- She proved through previous competitions in the season that she isn't having serious problems with injuries or any other problems from being gone so long. This isn't incredibly likely as she may only get Skate America, so she might not have much chance to prove herself prior to Nationals, but we'll see what GPs she gets assigned and what she actually attends
- She is close to a tie with some other skater for 2nd place after the FS, and on the lower end of the probable scoring result, given a "fair" result (if anyone can even figure out what that is under CoP.)
Both of those things occurring isn't THAT likely... anyway, I don't think it's fair to assume judging impropriety before it happens. If it happens, scream about it, otherwise just focus on the positives...
That 3T-2A is a little tricky. It would have to be a sequence, so it would lose some of its value there. Plus, if Sasha missed it by taking an extra step, that would cost her a jumping pass, while if she missed the second jump altogether then she hasn't done an Axel.
Both Miki and Kim... [OT, if your name were Miki Kim, it would be a palindrome -- the same read backward or forward]...both Ando and Kim did it the other way around, 2A+3T combo, but this would be almost as hard as a triple-triple.
None the less, it is perhaps fair to mention that Elaine Zayak did 2A3T fairly routinely. So did Katarina Witt, for that matter. And a lot of the ladies back in that day did 2L3t, 2F3T and/or 2Lz3T in order to meet the SP requirements with the toughest combo they could do, based on the requirement that one of the jumps had to be the double required for the given year.
All this talk of jumps & sequences, in particular the 2A-3T combo, has gotten me excited about the upcoming season, lol! Also, it brought back one of my all-time favorite programs from one of my all-time favorite skaters (i.e. Sarah Hughes) ~ at the 2002 GPF she completed her twelfth 7-triple program in her career, which included a gorgeous 2A-3T sequence at the very beginning. In fact her jump layout was the following:
spiral-into 3turns-into 3R
I recall that season very well, as it reminded me of Mao Asada this season, both experimenting with various jumps/jump combinations/sequences/et al while working up to that perfect program, which of course in Sarah's case just so happened to culminate at the Olympics ~ her FS marking the thirteenth time in her career that she landed 7 triples, with the highlight being the first time she ever landed *two* 3/3combos. in the FS!
I have high hopes for all the skaters to achieve a personal best this upcoming season, something they've been working on & working on & finally succeeding in, whether it be at a GP event, Nationals, Worlds, or Olympics. Be it two quads in the FS for the men, or two triple axels in the FS for the ladies, or finally completing a clean performance in both the SP & LP for all the disciplines. But to see a f-i-r-s-t happen for a skater(s) is something very very special; brings back wonderful memories of Tonya Harding landing her first 3A at 1991 Nationals and of course Sarah Hughes landing two 3/3 combos. for the first time ever at the 2002 Olympics. Also, ladies 2008 U.S. Nationals FS was absolutely spectacular, right up there with the other two in my memory ~ it just got better & better, each lady stepped up to the plate & landed 7 triples (3/3 combos. included!), what a night, what a night!!!!
Not being very familiar with all of Sasha's skates from previous years, I wish a diehard fan of hers could list how many times she landed 6 triples? I know she routinely landed 5 triples, but I don't think she ever landed 7? But, what I do recall is a fantastically gorgeous 3/3 sequence she landed long ago, which had me searching on www.youtube.com for it ~ the 3T-1/2R-3S sequence:
EDITED TO ADD: I also just read recently that Emily Hughes will be taking a year off from Harvard to concentrate on the upcoming season. I'm very happy for her, as I've always loved her skating, but more than all else she makes me smile ~ she has the kind of aura that attracts people ~ I'm drawn to her because of her positive attitude, she just exudes a bright lovely light, like a moth to a flame.
Last edited by Nadine; 05-12-2009 at 09:24 PM. Reason: added info. about Emily Hughes
Interesting to note that according to Hersh, supposedly USFSA has extended an invite to SA to Michelle...Sasha has said if invited she would accept.
Assume the above is her actual jump layout. Now, given her history of freeskate performances, she most likely won't complete everything. So suppose she fails on the jumps marked above with a Red X, making it a typical Cohen performance. Assume one or both are falls, meaning she does not complete the combo. You may also assume that she fully rotates all triples. Now, speculators, tell me- do you think will she be still in contention?
Then move the red X's around and figure out the two jumps she could afford to flub and lose the minimum amount of points.
Last edited by R.D.; 05-12-2009 at 10:50 PM.
