This pretty much sums it up. Great post. :agree:
Caroline Zhang - Is She an Oly Contender?
- Thread starter Joesitz (RIP)
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This pretty much sums it up. Great post. :agree:
Aha, I'm mistaken, I thought her first Worlds was in L.A. in 2009. She was the very last skater to skate her LP this year.
So, she had been to a previous Worlds and had been European champion...makes sense as to why her PCS would go up. She deserves it - I think Lepisto's a gorgeous skater and far superior to Kostner and Rochette presentation-wise. If she did the harder jumps and had less mistakes, her PCS would be even higher.
Uh, no. Caroline cannot do a real lutz like Yu-Na, and the idea that she's working on a 3A is a joke, because the axel is her worst jump ever. She approaches that jump almost as if she's afraid of it - as Dick Button would say, "there's no jump in that jump."
And sure, Caroline can land more jumps and do the sal and loop as compared to Yu-Na and Mao, but CoP favours quality over quantity.
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Uh, no. Caroline cannot do a real lutz like Yu-Na, and the idea that she's working on a 3A is a joke, because the axel is her worst jump ever. She approaches that jump almost as if she's afraid of it - as Dick Button would say, "there's no jump in that jump."
And sure, Caroline can land more jumps and do the sal and loop as compared to Yu-Na and Mao, but CoP favours quality over quantity.
Yes, Caroline deservedly doesn't get the high GOE on jump elements like Kim, Asada, Rochette, and Kostner do when they are all clean. Zhang's jumps don't have the height, the edge quality, the speed, or difficult transitions into and out of the jumps as those 4 do when they are "on."
I think that if Lepisto had two Lutzes and a Flip, she would fight for the fourth place, maybe bronze medal.
Zhang has a lot of potential, but skating 4 minutes to Ave Maria doesn't help her, considering how slow she is. Ave Maria would be perfect for a SP though.
Maybe next year she will come with a more interesting LP.
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Someone posted a link to a Finnish site which had a video of Laura performing true lutzes, and they were real beauties. I'm not quite sure why she finds them hard to do in competition - perhaps they're relatively new to her and she needs more practice to make them consistent. If she can do a lutz, a flip wouldn't be hard to come by.
I think Lepisto's very expressive and artistic, even more so than Yu-Na. The rest look as if they're performing choreography, whereas what Laura does seems organic. She reminds me very much of Chen Lu.
Where did I ever say that I don't think international judges can screw over another skater using PCS. Do you hear my Patrick Chan complaints, constantly over and over again?
But in the case of Alissa. No, I don't think international judges would have done what the USFSA Judges did. What bugs me about what the USFSA judges did was they gave Alissa way higher PCs than she gets internationally. If Alissa was normally getting Pcs like that, I could have understood what the USFSA judges were doing.
Alissa doesn't get 8 point leads in PCS over Zhang and Flatt internationally. So why are the USFSA Judges doing it? And really while Alissa is prettier to watch she doesn't skate with that much speed etc over Zhang/Flatt.
And the thing though that annoyed me the most was Alissa's lack of difficulty in her long program. Attempting only 4 triples, no 3/3, only two double axels and still can't skate it clean. I actually firmly believe difficult jump layouts need to be rewarded more because cases like Alissa and well Patrick Chan beating Oda in the free skate annoy the heck out of me.
This being said the case of Chan bothers me less because at least he attempts the same difficulty as men like Evan (normally)
Uh, yeah, we all do. Unfortunately.
I wasn't questioning your belief that Alissa was overscored at Nats so as to put her on the World team - have you heard me reiterating my support for that stand?
I brought up Alissa to make the point that if gifting in PCS can occur nationally, so can it internationally, for whatever reasons (reputation, favouritism, etc.). Cases in point: Rochette and Kostner, the latter especially at this most recent Worlds.
You went off on a tangent about Rachael and Caroline's PCS vis-a-vis the top skaters when I have never once mentioned that these two skaters are unfairly marked in PCS.
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OGM: Yun-a
OSM: Joannie
OBM: Mao
U.S. with no one on the podium.
Too early to make predictions? Maybe... but I don't agree with people's "unexpected" factor. Unexpected happened under 6.0, but we've only had one winter Olympics under CoP so far. I'm not sure if you can call the results of '06 unexpected, I mean Sasha usually psyches herself out and blows something, unfortunately. Irina - same thing, she certainly wasn't a lock for gold, she had a history of making just enough mistakes to rob herself of the gold. Arakawa was a bit out of nowhere but who else was really expected to win?
Yun-a towers above everyone else, and she's rock solid. Only way she won't get OGM is either injury, or some crazed korean fan injuring her or freaking her out.
