I don't believe spoilers are needed any more.
Caroline Zhang did well in the Tokyo Invitational. Is this enough to put her in the class of Mao, YuNa, Joannie, and to a lesser extent to Carolina, Sarah?
( Aside:Will she have any problem medalling gold or silver in US Nats?)
Of course she is. I figure she will turn in the best performance at next year's nationals, then get screwed down one spot ( going by past history here ). So I expect silver for Caroline, and probably gold for Rachael or Mirai. That will be our Olympic team. Where they place will depend on how they improve over the summer.
Caroline is no Olympic contender simply because she has been consistently getting low PCS during her whole competitive career on the senior circuit.
This means that her best possible finish at the Olympics (or Worlds) is 4th or 3rd, even if her TES beats everyone else's by several points.
If her best possible performance nets her a 3rd or 4th place, an imperfect performance from her would bring her down to 6th or 7th place.
From my vantagepoint, all three of Nagaso, Wagner, and Flatt have better scoring potential at the Olympics and Worlds.
So If I were the USFSA, I would choose Flatt and Nagaso or Flatt and Wagner for the Olympic team and leave Caroline home. Of course, all of this thinking goes out the window if Caroline's PCS suddenly goes up.
If Caroline's PCS is quite a bit higher, she will be unbeatable. She could even get Olympic silver. But I don't anticipate this.
Ooh, the invective that will be hurled for mentioning Caroline in the same breath as Mao and Yu-Na!
She cannot be truly competitive with Asada, Kim and Rochette at this point (never with Rochette, since she's the de facto held up lady these days), but I can see her beating Meier, Kostner and some of the other European ladies if she remains her consistent and steady self. If Kostner is even halfway clean, she'll beat Zhang. I can see Caroline sneaking in for bronze if she's completely clean and rotates her 3-3, and one of the holy trinity (maybe Ando, too) has a meltdown of truly epic proportions. I wouldn't underestimate Flatt, either, who has that whole Sarah Hughes "I'll swoop in when everyone least expects it" vibe about her.
I think the international judges have clearly shown they like Zhang, but really, it's her PCS scores that are ultimately keeping her down. Asada was more than 10 points ahead of Zhang in the PCS at the WTT! Caroline has gotten better at cleaning up her jumps (hence her having the top TES), but she has to further refine her technique, pick up more speed, and make her skating more 'dynamic', if you will, in order for her to be a real contender. Zhang's sublime spins and spirals, coupled with her competitive toughness, have already served her in very good stead.
Last edited by Andalusia; 04-18-2009 at 10:12 AM.
An Olympic contender at this point in her career? I doubt it. Given her flutz, toe pick jump issues and lack of speed, she has a lot to work on. That doesn't mean that she isn't a beautiful skater who can bring me to tears. But she still doesn't have the skating skills of Kim, Asada and Rochette.
A potential Olympian, I should hope so. She has been very consistent over the past few years with the exception of her SP at 4CCs during which she had the flu. I think that if she can start to correct her issues, that she could be a contender for 2014 in Sochi.
Andalusia, you and I were writing similar responses at the same time. Are you sure that you're not my Doppelganger?
Last edited by efreedman; 04-18-2009 at 10:12 AM.
It'd be a compliment to me if I was.Originally Posted by efreedman
I think she can contend for a medal. Who knows? It would disasters from others for gold, but a medal, maybe if Ando, Kostner, Rochette screw up, and that is not THAT unlikely either.
Maybe four years from now she can attend.
As for Nagasu having more potential, that depends on if Mirai can start rotating her freaking jumps, but even she if clean, i think it would go to Mao/Kim.
At this point Zhang/Flatt have to be the frontrunners for the team... At the very least both girls have to have more respect from the USFSA judges now....
Uh, neither of those three get much higher PCS than Zhang. All of their PCS are around the same range, which is typical for young skaters who have only just begun their senior careers. Zhang even beat Flatt in PCS at Nats in the LP, which is actually quite shocking, considering the national judges don't like Caroline.
Caroline has an advantage in TES in that if she's completely clean, as all the others are, there's a strong likelihood she'll score higher than them because her spins and spirals are amongst the best in the world and get huge +GOE.
But Flatt and Nagaso's skating is dynamic enough, especially Nagaso's, that they are likely to see their PCS grow with increased exposure.
Ditto for Wagner, whose basic skating skills and transitions were, dare I say, breathtaking this season.
Caroline has already had a lot of exposure on the GP circuits and her lack of PCS is not due to her being not well known but is rather linked to real issues with her skating.
The point is Caroline keeps on skating and her PCS keeps being low. How will that change?
Wagner more scoring potential than Zhang. Please, Wagner has been clearly having issues with rotating her jumps. I would seriously hope by now that the USFSA is over the whole "scoring potential" crap.
Yes she is, If that was the case than Tara and Sarah shouldn't have Won and OSkana with their bad technique.
SHe has the goods.
If you haven't notice the new GOE"S states that the aren't going to let the Judges no if the callers downgrade a jump or whatever.
They are also easier on the Goes and the are ALLOWING Cheating to WIN the Olympics again.
The new proctocols call for -1,s based on the judges so if one judge like what he see he can give her +1 or don't like he /she can give her -1 or whatever.
Only if the judges sees it. In other words the judges can cheat for their own country skaters more likely.
You are just jealous she can do it if necessary and ALissa and some other onces cant.
Can she win or medal possible, just like all the other US Women, they can win or medal. With YU-na and MAo doubtful and Because it been held in Canada with Joannie . Doubtful but still possible.
Never say never or can't , because just when you think they can't something happens and it is the case.Witholympics, politics and cheating goes hand in hand.
The word potential means that if Wagner would rotate all of her jumps, she would clearly be ahead of Zhang.
I do not claim that Wagner is more consistent or a better jumper than Zhang. But if she puts it all together one day, she will leave Zhang behind in the dust.
I seem to recall at Junior Worlds Wagner going clean in 2007 and the judges going with Zhang....And this wasn't the case of this is a new skater we haven't seen before like Nagasu.
It's not like Wagner even if clean is going to get HUGE Goe's on her jumps....And PCS wise they get about the same.
I wouldn't be too sure that their PCS will improve with increased exposure - I'll believe that when it actually happens. Flatt's speed is about on par with Zhang's, and all her elements besides the jumps are average at best (and her jumping ability isn't close to being the best in the world, either) - I don't see how she warrants much higher PCS than Zhang. Some say Flatt is more expressive and artistic, but that is subjective. Nagasu has good basics, but her UR issues have existed even before this season, and it remains to be seen if she can clean those up. Wagner is faster than Zhang, but she's inconsistent and has jump issues, not to mention the fact that her non-jumping elements do not garner huge +GOE.
But you are right, Caroline's PCS have not increased dramatically, because yes, her basic skating skills are not quite up to snuff yet. I see some improvement in those areas, but she'll have to improve much more before she sees a rise in her PCS. Who knows, though - judging can be fickle, and we might see Flatt and Zhang receiving higher PCS next season for having 'paid their dues', so to speak.
Oh, please. And if Zhang gets much faster and improves her SS, she'll be far ahead of Wagner, too. One can argue about it back and forth all you like.
Stuff potential - actually delivering when it matters is what counts the most.
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