convinced as you said in the national training camp by Shawn's programs which have been the best ones he has ever had but I am sure they still are concerned to a degree about the lack of a reliable triple axel or quad jump.

[screech]

There are a couple tricky events to predict. Ladies and dance are pretty easy, though mens and pairs aren't, which is exciting! My predictions...

Men
1. Patrick Chan
2. Shawn Sawyer
3. Fedor Andreev
4. Kevin Reynolds
5. Vaughn Chipeur

Pairs
1. Duhamel/Buntin (great momentum this year!)
2. Dube/Davison
3. Langlois/Hay

Pairs is the only event that IMO has a contest for gold and that's between D/D and D/B. When's the last time that pairs was one of the most exciting and unpredictable events! Awesome!

[nadster]

There are a couple tricky events to predict. Ladies and dance are pretty easy, though mens and pairs aren't, which is exciting! My predictions...

The first 2 spots for ladies will be easy to predict. ( Rochette and Phaneuf) After that it is very difficult.

The contenders for bronze at nationals and more importantly that 4CC spot especially for those with low or no ISU ranking. It also will give a good idea who might be considered for Nebelhorn next season although summer competitions will also have a say.

Leung: She stands up and goes for her jumps but will she suffer from UR calls? Also dropping PCS is a problem. Historically at nationals she has never been called for underrotation. However the G&M's report about Mira's fallout with BC sectional head may change matters.

Szmiett: Great early season making the JGPF. But history ( ladies who make JGPF then immediately bomb at Canadian nationals ) is against her. And her JGPF skate does suggest that bomb could happen. Still can go back to JGP next season. Should be third if she holds up early season form.

Samson: Has not skated well all season. Could easily be out of top 5. But at her best could get the bronze medal. Tends to skate great short programs at nationals.

Kang: Skated well at challenge but has struggled otherwise. But competitive history suggests she too is likely to bomb at nationals as she implodes far more often than not. Last chance to go to junior worlds.

Grenier: Except for her JGP debut bomb , she actually has skated well this year. Can go back to JGP next season.

Lacoste: The only thing I can hope is no injuries between now and Canadians. Potential is there if she can keep herself healthy . Unfortunately her career has been littered with injuries so she has never had the chance to gather any momentum since her 5th place at Canadians at her first year in senior nationals in 2006. Really could do with a 4CC spot as she has already aged out of juniors internationally.

Really there are several potential contenders for the bronze in ladies at nationals this year. That is where the real interest is. The thing is that none of these skaters have the full range of triples ( cheated or not).

[Winnipeg]

WRT Ladies, for me it is a toss up between ML and CP for second. Whichever one is in 2nd, it will still be way below the and way out of reach of the gold. I mean, what would Joannie have to do to lose the Gold? Skip the event practically.

[nadster]

If Mira does not get dinged for UR's then she could finish as high as 2nd as nationals. If however the less than sign is the most prominent sign on the protocol sheet like it was in Cup of China, then she could fall way way down. She can be easily passed by several skaters if all her jumps are downgraded. Remember falls and/or pops were not Mira's problems in China, UR calls were.

The key for Mira is how strict the caller is on UR calls. She won't be competitive with Phaneuf if her jumps are downgraded.

Given Mira's results and that article where the BC section head criticized Mira, I don't think she'll avoid the less than sign like she has in previous nationals. That is why I have Mira 3rd at best.