2009 Worlds - The last before the Olympics!!

Do you think anyone can win both Worlds and go on to win the Olys?

Mao Asada - if she lands both 3As.

Do you think Czisney and Flatt's placements will add up to 13?

I think they an make it but will it continue in 2010 US Nats

With Joubert faltering, what can we expect at Worlds and Olys since I believe the French Fed will send him regardless of his placement in Worlds.

Can Pang and Tong win both? What about Savchenko and Szolkowy?

What are the chances of Delobel and Schoenfelder to take both Worlds and Olys. Who could really challenge them?

WILL THIS BE A NAILBITING WORLDS AND OLYMPICS?

Nailbiting - probably not... lol... and I'll happily eat my words this time next year

as for men - I wonder how many skaters will actually WANT to win this year's world title considering the supposed 'curse' of the World Champ going into the olympics...

It was more nailbiting before 4CC. Before the judges decided that Patrick Chan is the best quadless skater ever and that Joubert and others better learn the Quad Lutz in order to land 4 to 5 Quads in the program, because everything else is not enough against the S u p e r c h a n...

I have a similar problem with the ladies - Yu-Na Kim is an amazing skater, but if they keep throwing GOEs at her spins and her spirals, that are simply average at best - I'll just... Well, I am not sure what I will do. But it will be something drastic. Like enjoying the ladies' competition even less than normally. But Kim has definitely the goods to win Worlds and Olympics. She has no real meltdowns, good techniques...

Dance and Pairs is most interesting I think. In pairs we got 3 to 4 pairs who all had good performances this season so far, who got good marks - but who also had some inconsistencies. Dance has a whole bunch of front-runners. And it will be just as open when the Olympics are on their way - perhaps Pairs will have even one or two candidates more, e.g. if M/T manage to sort out some of their problems till next year.

Medusa - I agree with your assessment... and I love the new siggy (even if I'm not a fan of either lol)

Medusa said:

It was more nailbiting before 4CC. Before the judges decided that Patrick Chan is the best quadless skater ever and that Joubert and others better learn the Quad Lutz in order to land 4 to 5 Quads in the program, because everything else is not enough against the S u p e r c h a n...

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As much as I like reading your posts, I think that you are far too ironic on this one. Patrick has been overmarked this season, but your recent posts about him are just mean. I dont think that he deserves to be treated that way, especially BEFORE the World Championships, where ALL the skaters will have a chance to meet for the first time in the season an be judged. The competition has not happened yet! So lets wait and see what will actually happen, how the judges will judge and then we can whine and cry. And come on, it is not like Joubert is not overscored either. His PCS are hard to understand quite often too...

So much of the Men's is the skate of Joubert. I believe the thinking to be "it's his turn" among the judges. If he falters badly, and we know he can, he will be held up anyway for a silver or bronze.

Chan's chances are excelent. The Quad Club is two members out (Takahashi and Lambiel) and Verner is a 50% skater My boy, Yannik is as erratic as they get. Two good programs? Contesti - I don't really know him except for the youtube. He was good but is he capable of 2? Then there is the Japanese and the American boys. All good skaters but with sketchy quads.

What an interesting group but one of them will not be in the last group.
Brian has the most to lose in the amount of time he has spent in Senior Men. I really hope he doesn't freeze up. It's his turn, imo.

Medusa said:

I have a similar problem with the ladies - Yu-Na Kim is an amazing skater, but if they keep throwing GOEs at her spins and her spirals, that are simply average at best - I'll just... Well, I am not sure what I will do. But it will be something drastic. Like enjoying the ladies' competition even less than normally. But Kim has definitely the goods to win Worlds and Olympics. She has no real meltdowns, good techniques...

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I disagree with you. Kim's spiral has one of the smoothest change of edge, not to mention speed and ice coverage. In regards to her spins, I cannot think of one time she was rewarded exceptionally high GOEs than other ladies. At 4cc this year she was given level 2s I believe for two of her spins in her LP, which I have no problem with. She does not receive high GOEs like Zhang's amazing pearl spin, but she still managed to win because the gap between her and other ladies' TES come from GOEs in jumps, where the possible GOEs are higher. I am sure Yu-na's score won't be affected too much even if her spins and spirals get slightly lower GOEs.

Tonichelle said:

Nailbiting - probably not... lol... and I'll happily eat my words this time next year

as for men - I wonder how many skaters will actually WANT to win this year's world title considering the supposed 'curse' of the World Champ going into the olympics...

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LOL that's true! I think they' ll all try to mess up their programs somehow.. I suggest staying a couple of turns more in a sit spin in a upright-exit position..best way to lose points and keep your program clean:agree:

Medusa said:

It was more nailbiting before 4CC. Before the judges decided that Patrick Chan is the best quadless skater ever and that Joubert and others better learn the Quad Lutz in order to land 4 to 5 Quads in the program, because everything else is not enough against the S u p e r c h a n...

