Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Ladies Roster Presumptive
Now that the ISU press release has confirmed Georgia officially giving up their second spot, I can finally do this final roster:
1. KOR: Yu-Na Kim, locked
2. KOR: Na-Young Kim, very probable
3. CAN: Joannie Rochette, locked
4. CAN: Cynthia Phaneuf, very probable
5. JPN: Mao Asada, locked
6. JPN: Miki Ando, probable
7. JPN: Yukari Nakano, Fumie Suguri, or Akiko Suzuki
8/9. USA: Rachael Flatt and Caroline Zhang, frontrunners over Ashley Wagner, Mirai Nagasu, Sasha Cohen, Alissa Czisney, Kimmie Meissner, Emily Hughes...
10. FIN: Laura Lepisto, probable
11. FIN: Kiira Korpi, Susanna Poyki, or Jenni Vahaama
12. RUS: Alena Leonova, locked
13. RUS: Oksana Gozeva, Ksenia Makarova, Ksenia Doronina, or Arina Martinova. Or is anyone else old enough?
14. SUI: Sarah Meier, is supposed to twice achieve a certain score internationally, but I find it hard to believe she won't go
15. SUI: Nicole Graf or Noemie Silberer? I find it very possible the Swiss federation will enforce requirements here and give this spot up
16. GEO: Elene Gedevanishvili, locked
17. ITA: Carolina Kostner, locked
18. SVK: Ivana Reitmayerova, locked
19. EST: Elena Glebova, locked
20. GER: Annette Dytrt, will probably have to make top eight at Europeans, certainly something like that, and Germany refused to send her when she failed to do this in 2006
21. POL: Anna Jurkiewicz, possibly officially named already
22. GBR: Jenna McCorkell, locked
23. TUR: Tugba Karademir, locked
24. CHN: Yan Liu, very probable
25. HUN: Julia Sebestyen, locked
26. SLO: Teodora Postic, locked
27. AUT: Mariam Ziegler, very probable
28. ESP: Sonia LaFuente, locked
29. BEL: Isabelle Pieman, locked
30. ISR: Tamar Katz, will probably have to make top ten at Europeans
1. CZE: Nella Simaova, didn't even come close to making the Czech's federation's first requirement of top 16 at Worlds, not too likely to make top 8 at Europeans, and yet they're keeping this spot, so maybe the requirements really do mean nothing.
2. UZB: Anastasia Gimazetdinova
3. AUS: Cheltzie Lee
4. FRA: Candice Didier, frontrunner over Gwendoline Didier
FI: Jenni Vähämaa is not competing this autumn, so no olympics for her. Two spots left for three fabulous skaters. Could be any two of them.
ITA: I am not so sure about the lock. Valentina Marchei is back!
I think Miki and Mao are locked. I also think that even if Valentina has a great season and wins nationals, Carolina would go instead of her.
Ok... so her are my hopes for the teams with more than one lady:
Japan: Miki Ando, Mao Asada and Yukari Nakano
South Korea: Yu-Na Kim and Na-Young Kim
Canada: Joannie Rochette and Cynthia Phaneuf
USA: Ashley Wagner and Alissa Czisny
Finland: Laura Lepistö and Susanna Pöykiö
Russia: Alena Leonova and Ksenia Makarova
Switzerland: Sarah Meier and another one (I don't know any other Swiss female skaters)
USA : There's no real frontrunner.. at least at this point . It could be any of six to seven girls..
FIN : Like they said. Vahamaa is not competing anymore. So is a three horse race only. My bet is on Lepisto and Korpi.
RUS : Leonova is surely the frontrunner but I wouldn't call her a lock yet. I hope Doronina comes back strond and there's also Katarina Gerboldt with a lot of chances. Martinova is finished since like 2 seasons ago.
SUI : They need to reach a certain high score two times to get sent. The only one capable of such is Meier so Im 90% positive the second spot won't be used.
ITA : I agree that even if Valentina Marchei beats Kostner every time they meet , the federation would still send Carolina.
GER : The german federation needs to get more reasonable with its requirements. It would suck soo much for Dytrt to get refused for the second time. Sarah Hecken could threaten her though.
And according to the ISU page there's only three alternates. So FRA is totally out. A shame.
Didn't Yan Liu (CHN) qualify at Nebelhorn?
