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Thread: Cup of China - Analysis

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Cup of China - Analysis

    Ladies

    This is Joannie's second win but will she?

    There is a question of the podium when one considers, in addition to Joannie, there is Kiira, Carolina, Fumie, Akiko, Rachael, and Mirai. as top contenders. Remember it's all about winning gold and silver and possibly bronze. It counts equally with TEB and the other 5 GPs. Don't underestimate it.

    I would think this is joannie's ticket to the Finals. She is one of the top contenders in Ladies FS today. The other Ladies I listed, imo, are not to be snuffed at. I particularly like Rachael, Akiko and Mirai, and am anxiously waiting to see some sort of competitiveness in this GP. It should be worth watching without the priviledged, but for those who earned it to be here.

    The Gentlemen

    This seems to be Evan's event unless he melts. He is not the best at GPs.

    The Field, however, has a number of interesting wannabees; Voronov, Constesti, Ponsero, Ten, and Oda. Which two will rise to the occasion is a wait and see. They all compete either in a badly or in a winning mode. Watch this one as a real tough prediction to make.

    The Pairs

    Well, welcome back to the priviledge ones. No doubt they have kept in shape and are out to be be better than their country team mates. Pang and Tong are not the TBA. Evora and Ladwiq do not get two GPs, probably for the Common Sense factor. Meagan and Craig have an uphill battle. Others are worth a watch as I found them entertaining.

    Ice Dance

    Obviously Belbin and Agosto will try to top Khokhlova and Novitski. Why not? Will Chock and Zerlein blow every ones mind in Seniors? My own pick would be Weaver and Poje but that's not going to happen. I also like that Ukrainian team of the lady with the long name and Sergei. Watch it. Ice Dance does show skating at its best. No barrel jumping quads. Just blade to ice.

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    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    My only opinion is that Rachael has a real shot at gold - it all depends on Joannie.

    I'll be biting my nails for "the priviledge ones" (who have earned every privilege they ever got, as far as I know). (However, if we're going to award them fancy titles, let's go with King & Queen of the Universe. )

    After last season, I'm not even going to speculate about Mirai. Like about a million other people, I feel very maternal toward her and want her to win everything, but I'll be very surprised if this is the year, and I'd just as soon she get to skate with low expectations. Which I think she will!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    The Gentlemen

    This seems to be Evan's event unless he melts. He is not the best at GPs.

    The Field, however, has a number of interesting wannabees; Voronov, Constesti, Ponsero, Ten, and Oda. Which two will rise to the occasion is a wait and see. They all compete either in a badly or in a winning mode. Watch this one as a real tough prediction to make.
    In TEB thread, several posters predicted Oda will win against Joubert. How come here, Oda is going to be against Lysacek, but Lysacek is said to be a clear winner? Oda with a quad, if he can count his jumps correctly, Lysacek will have no way of catching up. Go Oda!!!

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    I think the fact that Carolina Kostner is not a seeded skater makes the GP series more interesting. I don't really expect her to have a meltdown like she had at worlds. Although she's not that consistent she still has the ability to win here. I definitely think that it'll be a great fight between Carolina and Joannie. Hopefully Rachael, Mirai and Akiko can be a factor too.

    As for men and ice dance, it won't be a good thing if Lysacek, Belbin/Agosto don't win here. Though, I'd love to see Ten or Contesti step up and give Lysacek a good fight. Belbin/Agosto surely should win here but you never know with K/N. They had a really good GP series last season. We could argue that they got more support from their fed with D/S not at the top of their games. But they certainly have the goods to be up there if B/A have trouble. I'd love W/P to sneak in for the bronze, I know that's highly unlikely but I find them pretty underrated. I don't C/Z are up par with the senior couples yet. I don't think their presentation is balanced enough. Yet they're technically very good which could lead them to a bronze here.

    No comment on pairs. not yet.

