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Thread: Ladies Roster Presumptive

  1. #16
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairly4 View Post
    My questions is how would you guys feel is Sasha is named to the Olympic team without competiting at nationals (She petitions for the spot,) the reason the usfsa, whomever give is because of silver medal 4 years ago.
    I'd feel very bad for everyone else who actually made the EFFORT to show up. For that reason alone, I'll root for non-Sasha American skater.

  2. #17
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    After seeing the SA results, I think the US ladies will be Rachael Flatt and Alissa Czisny. I think Rachael is starting to become well liked by the judges, and when compared to Ashley Wagner I'd say Rachael has the edge with more consistency and technical difficulty compared to Ashley's faster skating. As long as Alissa skates decently the judges will reward her with super high PCS and she'll be 1st or 2nd at nationals I bet. The US judges love her, and artistically she is way above the others. Personally, I prefer Zhang and Nagasu to Flatt and Wagner, but the judges always seem to keep their scores down as much as possible...especially Caroline Zhang. Mirai if she rotates her jumps will get good scores, and I really hope she does! But I bet it will be Flatt and Czisny in the end

  3. #18
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    I just thought of something. If Ashley Wagner goes to the GPF and no other US lady does, will she automatically get to go to the Olympics?

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    I wish! But no, I'm afraid not. If she bombs Nats she won't be on the US team, despite being the top US lady at the GP. If she skates well; she might get the PCS boost to put her ahead of the others. Though I expect Rachael will receive a simiilar boost.

    Now if Ashley *wins* the GPF... maybe she'll be more of a lock then. But how likely is that? Though; we saw Yu Na is vulnerable; and Ashley almost beat Miki (should have beaten Miki according to some) at RC. Probably all Ashley has got is a shot at bronze; but with Rochette and Akiko that's a long shot too. Basically if Ashley gets to the final (cause it could still be Alissa or Caroline...) she should aim to finish fourth or fifth and get a high score. She shouldn't worry about placements but more about pulling out strong performances.

  5. #20
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    While Japan must select 3 of their many fine skaters, the US has only 2.

    I can not believe the USFS will not select Rachael after winning over the phenonaman YuNa in the LP at SA. It's just about a given.Only a total meltdown at US Nats will bring up questions about Rachael.

    Although SC results will give the USFS an idea who can be the 2nd skater, I think it will be left to decide by the US Nats. Pressure, pressure for Mirai, Alyssa, and Caroline.

  6. #21
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    ^^And Ashley! (As a die hard fan I have to defend her). I still believe she has as good a shot as any of the US Ladies to win Nats and make the Olympic team. Go Ashley!!!

  7. #22
    Custom Title Joesitz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    After seeing the SA results, I think the US ladies will be Rachael Flatt and Alissa Czisny. I think Rachael is starting to become well liked by the judges, and when compared to Ashley Wagner I'd say Rachael has the edge with more consistency and technical difficulty compared to Ashley's faster skating. As long as Alissa skates decently the judges will reward her with super high PCS and she'll be 1st or 2nd at nationals I bet. The US judges love her, and artistically she is way above the others. Personally, I prefer Zhang and Nagasu to Flatt and Wagner, but the judges always seem to keep their scores down as much as possible...especially Caroline Zhang. Mirai if she rotates her jumps will get good scores, and I really hope she does! But I bet it will be Flatt and Czisny in the end
    Very, very well thought out, and written post. I always enjoy reading a post that is more about skating than one that is just about a favorite. However, it is important that the PC scores are about the program components - not totally about the performance which we knew of in the 6.0 system. Also, I am not sure, if the PC scores are equal to the Tech scores in the final figuring. Help anyone knows if they are equal.

    an opinion of a skater's performace, is just that, an opinion. it does not cover the scores laid out by the ISU. It does give Ashley as well as Rachael an advantage over Caroline and Alyssa.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joesitz View Post
    an opinion of a skater's performace, is just that, an opinion. it does not cover the scores laid out by the ISU. It does give Ashley as well as Rachael an advantage over Caroline and Alyssa.
    You are probably right, I never really thought of that. It just SEEMS like with the new system, the judges can work it to hold up the skaters they like and give the skater's they don't like as much no benefit of the doubt.

    For US ladies, I would say you can pretty much divide the top contenders into two groups.