I wish the national federations would not set their own requirements, if the skaters qualify spot or spots for their country they should be filled as stipulated by the ISU and not by the National federation, too much bureacracy, I do feel for the skaters if they are declined to go and do not fit the requirements. Isn't it a dream of a lifetime to compete at the Olympics no matter what your standard??
Anyway I can see the first three alternates competing at the Olympics, as SUI team will not send their 2nd spot, and GER and ISR have tough requirements for their skaters to finish (top eight) and (top ten) respectively at the Europeans, Dryrt could acheive this but seems to be make mistakes in the FP.
So, Simaova, Gimazetdinova and Cheltzie Lee should train hard and get themselves ready.
USA - wide open for their spots, I would not recommend anyone. I think 8-9 girls are capable of getting those 2 spots.
CAN - Joannie Rochette yes, I hope the other is Cynthia Phaneuf
KOR - Yu Na Kim and Na Young Kim yes
JPN - Could be wide open here, 5 very strong contenders. I have a feeling that Akiko Suzuki could be the surprise!!
ITA - More than likely Kostner but if she has another Meltdown Marchei could get the place
FIN - Again wide open, shame about Vahamaa (hope she comes back) All 3 can be inconsistent, Korpi is struggling meantally on the FP and Lepisto is in and out, I might go for Poykio for one of the places at the moment as she does have all the jumps in her repertoire, but I could be wrong
RUS - Again wide open, but Leonova does have the confidence at the moment from a great end of season
my feeling is because they usfsa is downplaying sasha injury- and not mentioning the fact about kimmie and her injury and can't get a bye.
is this reason--Sasha is on the Olympic team-even if she doesn't skate at nationals why-the brouhaha that will ensue.
the usfsa doesn't want anyone to know sasha is on the olympic team,
why i feel that is they keep stressing her silver medal and her scores compared to the younger set. which tells me, sasha doesn't have to skate at nationals only petition for the spot and she get it (sasha).why not saying much-is kimmie pulled out to worse injury-no bye to nationals and because she skate in last 2006 to 2008 worlds and she went from 1st to 7th at worlds, they will have a hard time explaining why sasha (presumetitive if she doesn't go to nationals) how she got a spot on the team and kimmie /the skater who went to nationals finished 2nd at nationals didn't. they can cry score all they want. It just slaps favoritism from the start.
KOR : Yu Na Kim, Kwak Min-Jeong (check SusieH post above) - Locked
CAN : Joannie Rochette - Locked, Cynthia Phaneuf - Considering her free skate from NHK, she definitely is the frontrunner for second canadian spot.
JPN: 4 ladies looks probable for Japan team, Ando - Front runner over Suzuki and Mao, recent bad form will not help Nakano in her quest for the olympic spot. I wonder what decision they will take if Mao has another bad skate (i hope she has a good event ) at Japanese championships.
Suguri is in trouble, she is getting not much support internationally and will need to bring the house down at japanese championships with her skating.
USA: Wagner would be a lock if she manages to qualify for GPFs and she is the only one american to do so. Like czsiny if she doesn't have a disaster at US chmpionships she should get a Olympic spot (surely they will consider international result and how they have been judging her).
Second US spot will come down to who has the least down grades, probably Flatt, but i hope it is Nagasu. Only problem with her is she can easily get downgraded on all her triples. Czsiny, Zhang, Cohen (if she competes) and even Hughes should be a factor
FIN :no matter who represents Finland they will be talked about, they are such a beautiful bunch. Kiira Korpi has an advantage over Laura Lepisto. Susanna Poykio had a bad competition at Finlandia an pulled out of Rostelecom cup, so will have to see how she performs in Cup of canada.
The Finns probably will decide their team based on european championships where all three can compete. I believe their are no locks in finnish team.
RUS : Leonova is a definite lock for the russian team considering that her medals at GPs are first by russian ladies in this Olympic cycle. barring an injury she will make team or unless IOC decides to allow 13 years to compete. I was wondering whether Leonova is the only senior lady to land 7 triples this season (including that step out)
Second russian spot is still to fight for, Makarova is slight favorite considering how bad Gozeva, Doronina and Gerbolt have been skating. Makarova beat Marchei and landed 3t+3t in both SP and LP at the international competiton in Nice, and completed 6 triples. I beileve this should definitely help her cause. Russian nationals and Europeans, where russian has 3spots will decide the russian 2nd spot. even if she doesn't make european team considering how others other than leonova has been skating she still get a shot to make the team after the European championships.