I have a similar problem with the ladies - Yu-Na Kim is an amazing skater, but if they keep throwing GOEs at her spins and her spirals, that are simply average at best - I'll just... Well, I am not sure what I will do. But it will be something drastic. Like enjoying the ladies' competition even less than normally. But Kim has definitely the goods to win Worlds and Olympics. She has no real meltdowns, good techniques...

Dance and Pairs is most interesting I think. In pairs we got 3 to 4 pairs who all had good performances this season so far, who got good marks - but who also had some inconsistencies. Dance has a whole bunch of front-runners. And it will be just as open when the Olympics are on their way - perhaps Pairs will have even one or two candidates more, e.g. if M/T manage to sort out some of their problems till next year.

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Um, Yu-Na always have melt-downs after a big lead in the SP. like 4cc, the worlds, and grand prix final -_-.

I heard at least one commentator mention that Chan always got what he needed in time during his previous stages of competitions. The Luz for junior, and then the 3A for senior if I remember it correctly. He(She?) also mentioned that Chan is working on the quad and believes that he will get it just in time for the 2010 olympics. I do hope that will happen. As much as I like Chan's skating, I do wish that Man's olympic champion won with at least a quad. It does not mean that one without it could not win, but just not as glorious.

Medusa said:

I have a similar problem with the ladies - Yu-Na Kim is an amazing skater, but if they keep throwing GOEs at her spins and her spirals, that are simply average at best - I'll just... Well, I am not sure what I will do. But it will be something drastic. Like enjoying the ladies' competition even less than normally. But Kim has definitely the goods to win Worlds and Olympics. She has no real meltdowns, good techniques...

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I've always thought the same thing but was too afraid to bring it up... Sure, Yu-Na's edges on her spirals are fine but her positions and stretch are really just blahh. She needs to turn her foot out and point her toes in her free leg! Her spins are not outstanding either. Some positions I really like and of course the Yu-Na camel is fantastic, but overall I prefer Mao Asada's spins.

The thing is, even if she didn't get all those positive GOE's on those spirals and spins, her skating skills and jumps will be enough to hold her up anyway. It's almost unfair that jumps are worth so much more than everything else. The skaters whose fortes are in the jumping department really luck out compared to those that are better spinners/spiralers (?).

I thought the same thing watching gymnastics in Beijing this past summer. The uneven bars start at much higher values than all the other apparatus that gymnasts like Nastia and the Chinese team really benefit from their forte in that area.

LeCygne said:

It's almost unfair that jumps are worth so much more than everything else. The skaters whose fortes are in the jumping department really luck out compared to those that are better spinners/spiralers (?).

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Well, I personally don't think spirals should hold equal or more weight than jumps or spins because the latter components are riskier and more difficult to perform. It's been said by so called experts of the sport that it's more difficult to do a great spin than it is to do a great jump, which has made me wonder why spins don't hold equal or more base value to a program than jumps. The highest base value one normally sees for a spin is 3.50, the same base value as a 2Axel done before the 2-minute mark. It seems at times some skaters think of the spins as an after-thought because they unfortunately are not worth enough to a program in comparison to jumps, and the end result is un-centered, shaky, sloppy spins that slip off the edge and are slow as molasses. I think this needs to change!

museksk8r said:

It seems at times some skaters think of the spins as an after-thought because they unfortunately are not worth enough to a program in comparison to jumps, and the end result is un-centered, shaky, sloppy spins that slip off the edge and are slow as molasses. I think this needs to change!

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I don't think so. 3.5 is quite a few points, with excellent execution you can gain even 5 points with it.

Everyone is always talking about the fact that the sport needs to be better understood - but the qualities of the spins are difficult to understand. It took me years to really find out what the change of edge during the spin is, how I can spot it and why it is somehow important in COP.

Let's take an excellent spinner, e.g. Lambiel. Hypothetically the spins are worth 5 to 7 points base value, Lambiel is so good - he gets an average of 7 points for each spin he does. But it's Lambiel at the beginning of the season and he falls on three jumps. He skates against Joubert, they have the exact same jump content - Joubert stays on his feet though, flawless jumps. But since Joubert's spins are just solid average, he only earns 3 points with each spin. Lambiel ends up winning the competition, despite the fact that he fell three times. So if a layman asks why the crazy Zebra won against Neo - the answer is: his spins were better?

