What will be the minimum points required to get the Finals?

[Joesitz]

Neither YuNa and Mao will get 30 but one of them has a chance for 30.
The other will have a chance for 28
Sasha has a chance for 30 at least on paper.
Joannie has a chance for 30.
Miki Ando has a chance for 28
Rachael Flatt has a chance for 26
Yukari Nakano could get 24
Caroline Zhang could get 24
Carolina Kostner could get 22

I believe the Finals cut off number will be 26 or (24 with several ties.)

Note: This is just my guesstimate. I have no idea how well Sasha will be received as well as Mirai, Kimmie, Alissa, Ashely, Susanna, Laura, or Akiko, but the ones mentioned above are the skaters most discussed for the GPs.

[chuckm]

It's useless to speculate about this right now, when we don't even know how well (or poorly) the various skaters are performing in practice.

Furthermore, the rosters could change drastically because of injuries and skaters dropping out.

[enlight78]

I think all the skaters above will have good chance at medaling.24 will be the cut off.

[feraina]

It's useless to speculate about this right now, when we don't even know how well (or poorly) the various skaters are performing in practice.

Entirely useless, but so much fun! And the off-season is so long!

My predictions:

TEB: Kim (15), Asada (13), Cohen (11), Zhang (9), Nakano (7), Kostner (5)
CoR: Asada (15), Ando (13), Wagner (11), Poykio (9), Meissner (7), Leonova (5)
CoC: Rochette (15), Kostner (13), Flatt (11), Nagasu (9), Suzuki (7), Suguri (5)
NHK: Ando (15), Nakano (13), Wagner (11), Lepisto (9), Meier (7), Meissner (5)
SA: Kim (15), Cohen (13), Flatt (11), Suguri (9), Poykio (7), Sebestyen (5)
SC: Rochette (15), Zhang (13), Nagasu (11), Suzuki (9), Lepisto (7), Meier (5)

GPF:
1. Kim (30)
2. Rochette (30)
3. Asada (28)
4. Ando (28)
5. Cohen (24)
6. Zhang (22) -- Zhang beats out Flatt and Wagner by placement tiebreaker

Alternates:
7. Flatt (22)
8. Wagner (22) -- Flatt beats out Wagner by scoring higher
9. Nakano (20)
10. Nagasu (20) -- Nakano beats out Nagasu by placement tiebreaker

That I think is the most likely scenario. I think the biggest variable is Carolina Kostner. She usually does badly early in the season, then steadily progresses. Still hunting for a new coach in June, I think she will probably do badly at TEB against a strong field, then bounce back strongly at CoC. In the last two seasons, she did badly at her first GP, then won the second, and went on to earn bronze at GPF. I don't see her beating Rochette at CoC in any case. But who knows with Kostner, maybe she will skate below par, while Flatt or Nagasu will skate brilliantly. If Flatt or Nagasu earns silver behind Rochette, then she will go to GPF with 24 points and Caroline Zhang will become the first alternate.

In any case, I see Kim, Rochette, Mao, Ando, and Sasha in the GPF barring injuries, and one of the American youngsters snatching the 6th spot. And to answer Joe's original question, I think the cut-off will be 22 or 24 (and the 6th person will be Zhang or Flatt) depending on Carolina.

I think Nagasu and Wagner are also serious threats for that 6th spot, and moreover they are in good coaching hands. Nevetheless, I think teenage girls undergoing puberty and experiencing repeated under-rotation problems are not likely to overcome them easily (just think Kimmie Meissner); it usually takes them several years to get on top of their jumps again (think Miki Ando), if they are determined.

[Mathman]

My predictions:...

I think Rochette might be vulnerable in both of her events.

I think Sasha would be totally over the moon if she got 3rd in France and 2nd in Skate America. That would mean that the only skaters to beat her were Kim and Asada.

I believe that we will see the gap starting to narrow between the ladies who have leveled out at the top and the ones that are rushing the hill to topple them. Caroline could get at least third at TEB and could challenge for gold in Canada. Rachael could get two silvers. Leonova could get third at Cup of Russia.

Out with the old, in with the new.

[PolymerBob]

I find myself totally unable to make any predictions about Sasha. She could come in first, or last. I figure the strongest ladies at TEB are believed to be Mao, Yu-Na and Carolina. But there is a good chance one of them will get mule-kicked off the podium.

[feraina]

I believe that we will see the gap starting to narrow between the ladies who have leveled out at the top and the ones that are rushing the hill to topple them. Caroline could get at least third at TEB and could challenge for gold in Canada. Rachael could get two silvers. Leonova could get third at Cup of Russia.

Well, I'm just looking at how Caroline and Rachael's PCS haven't really climbed substantially over the last two seasons (while Yu-na's and Joannie's have really improved their already-high PCS, and even Miki got really high PCS at World's), and I don't see how how that will change in a few more months. Even if they have the technical goods, we've seen again and again how easily those are negated by PCS advantages (National's, 4CC, etc.). Can Caroline & Rachael sufficiently improve on their presentation and skating skills to catch up with the big girls in terms of PCS in time for the GP's? I somehow really doubt even though I root for both of them strongly. I get the strong sense that the judges don't feel like these two *deserve* to beat out Yu-na, Mao, Joannie (and probably Miki and Sasha, too), no matter how well they skate with their currently capabilities.

[Medusa]

I get the strong sense that the judges don't feel like these two *deserve* to beat out Yu-na, Mao, Joannie (and probably Miki and Sasha, too), no matter how well they skate with their currently capabilities.

Well, Ando didn't have really strong PCS before Worlds - I think her PCS at Worlds has a lot to do with the fact that her performance kicked some major butt. Rochette was tentative and doubled the loop, Asada didn't have a good day... But Ando had a clean (to the eye) performance except for the UR on the loop and was really in control out there. No stumbles, no tentative stuff - just a strong clean self-confident skate.

[chuckm]

Well, I'm just looking at how Caroline and Rachael's PCS haven't really climbed substantially over the last two seasons (while Yu-na's and Joannie's have really improved their already-high PCS, and even Miki got really high PCS at World's), and I don't see how how that will change in a few more months. Even if they have the technical goods, we've seen again and again how easily those are negated by PCS advantages (National's, 4CC, etc.). Can Caroline & Rachael sufficiently improve on their presentation and skating skills to catch up with the big girls in terms of PCS in time for the GP's? I somehow really doubt even though I root for both of them strongly. I get the strong sense that the judges don't feel like these two *deserve* to beat out Yu-na, Mao, Joannie (and probably Miki and Sasha, too), no matter how well they skate with their currently capabilities.

Seeing as how Rachael has had only ONE Senior season and ONE Junior season, I don't think it's fair to conclude that her PCS scores haven't climbed 'substantially'. The first year up from Juniors usually sees lower PCS scores than the established skaters.

Rachael's PCS score in the Worlds FS ranked 7th, ahead of Suguri, Meier, and Poykio. Not bad for a skater in her first World Championship. She could hardly have been expected to top Kostner, Rochette, Asada, Ando and Kim on PCS her first time out.