Prediction: Her earned PCSs in the short program will carry over and her mistakes in the long will not be magnified and she'll hold onto third.
Since reputation is still paramount in figure skating, she'll need be 3rd or 4th here to squeeze into the B group (Rochette, Ando, Nakano). Otherwise she might get stuck in the C group (too many names to list).
If she splats in the short, then she'll end up 5th or lower.
Cohen hasn't competed recently. it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict where she will end up. The 2006 results (including how she performed SPs and LPs typically) are now completely irrelevant.
After the SP, she could be anywhere from 2nd to 7th. (Unless YuNa withdraws I seriously don't see her in 1st) The FS is anyone's guess.
But honestly, I think the most likely outcome for Cohen is WD.
Sasha's SPs have always been special and very often have her in 1st place even in Calgary Worlds, but she makes foolish mistakes in the LPs to drag her out of a gold medal. It's almost a given.
If Sasha wins or places second in TEB, it will be the biggest upset in the history of the GPs, and it is only one event.
Problem is no one has actually seen her skate competitively. I hoping someone who lives near Arrowhead stops by and takes a peek as her practices and reports without any pro or anti bias.
Sure, why not.
While S/S don't really need to be explained, I think the fact that D/D have had a massive headstart on their long program combined with M/T generally having difficulty with the long is the reason I'm going with these placements.
Hopes: That D/D really do well. They show us that they can add the technical difficulty they'll need to do well this upcoming season and that keeping their long wasn't a mistake. Also that Bonheur and James do well (are they eligible to compete at the Olympics? Does she have French citizenship?)
I'm curious if Samuelson/Bates can make a charge for third, or if their ascension will be post Olympics.
Hopes: That Pechalat/Bourzat come up with a routine I like. I loathed their circus free dance last year to the point where I'm pretty sure I underrated the skating. I just didn't get it. Also, that the Hubbells bring it.
1. Brian Joubert
2. Tomas Verner
3. Nobunari Oda
You know, for all the focus on the women's, I think this is an equally challenging field. While I think if Joubert/Verner/Oda skate their best they'll be the podium, I think Rippon, Preaubert, and Ponsero are virtually tied (their personal bests last season come within three points of each other), with Voronov and Chipeur within striking distance if/when one falters. I'm ranking Joubert first simply because I think he feels he has something to prove after Worlds.
Hopes: That Chipeur brings it. That second slot in Canadian men's seems to be wide open and of the contenders, I'm rooting for him the most. Also that Rippon has a good senior grand prix debut.
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Yukari Nakano
Kim and Asada are one-two for obvious reasons (at this early point, knowing absolutely nothing about their programs/health etc). Nakano's just a gut feeling. I don't think Kostner will be able to overcome her issues quickly enough to challenge for a medal in this field; Cohen's been away for so long that I can't imagine her being hugely successful... so it's between Nakano and Zhang, and I think the former will do it.
Hopes: That Asada and Kim tie. Could you imagine the reaction from their fanbases if that happened?
The thing I noticed about Samuelson and Bates, is that he has stepped up his game and has taken charge of the team. I know some people think because of Women's Lib that the female could also take the lead in a dance couple, I take the view that the Follow in dance is equally important. Ginger Rogers did everything Fred Astaire did and she did it backwards and in heels. He would not have looked as good if she was not capable of that.
IMO, nothing worse than Barbara FP pushing Masimo around except for comedy.
ImaginaryPogue, wow! I don't know if I'm brave enough to predict TEB in such detail . A belated welcome to GS, I'm sure by now you've been told to post often, post long?
Let's see how much of last year's TEB prediction I can recycle; here's what I wrote last November:
Could happen. You know what? I'll stick with this one, even with Yu-Na skating in Paris this time.2. Mao will win the ladies, for every obvious reason you can think of.
Hard to say if they'll do the same EX again. They're already on record as saying they will not do it as their OD; they're threatening to have music that's never been used in ice dance.3. John Kerr will look good in his kilt (in the EX).
This is always true!4. People will take issue with the PCS of whatever skater they happen to dislike as being too high, and the PCS for their favorite being too low.
Well, obviously with the quality and depth of the field this year, there are fewer sure things. I will make one prediction: Brian Joubert will not do a 1T as his SP "combination" this time.I consider these four predictions the safest possible bets for TEB, unless John and Sinead do a different exhibition number.
I'm seriously considering going this year, BTW. I am currently in search of a victim who might consider giving up a few vacation days to go to Paris with me .
1. Nobunari Oda (given he's comfy with his new 4T+3T friend by the time)
2. Brian Joubert (see NB)
3. Tomas Verner
NB: There's a chance for Joubert to WD, if he bombs in September's Masters, i.e. loses to Ponsero, Preaubert and Amodio and needs more time to work on his fancy free program and costume. But he'll be OK toward the end of the season.
wear his SP outfit if you do that .
I really want to come to TEB, but don't want to go on my own to Paris and so far have had no luck finding friends who can afford the trip and are able to take the time off. I'm still working on it.