What I would like to see is that the GOEs are better used. If you step out of a jump, you get -1 to -2 deducted - it doesn't matter how good the position were, how good the take-off, how difficult the entry. If you wobble on a spin, fall out of the spin (Nagasu last Junior Worlds e.g.), if you position is ugly - just deduct or give only the base-value in case of an ugly position. Yu-Na's sitspin is ugly, the position is simply ugly, but she is reasonably well-centered and not too slow. How does she end up with +1 and +2 on that sitspin? Nakano doesn't get GOEs for her well-landed jumps because she wraps her leg. So why not refuse giving GOEs for a reasonably well done spin with an ugly position? Same goes for the sbs pair spins and the pair combination spin: they rarely deduct significant amount of points for out of synch. All those combination spins among the pairs are so slow - can they please start deducting for that too?

Medusa said:

Let's take an excellent spinner, e.g. Lambiel. Hypothetically the spins are worth 5 to 7 points base value, Lambiel is so good - he gets an average of 7 points for each spin he does. But it's Lambiel at the beginning of the season and he falls on three jumps. He skates against Joubert, they have the exact same jump content - Joubert stays on his feet though, flawless jumps. But since Joubert's spins are just solid average, he only earns 3 points with each spin. Lambiel ends up winning the competition, despite the fact that he fell three times. So if a layman asks why the crazy Zebra won against Neo - the answer is: his spins were better?

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Ahhh, but that would be too simple of an explanation for Lambiel's hypothetical win over Joubert. On most accounts, Stephane also has better, more difficult footwork, choreography, musical interpretation, and transitions than Brian. I also think Lambiel has better skating skills. It wouldn't just be about the spins! Just my opinion, but Lambiel is so much better than Joubert. I can liken this hypothetical scenario to Takahashi vs. Lysacek at the 2007 Skate America LP. Speaking of which, who would have won the SP in this scenario between Stephane and Brian, and by how many points? That would make all the difference!

museksk8r said:

Ahhh, but that would be too simple of an explanation for Lambiel's hypothetical win over Joubert. On most accounts, Stephane also has better, more difficult footwork, choreography, musical interpretation, and transitions than Brian. I also think Lambiel has better skating skills. It wouldn't just be about the spins! Just my opinion, but Lambiel is so much better than Joubert. I can liken this hypothetical scenario to Takahashi vs. Lysacek at the 2007 Skate America LP. Speaking of which, who would have won the SP in this scenario between Stephane and Brian, and by how many points? That would make all the difference!

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My opinion is this: if you crash on your jumps, you either fall or single / double them - then you are already worse than the guy who might have cross-over after cross-over, but a clean 3A, 3-3 and solo Triple (speaking for the SP here). But it's similar in the LP. Stuff like this

1 Johnny WEIR USA 149.81 74.51 75.30 7.55 7.25 7.60 7.55 7.70 0.00 #11
2 Stephane LAMBIEL SUI 138.35 61.85 77.50 7.65 7.30 7.90 7.90 8.00 1.00 #12
3 Jeffrey BUTTLE CAN 136.61 66.21 71.40 7.00 6.95 7.15 7.25 7.35 1.00 #7
4 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN 135.33 74.83 60.50 6.65 5.75 5.90 6.00 5.95 0.00 #6

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where Kozuka clearly outskated Lambiel and Buttle with a nearly flawless 8-Triple-performance - just shouldn't happen in my opinion. Same goes for Skate Canada this season. Same goes for those numerous incidents where skaters are held up after the SP, e.g. Lambiel Worlds 2007, Europeans 2008... I like to go through the protocols of the SP at Worlds 2008, it was a fantastic short program.

You find Gregor Urbas, a rather boring but not completely useless skater, in 18th place - with the following jumps: 3Lz-3T (0 GOE), 3A (+0.14 GOE), 3R (0 GOE). To me this means that he brought the minimal requirements. But skaters who stumbled through their jumps (doubling, underrotating, falling) are higher placed then him. And in the cases of Buttle, Weir, Verner - that is okay, these three had the about same jump layout, they are better rounded skaters, better spinners etc. But this should be where the comparision starts: did the skaters land the jumps and stayed on their feet during the rest?

I love the Worlds 2006 competition because Joubert and Lambiel had both great long programs, Lambiel only had a tiny mistake on the loop. But they both brought their A-game, landed all their jumps, including 2 Quads and 3 Axel. They were equal on the jumps and based on the better all-round package - the better skater won. That's how it should be. If Lambiel had crashed on a jump during that program, Joubert should have won.

And if that means that Kevin Reynolds wins Olympics next year - so be it.

Medusa said:

And if that means that Kevin Reynolds wins Olympics next year - so be it.

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Reynolds would have to make TREMENDOUS strides in improving his skating skills, choreography, and musical interpretation to allow that to happen. If not, under this hypothetical circumstance, the judges would hold him down in PCS so that a win, especially at the Olympics, for him would be impossible.