Is that a wish or a fact? I really want to know their conditions right now.Originally Posted by hongligl
Shen/Zhao are back and better!
Is that a wish or a fact? I really want to know their conditions right now.Shen/Zhao are back and better!
I would say it is more of a fact. Their names are listed on GP events, and they have not been listed since they retired. the Chinese are not the most open country, so i could understand Shen and Zhao planning a return and the west not even hearing about it.
Yes, me too. I would love Stephane to come back. I would take him in a heartbeat no matter what rules there are.
Good point. OK, lets figure it out. Let's still assume Rachael and Caroline are the only U.S. ladies in the GP Final. Then come January, the National results look like this.
Sasha ...... ( 179.54 ) .... gold
Mirai ......... ( 179.23 ) .... silver
Rachael ... ( 162.39 ) .... 6th
Caroline ... ( 157.86 ) .... 9th
Here Rachael and Caroline show poor consistency, and the USFSA can't be sure they will hold up in Vancouver. So Sasha and Mirai are on the Olympic team, and I couldn't put up much of an argument.
However, let's say National results are like this.
Sasha ....... ( 179.54 ) .... gold
Mirai .......... ( 179.23 ) .... silver
Caroline .... ( 178.67 ) .... bronze
Rachael .... ( 178.04 ) .... pewter
Here, the top 4 ladies are separated by a whopping point and a half. The USFSA can't draw any conclusion about who really skated the best. Another panel of judges, viewing from a different angle, would have produced a different result. Since Nationals don't tell the USFSA who the best 2 ladies are, they have to fall back on the 2nd most important event - the GP Final. Rachael and Caroline then get sent to Vancouver.
Let me know if this sounds unreasonable.
I think the previous poster was asking about the "better" part.
I've seen S/Z at SOI the past two years but it was hard to tell. They looked better this year than the year before but it could have been because their number was so much better than last year's.
I always tell my husband, "We're going to see the King and Queen of the Universe" (my nickname for S/Z - not sure he appreciates it) and this year it was at least understandable - they were in sparkly white and their program was regal. (Last year: horrible fright wigs.) They did one big trick (sorry, I forget what it was) but otherwise it wasn't too demanding. Better? I dunno, but they sure looked to be in condition.
That is a fact. I was blessed to have seen them working on their programs. It was so hard to keep it to myself as they asked to keep it secret at that time. I'm so happy now it's official!!! They are not just back, they are better! Believe it or not, they're even technically stronger! They can do both 2A-2A and 3T-3T sequences now and any of these would have a higher base jump base value than 2007 when they left with Gold for every single competition they entered, literally a sweep of Gold for 2007. On top of that, they worked on every single aspect of skating with specialists and worked meticulously with their choreographer to the nuance of each note. I'm just over the moon now. This season is going to be really exciting!
Go Shen/Zhao!!!
Only because Nationals is the principal criterion. Scenario 2 is a lot more probable and if that happens I think Sasha and Mirai will go.
If they were to count GPF, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't take into account whom the girls competed against. You don't make the podium at the Olympics by beating Tugba or, probably, even Elene G, you do it by beating Mao, Yu Na and Joannie. Maybe Sasha and Carolina and that Skater X that Mathman likes to allude to, who is barely in our peripheral vision yet. (My thought: Leonova.) That would be an argument for sending Caroline instead of Mirai - if she'd have beaten one of the big girls to get to GPF.
Last edited by Spun Silver; 05-31-2009 at 10:41 PM. Reason: Oops - Mirai, not Rachael.
What wonderful news! Thanks so much for sharing this! How amazing!
This must be very inspiring for Sasha, too. They would have set a wonderful example for her while they were touring together.
That's what I haven't figured out yet. Will the USFSA consider the dragons that had to be slain to get to the GP Final? If Rachael beats Yu-Na, and Caroline beats Mao, to get to the Final, will that be considered? Or will it be only the Final results that matter?
If it's a tight race at Nationals, could the judges give certain girls a boost? ( Did Rachael underrotate that jump by 93 degrees? No, it looked more like 87 degrees. Let's give her full credit since she made the Grand Prix Final. )
It's the same situation with the men. There is a good chance the results at Nationals will be different from the Grand Prix. It will be a long, hot summer.
I see Rachael finishing either 2nd or 3rd at Nats and medalling at her Grand Prix events, maybe making the GPF. I don't have a crystal ball, but I think she'll go to Vancouver.
wow, that sounds great, how they managed to keep it secret?dymamics has changed now for pairs!They can do both 2A-2A and 3T-3T sequences now and any of these would have a higher base jump base value than 2007 when they left with Gold for every single competition they entered, literally a sweep of Gold for 2007.
There is something going on with crystal balls on the forum, there must be a secret place they are provided..
Antmab has one, maybe he can give it to you. It doesnt work well though so maybe it will send Rachel back in Torino.
Well, Caroline won't make it to GPF, so all this is moot. TEB against Mao, Yu-na, Yukari, and Sasha! And Kostner! Are you kidding me?! Mao and Yu-na have consistently beaten her out when she skates clean 7-triple programs and they make glaring mistakes, so unless they withdraw, I don't see *any* chance of Caroline placing higher than bronze (remember Mao vs. Caroline at TEB last year?). Yukari must be trained and hungry after missing World's this year, Kostner is always dangerous, and Sasha will probably beat out Caroline if the former lands 5 clean triples and the latter 7, just based on PCS differences. Caroline would have to *win* SC to have any chance, and that's basically impossible given Joannie Rochette's home ice advantage (not to mention there's also Sasha, Mirai, and Alissa there; while her head-to-head chance against each is not too bad, the chance of none of them having a spectacular outing is small).
I think at this point, it'd be easier for Caroline to aim for a win at National's than qualifying for GPF (though she definitely shouldn't blow off the GP season either; she should at least put up respectable scores if not placements), and I don't hold high hopes of that either given her past experiences at National's...
Oh Feraina, you make me sad, really sad...
Me too, but it's probably true. Our girl is screwed. Once again.Oh Feraina, you make me sad, really sad...
The question is what we think the USFSA would do in these two scenarios, right? Not what we think they ought to do or what seems most sensible to us?
I think the 88-year-old traditions of the USFSA, and in particular the mind-set left over from the days of ordinal judging, will carry more weight than adding up tenths and hundredths of a point. I think the two scenarios will be treated the same. Somebody won, somebody lost. Sasha absolutely goes no matter what.
It's the same principle that they use to determine who goes to the Grand Prix final in the first place. Who won, who lost. Points are used only as the second tie-breaker.
Could Rachael or Caroline bump Mirai? I agree with the posters who think this could happen only if one of them not only made the Grand Prix final but actually beat some of the top skaters there.
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