What will be the minimum points required to get the Finals?
Neither YuNa and Mao will get 30 but one of them has a chance for 30.
The other will have a chance for 28
Sasha has a chance for 30 at least on paper.
Joannie has a chance for 30.
Miki Ando has a chance for 28
Rachael Flatt has a chance for 26
Yukari Nakano could get 24
Caroline Zhang could get 24
Carolina Kostner could get 22
I believe the Finals cut off number will be 26 or (24 with several ties.)
Note: This is just my guesstimate. I have no idea how well Sasha will be received as well as Mirai, Kimmie, Alissa, Ashely, Susanna, Laura, or Akiko, but the ones mentioned above are the skaters most discussed for the GPs.
Last edited by Joesitz; 06-04-2009 at 05:02 PM.
It's useless to speculate about this right now, when we don't even know how well (or poorly) the various skaters are performing in practice.
Furthermore, the rosters could change drastically because of injuries and skaters dropping out.
Yeah! Lets get this party started.
I think all the skaters above will have good chance at medaling.24 will be the cut off.
Entirely useless, but so much fun! And the off-season is so long!
Originally Posted by chuckm
TEB: Kim (15), Asada (13), Cohen (11), Zhang (9), Nakano (7), Kostner (5)
CoR: Asada (15), Ando (13), Wagner (11), Poykio (9), Meissner (7), Leonova (5)
CoC: Rochette (15), Kostner (13), Flatt (11), Nagasu (9), Suzuki (7), Suguri (5)
NHK: Ando (15), Nakano (13), Wagner (11), Lepisto (9), Meier (7), Meissner (5)
SA: Kim (15), Cohen (13), Flatt (11), Suguri (9), Poykio (7), Sebestyen (5)
SC: Rochette (15), Zhang (13), Nagasu (11), Suzuki (9), Lepisto (7), Meier (5)
1. Kim (30)
2. Rochette (30)
3. Asada (28)
4. Ando (28)
5. Cohen (24)
6. Zhang (22) -- Zhang beats out Flatt and Wagner by placement tiebreaker
7. Flatt (22)
8. Wagner (22) -- Flatt beats out Wagner by scoring higher
9. Nakano (20)
10. Nagasu (20) -- Nakano beats out Nagasu by placement tiebreaker
That I think is the most likely scenario. I think the biggest variable is Carolina Kostner. She usually does badly early in the season, then steadily progresses. Still hunting for a new coach in June, I think she will probably do badly at TEB against a strong field, then bounce back strongly at CoC. In the last two seasons, she did badly at her first GP, then won the second, and went on to earn bronze at GPF. I don't see her beating Rochette at CoC in any case. But who knows with Kostner, maybe she will skate below par, while Flatt or Nagasu will skate brilliantly. If Flatt or Nagasu earns silver behind Rochette, then she will go to GPF with 24 points and Caroline Zhang will become the first alternate.
In any case, I see Kim, Rochette, Mao, Ando, and Sasha in the GPF barring injuries, and one of the American youngsters snatching the 6th spot. And to answer Joe's original question, I think the cut-off will be 22 or 24 (and the 6th person will be Zhang or Flatt) depending on Carolina.
I think Nagasu and Wagner are also serious threats for that 6th spot, and moreover they are in good coaching hands. Nevetheless, I think teenage girls undergoing puberty and experiencing repeated under-rotation problems are not likely to overcome them easily (just think Kimmie Meissner); it usually takes them several years to get on top of their jumps again (think Miki Ando), if they are determined.
Last edited by feraina; 06-05-2009 at 01:57 AM.
I find myself totally unable to make any predictions about Sasha. She could come in first, or last. I figure the strongest ladies at TEB are believed to be Mao, Yu-Na and Carolina. But there is a good chance one of them will get mule-kicked off the podium.