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    Yeah! Lets get this party started. enlight78's Avatar
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    Evan is definitly not the clear favorite. Oda and Contesti could beat just a slightly sub par Evan. If Ponsero skates to his potential. Evan could find himself off the podium with a score as high as 223. I think Evan is only a lock for a medal because Ponsero and clean skates don't go together.

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    But Lysacek is the reigning World Champion, and the judges will give him higher PCS scores than his rivals. Just remember that Evan's rivals have to skate super clean themselves in order to beat him, and that is not a given.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alicja View Post
    Belbin/Agosto surely should win here but you never know with K/N. They had a really good GP series last season. We could argue that they got more support from their fed with D/S not at the top of their games. But they certainly have the goods to be up there if B/A have trouble.
    K/N didn't have that great a GP series last year. Sure, they won CoR over DomShabs (who skated poorly due to Shab's injury) and D/W (Charlie self-destructed in the OD, falling 3 times). But they could only manage a third at CoC, were well-beaten by DomShabs and B/A, and even finished behind Cappellini/Lanotte in the OD. They won Europeans, but only because DomShabs and DelShoes were absent. Their performances at Worlds and the WTT were not impressive at all.


    I'd love W/P to sneak in for the bronze, I know that's highly unlikely but I find them pretty underrated. I don't C/Z are up par with the senior couples yet. I don't think their presentation is balanced enough. Yet they're technically very good which could lead them to a bronze here.
    W/P are unlikely to win bronze because there are several teams besides B/A and K/N who have the capability to beat them: Faiella / Scali, Chock / Zuerlein, Zaretskis, Zadorozhniuk / Verbillo.
    Last edited by chuckm; 06-02-2009 at 06:30 PM.

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    Yeah! Lets get this party started. enlight78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    But Lysacek is the reigning World Champion, and the judges will give him higher PCS scores than his rivals. Just remember that Evan's rivals have to skate super clean themselves in order to beat him, and that is not a given.
    At most Evan might out score his opponents by ten points in pcs. That can be erased by a downgraded trip axel. Oda can has proven last year he can score 230 with a major mistake. Contesti often have a lot of minor mistakes and still scored above 220. None of the skaters need to be super clean. Evan just have to make a two major mistakes like a fall on a combo or an underotation and he is bronze or even off the podium. Many would agree his 2008 skate america performance wasn't bad but he still ended up with bronze.

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    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    I agree with everyone who pointed out that Evan beating Nobu is not a given, esp. since PJ Kwong will likely pick Evan. Even with a World Champion PCS boost like Evan got at the WTT, Nobu can still take it on the strength of better jumps, provided he counts them properly. And if Yannick ever skates two clean performances...

    In the ladies, I think Caro and Rachael could both spoil Joannie's trip to China.

    Pairs - Shen and Zhao .

    Dance - it's really B/A's event to lose; K/N are no longer feeling the love from their Fed and as a result, from the judges. Third place should go to F/S. The question is, who gets fourth? Will the Zars bounce back from a pretty bad season? They did win Universiade, which was in... China! Or maybe C/Z will make a big splash as seniors? Personally I find them dull beyond belief, but who knows. W/P are not likely to medal.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    While I am big on Oda and Contesti, and really big on Ponsero (more than Joubert even), I see these blokes as inconsistent, something I do not see in Evan. Of course one of them can give Evan a rough time. So no prediction.

    Fumie to me is just an athlete whose best skating is behind her. While I know Kostner has the goods to win, I hesitate to think of her skating 2 clean routines. I'd love to see Flatt give Joannie a rough time, but I doubt it and Bebe I believe is lost now, unfortunately, anxiously waiting to see Mirai so no prediction.

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    It's not just Carolina. All the European Ladies seem to be faltering. Compare the top 10 scores from the European Championship ......

    1 Laura LEPISTO FIN 167.32
    2 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 165.42
    3 Susanna POYKIO FIN 156.31
    4 Alena LEONOVA RUS 143.99
    5 Kiira KORPI FIN 139.01
    6 Katarina GERBOLDT RUS 137.05
    7 Annette DYTRT GER 136.98
    8 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 134.47
    9 Jenna MCCORKELL GBR 131.42
    10 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR 130.85

    with the top 10 from 4 Continents.

