Preparing for the 2010 Olympics - Top Contenders

[R.D.]

We need an American on top. I don't want to be stuck with Cohen and Kwan as those Americans, though. Not because I hate them but because I don't think they'd be any more competitive than Flatt would be at this point (plus, they've had multiple chances already). If we had three spots, it would be one thing, since you could have one of them plus two newcomers; but since we have only two, then both should be of the current generation.

[Jaana]

Without a quad, it would be tricky to do two triple Axels and a triple-triple-triple. You can only do 8 triples altogether, and you have already done five of them in three jumping passes.

Plus, you can only repeat two of them, so if you did, say, 3Lz+3T+3T, then you could do another Lutz. If you did 3Lz+3Lo+3T then you couldn't do a solo loop if you also did a second Lutz. You would most likely end up having to do a couple of double Axels for your last two jumping passes.

What would be the best scenario, then, please?

[jsteam4501s]

[QUOTE=Red Dog;388452]We need an American on top. I don't want to be stuck with Cohen and Kwan as those Americans, though. Not because I hate them but because I don't think they'd be any more competitive than Flatt would be .............

Let me be clear that I also do not hate Cohen or Kwan. However, even if they both went to Vancouver and won the top two medals, I would not like it at all!

It's because I firmly believe in the traditional idea of having your best "amateur" athletes who have worked their way up, finally making the Olympic team, whether they win gold, silver, or bronze, or finish off the podium, but still having that joyous experience of participating for their country. If the athlete stays eligible for a 2nd Olympics, that's fine.

Even as one of the greatest Tara Lipinski fans in America, I would not welcome her back either for the Vancouver Olympics.
Kimmie Meissner? Yes, because she has not left eligible skating.

[Mathman]

What would be the best scenario, then, please?

I think your suggestion of a 3A+3T combination and/or a triple-triple-triple combination does produce the absolute maximum number of CoP points. But to do this Evan would have to do a triple loop in combination.

Without a quad, a skater trying to maximize his eight passes under the Zayak rules would want to do

3A
3A combo
3Lz
3Lz combo
3F
3Lo
3S
3T

The only way to beat this is to start doubling up on the triples:

3A
3A+3T
3Lz
3Lz+3Lo
3F+2T+2Lo
3S

Now he has saved two jumping passes and can put a 2A in each of them and score an extra 7 points. This program is worth 57.2 base points, not including second half bonus.

Or he can do

3A
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T+3Lo
3F+2Lo (only one three-jump combo is allowed)
3S
2A
2A

which is exactly the same, 57.2 base points.

Lysacek’s actual layout (not in order) was

3A
3A+2T
3Lz
3Lz+3T
3F+2T+2Lo
3Lo
3S
2A

This is 55.0 base points.

So to gain an extra 2.2 points Evan would either have to upgrade his 3Lz+3T to 3Lz+3T+3Lo or else upgrade his 3A+2T to 3A+3T and upgrade his 3Lz+3T to 3Lz+3Lo. Plus, he would have to put at least one of his hard combinations in the second half of the program.

I don’t think Evan’s 3A is good enough to count on a on 3A+3T. And in any case, he would have to do a triple loop as the last jump of a combination – I don’t think he has ever done that in competition (?)

All of that would gain him only 2.2 extra points, compared to his present layout.

So I think Evan is cool just the way he is.

[jennylovskt]

Since when was Chan not talking nicely about others besides rebuffing Joubert's egoistic comments? And why learn something from Kwan whom choked TWICE in Olympic games?

Chan, just be honest and say what's in your mind and skate with your heart!

That was not called rebuffing. Joubert didn't talk about Chan on anything. Chan attacked Joubert in the name of Buttle. I don't think Jeffrey Buttle would appreciate that. Chan talked in such direct, harsh, and personal ways, also linked it to the great skaters in the past. If you use a little more of your rational judgement, you might come up with more reasonable answers.

Kwan never got Olympic gold, but she was one of the greatest figure skaters on the planet in many ways. She never talked trash on any of her opponents any time. That was what I was talking about that Chan should learn from her.

[R.D.]

But to be DA- so many skaters come up with the same canned comments all the time. What's stale about a little pot-stirring here?

