This turned out to be a very bad year for Alissa.

bekalc said:

Alissa's long program was disasterous by any reasonable standard.

Click to expand...

Not by her own standard, which is what USFSA went on. People have come to expect less from Alissa. If she somehow managed to skate a 6 triple program, it would be called miraculous and the skate of her life, whereas a 6 triple program is just average for Rachael and Caroline. After a while, it's easy to just go on who skated better compared to their standard and forget that the standards are not equal.

Red Dog said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they (USFS) did a 180 and started to hold her DOWN even if she does well (by her standard, mind you).

Click to expand...

She just needs to be judged fairly based on what she puts out there each time, and if it looks like she's being held down compared to all of the overscoring, then so be it.

rallycairn said:

Do we have a medieval numerologist in our midst?

ETA: (They liked to find 3's or multiples of 3 in everything to represent the trinity, gothic cathedrals were designed in certain proportions to represent significant numbers, etc. But basically, my comment was stupid, who's going to get or care about my archaic reference? Carry on with the real discussion!)

Click to expand...

I actually really enjoyed reading about this rallycairn ;-) So this year's holy trinity of U.S. ladies figure skating are Rachael, Caroline, Alyssa... As for Ashley and Mirai, they aren't quite up to divinity standard!

Red Dog said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they (USFS) did a 180 and started to hold her DOWN even if she does well (by her standard, mind you). You know, I wish this stuff weren't happening. Wasn't NJS supposed to FIX all this stuff?!

Click to expand...

Neither would I. In fact, I am counting on it. Now, I am not sure that Alyssa will really be raking in the points next season, but if the USFSA chopped off a few to hold her down anyway, that would be kinda legitimate punishment for her "underperformance" at Worlds. From their point of view, anyway.

Something really strikes me. Alyssa has been around since 2004. It seems that since her surprise SA/SC debut in 2005, it's just been up and down for her. It seems like it's by year, with her having good results in odd-numbered years and crashing and burning in even-numbered years:

2005 = strong SA/SC debut. Sank to last at GPF

2006 = Down and out

2007 = Breakout performance at Nats, surprising everyone and finishing 3rd

2008 = Down and out (again)

2009 = US Champion

2010 = ??? (Down and out???)

If the cycle continues, we can pretty much take Alyssa off the Olympic contenders list.

Red Dog said:

Something really strikes me. Alyssa has been around since 2004. It seems that since her surprise SA/SC debut in 2005, it's just been up and down for her. It seems like it's by year, with her having good results in odd-numbered years and crashing and burning in even-numbered years:

2005 = strong SA/SC debut. Sank to last at GPF

2006 = Down and out

2007 = Breakout performance at Nats, surprising everyone and finishing 3rd

2008 = Down and out (again)

2009 = US Champion

2010 = ??? (Down and out???)

If the cycle continues, we can pretty much take Alyssa off the Olympic contenders list.

Click to expand...

Now I don't have the record of Alissa's 2007 competitions in front of me, but I do have the gut feeling that that year wasn't really that good for her either.

It's a coincidence that all of Alissa's great performances happened in odd years, but I don't think it's enough to conclude that there really is a trend going on here. Even in her "good" years, it's only one or two good competitions, not enough to distinguish from her "bad" years.

according to her website these are her results:

2008-2009 (Senior)
11th - Worlds (added by me)
9th - Four Continents Championships
1st - US National Championships
4th - Cup of Russia
3rd - Skate Canada
1st - Nebelhorn Trophy

2007-08 (Senior)
9th - US National Championships
6th - NHK Trophy
9th - Cup of China

2006-2007 (Senior)
15th - World Championships
5th - Four Continents Championships
3rd - US National Championships
9th - Cup of Russia
4th - Skate Canada

2005-2006 (Senior)
6th - World Junior Championships
7th - US National Championships
6th - Grand Prix Final
4th - Marshall's Challenge
1st - Skate Canada
2nd - Skate America
5th - Campbell's International FS Classic
2nd - Ondrej Nepela Memorial
1st - Skate Detroit

2004-2005 (Senior)
6th - World Junior Championships
7th - US National Championships
5th - Marshalls World Cup
2nd - Midwestern Sectional
4th - Skate America
1st - Eastern Great Lakes Regional
4th - Nebelhorn Trophy
1st - US Collegiate Championships

2003-2004 (Senior)
12th - US National Championships
2nd - Midwestern Sectional
1st - Eastern Great Lakes Regional
5th - Junior Grand Prix (Sofia)

2002-2003 (Senior)
10th - US National Championships
2nd - Midwestern Sectional
5th - Junior Grand Prix Final
2nd - Junior Grand Prix (Slovakia)
2nd - Junior Grand Prix (France)

2001-2002 (Senior)
1st - Gardena Trophy
11th - US National Championships
2nd - Midwestern Sectional
2nd - Eastern Great Lakes Regional

No matter what her results say, I still find her skating beautiful and hope she continues to compete/skate as long as she wants to.

krenseby said:

Now I don't have the record of Alissa's 2007 competitions in front of me, but I do have the gut feeling that that year wasn't really that good for her either.

Click to expand...

After her 3rd at Nationals that year, she ended the season with a whimper - 15th at Worlds.

I was trying to point out the cycle of breakout PERFORMANCES in those years, rather than imply that the entire season was good.

But it must have been a really big accomplishment and a great feeling for someone like Czisny who has competed all these years at Nationals with varying results and suddenly the field opens up one year and you win. That has to be an inspiration to all those girls at the mid level.

Judging on how she did at Worlds, I can't see how she will be a factor at next year's Nats. Especially if we have resurgent Flatt, Nagasu, Zhang...among others, I think she will find it rather difficult to break through.

I do not think the USFS will overscore Czisny in the future the way they did at 2009 Nationals. Her 9th at 4CC 2009 and 11th at Worlds 2009 proved for once and all that she just isn't ever going to be a competitive skater.

She'll continue to get GP and other assignments, but I doubt we'll ever see her at Worlds again.

Red Dog said:

If the cycle continues, we can pretty much take Alyssa off the Olympic contenders list.

Click to expand...

Why would she be on it in the first place? Seriously. Rachael isn't even a contender IMO (as far as what she's done so far - it could change, I guess) and she's way ahead of Alyssa at this point.

Chuckm: I wouldn't say never. That said, I think it's unlikely.

SS: No one's a contender right now. I used the wrong wording. I should have used the word HOPEFUL. What we have now are hopefuls. You can't tell me Rachel isn't that at least. Seriously though, all of the top 5 or 6 in the US (Yes, that includes Alyssa) are hopefuls. As for the contenders, we'll know next season.