    Group A - Rachael, Ashley, Kimmie (if she competes), Emily (if she improves)

    Group B- Alissa, Mirai, Alexe, Caroline (could probably go in either group)

    The skaters from group A are generally more consistent, have little technical issues, but artistically aren't as strong as the skaters in group B. The skaters in group B are more artistic and excell in the non-technical elements of the programs at all performances. The skaters in group B however, are more prone to meltdowns.

    So here's the thing. Results aside, I think the US should pick a skater from each group to have the best shot at placing well at the olympics. While a skater like Rachael or Ashley you can pretty much count on being in the top 10 at the Olympics, their chances of medaling there are slim. On the flip side, a skater such as Mirai or Alissa could easily finish lower than tenth at the Olympics due to nervous meltdowns or jump issues. While medaling may still be a stretch for either girl, with a great performance, Mirai or Alissa could probably place higher than Rachael or Ashley.

    So basically, will the US go with the girls who are consistently good, but somewhat limited, or the girls with possibly greater potential, but who are more prone to mistakes? What do you think?

  9. #24
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    For US, Rachael Flatt seems to be the most promising for the spot at this moment. I can't see how Emily Hughes will be any possibility after a poor show at GP in these last couple years. She has taken off school this year to train full time, still unable to make much progress. She is running out of time. My guess is it will come down to who skates better at the Nationals; Zhang, Nagasu, Czisny, or Wagner.

  10. #25
    she takes the audience on her journey of emotions Layfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    You are probably right, I never really thought of that. It just SEEMS like with the new system, the judges can work it to hold up the skaters they like and give the skater's they don't like as much no benefit of the doubt.

    For US ladies, I would say you can pretty much divide the top contenders into two groups.

    Group A - Rachael, Ashley, Kimmie (if she competes), Emily (if she improves)

    Group B- Alissa, Mirai, Alexe, Caroline (could probably go in either group)

    The skaters from group A are generally more consistent, have little technical issues, but artistically aren't as strong as the skaters in group B. The skaters in group B are more artistic and excell in the non-technical elements of the programs at all performances. The skaters in group B however, are more prone to meltdowns.

    So here's the thing. Results aside, I think the US should pick a skater from each group to have the best shot at placing well at the olympics. While a skater like Rachael or Ashley you can pretty much count on being in the top 10 at the Olympics, their chances of medaling there are slim. On the flip side, a skater such as Mirai or Alissa could easily finish lower than tenth at the Olympics due to nervous meltdowns or jump issues. While medaling may still be a stretch for either girl, with a great performance, Mirai or Alissa could probably place higher than Rachael or Ashley.

    So basically, will the US go with the girls who are consistently good, but somewhat limited, or the girls with possibly greater potential, but who are more prone to mistakes? What do you think?
    I agree with your analysis of which of the Americans would place highest at the Olympics IF they skate their best. But I don't think that is the way the US will choose. Because they all have weaknesses (and a tendency to have a meltdown is a huge weakness) the US will simply send the top 2 finishers I realize they can play around with the PCS to favor one skater or another but I really think that this time, it will come down to who has the cleanest skate. If not ... well there should be an interesting uproar.

    Also, I used to think that Rachael of Ashley, even at their best, didn't have much of a chance to medal at the Olympics barring impressive meltdowns by yuna, rochette, ect. But now I'm having my doubts. This is not because I think Rachael and Ashley have shown amazing improvements but because the other skaters of the world haven't been as impressive as I thought they would be. Ando won both of her GP events but showed she is vulnerable and, I'd say, beatable by several of the American ladies. Same thing with Rochette. And then there's Mao's meltdown. So who is left? No one the American ladies aren't capable of beating, IMO. My hopes of the Americans medaling have risen, that's for sure.

  11. #26
    GoldExpress reynycpr's Avatar
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    JPN: Well for whatever reason, I have to think Mao is a lock. I just can't see her off the team. I would even go as far to say Miki is a lock as well 3rd spot for me is between Akiko and Nakano.

    Unfortunately I feel that Fumie has slim chances. Considering that this federation also takes into account GP performances, I would say Fumie is at an disadvantage. She is the only top lady from JPN that did not pick up a medal during the GP. (Mao: 2nd TEB, Nakano: 3rd TEB, Akiko: 1st COC, Miki: 1st COR & NHK). But I wouldn't be surprised if Fumie does finish in the top 3 at Nationals.

