Midsummer Thoughts on the Olympic Front Runners

Fumie coaching change???

Is it true that Fumie has gone to Mishin last month? If so, why? Also why now?
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/村主章枝

Bennett said:

Is it true that Fumie has gone to Mishin last month? If so, why? Also why now?
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/村主章枝

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Yes, it's true. She went to Mishin's training camp late this summer, and decided to change coaches after the camp.

There was no official reason given for the switch. Before going to the camp (Dreams on Ice 09) Fumie said in an interview that she was happy working with Morozov and liked very much her Gala choreographed by him.

My guess is that after the last season the dynamics in the Morozov team might have changed a little. I think that very few people suspected (including Fumie herself) that Fumie might end up beating not only Yukari for the Worlds team, but also Mao and Miki in the LP at Nationals.

I think Fumie wants to give her absolute best at this season's Nationals to make the Olympic team, because she is going to retire afterwards. Sharing a coach with one of your biggest competitors for the Olympic spot could get a little uncomfortable, especially considering how Japanese media love drama.
At last Nationals, Morozov could not be with Fumie before the LP, because Miki and Fumie collided in the warm-up and Miki got injured. In the Olympic season a similar situation could be really blown out of proportion by the media and make things uncomfortable for both of the ladies.

Mishin has no other top lady and he's known as a good jumps coach, which is probably what Fumie needs the most right now. I think it might be a smart choice on Fumie's part. She has nothing to lose and has to go all out in order to beat ladies younger than her and with a bigger arsenal of jumps.

I wish her good luck.

Thanks. But I wonder if she had nothing to lose. She did so well under Morozov. Switching a coach right before the season is such a big choice. Yet, she is certainly veteran enough to know what's the best for herself. I wish her all the best!

I want Shen/Zhao to win... They deserve that medal. They are exceptionally soft and artistic. The last time I had this feeling about a skating pair was with Gordeeva and Grinkov...

With the ladies, I hope Sasha wins. She is fantastic. Absolutely. Fantastic.

With dancers, perhaps the Kerr siblings. They are unique. They bring more to the table than just the usual dances. And they are also from the UK, my previous favourites were from there also. (Torvill and Dean.)

With men... *cough* Evgeni for gold.
But I will be nervous for: Evan, Daisuke, Yannick, Johnny, Tomas, STÉPHANE... and Patrick Chan who is mindblowing. What a field of amazing skaters. I agree with whoever said that the men's competition SHOULD BE SOMETHING ELSE THIS SEASON...

after seeing some of the skaters skate in shows and now some early competitions . I think zhen & zhou have a good chance of winning along with the german team.
Mao, Miki, Yu-Na and Joannie have step it up a bit with Mao and Yu-Na definetly the ones to beat. THe u.s. women, sasha, mirai, rachel, ashley, caroline, have a ways to catch up not only in jumps but also in mental toughness. It looks to me the US women are about a year behind. Sasha still expects to be handed to her, she expects the national title and olympic spot. Read between the lines for what they are writing and saying.__Sasha has the spot and the natonal title--they Willl Cheat for Sasha. (overlook her ur's, her low jump and whatever else to keep her ahead--all you need to do is she how they butchered caroline or did somewhat right at the Golden west vs rachel who didn't get nailed for ur(which she did do -nail mirai in the short for two-footed jump (ur), Alissa score at liberty overlooked her mistakes..
YEs Sasha is national champ now and on the olympic team, They will do what they have always done--cheat for her at the expense of the younger skaters --why supposedly more money-more endorsement deals or whatever.

men-stephane lambiel needs to step it up, evan is doing okay, johnny is doing okay- evygeny--needs to still work (at last i saw but he should be ready by the season start ( i only saw patrick at liberty- wasn't impressed--sorry.

I have often suggested there will be some creative judging at Nationals. But I think the judges will hold up the stars of the Grand Prix, if there are any.

I think Rachael, Alissa, and Mirai are most likely to shine through the Grand Prix given the events all the U.S. ladies are assigned and competition they will be up against.

Of all the "comebackers" I'm most excited and delighted to be seeing Shen and ZHao back.. I also think they have the best chance at the podium -top spot.

I'm very excited to get to preview so many US Olympic hopefuls next weekend at a Disson show - my first.

Evan, Johnny, Jeremy for the men. Alissa, Caroline and Mirai - AND newly added Sasha - for the ladies. Tanith & Ben and McLaughlin/Brubaker. What a cast! Hopefully will gain some insight on their preparations for the GP.

