Preparing for the 2010 Olympics - Top Contenders

R.D. · Apr 3, 2009

First off, speedy recovery and resurgence to Nagasu and Meissner. Hopefully they can be in the mix next year.

Flatt should just keep doing what she is doing now and improve herself.

Zhang and Wagner have their work cut out for them, but they can do it.

Czisny, sadly, I have little to no hope in. I don't think she will get the advantage if 2010 Nats turns out to be like the 2009 edition.

The up-and-comers (who I don't really know the names of), should strive to be better but I think they will miss out on 2010. Time to revise for 2014.

Mathman · Apr 3, 2009

IMHO Kim Yu-na's situation right now is like Slutskaya's after the 2005 World Championship. She is so far out ahead of everyone that we might as well give her the gold medal now.

But, like Slutskaya, that aura of invincibility is hard to sustain for a whole year. Kim's absolute peak came with her astonishing short program. Two days later, for the long, I think she got a lot of "momentum points" from the judges.

I hope she will approach next season as if she is starting over at the bottom of the hill, planning to crest the summit in February. The season is just too draining otherwise.

I think Mao Asada will come out with a program next season that allows her to breathe and take her time with her elements. This year, her LP was so unrelenting it is no wonder that she was struggling to keep her head above water. Mrs. Taravova pretty much admitted that she was pushing Mao to the limit in this non-Olympic season, so she can sparkle all the brighter next year.

I look at Mao's 2008-09 season as training with weights on your ankles. Next season she will take them off, back off the frenetic pace, and hit every element with ease.

(My predicted podium: Rochette, Ando, Zhang.

)

evangeline · Apr 3, 2009

jettasian said:
Since when has Chan alienatling other skaters? Since when was Chan talking trash other other skaters besides telling the truth about the marks?

I wish people get the facts right before writing something that doesn't make sense at all...

When did I ever say that Chan has been alienating other skaters? I said that he had been alienating people (i.e. like me and other posters who have previously voiced their disapproval of his comments). And you know what? I actually agree with what Chan said about PCS, about how the quad isn't the be-all-and-end-all of figure skating. I, however, disliked how he mixed those comments in with attacks on Joubert's personality, which hardly constitutes as "the truth about the marks."

Maybe you should take your own advice sometimes.

Tonichelle · Apr 3, 2009

Re: Evan and Quad

would he really be ADDING it or just bringing it back? ADDING sounds like he never had one (which okay based on the judging this season he might not get credit for landing one, but you kno what I mean)

jsteam4501s · Apr 4, 2009

screech said:
PLUSHENKO, KWAN, COHEN: Stay home.

:agree:Absolutely! I am American, but if Sasha and Michelle go to Vancouver, I root for Yu-Na, Mao, and Miki.

Let Rachael and/or Caroline, Mirai, Ashley or Alissa have their shots at it.

R.D. · Apr 4, 2009

We need an American on top. I don't want to be stuck with Cohen and Kwan as those Americans, though. Not because I hate them but because I don't think they'd be any more competitive than Flatt would be at this point (plus, they've had multiple chances already). If we had three spots, it would be one thing, since you could have one of them plus two newcomers; but since we have only two, then both should be of the current generation.

Jaana · Apr 4, 2009

Mathman said:
Without a quad, it would be tricky to do two triple Axels and a triple-triple-triple. You can only do 8 triples altogether, and you have already done five of them in three jumping passes.

Plus, you can only repeat two of them, so if you did, say, 3Lz+3T+3T, then you could do another Lutz. If you did 3Lz+3Lo+3T then you couldn't do a solo loop if you also did a second Lutz. You would most likely end up having to do a couple of double Axels for your last two jumping passes.

What would be the best scenario, then, please?

jsteam4501s · Apr 4, 2009

Red Dog said:
We need an American on top. I don't want to be stuck with Cohen and Kwan as those Americans, though. Not because I hate them but because I don't think they'd be any more competitive than Flatt would be .............

