Last year Lysacek got 3rd and 2nd in his two events and didn't make the finals. Joubert got 4th in France and 1st in Russia. In the finals he withdrew after the short.
Chan did get 30 points, but then finished dead last in the finals.
I think it's all up for grabs -- especially since the skaters will be looking past the Grand Prix to the Olympics, trying to hit their stride at the right time of year.