    CAN: Joannie is a lock. Before Skate Canada, I also thought Cynthia was a lock for the 2nd spot, but now after her horrid FS this past weekend, I'm starting to doubt it.... :(

    ITA: Carolina is a lock.

    FIN: Korpi and Lepisto have proven (that no matter how they skate), Judges love them, and Finland knows it. Lepisto has a Bronze from Skate Canada, and Korpi has a Silver from Cup of China. Although Poykio finished with the Bronze at last years (weak field) Euros, sadly I don't think her 10th at Finlandia and 11th at Skate America will help much with her Olympic bid...and I love them all.

    USA: This is tough! I LOVE Alissa, but I do believe that Wagner and Flatt are the front-runners heading into Spokane... and not just for Olympic spots, but for the Title as well.

    Wagner: Is the only American lady to pick a medal at both her GPs and she qualified for the final.

    Flatt: Although did not qualify for final, she did manage to beat Kim in the LP at SA and secure herself a Silver as well (although her skating bores me to tears), she also has the highest free skate and overall total of the U.S. ladies so far this season.

    Czisny: 1st at Nelbelhorn, 4th @ COR and 2nd at SC.

    I know its not much and I know strange things have happened this season so far...but I still find it interesting that Czisny has the highest SP score this season of the U.S. ladies, and 4th overall: (Kim has the top 2, 76.28 & 76.08, followed by Rochette 70.00, Czisny 63.52, Mirai 62.20, Korpi 61.20, & Kostner 61.12).

    As much as I would love to see Alissa in Van.; I also have to think about which skaters are more likely to bring in the best results at the Olympics. And again...had Czisny finished top 8 at worlds last year, there would be 3 spots instead of just 2 :-(
    Everyone has seen her pull off the great short program, But its Czisny's free skate that have many concerned....
    Last edited by reynycpr; 11-24-2009 at 07:34 PM.

  12. #27
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    Germany

    The German Lady at the Olympic Winter Games will be Sarah Hecken.

    She is the only one who meets the criteria of the DOSB (German Olympic Comitte). The ladies have to receive more than 128 Points twice, out of 3 international competitions.

    So we will have a talented 16 year old girl, who will have a wunderful time there and can learn a lot of things out of the experience of her first Olympic Games.

    Because of the Qualification for the Olympics, Sarah will participate at the Europeans too. The second German lady will be the best eligable lady at the German Championships.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meli_Huber View Post
    The German Lady at the Olympic Winter Games will be Sarah Hecken.

    She is the only one who meets the criteria of the DOSB (German Olympic Comitte). The ladies have to receive more than 128 Points twice, out of 3 international competitions.

    So we will have a talented 16 year old girl, who will have a wunderful time there and can learn a lot of things out of the experience of her first Olympic Games.

    Because of the Qualification for the Olympics, Sarah will participate at the Europeans too. The second German lady will be the best eligable lady at the German Championships.
    I love Sarah! She is adorable and her triple-triple is very high! At 16 and 5'7" she is definitely impressive....just needs to work on her spiral and she will be great! Plus I love her LP dress, so cute, even though it looks like a hot fudge sundae

  14. #29
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    Miki Ando finished before Akkiko Suzuki and also medal, therefore she is locked for an Olympic spot.
    Yukari, Fumie, and Akkiko will battle out the final spot in Nationals.
    I personally think Fumie might be able to place higher than both Yukari and Akkiko due to JSF's favoritism to her, but it terms of actually chances of getting a medal, Yukari might squeeze past Akkiko and Fumie.

    However Akkiko did show us a stunning free program in GPF. so its going to be nailbiterrrr.

  15. #30
    Custom Title Nadia01's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Dipyramidal;438084]Miki Ando finished before Akkiko Suzuki and also medal, therefore she is locked for an Olympic spot.
    Yukari, Fumie, and Akkiko will battle out the final spot in Nationals.
    I personally think Fumie might be able to place higher than both Yukari and Akkiko due to JSF's favoritism to her, but it terms of actually chances of getting a medal, Yukari might squeeze past Akkiko and Fumie.

    However Akkiko did show us a stunning free program in GPF. so its going to be nailbiterrrr. /QUOTE]

    JSF has 2 more spots left.

    Mao hasn't earned one yet. Unless she does a decent showing, she may not be able to get a spot, esp. given how many talented skaters Japan has right now.

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