Let me be clear that I also do not hate Cohen or Kwan. However, even if they both went to Vancouver and won the top two medals, I would not like it at all!

It's because I firmly believe in the traditional idea of having your best "amateur" athletes who have worked their way up, finally making the Olympic team, whether they win gold, silver, or bronze, or finish off the podium, but still having that joyous experience of participating for their country. If the athlete stays eligible for a 2nd Olympics, that's fine.

Even as one of the greatest Tara Lipinski fans in America, I would not welcome her back either for the Vancouver Olympics.
Kimmie Meissner? Yes, because she has not left eligible skating.

Mathman · Apr 4, 2009

Jaana said:
What would be the best scenario, then, please?

I think your suggestion of a 3A+3T combination and/or a triple-triple-triple combination does produce the absolute maximum number of CoP points. But to do this Evan would have to do a triple loop in combination.

Without a quad, a skater trying to maximize his eight passes under the Zayak rules would want to do

3A
3A combo
3Lz
3Lz combo
3F
3Lo
3S
3T

The only way to beat this is to start doubling up on the triples:

3A
3A+3T
3Lz
3Lz+3Lo
3F+2T+2Lo
3S

Now he has saved two jumping passes and can put a 2A in each of them and score an extra 7 points. This program is worth 57.2 base points, not including second half bonus.

Or he can do

3A
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T+3Lo
3F+2Lo (only one three-jump combo is allowed)
3S
2A
2A

which is exactly the same, 57.2 base points.

Lysacek’s actual layout (not in order) was

3A
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T
3F+2T+2Lo
3Lo
3S
2A

This is 55.0 base points.

So to gain an extra 2.2 points Evan would either have to upgrade his 3Lz+3T to 3Lz+3T+3Lo or else upgrade his 3A+2T to 3A+3T and upgrade his 3Lz+3T to 3Lz+3Lo. Plus, he would have to put at least one of his hard combinations in the second half of the program.

I don’t think Evan’s 3A is good enough to count on a on 3A+3T. And in any case, he would have to do a triple loop as the last jump of a combination – I don’t think he has ever done that in competition (?)

All of that would gain him only 2.2 extra points, compared to his present layout.

So I think Evan is cool just the way he is.

jennylovskt · Apr 4, 2009

jettasian said:
Since when was Chan not talking nicely about others besides rebuffing Joubert's egoistic comments? And why learn something from Kwan whom choked TWICE in Olympic games?

Chan, just be honest and say what's in your mind and skate with your heart!

That was not called rebuffing. Joubert didn't talk about Chan on anything. Chan attacked Joubert in the name of Buttle. I don't think Jeffrey Buttle would appreciate that. Chan talked in such direct, harsh, and personal ways, also linked it to the great skaters in the past. If you use a little more of your rational judgement, you might come up with more reasonable answers.

Kwan never got Olympic gold, but she was one of the greatest figure skaters on the planet in many ways. She never talked trash on any of her opponents any time. That was what I was talking about that Chan should learn from her.

R.D. · Apr 4, 2009

But to be DA- so many skaters come up with the same canned comments all the time. What's stale about a little pot-stirring here?

Jaana · Apr 4, 2009

Mathman said:
All of that would gain him only 2.2 extra points, compared to his present layout.

So I think Evan is cool just the way he is.

Mathman, thanks so much for explaining the matter so clearly! Yeah, I agree, the present layout is cool.

R.D. · Apr 4, 2009

My predicted podium: Rochette, Ando, Zhang.

You think Rochete can win at home? That's a lot of pressure. Look what happened to Kwan in Salt Lake and Kostner in Torino...

I do hope someone OTHER than Kim or Asada can win though.

Particle Man · Apr 4, 2009

jsteam4501s said:
Let me be clear that I also do not hate Cohen or Kwan. However, even if they both went to Vancouver and won the top two medals, I would not like it at all!