I'm not that deep into the actual points for each elements... but I will say that we have seen people like Mao WIN competitions even with ghastly falls. CoP is really a better system for Sasha than 6.0 was, that's another reason it's a shame she left for so long. A clean skate mattered under 6.0. Under CoP, a clean skate is only incidental - it's really about the total points you can rack up. I am certain that Sasha has the ability to get the highest levels on almost everything, that's gonna be more of a boost than some people realize. Of course that assumes her choreographer and coach for the season know what they are doing and plan the program properly to get her those levels, if they don't she will be in trouble. But I have heard (before we even knew for sure she was coming back) that she was seen poring over CoP handbooks on the SoI bus.
She still needs a strong jump repertoire, but one fall isn't going to be the death of her. Even with 2 falls, she could theoretically still have a chance against a clean Rachael or Caroline, depending on everything else in their programs (including edges.) But win or lose, I'm DYING to see her new programs.
With two falls, OGM or any OM would be a long shot, but she can still contend with the American girls. And for the record, ur was never an issue for Sasha. It was the landing that always gave her trouble, but otherwise, she had great technique except for flutzing.
That being said, however, I agree that Sasha still has a chance against clean Rachael and clean Caroline if she falls once. Twice, I'm not sure....
Lol, I'm exhausted from watching so many programs over on www.youtube.com tonight, but finally found what I was looking for ~ a p-e-r-f-e-c-t 7-triple performance from Sasha Cohen at 2004 Marshalls!
So I answered my own question - yes, Sasha has skated a perfect 7-triple performance program before - she's done it before & can definitely do it again (ala Steve Prefontaine "to give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift" ).
Odd, I don't recall this particular competition, though I do recall the Swan Lake program, which kept changing & changing. I can't say I'm a particular fan of the program, but the elements were the best I've ever seen from Sasha, fabulous! The split jump she does in the program was my fav back then (was so disappointed when she only performed it for one season, would love for her to bring it back, reminds me of Baryshnikov), also the ending scratch spin with the unique positions of the arms was my all-time favorite spin from her (to this day I have never seen another skater do that particular spin ever, what a joy to see it again; my second favorite spin of hers was the headless one, which once again she only performed a few times, reminiscent of Denise Biellmann at her best).
Sasha Cohen is the only skater I can see defeating those with 3/3 combos. & possibly 3 axel(s), as she did at 2004 Marshalls, having defeated a 7-triple program (including one 3/3 combo.) from Shizuka Arakawa, but she too must be perfect. In fact, it is my belief that if everybody skates their best, she will win.
Nessun dorma! Nessun dorma!
Tu pure, o, Principessa,
nella tua fredda stanza,
guardi le stelle
che tremano d'amore
e di speranza.
Ma il mio mistero è chiuso in me,
il nome mio nessun saprà!
No, no, sulla tua bocca lo dirò
quando la luce splenderà!
Ed il mio bacio scioglierà il silenzio
che ti fa mia!
(Il nome suo nessun saprà!...
e noi dovrem, ahime, morir!)
Dilegua, o notte!
English Translation of "Nessun Dorma"
Nobody shall sleep!...
Nobody shall sleep!
Even you, o Princess,
in your cold room,
watch the stars,
that tremble with love and with hope.
But my secret is hidden within me,
my name no one shall know...
On your mouth I will tell it when the light shines.
And my kiss will dissolve the silence that makes you mine!...
(No one will know his name and we must, alas, die.)
Vanish, o night!
Set, stars! Set, stars!
At dawn, I will win! I will win! I will win!
I love Sasha-but I think if everyone skates their best Yu-na will win and Sasha may possibly eke out a bronze. I think Mao would win silver. Joannie definitely might be a factor too imo. I don't care for her style but she's got the jumps, and terrific everything else.
I can't tell how many triple jumps she's pulling off because the quality is so poor but I found this on daily motion-I've never seen Sasha do so many combos-especially fairly well into the program:
2003? Worlds Qualifying - Rachmaninoff
Sasha's 2004 Marshalls Swan Lake was a lovely program, but Marshalls was a low-pressure cheesefest. Since Sasha is aiming for the Olympics--the biggest event of the year--I don't think Sasha's performance at 2004 Marshalls is necessarily the best indicator of how Sasha will perfom at the high-pressure Olympics, or even US Nationals. I say this because it is very obvious that Sasha can do the jumps, but it's the mistakes she when's she under pressure or competition nerves that cost her.
Has Sasha skated a clean LP at an actual ISU competition, even a GP one?