    1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 189.07
    2 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 183.91
    3 Mao ASADA JPN 176.52
    4 Caroline ZHANG USA 171.22
    5 Cynthia PHANEUF CAN 169.41
    6 Fumie SUGURI JPN 167.74
    7 Rachael FLATT USA 162.83
    8 Akiko SUZUKI JPN 160.36
    9 Alissa CZISNY USA 159.81
    10 Amélie LACOSTE CAN 146.18

    So either Laura would have come in 7th at 4CC and Fumie could have won Euros, or something is funny with the judging. Now take a look at Worlds ....

    1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 207.71
    2 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 191.29
    3 Miki ANDO JPN 190.38
    4 Mao ASADA JPN 188.09
    5 Rachael FLATT USA 172.41
    6 Laura LEPISTÖ FIN 170.07
    7 Alena LEONOVA RUS 168.91
    8 Fumie SUGURI JPN 164.58
    9 Sarah MEIER SUI 163.37
    10 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO 162.48

    The top European came in 6th.

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    and... World Peace! Tonichelle's Avatar
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    I think, so long as Evan steadily climbs in improvement throughout the season and doesn't bomb somewhere along the way to Vancouver, he'll be happy just to stay in teh mix... it'll be NICE if he does well and beats them early on, but he doesn't HAVE to...

    is it really something they WANT to do - get to the GPF - in an Olympic year... that's a lot of major competitions back to back for some of them.

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    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Evan knows what he is doing. I don't remember him ever falling. He has made a clean quad a couple of times. His 3A may or may not be still questionable. He skates without fear. But, I think Ponsero has a better chance in winning over Evan more than the others if and only if he loses the demons. Yannik has a beautiful quad kinda like Lambiel's.

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    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PolymerBob View Post
    It's not just Carolina. All the European Ladies seem to be faltering. Compare the top 10 scores from the European Championship ......

    1 Laura LEPISTO FIN 167.32
    2 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 165.42
    3 Susanna POYKIO FIN 156.31
    4 Alena LEONOVA RUS 143.99
    5 Kiira KORPI FIN 139.01
    6 Katarina GERBOLDT RUS 137.05
    7 Annette DYTRT GER 136.98
    8 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 134.47
    9 Jenna MCCORKELL GBR 131.42
    10 Tugba KARADEMIR TUR 130.85

    with the top 10 from 4 Continents.

    1 Yu-Na KIM KOR 189.07
    2 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN 183.91
    3 Mao ASADA JPN 176.52
    4 Caroline ZHANG USA 171.22
    5 Cynthia PHANEUF CAN 169.41
    6 Fumie SUGURI JPN 167.74
    7 Rachael FLATT USA 162.83
    8 Akiko SUZUKI JPN 160.36
    9 Alissa CZISNY USA 159.81
    10 Amélie LACOSTE CAN 146.18

    So either Laura would have come in 7th at 4CC and Fumie could have won Euros, or something is funny with the judging.
    Okay, but remember you can't just compare scores from different competitions like that. 4CC was notably overmarked - and it is fast establishing itself as a competition where the skaters are seriously overmarked.

    Worlds seemed to get pretty generous with the scores too especialyl snice it wasn't that much a better skated competition overall than Euros and 4CC.

    Ant

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    Custom Title antmanb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    Evan knows what he is doing. I don't remember him ever falling. He has made a clean quad a couple of times. His 3A may or may not be still questionable. He skates without fear. But, I think Ponsero has a better chance in winning over Evan more than the others if and only if he loses the demons. Yannik has a beautiful quad kinda like Lambiel's.
    Ponsero actually reminds me a little bit of Carolina Kostner, in that he has a few technique issues on some of the elements but when he's on, he blasts through them with speed. His speed often leaves him looking a little wild to me, and he might benefit from slowing down a tiny bit and having greater control. IMO.

    Ant

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