1. Russia will win no golds in figure skating the next 4 years if Plushenko retires.

2. Lambiel will not win the next Olympic Gold whether Plushenko retires or not.

3. Belbin/Agosto will not win the next Olympic Gold.

4. The U.S will not win a medal of any color in mens at the next Olympics.

5. Canada will win atleast 2 medals at the next Olympics.

6. Kwan and Slutskaya will not be at the next Olympics.

7. If Cohen is at the next Olympics she will not medal.

8. Zhang/Zhang will be the next Olympic Champions.

9. Pang/Tong will retire before the next Olympics.

10. Sandhu will never win a World medal, and will retire before the next Olympics.

I will be right on all 10 of these, there is no doubt.

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I remember this thread and all the doubters to my next husband SluteFan - but with the exception of 8 & 9 - HA! to all those who scoffed his analysis... this is still spot on. And there's no way to be certain that Z/ Z won't win...

I do hope he was dead wrong about Belbin & Agosto - seeing how these dancing fools are the US's best chance for a gold medal... In Ice Dance. Who would've ever thought that?!?

As to the other favs... I have no opinion outside of I would be shocked if Mao or Yuna win the gold and I seriously don't buy into the whole "judges will cheat for Sasha" thing. Mainly because I don't see how the ISU or even the USFSA benefits from this...

Sasha never held the hearts of the governing bodies or the star power to attract a diverse audience. She was always the second best skater in the US who had the cool spins. Why cheat for her now? She's in the race simply for the Olympics. If we know this, so does the USFSA. With only two spots to award, why gift a skater who hasn't been grinding it out for the past two years when there is a whole crop of ladies that are paying dues and skating well enough to gain a third spot at the post-Olympics worlds? It doesn't make sense.

Granted, this is the USFSA we're talking about...

As for thoughts on the front runners:

Ladies:
I see either Joanne or Miki winning the big prize and one of the US newbies sneaking in at '10 Worlds to a podium finish.

Men:
Joubert will take home the gold. Evan will win bronze if Plushy shows up.

Pairs:
S/Z will be the only returns that will walk away with gold.

Dance:
Belbin & Agosto will win or come in second to the French.

Okami said:

My guess is that after the last season the dynamics in the Morozov team might have changed a little. I think that very few people suspected (including Fumie herself) that Fumie might end up beating not only Yukari for the Worlds team, but also Mao and Miki in the LP at Nationals.

I think Fumie wants to give her absolute best at this season's Nationals to make the Olympic team, because she is going to retire afterwards. Sharing a coach with one of your biggest competitors for the Olympic spot could get a little uncomfortable, especially considering how Japanese media love drama.
At last Nationals, Morozov could not be with Fumie before the LP, because Miki and Fumie collided in the warm-up and Miki got injured. In the Olympic season a similar situation could be really blown out of proportion by the media and make things uncomfortable for both of the ladies.

Mishin has no other top lady and he's known as a good jumps coach, which is probably what Fumie needs the most right now. I think it might be a smart choice on Fumie's part. She has nothing to lose and has to go all out in order to beat ladies younger than her and with a bigger arsenal of jumps.

I wish her good luck.

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As I think of it, it seems true that Morozov had not given her the same level of attention and care as he does to Miki last season. Are Mishin and Fumie close? When I see the Morozov-Miki and TAT-Mao relationships, I feel it extremely important that your coach is absolutely supportive. Both Morozov and TAT are big fans of Miki and Mao, respectively. TAT treats Mao like an adorable granddaughter and gives her absolute compliments. Even when she does not do well, TAT remains strongly convinced of Mao's success. Although Morozov sounded decently supportive, it is true that he was absent at SC and Japanese Nationals for Fumie. I hope that Mishin can afford more time and care for her.

Kwanford Wife said:

Men:
Joubert will take home the gold. Evan will win bronze if Plushy shows up.

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*cough* I honestly hope you'll be wrong. Nothing personal.

Noondarkly said:

*cough* I honestly hope you'll be wrong. Nothing personal.

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No worries... yours is probably the most polite scoff I've EVER gotten on GS...

Kwanford Wife said:

I remember this thread and all the doubters to my next husband SluteFan - but with the exception of 8 & 9 - HA! to all those who scoffed his analysis... this is still spot on. And there's no way to be certain that Z/ Z won't win...

I do hope he was dead wrong about Belbin & Agosto - seeing how these dancing fools are the US's best chance for a gold medal... In Ice Dance. Who would've ever thought that?!?

