Caroline Zhang - Is She an Oly Contender?

[PolymerBob]

I don't recall who, but somebody pointed out a few months ago that Caroline has the most room to improve because she has the most problems. ( How is that for ironic? ) The more problems she fixes, the better she will get.

While I am not an uber-fan of either, I must concede that Mao and Yu-Na are great athletes - the best in the world. There will never be a competition where somebody hangs a gold medal around Caroline's neck while Mao and Yu-Na get less, or nothing.

( Wait a second. That happened this morning. )

[bekalc]

I agree. I thought Meissner and Hughes would be the two US skaters to lead us to 2010 and it turned out neither of them had any staying power whatsoever. Now we've got a whole bunch of young skaters who aren't quite there yet, and the timing is so unfortunate.

I don't know...I kind of expected Asada/Kim to be the dominant ones before Torino.. They were dominating juniors back then.. .Meissner I'm a lot shocked by though.

[Mathman]

While I am not an uber-fan of either, I must concede that Mao and Yu-Na are great athletes - the best in the world. There will never be a competition where somebody hangs a gold medal around Caroline's neck while Mao and Yu-Na get less, or nothing.

( Wait a second. That happened this morning. )

[flying camel]

Also Bebe & Alissa should have been next in line to be the stars for the US but neither one could stay on their feet.

[Tinymavy15]

Caroline is a condender for the olympic team not for a medal. Yeah, anything theoretically could happen, but realistically...no. Top 5 ok, top ten for sure.

[Wrlmy]

Out of all the worldclass athletes sauf Yuna, Caroline was the only one to survive the UR frenzy. Ironic much? Everything bodes well for her. If she continues to skate like this, she can easily beat Ando and Rochette in TES. The only problem is pcs, but I feel her pcs will rise next season.

As a rookie, you have to either win big, or defeat a big gun to make a name for yourself. That's precisely what Mao did (beating Sasha at TEB and Irina at GPF) and Yuna did (beating Kimmie at TEB and beating Mao at GPF) on their first senior season. Caro hasn't defeated the skaters at the very top, but she has beaten Kostner, Nakano, and Ando to name a few. If she outskates any one of the top 3 during the gps next season (with the help of one of them having a meltdown, she can seal the deal, that is, judges will take her seriously. I hope she goes Yuna route and gets a short program with lots of flair to boost pcs as well as the standing/reputation going into the long program.

[bekalc]

As a rookie, you have to either win big, or defeat a big gun to make a name for yourself. That's precisely what Mao did (beating Sasha at TEB and Irina at GPF) and Yuna did (beating Kimmie at TEB and beating Mao at GPF) on their first senior season. Caro hasn't defeated the skaters at the very top, but she has beaten Kostner, Nakano, and Ando to name a few. If she outskates any one of the top 3 during the gps next season (with the help of one of them having a meltdown, she can seal the deal, that is, judges will take her seriously. I hope she goes Yuna route and gets a short program with lots of flair to boost pcs as well as the standing/reputation going into the long program.

I disagree. Sure PCS is some reputation, but well I think what holds Zhang/Flatt back is the fact that their skating skills, ice coverage, speed and presentation are below the other top women by quote a lot... The judges can see those girls versus the other girls head to head... I mean they've seen quite a lot from Zhang/Flatt. Zhang even made the GPF placing fourth..So if it was just a matter of we don't know you, Zhang's PCS especially would be higher.

I don't think it would matter if Zhang beats Kim/Asada due to a meltdown, unless Zhang shows that her skating skills, basics, and presentation is on par or even close to the other top women. I don't think it's a matter of the judges holding them down because a top American lady would be good for the sport.

I mean yes Yu-na when she was starting out did not get huge PCS like she gets now. But you know where PCS at Skate Canada were about if not higher than what Zhang got. Yu-na had a bit of a meltdown in the long. But by the time she went to TEB, she was getting way higher PCS than Caroline/Rachael have ever received....So Kim and I suspect Asada's days of low PCS (Asada beat Sasha second time on the Senior circuit) were extremely short too. Why because Asada/Kim weren't just out jumping the other ladies. They were also showing off amazing skating skills and basics and good artistry.

Zhang and Flatt are not going to be regarded at the level of Asada, Rochette, Kim, Ando or Kostner. Until they show that their skating skills (not just their jumps) warrant this.... Until they pick up speed etc, their Pcs shouldn't be anywhere close to the top ladies.

[demarinis5]

I don't think anyone is disputing Rachael and Caroline PCS right know. If they improve their basic skating skills they will be much more competitive score wise with the other ladies. Will they catch up with Kim/Asada probably not but Caroline is capable of scoring high TES as well as Rachael. Caroline and Rachael may be lacking in some skills but they know how to maximize what they do well which bodes well for both of them.