OSM: Joannie
OBM: Mao
U.S. with no one on the podium.
Too early to make predictions? Maybe... but I don't agree with people's "unexpected" factor. Unexpected happened under 6.0, but we've only had one winter Olympics under CoP so far. I'm not sure if you can call the results of '06 unexpected, I mean Sasha usually psyches herself out and blows something, unfortunately. Irina - same thing, she certainly wasn't a lock for gold, she had a history of making just enough mistakes to rob herself of the gold. Arakawa was a bit out of nowhere but who else was really expected to win?
Yun-a towers above everyone else, and she's rock solid. Only way she won't get OGM is either injury, or some crazed korean fan injuring her or freaking her out.
But I never said I couldn't. Nor did I say I want it to happen.
Well I've complained over and over again about Kostner scores to at times. My rant about 2008 Worlds!!!. And I think Kostner should have gotten very lowly scored for Performance/Execution. I also think Laura's PCS were high too.
I'm not naive enough to believe that it can't happen.. .But as for Joannie being overscored and used in the same sentence as Kostner makes me well quite made. Joannie if anything for most of her career has been ridiculous underscored. Maybe she's getting some generous scores now, but not to ridiculous levels. To be frank if Yu-na is getting 76 for her short program, then Joannie did deserve at least a 67 for hers.
Joannie wasn't on my radar before this season because she hadn't achieved anything of note up until then, and what I saw of her before that had left me totally unimpressed. So, I won't comment on her scores before that...on whether she was overscored or underscored or not. Imagine to my surprise, then, when she emerges this season reaping huge scores left and right for what I perceive to be bland programs...bland artistry, bland technical difficulty, bland spins and spirals...and bland everything else. Perhaps it's only me who feels that way, but there was at least one competition she did this season (I'm blanking out on which one it was), in addition to the WTT, that had more than a few wondering how she got such huge PCS for a program that hadn't been well skated.
I'd imagine my beef (and perhaps a few others, too) with Joannie's scores is akin to the variety that you have over Patrick Chan's scores.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Particle Man said:
I think you've got the time of year wrong in your stroll down memory lane.
The proper comparison is the state of the sport in April of 2005, heading into the 2006 Olympic year.
Slutskaya had just completed a season in which she won Cup of China by 23 points, Cup of Russia by 27 points (over Arakawa), and the Grand Prix Final by 20 points (over Arakawa), and her record-tying 6th European championship.
At 2005 Worlds she gave the definitive performance of her career scoring over 130 points in the LP (Arakawa was 9th). For comparison, Yu-na Kim just scored 131 points at 2009 Worlds.
In April of 2005, anyone who thought Irina would have any competition at all at the 2006 Olympics would have been laughed off the stage.
Arakawa? She finished third at Japanese Nationals in 2003, third in 2004, withdrew in 2005, and was third again in 2006.
Stuff happens. 2010 is not 2009.
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I had no beef with Patrick's very high scores at Worlds. When Patrick's technical difficulty completed is around the same as the other men, I've got no issue with Patrick's scores.
In the case of Rochette, I don't think Joannie's scores are ridiculous at all. Joannie has great skating skills, she's what you call a skater's skater. And no Joannie doesn't have a triple axel or a 3flip/3toe that Kim Yu-na does.
But what Rochette does have is a 3/3 sequence and a double axel/double axel sequence which is nothing to sneeze about. Not to mention that Rochette has all the triples with correct entries too.......
When Asada and Kim skate well, Joannie is going to lose to both. If Miki Ando could get some more choregraphy, and/or starting hitting her 3/3 in the short. Joannie will lose to Ando too. But Ando is very inconsistent etc If Kostner could start skating consistently, Joannie might be on the outs as well with Kostner's difficulty.
But the facts are that right now Asada, Ando, and Kostner are a bit all over the place.. Mao's not consistently hitting 2 triple axels a long program, her 3lutz and her 3/3's are MIA. And her program this year was blah. That's whats given Rochette some help. But when Mao skates well she starts beating Joannie again.
In contrast, my beef with Chan is the fact that he's getting huge PCS, huge GOES and getting away with technical difficulty that is way less difficult than not just a couple of the men. But essentially all of the men. When Patrick skates well and lands his 3 axels, I've got no beef with him beating a quadless Oda or Kozuka.
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- Jun 27, 2003
yeah, what MM said...
and while the men's champion might have been expected... no one really knew what the others would do... there were some impressive showings during the LP... some major comebacks... and some majorly disappointing fails.
and while the men's champion might have been expected... no one really knew what the others would do... there were some impressive showings during the LP... some major comebacks... and some majorly disappointing fails.