As to the other favs... I have no opinion outside of I would be shocked if Mao or Yuna win the gold and I seriously don't buy into the whole "judges will cheat for Sasha" thing. Mainly because I don't see how the ISU or even the USFSA benefits from this...

Sasha never held the hearts of the governing bodies or the star power to attract a diverse audience. She was always the second best skater in the US who had the cool spins. Why cheat for her now? She's in the race simply for the Olympics. If we know this, so does the USFSA. With only two spots to award, why gift a skater who hasn't been grinding it out for the past two years when there is a whole crop of ladies that are paying dues and skating well enough to gain a third spot at the post-Olympics worlds? It doesn't make sense.

Granted, this is the USFSA we're talking about...

As for thoughts on the front runners:

Ladies:
I see either Joanne or Miki winning the big prize and one of the US newbies sneaking in at '10 Worlds to a podium finish.

Men:
Joubert will take home the gold. Evan will win bronze if Plushy shows up.

Pairs:
S/Z will be the only returns that will walk away with gold.

Dance:
Belbin & Agosto will win or come in second to the French.

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I'm curious about why you think Kim or Asada winning would be such a shock? I mean they have been the two best skaters in the world for the last four years? I'm wondering if you think it's because of the pressure...

I know that Michelle and Irina didn't manage to win the Olympics. But there have been plenty of top skaters who did.

Tara won, and as saying as she was the reiging world champion, she had plenty of pressure at least on herself.
Okanana-reigning world champ won
Kristi won-she was reigning world champ.
Katerina won too.

I do think it's possible that Miki might win. Although Miki didn't handle Olympic pressure very well last time. But Joannie. Joannie is going to be competiting at a home Olympics, that's plenty of pressure, and both Asada and Kim especially Kim are better under pressure than Joannie is.

I think too that Kim/Asada have already had tons of pressure on them their entire careers. Figure skating is a much bigger deal than it is in North America. Kim faced enormous pressure to win the 09 World championships. Michelle and Irina never had the eyes of their entire nation on them to see if they could win a mere world title.

bekalc said:

I'm curious about why you think Kim or Asada winning would be such a shock? I mean they have been the two best skaters in the world for the last four years? I'm wondering if you think it's because of the pressure...

I know that Michelle and Irina didn't manage to win the Olympics. But there have been plenty of top skaters who did.

Tara won, and as saying as she was the reiging world champion, she had plenty of pressure at least on herself.
Okanana-reigning world champ won
Kristi won-she was reigning world champ.
Katerina won too.

I do think it's possible that Miki might win. Although Miki didn't handle Olympic pressure very well last time. But Joannie. Joannie is going to be competiting at a home Olympics, that's plenty of pressure, and both Asada and Kim especially Kim are better under pressure than Joannie is.

I think too that Kim/Asada have already had tons of pressure on them their entire careers. Figure skating is a much bigger deal than it is in North America. Kim faced enormous pressure to win the 09 World championships. Michelle and Irina never had the eyes of their entire nation on them to see if they could win a mere world title.

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I don't think that Michelle and Irina lost olympic golds because of external pressure - I think they both wanted it too much and thought too long about it. And I disagree about the "eyes of their nation" on them... For years, both of these ladies where the only game in town, espcially true for Irina, so we should be careful in disregarding just how well each held up under extreme pressure. IMO what they accomplished year after year is astounding - much harder to stay on top than to remain there...

Which leads me to Yuna - she reminds me of Johnny Weir. Beautiful skater. Ooodles of talent but you're just never certain she's gonna skate clean. If she pulls together a clean short, she will be hard to beat. If she goes 2/2 ala Worlds - impossible to beat. But unlike the aforementioned skaters - I don't think that's likely. And she's already hinted at retiring after the games - way too much story arc with young lady. Her winning will come down to the skating gods and I simply don't trust them that much...

Mao is different. She burst out so strong and was denied entry to 2006 because of her age. And quite frankly has gotten a little bit shaker each year. In '06 I thought she could win without the 3axel now - I don't thinks she can win without it add that to her lack of a complete set of triples and it makes you wonder... is she really that good? can she compete and win? can she compete and land that jump? When your game plan is skate well until the bonus kicks in and then do jump after jump after jump - what do you do when you can't? Without the 3 axel and 3/3 is she Mighty Mao or just another great skater? She's going to be interesting to watch durning the GP.