[bekalc]

I don't think anyone is disputing Rachael and Caroline PCS right know. If they improve their basic skating skills they will be much more competitive score wise with the other ladies. Will they catch up with Kim/Asada probably not but Caroline is capable of scoring high TES as well as Rachael. Caroline and Rachael may be lacking in some skills but they know how to maximize what they do well which bodes well for both of them.

Well exactly. I think they both will do well if they continue on this path. And I think it's a good thing that things like basic skating matter more too. I hear the USFSA is starting to look into having developing skaters train figures.

[Wrlmy]

I don't expect them to get Yuna-level pcs. But I expect their pcs to improve by 1-2points if they maximize their strengths and get great programs. Skating skill is, at least in principle, only 20% of pcs, and getting a great program as well as building reputation should boost overall pcs. And those 1-2 points can be big.

[bekalc]

I don't expect them to get Yuna-level pcs. But I expect their pcs to improve by 1-2points if they maximize their strengths and get great programs. Skating skill is, at least in principle, only 20% of pcs, and getting a great program as well as building reputation should boost overall pcs. And those 1-2 points can be big.

Well true, I can see that.

[R.D.]

I don't know...I kind of expected Asada/Kim to be the dominant ones before Torino.. They were dominating juniors back then.. .Meissner I'm a lot shocked by though.

It was clear to me that they would dominate when the following season came and their scores blew everyone else's out of the water. And Asada was on the scene before that, beating all our current Olympic medalists in various comps (Cohen and Arakawa in TEB, Slute in GPF).

I agree with you about Meissner. And Hughes, for that matter, although I knew as soon as she got hurt before '08 Nats that that was probably it for her. And as much as I hate to say this, I think it's time to stick a fork in them- at least Hughes, anyway. She seems to have moved onto college.

Also stick a fork in whomever claims they want to "come back" for the Olympic season. Not going to happen and/or injury will take them out anyway.

[R.D.]

Also Bebe & Alissa should have been next in line to be the stars for the US but neither one could stay on their feet.

BeBe?? Alyssa??? Don't make me laugh!

Give Czisny Yu Na's speed, MK's (non-Olympic) confidence under pressure and Asada's jump arsenal and then maybe she can be a contender. Heck, just give her the confidence portion and that's three steps forward already. But obviously that's not going to happen. Didn't happen in four years of competing...don't see why it would suddenly appear in four months.

somebody hangs a gold medal around Caroline's neck while Mao and Yu-Na get less, or nothing.

But Yu Na didn't compete there (or did she??)

[bekalc]

It was clear to me that they would dominate when the following season came and their scores blew everyone else's out of the water. And Asada was on the scene before that, beating all our current Olympic medalists in various comps (Cohen and Arakawa in TEB, Slute in GPF).

Asada and Kim were big time talked about as soon as they made their way as Juniors in 2005....:lol: By 2006 when Asada was beating people like Slutskaya, and Yu-na was dominating Juniors with TES higher than the Seniors on the JGP... I read somewhere, that the ISU was sending judges to look at Kim's jumps when she was just a Junior. :lol: Let's just say it was clear where the wind was going.

It helped too that clearly people like Irina, Sasha etc were going to retire. So new people were going to have to win anyways... It was kind of like when Yagudin/Plushenko burst onto the scene. The judges just couldn't deny them even if they were young.

Sometimes though it can take the skater time to get use to the pressure and expectations. I feel bad for Kim and Asada, because neither of them got to even be really underdogs. Or enjoy less pressure. There's no doubt in my mind that Flatt and Zhang have way less pressure and expectations than those two. And less pressure can be well freeing. Kim and Asada both made less mistakes as Juniors and well they had less pressure than. Remember Mao's joy in 2006 when the girl had absolutely nothing to lose?

I could be wrong but a part of me suspects that if Flatt/Zhang found themselves in a position where they could "really contend" we might see some more mistakes from both.

somebody hangs a gold medal around Caroline's neck while Mao and Yu-Na get less, or nothing.

Mao did everything she could. She won the ladies and beat Zhang. There was nothing she could do about the fact that Zhang was part of the better team.... Any more than it's Yu-na's fault that Korea wasn't at the World Team Trophy.

[R.D.]

whole post

I agree. But Kim has it the worst since she's her country's only dominant skater. Actually, I'll turn the tides around and say I like that they'll have immense pressure because it means that the final results may NOT be what people might be expecting. Of course, one or both could rise to the challenge, but more often than not nowadays, the favorites falter and an underdog sneaks in for the win.

The concern now should be the Olympic SP. Kim and/or Asada could rush out to an insurmountable lead and it wouldn't matter how they skated the FS, the competition would be over at that point.