Then you're crazy, because in that extremely unlikely scenario, you should just jump for utter joy that any of our skaters could win a medal. None of the current US girls have a prayer at silver or gold, and bronze is extremely unlikely as well.

jsteam4501s said:
It's because I firmly believe in the traditional idea of having your best "amateur" athletes who have worked their way up, finally making the Olympic team, whether they win gold, silver, or bronze, or finish off the podium, but still having that joyous experience of participating for their country. If the athlete stays eligible for a 2nd Olympics, that's fine.

Umm, lol? What, skaters are presidents now, they are limited to 2 terms in office? :rofl:

What about Michelle Kwan and all her Nationals and Worlds gold medals, surely she well exceeded her "term in office" by taking all those gold medals from the "amateurs?"

i love to skate · Apr 4, 2009

Red Dog said:
You think Rochete can win at home? That's a lot of pressure. Look what happened to Kwan in Salt Lake and Kostner in Torino...

I do hope someone OTHER than Kim or Asada can win though.

I think it will be a different amount of pressure. In 2002 Michelle was the reigning World Champion, the favorite, and also had pressure because she got silver in Nagano. Kostner was the Flag Bearer and was pretty much the only figure skater from Italy with a shot at a medal.

With Joannie it is a whole different game, the focus will be on Kim and Asada so she can slip in there quitely. Canada will have a very strong figure skating team with chances for multiple medals so she won't have to handle all the pressure by herself. I think Joannie has a very good chance of playing spoiler. I can't wait to see it happen (hopefully) :love:

Danale · Apr 4, 2009

Mathman said:
<Entire post>

Wow, someone should really hire you to do it for money :biggrin:

Very interesting, thank you.

Ladskater · Apr 4, 2009

joesitz said:
what do the top contenders need to work on in preparation of their lp or fd skates at the olys?

everything!!!!

screech · Apr 4, 2009

i love to skate said:
With Joannie it is a whole different game, the focus will be on Kim and Asada so she can slip in there quitely. Canada will have a very strong figure skating team with chances for multiple medals so she won't have to handle all the pressure by herself. I think Joannie has a very good chance of playing spoiler. I can't wait to see it happen (hopefully)

There is already a lot of pressure on the Canadian skaters. There are constantly ads on TV with various Canadian athletes (though Chan is the only skater used) portraying them and constantly reminding us that no Canadian has ever won O's gold on home soil and saying how the athlete profiled can do it. So yeah, pressure. All of them will be feeling it going in. I just hope for this reason no skater is picked to carry the flag (though I actually kind of think Chan might be a potential finalist in the choices).

i love to skate · Apr 4, 2009

screech said:
There is already a lot of pressure on the Canadian skaters. There are constantly ads on TV with various Canadian athletes (though Chan is the only skater used) portraying them and constantly reminding us that no Canadian has ever won O's gold on home soil and saying how the athlete profiled can do it. So yeah, pressure. All of them will be feeling it going in. I just hope for this reason no skater is picked to carry the flag (though I actually kind of think Chan might be a potential finalist in the choices).

I know there will be pressure that's why I said it was a good thing that it will be spread across all our skaters and not just on one person. They had tonnes of pressure on them in LA and look how well they did! They know they can draw back on this for next year. I don't think Patrick will have a shot at Flag Bearer as there are much more accomplished athletes for that. That would be much too overwhelming for a nineteen year old kid.

Joesitz (RIP) · Apr 4, 2009

If pressure causes a faulty performance, then it should be checked now and ongoing until the Olys. Get lots of meaningless comps under the belt.

Most top skaters know how to handle pressure and nerves. In fact they use it to skate better.

First timers at Olys will not be expected to even get to the podium. This may help them to the podium - no nerves - just excitement! Think Kozuka, Leonova, Flatt (maybe), and who else?

Preparing for the 2010 Olympics - Top Contenders

R.D.

Mathman

evangeline

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

jsteam4501s

R.D.

Jaana

jsteam4501s

Mathman

jennylovskt

R.D.

Jaana

R.D.

Particle Man

Match Penalty

i love to skate

Danale

Ladskater

~ Figure Skating Is My Passion ~

screech

i love to skate

Joesitz (RIP)

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