Miki - she's so unpredictable - in a good way. I can see her falling apart and coming in 4th or I can see her on the top spot. Its going to be either / or - nothing in between. Remember when she hit the scene with that quad? Everyone called her the dragon slayer - she was going to put the reigning ice queens to shame. And she never did. Since I believe the OGM is a karma thing - I can see her living up to that potential when she's finally mature enough to harness that talent and make it sing. Or she might get bumped at Japan's Nationals.

Joanne - any of the other three skate poorly and she's gonna walk away with the top prize. Not because she's the best skater, but because she held it together at exactly the right time. She will be the Sarah Hughes of 2010 - the fourth best skater in the World who shook up the power base... not too shabby.

I LOVE AN OLYMPIC YEAR!!!

Doesnt Joanne typically skate better in front of a home crowd? I think the Olympics being at home for her will help her.

Which leads me to Yuna - she reminds me of Johnny Weir. Beautiful skater. Ooodles of talent but you're just never certain she's gonna skate clean. If she pulls together a clean short, she will be hard to beat. If she goes 2/2 ala Worlds - impossible to beat. But unlike the aforementioned skaters - I don't think that's likely. And she's already hinted at retiring after the games - way too much story arc with young lady. Her winning will come down to the skating gods and I simply don't trust them that much...

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Huh? How does Kim compare to Johnny? Kim's a world champion and has never finished of the medal stand at worlds. Johnny barely won a bronze medal.

Kim skates very COP friendly, Johnny does not. Johnny's biggest issue is his inability to skate COP friendly programs.

Kim has been the most consistent lady of the last four years. By quite a bit. Yes she normally makes mistakes, but her mistakes tend to be less than her competitors.. Her poorer showings at worlds, were somewhat to do with her health issues. The girl has lost only four times her entire freaking Senior career: 2006 Skate Canada, 2006 Worlds, 2007 Worlds, 2008 GPF. And two of those worlds she was injured and not nearly in great shape.

Nobody, has Kim's record or has been consistent as Kim has been. So the idea that Kim needs "luck" or the skate gods is a bit like huh?

As for Joannie she skates well at Skate Canada, but Skate Canada normally doesn't have the hardest competition. But she bombed at the 2006 Worlds in Canada, and has had her issues with Nationals in the past.

As for comparing Joannie to Sarah Hughes or Tara that's ridiculous. Sarah Hughes throughout her career was a very consistent competitor. She rarely made major mistakes. And so it's not surprising that when Irina who always had issues with big moments faltered, and Michelle who was struggling faltered...

In the case of Shizuka, yes Shizuka wasn't that consistent but Shiz had delivered at big moments in the past unlike Sasha. And it shouldn't be so surprising Irina bombed at the Olympics again.

You just cannot compare Joannie to Shizuka, Sarah, or Tara. Especially Sarah or Tara. You cannot even compare her to Shizuka because Shizuka has done 2 clean programs in the past, Joannie has not.

The only thing I can see happen is Miki pulling a Shizuka because Miki has delivered in the past some programs with high difficulty that are clean.

Mao is a question mark because Mao was working on her jumping technique last season which I think led to her consistency issues. If Asada is at 2008 form though...

I'm not saying Joannie cannot win, but to think she's more likely to win that Kim/Asada, when Kim/Asada have had a history of delivering under pressure better than Joannie is a bit of a huh? for me.

IMO All the ladies have great pressure:
Kim = Defending World Champ and striving to become the first Korean OGM/OM in figure skating

Mao/Miki = Japan is defending nation in ladies event, and both of them are expected to follow Shizuka

Joannie = A chance for OM in 20 years for Canada/ not to mention skating at home

I think the only lady that is not under extreme pressure like the top 4 is Calrolina Kostner. But then she may want to redeem herself with at least top 5 finish after her dissapointing placement in L.A.

Most of the ladies who finish on the podium will probably skip the 2010 world, so i guess it will be consulation prize for who ever finish in 4th and 5th position to get a world medel.

someone asked if joannie typically skates will in front of home crowd.
i can think of only once that (I considered she skated well) that was last years nationals. I am not going to add in hyped scores. (last year nationals didn't count.)

bekalc said:

Huh? How does Kim compare to Johnny? Kim's a world champion and has never finished of the medal stand at worlds. Johnny barely won a bronze medal.

Kim skates very COP friendly, Johnny does not. Johnny's biggest issue is his inability to skate COP friendly programs.

