Honestly I think at the moment, with the break frmo competitive skating. Even if she gets all of her triples back, the best maxed out jump performance we will see from Sasha is a 6 triple program.
For me, this is why I'm not a big fan of COP. Forget the cookie cutter spirals everyone does, and repetitive spins and FW that doesn't go with the music. Seems like often times the sum of the whole is greater than the parts. Sasha does bring a great quality to COP in trying to maintain the artistic integrity of the performance. IMO, so does Yu-Na and as of late Joannie. I think Mao has the potential, but is so overwhelmed by the jump layout TAT gives her, the artistic part is more subtle. In the US, Mirai and Caroline approach that aspect. I like Rachel, she probably is technically one of the strongest, soundest skaters we've ever had, but I find her kinda bland.CoP is really a better system for Sasha than 6.0 was, that's another reason it's a shame she left for so long. A clean skate mattered under 6.0. Under CoP, a clean skate is only incidental - it's really about the total points you can rack up. I am certain that Sasha has the ability to get the highest levels on almost everything, that's gonna be more of a boost than some people realize. Of course that assumes her choreographer and coach for the season know what they are doing and plan the program properly to get her those levels, if they don't she will be in trouble. But I have heard (before we even knew for sure she was coming back) that she was seen poring over CoP handbooks on the SoI bus.
Going based on Alissa's marks at Nationals, Sasha can DEFINITELY can afford 2 falls in the LP if attempting 7 triples. Granted, Alissa had enough of a lead after the SP, but I can see same trend happening with Sasha in 2010. If Rachel, Ashley, Caroline and/or Mirai get consistent in rotating their 3/3's and are able to deliver clean SP's, things might be much closer heading into the LP, and then who knows what'll happen. That scenario could very well play out at 2010 Nationals, either way (based on if Sasha attempts same jump layout as Alissa.)She still needs a strong jump repertoire, but one fall isn't going to be the death of her. Even with 2 falls, she could theoretically still have a chance against a clean Rachael or Caroline, depending on everything else in their programs (including edges.) But win or lose, I'm DYING to see her new programs.
I'm eager to see what Sasha can do. I believe Sasha would not be attempting a comeback unless she is very close to what she was doing in 2006, flutz and all. Eliminating a spin might cost her a few points since that is her strength, and she'll have to either re-work her sequence, or include a 3/3 or 2a/3 in order to have 7 triples (going based on 2006 of course).
Definitely hard to predict how Sasha will do until we see her, but if we go based on her 2006 performances at TEB and Olympics, she should be in the mix. Her marks: SP-60.95 and 66.73 sound right at the top for any non-3/3 short program. But I think those same LPs will go down at least 3-5 points each under new rules-"e", UR and minus one spin-she had gotten a 114.16 and 116.73 with 1 fall in each (although based on rules, she should've gotten 2 falls at the Olympics.) But, as you said PM, Sasha has been studying so her programs most likely would be more up to the new code. And the new rule for applying "e/!" after the judges enter their marks bodes well for Sasha. She needs to rework the jumps though. Out of 20 jump attempts between TEB and Olympics, 11 received -GOEs and 5 received 0 GOE's, so she definitely has lots of room to improve and points to pick up here.
Last edited by MKFSfan; 05-13-2009 at 08:49 AM.
jump base values at Worlds
(credit for the second half of the program)
2A+3T 7.50 (8.25)
3Lz 6.00 (6.60)
3S 4.50 (4.95)
2A 3.50 (3.85)
3L 5.00 (5.50)
3F+2L 7.00 (7.70)
3S 4.50 (4.95)
How is Sasha's jump layout (and base value) exactly going to be?
Last edited by szidon; 05-16-2009 at 08:09 AM.
So much talk of Sasha needing 7 - triples and not making any mistakes. Is that why Sasha is such an intriguing if not beloved skater?
And FYI, Yuna and Mao are not typically landing 7 triples or even attempting that many. Check Worlds...I think Mao completed 4 triples and Yuna 5.
If Caroline had been at Worlds she would have probably completed more triples than any other lady with the possible exception of Rachael. Completing 7 triples is no guarantee of a win unless the other elements are at a high level.
Sasha should do OK as her spirals, laybacks and spins are better than either Yuna or Mao. And even on a bad day Sasha was always good for 4-5 triples.
The question I wonder about is in the attempt to rack up points will Sasha lose some of the originality she brought to the ice. People rave about Yuna and Mao but they both look over programmed to me and it is obvious neither of them has had much serious dance training. So skating is more than dancing abilty but for me I would rather watch Sasha and Caroline anytime. The sublte refinement they bring is so beautiful to watch.
As for whether Yu-Na and Mao look "over-programmed," I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on that.
I enjoy reading the comments of janetfan & evangeline, as they were a catalyst for what has been lurking in the back of my mind since viewing the one competition wherein Mao beat Sasha at TEB (which I had never seen before btw, but made sure to search out & watch the other day after having read about this competition a few days ago).
