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Thread: Who's In the Grand Prix Final – PAIRS

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    Who's In the Grand Prix Final – PAIRS

    So, I've got time to waste (aka – I don't want to wash dishes yet) and this has been on my mind somewhat after today's Bompard competition.

    How common is it for competitiors to see each other so consistently? You've got S/S, M/T and D/D at the same competitions; P/T and K/S at the same competitions; S/Z, Z/Z and V/M (Ukr) at the same competitions. It seems wierd to me. I get that the top three don't see each other (ditto next three), but it does seem odd how it worked out. It seems primed for a major cluster of scores in the standings as well. So who makes the final?

    I think Kavaguti/Smirnov and Shen/Zhao are the most likely (though, frankly, I would've included Savchenko/Szolkowy before today). Both are likely to win both competitions (tempting fate here, I know) and get the top: 30 points each.

    Then it gets tricky. If the aforementioned happens, it'll likely be P/T and Z/Z coming in second (Z/Z really do own the second place spot, don't they? Second at the Grand Prix Final three of the past four seasons. Second at worlds 3 of the last 4 times. Second at the last Nationals they competed in. Second at the Olympics). So they get 26 points. It's unlikely that V/M beat Z/Z at either competition, but it wouldn't be shocking to see them lose to M/B or D/B.

    Skate Canada is what throws a major wrench into matters. While M/T won TEB on both marks, it's worth mentioning that D/D's program has a higher base value and that's likely true of S/S if they were to do the program they planned (whereas I think M/T maxed out right out the gate). Now, if M/T is either first or second, it doesn't matter, they get 30 or 28 points and jump into the GPF. But lets say they get third, with S/S winning, D/D in second (which seems eminently reasonably). Then we have five teams coming in with 26 points. M/T and S/S make the finals based on the first place and TEB and (hypothetical) SC respectively, and then it becomes all about the scores. If D/D win SC (about as unlikely as them beating S/S), again, they get 28 points overall, but I wouldn't bet on that occuring.

    So, in short.....

    30 points: Kavaguti/Smirnov; Shen and Zhao
    28 points: None
    26 points: Pang/Tong; Savchenko/Szolkowy; Murkhtova/Trankov; Zhang/Zhang; Dube Davison (S/S and M/T make it to GPF based on first tiebreaker, Pang/Tong and Zhang/Zhang make it due to second), D/D become the first alternates

    Anyone else want to try? Or just sit back and see how I wrong I am in the end.

  2. #2
    Sexy, smart and sterilized! childfreegirl's Avatar
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    Are you kidding me??????? Only one event is finished! Are you just extremely bored?

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    Quote Originally Posted by childfreegirl View Post
    Are you kidding me??????? Only one event is finished! Are you just extremely bored?
    If I said yes would you judge me less?

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    Sexy, smart and sterilized! childfreegirl's Avatar
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    I was just making an observation. And it's not just you. I get irritated every time I see anyone trying to predict anything that far out. Olympic medal speculation how many months in advance??? Geez! It's just not realistic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by childfreegirl View Post
    I was just making an observation. And it's not just you. I get irritated every time I see anyone trying to predict anything that far out. Olympic medal speculation how many months in advance??? Geez! It's just not realistic.
    Don't worry, I took it (partially) in jest. And realism isn't the goal. Having fun thinking about skating is.

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    30 points: Kavaguti/Smirnov; Shen and Zhao

    oh dear ,,are you kidding,,,,I think MT is Russia federation's fav now,,,,not K/S anymore.........

    you can see from K/S's PCS last weekend.....

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    I wasn't kidding, but I was clearly wrong.

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    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
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    Congrats to Pang/Tong and Kavaguti/Smirnov for making the GPF in pairs! Hope it's a successful season for them!!

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    With one event left, this has become very interesting.

    I assumed that Zhang/Zhang would easily beat V/M in Skate America, thus giving us four teams going into Skate Canada. But now we have...

    1. Three teams in the finals: K/S, P/T and S/Z

    2. M/T need top four to assure themselves a place in the final. D/D need top two. S/S need first. As do Denney/Barrett.

    3. If D/D gets third or S/S gets second, it'll come down to point differentials.

  10. #10
    Rinkside
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    With one event left, this has become very interesting.

    I assumed that Zhang/Zhang would easily beat V/M in Skate America, thus giving us four teams going into Skate Canada. But now we have...

    1. Three teams in the finals: K/S, P/T and S/Z

    2. M/T need top four to assure themselves a place in the final. D/D need top two. S/S need first. As do Denney/Barrett.

    3. If D/D gets third or S/S gets second, it'll come down to point differentials.
    I thought I'd add to this post and get some concrete numbersof point differentials down regarding the scenario of D/D, S/S, Z/Z and V/M all having 24 points with second and third placements:

    If D/D get 3rd, they need >173.71 points at SC (along with 180.97 at TEB) to attain more points than Z/Z (354.68 total points for the grand prix) and make the GPF

    If S/S get 2nd, they need >180.26 points at SC (along with 174.42 at TEB) to attain more points than Z/Z (354.68 total points for the grand prix) and make the GPF

    If D/D and S/S get less than 161.64 and 168.19 points respectively, then V/M (with 342.61total points for the grand prix) will make the GPF along with Z/Z

    These point totals are very reachable for both D/D and S/S. They are well below their personal bests, so one would expect them to achieve these kinds of marks. D/D can achieve that by skating worse than they did at TEB, where they scored over the 180-mark. S/S will have to skate way better than their last outing, but one would assume that they wouldn't make those silly mistakes again.

    In conclusion: Z/Z's and V/M's chances don't look so great to make the final...BUT you never know - if we've learned anything from this season thus far, expectations and reality are completely different things!

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Here's the list:

    http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2009/gpspairs.htm

    1 Xue SHEN / Hongbo ZHAO CHN 15 15 30 1 402.37 2 255.73 128.69 146.64 15
    2 Qing PANG / Jian TONG CHN 15 15 30 1 390.98 2 258.28 132.35 132.70 16
    3 Maria MUKHORTOVA / Maxim TRANKOV RUS 15 13 28 1 378.64 2 245.96 126.05 132.68 16
    4 Aliona SAVCHENKO / Robin SZOLKOWY GER 11 15 26 1 381.13 2 233.99 132.55 147.14 16
    5 Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV RUS 13 13 26 2 373.19 2 242.67 124.15 130.52 16
    6 Dan ZHANG / Hao ZHANG CHN 13 11 24 2 354.68 2 235.92 124.57 118.76 15

    PLACE 7 - 9: SUBSTITUTE FOR THE ISU GRAND PRIX OF FIGURE SKATING FINAL

    7 Jessica DUBE / Bryce DAVISON CAN 13 11 24 2 347.90 2 225.46 116.43 122.44 16
    8 Tatiana VOLOSOZHAR / Stanislav MOROZOV UKR 11 13 24 2 342.61 2 217.93 110.12 124.68 15
    9 Keauna McLAUGHLIN / Rockne BRUBAKER USA 11 9 20 3 325.92 2 206.04 106.83 119.88 15

    10 Rena INOUE / John BALDWIN USA 9 11 20 3 317.14 2 209.56 106.26 107.58 16
    11 Caydee DENNEY / Jeremy BARRETT USA 9 7 16 4 308.52 2 197.86 101.63 110.66 16

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