[Jaana]

All of that would gain him only 2.2 extra points, compared to his present layout.

So I think Evan is cool just the way he is.

Mathman, thanks so much for explaining the matter so clearly! Yeah, I agree, the present layout is cool.

[R.D.]

My predicted podium: Rochette, Ando, Zhang.

You think Rochete can win at home? That's a lot of pressure. Look what happened to Kwan in Salt Lake and Kostner in Torino...

I do hope someone OTHER than Kim or Asada can win though.

[Particle Man]

Let me be clear that I also do not hate Cohen or Kwan. However, even if they both went to Vancouver and won the top two medals, I would not like it at all!

Then you're crazy, because in that extremely unlikely scenario, you should just jump for utter joy that any of our skaters could win a medal. None of the current US girls have a prayer at silver or gold, and bronze is extremely unlikely as well.

It's because I firmly believe in the traditional idea of having your best "amateur" athletes who have worked their way up, finally making the Olympic team, whether they win gold, silver, or bronze, or finish off the podium, but still having that joyous experience of participating for their country. If the athlete stays eligible for a 2nd Olympics, that's fine.

Umm, lol? What, skaters are presidents now, they are limited to 2 terms in office? What about Michelle Kwan and all her Nationals and Worlds gold medals, surely she well exceeded her "term in office" by taking all those gold medals from the "amateurs?"

[i love to skate]

You think Rochete can win at home? That's a lot of pressure. Look what happened to Kwan in Salt Lake and Kostner in Torino...

I do hope someone OTHER than Kim or Asada can win though.

I think it will be a different amount of pressure. In 2002 Michelle was the reigning World Champion, the favorite, and also had pressure because she got silver in Nagano. Kostner was the Flag Bearer and was pretty much the only figure skater from Italy with a shot at a medal.

With Joannie it is a whole different game, the focus will be on Kim and Asada so she can slip in there quitely. Canada will have a very strong figure skating team with chances for multiple medals so she won't have to handle all the pressure by herself. I think Joannie has a very good chance of playing spoiler. I can't wait to see it happen (hopefully)

[Danale]

<Entire post>

Wow, someone should really hire you to do it for money
Very interesting, thank you.

[Ladskater]

what do the top contenders need to work on in preparation of their lp or fd skates at the olys?

everything!!!!

[screech]

With Joannie it is a whole different game, the focus will be on Kim and Asada so she can slip in there quitely. Canada will have a very strong figure skating team with chances for multiple medals so she won't have to handle all the pressure by herself. I think Joannie has a very good chance of playing spoiler. I can't wait to see it happen (hopefully)

There is already a lot of pressure on the Canadian skaters. There are constantly ads on TV with various Canadian athletes (though Chan is the only skater used) portraying them and constantly reminding us that no Canadian has ever won O's gold on home soil and saying how the athlete profiled can do it. So yeah, pressure. All of them will be feeling it going in. I just hope for this reason no skater is picked to carry the flag (though I actually kind of think Chan might be a potential finalist in the choices).

[i love to skate]

There is already a lot of pressure on the Canadian skaters. There are constantly ads on TV with various Canadian athletes (though Chan is the only skater used) portraying them and constantly reminding us that no Canadian has ever won O's gold on home soil and saying how the athlete profiled can do it. So yeah, pressure. All of them will be feeling it going in. I just hope for this reason no skater is picked to carry the flag (though I actually kind of think Chan might be a potential finalist in the choices).

I know there will be pressure that's why I said it was a good thing that it will be spread across all our skaters and not just on one person. They had tonnes of pressure on them in LA and look how well they did! They know they can draw back on this for next year. I don't think Patrick will have a shot at Flag Bearer as there are much more accomplished athletes for that. That would be much too overwhelming for a nineteen year old kid.

[Joesitz]

If pressure causes a faulty performance, then it should be checked now and ongoing until the Olys. Get lots of meaningless comps under the belt.

Most top skaters know how to handle pressure and nerves. In fact they use it to skate better.

First timers at Olys will not be expected to even get to the podium. This may help them to the podium - no nerves - just excitement! Think Kozuka, Leonova, Flatt (maybe), and who else?