In the SP Mao beat Sasha by 3 points with a 3/3 combo., both having skated cleanly without faults. And in the LP she beat her by 4 points, with both having landed 6 triples apiece (Mao with the extra edge having landed a gorgeous 3A). However, each had a slight fault - Mao a fallout on one of her spins, Sasha a fall on one of her triples. Sasha's PCS kept her up there in the mix, whereas Mao's TES is her ace. Each played to their individual strengths, understandably.
***Note: it has been my viewing experience over the years that judging at GPs has no relation to judging at Worlds & Olympics. It's more of a guideline than a rule, so anything can happen.***
I love watching both of these skaters ~ they have everything I look for in a skater ~ may the best lady win!
That said, Sasha is the underdog & will need to enchant the judges with what janetfan referred to ~ her phenomenal artistic ability ~ if she can bring to the plate a once-in-a-lifetime program with what makes her special, she'll hit a homerun!
OT: humility & joy are two qualities that I personally look for in a skate & skater as well ~ Chen Lu's 1998 Olympic LP performance to "Butterfly Lovers" is one of my all-time favorite performances ever. If it had been up to me, I would have given her the gold medal. That performance is one for the ages...
3F+2T 6.8 (7.48)
3T+3S seq 6.8 (7.48)
2A 3.5 (3.85)
3S 4.5 (4.95)
Total 38.1 (40.56)
So 40.56 compared to 45.45, 47.65, and 44.49 for the top three (not counting Ando and Kostner.)
Plus, she will have a jump deficit coming from the short program compared to anyone who does a triple-triole or a triple Axel.
Possibly Sasha can beef up her jumps, but adding a Lutz combination is risky because of the possibity of an edge call.
On GOEs, at the Olympics Sasha did not get any possitive GOES on jumps, and only slightly positive GOEs on spins (0.36, 0.71, and 0.29.) The only place where she made up any ground was on her spiral, +2 GOE.
As for program components, under the new system it is not so much about beautiful poses and passionate musical interpretation any more. I do not think that Sasha will have an advantage over either Asada or Kim in any program component category.
In Sasha's silver medal performance at the Olympics, which most people agree was among her best in terms of the "second mark," she got high 7's across the board, for a total of 62.41.
That is about what Mao got (62.88) for her fourth place finish at Worlds -- and Mao is capable of much higher for a better outing. Yu-na Kim's PCSs were all in the eights for a total of 68!
Last edited by Mathman; 05-16-2009 at 05:30 PM.
Sasha has had her moments on the ice. Her 180 dgree spiral was always a big hit, and her layback spin was among the best. I think both these moves will hold up in 2009 GPs. I am not not sure about her speed and jumps which is why I am willing to wait and see. There are others, if they hit, will dominate with their speed and jumps and excellent choreography as well - not the sugary kind.
This really feels like a year when our ladies could have used three spots.
I feel like you - in that I have no idea how Sasha will do. But I also know that realistically our young skaters are not ready for an Olympic podium. Caroline and Rachael have a shot but that would mean injuries or terrible meltdowns from a couple of the top ranked ladies. I always love Alissa's skating but let's face it......Olympic pressure might be hard for her to deal with and even with a clean skate she would not finish higher than 6 or 7 in Vancouver.
Then we have Mirai...who I really like. We dont know how she will be coming off the injury and growth spurt. But she has the potential to come in 1 or 2 at Natls. Right now Mirai feels like the wild card heading into natls. Ashley.....without major improvement I dont think she can win US Nationals let alone look at a top finish in Vancouver.
Kimmie and Emily.......what nice, likeable girls they are. They are longshots to come in 1 or 2 at Natls. but would be lucky to finish in top 10 at Vancouver.
Thus we arrive back at Sasha. I honestly don't know if she can win a medal in Vancouver but think she offers our best chance for a top finish.And even if you are not a fan....she is better known than the rest of our ladies put together. She has charisma and an edge and right now skating in USA can use the type of boost Sasha can provide.
If i was dismissive of anybodies favorite I apologize in advance. These were just my thoughts at the moment and I have been known to be wrong...
Last edited by janetfan; 05-16-2009 at 08:24 PM.
This is still all so far away but.....
If Sasha can get a 4th place at the Olys and Rachael or Caroline can nab a 9th place, that would total up to 13. I don't know if the ISU would allow 3 skters for the 2010 Worlds based on an Oly result. Anyone?
And I feel strongly that Caroline or Rachael could do better than 9th based on some of their results at Intl competitions last year.
I am not a big Rachael fan but have a lot of respect for her abilty to compete.
I think Caroline is one of the three most distinctive and beautiful skaters in the world......along with Yuna and Mao. (hmmm, i already forgot Sasha!)