I think you've got the time of year wrong in your stroll down memory lane.
The proper comparison is the state of the sport in April of 2005, heading into the 2006 Olympic year.
Slutskaya had just completed a season in which she won Cup of China by 23 points, Cup of Russia by 27 points (over Arakawa), and the Grand Prix Final by 20 points (over Arakawa), and her record-tying 6th European championship.
At 2005 Worlds she gave the definitive performance of her career scoring over 130 points in the LP (Arakawa was 9th). For comparison, Yu-na Kim just scored 131 points at 2009 Worlds.
In April of 2005, anyone who thought Irina would have any competition at all at the 2006 Olympics would have been laughed off the stage.
Arakawa? She finished third at Japanese Nationals in 2003, third in 2004, withdrew in 2005, and was third again in 2006.
Stuff happens. 2010 is not 2009.
Irina imploded in 2006. Period. If Irina had skated like she skated in 2005, in 2006. Irina would have won. But Irina didn't do this. I think that with Irina people had felt after 2005 worlds that Irina finally had learned how to compete and lay things down......We were wrong. The sad thing about Irina's skate and it was similar in 2002, was that it was safe. Irina only attempted six triple jumps and no 3/3s like she attempted at Worlds.
The difference between Irina and Yu-na is well I really don't see Yu-na going out there and not even bothering to attempt a 3flip/3toe or her double axel/3toe. Yu-na could mess up, she has in the past but I think Yu-na and Mao will at least go for it.
As for Arakawa, she had some issues in 2005 and in 2006. She had downgrades on her 3/3's with the new system. Injuries in 2005, and a coach that was giving her jammed packed choregraphy etc. In 2006, you could see improvement and she was averaging 5 triples in her longs, but got stuck with some hard competitions. As for placing 3rd at Japanese Nationals well some of that one as political (Fumie had to win, in order to mathematically make the team) Then add in Mao with no pressure on her etc... It's not like Mao didn't beat Sasha and Irina earlier too. :lol:
What happened with Arakawa was the switch to Morozov who gave her a long that was easier. And also the fact that she didn't even attempt her 3/3's although they were looking good. Arakawa essentially went out there and performed a program with 5 clean triples.. And Irina/Sasha imploded. Arakawa's ability to calmly land 5 triples under pressure shouldn't have been doubted. She was a world champ and doing it all season long in 2006. And Arakawa was still a recent world champ...
The idea that Irina/Sasha might have meltdown shouldn't have been that surprising either. I mean Irina threw away the gold in 2002.
But really Arakawa had a bad season in 2005, that doesn't mean she should have been counted out.
To me Yu-na is most certainly not a shoe in.....
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- Jun 21, 2003
But they both would have excelled under ordinal judging, too.
I think the skaters that benefit most from the CoP are skaters like Buttle and Chan, who can pick up enough points here and there to offset the quad guys, and also skakers like Sasha Cohen who also could score like crazy under a system that does not penalize falls and stumbles very much.
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- Jun 27, 2003
...or (especially in the case of Buttle) rotate four times and fall on their butt and get credit for a quad.
I think you've got the time of year wrong in your stroll down memory lane.
The proper comparison is the state of the sport in April of 2005, heading into the 2006 Olympic year.
Slutskaya had just completed a season in which she won Cup of China by 23 points, Cup of Russia by 27 points (over Arakawa), and the Grand Prix Final by 20 points (over Arakawa), and her record-tying 6th European championship.
At 2005 Worlds she gave the definitive performance of her career scoring over 130 points in the LP (Arakawa was 9th). For comparison, Yu-na Kim just scored 131 points at 2009 Worlds.
In April of 2005, anyone who thought Irina would have any competition at all at the 2006 Olympics would have been laughed off the stage.
Arakawa? She finished third at Japanese Nationals in 2003, third in 2004, withdrew in 2005, and was third again in 2006.
Stuff happens. 2010 is not 2009.
Best post in the thread. ITA.
I myself made the mistake of being a vocal part of the "Give Irina the Gold already and don't even bother to hold the competition" crowd. Now, it's easy to do the same for Yu Na. Give her the gold already, she's got no competition, etc.
But there's a major difference this time around. Slutskaya wasn't getting 15-20 point leads in the SHORT program. Her strength was outperforming everyone by a mile in the FREESKATE. So, in this case, Yu Na seems extra invincible. But MM said it right...this is 2009. The Olympics happen in 2010. Completely different year. Completely different circumstances. The Skate Gods are listening to/reading every word said on the forums looking for a way to surprise the masses. Who'd have thought Mao Asada would finish OFF THE PODIUM at WORLDS??