SUI; Hope Meier is not injured otherwise a lock , i think they will give up second spot.
GEO: Elene Gedevanishvili - definite lock, i don't think Sakashvili will let a national heroine out of Olympics.
ITA: Carolina Kostner is the favorite, but Marchei scored 143 at Nice and more importantly 157 points in Graz landing 5 triples in LP. I believe Marchei needs to beat Kostner at europeans and Nationals and Hope Kostner hope does not improve any time soon.
GER: Annette Dytrt - hope she is allowed to compete even if she doesn't meet the federation criteria. German can afford to send her.
Last edited by life684; 11-10-2009 at 01:48 PM.
My questions is how would you guys feel is Sasha is named to the Olympic team without competiting at nationals (She petitions for the spot,) the reason the usfsa, whomever give is because of silver medal 4 years ago.
I'd feel very bad for everyone else who actually made the EFFORT to show up. For that reason alone, I'll root for non-Sasha American skater.
Originally Posted by fairly4
After seeing the SA results, I think the US ladies will be Rachael Flatt and Alissa Czisny. I think Rachael is starting to become well liked by the judges, and when compared to Ashley Wagner I'd say Rachael has the edge with more consistency and technical difficulty compared to Ashley's faster skating. As long as Alissa skates decently the judges will reward her with super high PCS and she'll be 1st or 2nd at nationals I bet. The US judges love her, and artistically she is way above the others. Personally, I prefer Zhang and Nagasu to Flatt and Wagner, but the judges always seem to keep their scores down as much as possible...especially Caroline Zhang. Mirai if she rotates her jumps will get good scores, and I really hope she does! But I bet it will be Flatt and Czisny in the end
I just thought of something. If Ashley Wagner goes to the GPF and no other US lady does, will she automatically get to go to the Olympics?
I wish! But no, I'm afraid not. If she bombs Nats she won't be on the US team, despite being the top US lady at the GP. If she skates well; she might get the PCS boost to put her ahead of the others. Though I expect Rachael will receive a simiilar boost.
Now if Ashley *wins* the GPF... maybe she'll be more of a lock then. But how likely is that? Though; we saw Yu Na is vulnerable; and Ashley almost beat Miki (should have beaten Miki according to some) at RC. Probably all Ashley has got is a shot at bronze; but with Rochette and Akiko that's a long shot too. Basically if Ashley gets to the final (cause it could still be Alissa or Caroline...) she should aim to finish fourth or fifth and get a high score. She shouldn't worry about placements but more about pulling out strong performances.
Very, very well thought out, and written post. I always enjoy reading a post that is more about skating than one that is just about a favorite. However, it is important that the PC scores are about the program components - not totally about the performance which we knew of in the 6.0 system. Also, I am not sure, if the PC scores are equal to the Tech scores in the final figuring. Help anyone knows if they are equal.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
an opinion of a skater's performace, is just that, an opinion. it does not cover the scores laid out by the ISU. It does give Ashley as well as Rachael an advantage over Caroline and Alyssa.
You are probably right, I never really thought of that. It just SEEMS like with the new system, the judges can work it to hold up the skaters they like and give the skater's they don't like as much no benefit of the doubt.
Originally Posted by Joesitz
For US ladies, I would say you can pretty much divide the top contenders into two groups.
Group A - Rachael, Ashley, Kimmie (if she competes), Emily (if she improves)
Group B- Alissa, Mirai, Alexe, Caroline (could probably go in either group)
The skaters from group A are generally more consistent, have little technical issues, but artistically aren't as strong as the skaters in group B. The skaters in group B are more artistic and excell in the non-technical elements of the programs at all performances. The skaters in group B however, are more prone to meltdowns.
So here's the thing. Results aside, I think the US should pick a skater from each group to have the best shot at placing well at the olympics. While a skater like Rachael or Ashley you can pretty much count on being in the top 10 at the Olympics, their chances of medaling there are slim. On the flip side, a skater such as Mirai or Alissa could easily finish lower than tenth at the Olympics due to nervous meltdowns or jump issues. While medaling may still be a stretch for either girl, with a great performance, Mirai or Alissa could probably place higher than Rachael or Ashley.
So basically, will the US go with the girls who are consistently good, but somewhat limited, or the girls with possibly greater potential, but who are more prone to mistakes? What do you think?