Well, I'm just looking at how Caroline and Rachael's PCS haven't really climbed substantially over the last two seasons (while Yu-na's and Joannie's have really improved their already-high PCS, and even Miki got really high PCS at World's), and I don't see how how that will change in a few more months. Even if they have the technical goods, we've seen again and again how easily those are negated by PCS advantages (National's, 4CC, etc.). Can Caroline & Rachael sufficiently improve on their presentation and skating skills to catch up with the big girls in terms of PCS in time for the GP's? I somehow really doubt even though I root for both of them strongly. I get the strong sense that the judges don't feel like these two *deserve* to beat out Yu-na, Mao, Joannie (and probably Miki and Sasha, too), no matter how well they skate with their currently capabilities.
Originally Posted by Mathman
L'art pour l'art
Well, Ando didn't have really strong PCS before Worlds - I think her PCS at Worlds has a lot to do with the fact that her performance kicked some major butt. Rochette was tentative and doubled the loop, Asada didn't have a good day... But Ando had a clean (to the eye) performance except for the UR on the loop and was really in control out there. No stumbles, no tentative stuff - just a strong clean self-confident skate.
Originally Posted by feraina
Seeing as how Rachael has had only ONE Senior season and ONE Junior season, I don't think it's fair to conclude that her PCS scores haven't climbed 'substantially'. The first year up from Juniors usually sees lower PCS scores than the established skaters.
Originally Posted by feraina
Rachael's PCS score in the Worlds FS ranked 7th, ahead of Suguri, Meier, and Poykio. Not bad for a skater in her first World Championship. She could hardly have been expected to top Kostner, Rochette, Asada, Ando and Kim on PCS her first time out.
Last edited by chuckm; 06-05-2009 at 05:21 PM.
But what will the 'magic number' to make the Finals?
with or without ties?
Originally Posted by Mathman
Once you get down into the lower numbers, there are always ties. The first tiebreaker is the higher placement. So 2nd + 4th beats out 3rd + 3rd. The next tiebreaker is the higher score. From there, it spirals down into a complicated series of tiebreakers.
Ties can also occur in the upper numbers. If Joannie skates a 30 as does Kim or Adada, it will be a first place tie.
Originally Posted by PolymerBob
I'm not sure what the Order of Skate is for GPF. If it's by draw than Results of GPs are not important, but if it baser on the order of finish then it is important, particularly for me who thnks the oder of skate is important in how a contestant skates.
The last contestant to skate will either be intimidated by what happened before him or be challenged to skate one upmanship. Jefrey Buttle comes to mind skating after Joubert, and Joubert skating after Evan..
If you were Asada, would you want to skate before or after Kim?
The start order of the GPF SP is in inverse order of placement in the GP.
For 2008-2009, the overall GP standings were:
1. 30, 1, 1, 385.20 KIM
2. 30, 1, 1, 369.62 ROCHETTE
3. 28, 2, 1, 358.72 ASADA
4. 24, 4, 1, 323.48 KOSTNER
5. 24, 2, 3, 339.40 NAKANO
6. 24, 3, 2, 339.30 ANDO
So the start order of the GPF was Ando, Nakano, Kostner, Asada, Rochette, Kim.
The finish order after the SP:
1. 65.94 KIM (3F+3T, 1Z, 2A) 30.44 PCS
2. 65.38 ASADA (3F+3Lo<, 3Z, 2A) 29.68 PCS
3. 62.08 NAKANO (3F!+2T, 3Z, 2A) 27.88 PCS
4. 55.88 KOSTNER (3F(fall), 3Z, 2A) 28.08 PCS
5. 55.44 ANDO (3Z<(fall), 3F, 2A) 28.60 PCS
6. 50.48 ROCHETTE (2A, 2F+2T, 1Z) 27.48 PCS
So here you had a SP where no one had a completely clean skate. Ando skated first (fell on an underrotated jump-no combo), yet she got a higher PCS score than Kostner (fell on a rotated jump-no combo) and Nakano (near-clean skate except for a lip). OTOH, skating next-to-last did not help Joannie Rochette at all; although all the skaters before her had mistakes, instead of being able to capitalize on their misfortune, she had a disastrous skate, and received the lowest PCS score of all.