Ladies SP

[R.D.]

The thing is risk taking is fine. But if your going to do an element you should be at least consistent with the element. People were saying that Mao was 50/50 with her 3axel in practice. That's not a great record at all. It's probably worth it to attempt it once, but three times? No.

So (a little stats here) assuming a 50% success rate, and that each jump attempt is independent of the other, her chances of landing all three are .5*.5*.5= .125 = 12.5%. In other words, it is 1- .125 = 87.5% that she will botch AT LEAST one of them. Not very good odds if you ask me.

[Tesla]

I don't think the problem with Mao is the coach. I think Mao is so bound and determined to do three triple axels that she's ignoring everything else.

[Mikoto]

If Mao will keep skating like this, I won't be suprised even if she'd be defeated by three of Miki, Yukari, Akiko, Fumie.

[DarkestMoon]

But is the issue her COACH, or is it the fact that she is putting so much emphasis on the 3A that it's draining her and taking her out of the running?

She might be able to keep her current coach and just change the SP, eliminate the 3A in it, try only 1 3A (or none at all) in the FS and she'll be fine.

According to some of her fans, the reason there is so much emphasis on the 3A is because it's her signature jump against Yuna's 3-3s. Seriously, delivering clean performances should be her focus not the 3A.

[SerpentineSteps]

So (a little stats here) assuming a 50% success rate, and that each jump attempt is independent of the other, her chances of landing all three are .5*.5*.5= .125 = 12.5%. In other words, it is 1- .125 = 87.5% that she will botch AT LEAST one of them. Not very good odds if you ask me.

I think the more appropriate metric here would be to calculate the expected outcome (i.e. the score she gets) versus that of a more safer alternative, and then applying some sort of risk metric to assess the overall merit of the three-3A plan.

Obviously not going to do it here, though, since I'm at work... haha.

[ayayukiituka]

F-I-R-E TATIANA TARASOVA!

Ever since Mao's been with her it's been nothing but failure, one after another after another.

If there's a petition going around to fire TAT, I'll be the first one to sign.

That's it, I've had enough!

Does anybody have the email address to the JSF?

here is an e-mail address to JSF
jsf@skatingjapan.or.jp
please send an e-mail about what you thought on Mao to JSF.
for example she should hire jump coach or not try 3a more than once in competetion programs and so on.
her sp today remained me of Miki 4 years ago...i don't want to see like Miki's poor olimpic anymore

[R.D.]

I think the more appropriate metric here would be to calculate the expected outcome (i.e. the score she gets) versus that of a more safer alternative, and then applying some sort of risk metric to assess the overall merit of the three-3A plan.

You're absolutely right, if you really want to mathematically figure out the best strategy for the situation. But I was just doing it the quick, easy way to illustrate a point. There are tons of other X-factors and assumptions (that aren't true in reality) that have to be made.

[DarkestMoon]

I don't think the problem with Mao is the coach. I think Mao is so bound and determined to do three triple axels that she's ignoring everything else.

Maybe the only way to get Mao to abandon the crazy plan with 3As is to unfortunately lose the competition badly.

[SerpentineSteps]

You're absolutely right, if you really want to mathematically figure out the best strategy for the situation. But I was just doing it the quick, easy way to illustrate a point.

Totally. I would have also done it your quick way, given that my boss's desk is like 5 yards from mine, had you not gotten to it!

[museksk8r]

Actually, quite the contrary, I read on a translation of a Japanese article that TAT had been trying to persuade Mao to drop at least one of the 3As and that it was at Mao's insistence that the long program contained two.

I believe that. Mao has an unfortunate obsession with the 3Axel jump. She has many times in press conferences referred to it as her "weapon." Ironically, it's the weapon that's shooting her in the foot everytime.

[Nadine]

It's not about a GPF or a podium finish.

It's all about the skate. It's about how she skates. Not a medal.

And I'm personally tired of hearing about UR calls, wrong edge calls, et al.

Mao had her two best FS ever at 2007 Worlds & 2008 4CC with UR 3/3 combos. & a wrong edge lutz. Now is not the time to be fiddling around changing her technique which she has always had.

Just like people like to gripe about Caroline Zhang (rightfully so; after the Olympics she can work on her technique), but what she has now is what is placing her above ALL the American girls, even Rachael Flatt! She outskated her at 2009 WTT.

Ditto with Mao (to a lesser extent). I say Mao should bring back her old 3/3 combos. & triple lutz, et al. Use the technique she's comfortable with. Now is not the time to change it. It has won her competitions in the past & it can do so again.

Wait until next summer to work on perfecting her technique.

JMHO.

[R.D.]

Totally. I would have also done it your quick way, given that my boss's desk is like 5 yards from mine, had you not gotten to it!

And the most important point: the desired outcome might differ by event as well! In other words, while 60 points would put you in a comfortable leading position at COR, at TEB (and I'm guessing the Olys will be the same way) 60 points would put you in a massive hole behind the leader!

So therefore, there is no one "optimal strategy"- it would have to be re-calculated for every event based on competition and strength of jumps.

[PftJump]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8KbOXVA7RQ

51 is too high for her performance...

[demarinis5]

And the most important point: the desired outcome might differ by event as well! In other words, while 60 points would put you in a comfortable leading position at COR, at TEB (and I'm guessing the Olys will be the same way) 60 points would put you in a massive hole behind the leader!

So true. This FS competition will be much more exciting for me. No clear winner for sure after what unfolded today in the SP competition.

Wishing all the ladies good luck tomorrow.

[SerpentineSteps]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8KbOXVA7RQ

51 is too high for her performance...

Let's wait for the protocols, but remember that half of the score is made up of pure skating/interprative/etc. skills that have nothing to do with whether she fell on her jumps or not.