Kim has been the most consistent lady of the last four years. By quite a bit. Yes she normally makes mistakes, but her mistakes tend to be less than her competitors.. Her poorer showings at worlds, were somewhat to do with her health issues. The girl has lost only four times her entire freaking Senior career: 2006 Skate Canada, 2006 Worlds, 2007 Worlds, 2008 GPF. And two of those worlds she was injured and not nearly in great shape.

Nobody, has Kim's record or has been consistent as Kim has been. So the idea that Kim needs "luck" or the skate gods is a bit like huh?

As for Joannie she skates well at Skate Canada, but Skate Canada normally doesn't have the hardest competition. But she bombed at the 2006 Worlds in Canada, and has had her issues with Nationals in the past.

As for comparing Joannie to Sarah Hughes or Tara that's ridiculous. Sarah Hughes throughout her career was a very consistent competitor. She rarely made major mistakes. And so it's not surprising that when Irina who always had issues with big moments faltered, and Michelle who was struggling faltered...

In the case of Shizuka, yes Shizuka wasn't that consistent but Shiz had delivered at big moments in the past unlike Sasha. And it shouldn't be so surprising Irina bombed at the Olympics again.

You just cannot compare Joannie to Shizuka, Sarah, or Tara. Especially Sarah or Tara. You cannot even compare her to Shizuka because Shizuka has done 2 clean programs in the past, Joannie has not.

The only thing I can see happen is Miki pulling a Shizuka because Miki has delivered in the past some programs with high difficulty that are clean.

Mao is a question mark because Mao was working on her jumping technique last season which I think led to her consistency issues. If Asada is at 2008 form though...

I'm not saying Joannie cannot win, but to think she's more likely to win that Kim/Asada, when Kim/Asada have had a history of delivering under pressure better than Joannie is a bit of a huh? for me.

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I gave a lot of thought to your response because you make very valid points - I don't know why Kim reminds me of Johnny... but she just does. I think its because both skaters cause me to hold my breath while they skate... as for her health issues - anything that leads to inconsistent skating, is still inconsistent. Is that untrue? Should I not view falls as falls? 2008 / 2009 season was break out for Kim and I hope she keeps that level of quality moving forward. But it is what it is... (don't you just hate that phrase?)

Look, when it comes to Joannie - I do think the Sarah comparision is fair. Sarah Hughes was a strong competitior and she did have the gift of skating better than she was in a high pressure situation. No arguements there. But in 2002, she was the fourth / fifth best skater in the world - based on quality of the skating of others. No one expected her to win and she did. DivaKwara was in the same spot in 2006. No one expected her to win because of her disaster that was 2005 Worlds. And look at what happened. Joannie easily falls into this catergory and of all the top ladies - she has the potential to do the same. Maybe even more so since skating is all about timing AND she's on home ice.

Now let's talk about past stats vs. future competiton and "luck"... In 2001, Kwan was on fire. 2005 & 2006, Irina was on so much fire that people didn't even think it was necessary to watch the ladies long program to figure out who'd win the OGM. One thing I've learned watching skating is that unless your name is Katerina Witt - you better have luck on your side when you step out on that olympic ice. And your fans better be humble.

I too thought the idea of "luck" didn't come into play at the Olympics because Michelle Kwan was the Greatest. Of. All. Time. and had the nerves and the talent to make "luck" a four-letter word. And her fans were eating chicken and junior mints.

As a Kim fan you mock the skating gods at your own peril.

ook, when it comes to Joannie - I do think the Sarah comparision is fair. Sarah Hughes was a strong competitior and she did have the gift of skating better than she was in a high pressure situation. No arguements there. But in 2002, she was the fourth / fifth best skater in the world - based on quality of the skating of others. No one expected her to win and she did. DivaKwara was in the same spot in 2006. No one expected her to win because of her disaster that was 2005 Worlds. And look at what happened. Joannie easily falls into this catergory and of all the top ladies - she has the potential to do the same. Maybe even more so since skating is all about timing AND she's on home ice.

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I just don't see this once again. The thing about Joannie is that she always manages to make some kind of mistake to ensure that she doesn't win. And because Joannie is doing less difficulty than the likes of Kim and Asada, Joannie actually has to be perfect.

Arakawa had managed before 2006 Olympics to step it up to the plate at higher pressure situations see 2004 Worlds. And Sarah Hughes was a very consistent competitor.. .

You cannot compare Arakawa to Rochette. And I wasn't surprised at all by Arakawa's win. She was looking much better in the Olympic season, which is way more telling than how she looked at 2005 worlds. Practice reports said Arakawa was lighting up the joint. After the short program, I totally thought Arakawa was going to skate lights out like she did in 2004 and win.