Page 18 of 26 FirstFirst ... 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 LastLast
Results 256 to 270 of 390

Thread: Ladies SP

  1. #256
    Down With It
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    13,554
    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc View Post
    The thing is risk taking is fine. But if your going to do an element you should be at least consistent with the element. People were saying that Mao was 50/50 with her 3axel in practice. That's not a great record at all. It's probably worth it to attempt it once, but three times? No.
    So (a little stats here) assuming a 50% success rate, and that each jump attempt is independent of the other, her chances of landing all three are .5*.5*.5= .125 = 12.5%. In other words, it is 1- .125 = 87.5% that she will botch AT LEAST one of them. Not very good odds if you ask me.

  2. #257
    Whippet Good!
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    674
    I don't think the problem with Mao is the coach. I think Mao is so bound and determined to do three triple axels that she's ignoring everything else.

  3. #258
    On the Ice
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Nagoya
    Posts
    46
    If Mao will keep skating like this, I won't be suprised even if she'd be defeated by three of Miki, Yukari, Akiko, Fumie.

  4. #259
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    440
    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    But is the issue her COACH, or is it the fact that she is putting so much emphasis on the 3A that it's draining her and taking her out of the running?

    She might be able to keep her current coach and just change the SP, eliminate the 3A in it, try only 1 3A (or none at all) in the FS and she'll be fine.
    According to some of her fans, the reason there is so much emphasis on the 3A is because it's her signature jump against Yuna's 3-3s. Seriously, delivering clean performances should be her focus not the 3A.

  5. #260
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    454
    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    So (a little stats here) assuming a 50% success rate, and that each jump attempt is independent of the other, her chances of landing all three are .5*.5*.5= .125 = 12.5%. In other words, it is 1- .125 = 87.5% that she will botch AT LEAST one of them. Not very good odds if you ask me.
    I think the more appropriate metric here would be to calculate the expected outcome (i.e. the score she gets) versus that of a more safer alternative, and then applying some sort of risk metric to assess the overall merit of the three-3A plan.

    Obviously not going to do it here, though, since I'm at work... haha.

  6. #261
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    tokyo
    Posts
    239
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadine View Post
    F-I-R-E TATIANA TARASOVA!

    Ever since Mao's been with her it's been nothing but failure, one after another after another.

    If there's a petition going around to fire TAT, I'll be the first one to sign.

    That's it, I've had enough!

    Does anybody have the email address to the JSF?
    here is an e-mail address to JSF
    jsf@skatingjapan.or.jp
    please send an e-mail about what you thought on Mao to JSF.
    for example she should hire jump coach or not try 3a more than once in competetion programs and so on.
    her sp today remained me of Miki 4 years ago...i don't want to see like Miki's poor olimpic anymore

  7. #262
    Down With It
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    13,554
    Quote Originally Posted by SerpentineSteps View Post
    I think the more appropriate metric here would be to calculate the expected outcome (i.e. the score she gets) versus that of a more safer alternative, and then applying some sort of risk metric to assess the overall merit of the three-3A plan.
    You're absolutely right, if you really want to mathematically figure out the best strategy for the situation. But I was just doing it the quick, easy way to illustrate a point. There are tons of other X-factors and assumptions (that aren't true in reality) that have to be made.

  8. #263
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    440
    Quote Originally Posted by Tesla View Post
    I don't think the problem with Mao is the coach. I think Mao is so bound and determined to do three triple axels that she's ignoring everything else.
    Maybe the only way to get Mao to abandon the crazy plan with 3As is to unfortunately lose the competition badly.

  9. #264
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    454
    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    You're absolutely right, if you really want to mathematically figure out the best strategy for the situation. But I was just doing it the quick, easy way to illustrate a point.
    Totally. I would have also done it your quick way, given that my boss's desk is like 5 yards from mine, had you not gotten to it!

  10. #265
    "Hold an edge and look sexy!" museksk8r's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Storybrooke, Maine
    Posts
    3,674
    Quote Originally Posted by bmelanie View Post


    Actually, quite the contrary, I read on a translation of a Japanese article that TAT had been trying to persuade Mao to drop at least one of the 3As and that it was at Mao's insistence that the long program contained two.
    I believe that. Mao has an unfortunate obsession with the 3Axel jump. She has many times in press conferences referred to it as her "weapon." Ironically, it's the weapon that's shooting her in the foot everytime.

  11. #266
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    4,221
    It's not about a GPF or a podium finish.

    It's all about the skate. It's about how she skates. Not a medal.

    And I'm personally tired of hearing about UR calls, wrong edge calls, et al.

    Mao had her two best FS ever at 2007 Worlds & 2008 4CC with UR 3/3 combos. & a wrong edge lutz. Now is not the time to be fiddling around changing her technique which she has always had.

    Just like people like to gripe about Caroline Zhang (rightfully so; after the Olympics she can work on her technique), but what she has now is what is placing her above ALL the American girls, even Rachael Flatt! She outskated her at 2009 WTT.

    Ditto with Mao (to a lesser extent). I say Mao should bring back her old 3/3 combos. & triple lutz, et al. Use the technique she's comfortable with. Now is not the time to change it. It has won her competitions in the past & it can do so again.

    Wait until next summer to work on perfecting her technique.

    JMHO.

  12. #267
    Down With It
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    13,554
    Quote Originally Posted by SerpentineSteps View Post
    Totally. I would have also done it your quick way, given that my boss's desk is like 5 yards from mine, had you not gotten to it!
    And the most important point: the desired outcome might differ by event as well! In other words, while 60 points would put you in a comfortable leading position at COR, at TEB (and I'm guessing the Olys will be the same way) 60 points would put you in a massive hole behind the leader!

    So therefore, there is no one "optimal strategy"- it would have to be re-calculated for every event based on competition and strength of jumps.
    Last edited by R.D.; 10-23-2009 at 12:26 PM.

  13. #268
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    158

    Post Here is MAO's SP in Russia

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8KbOXVA7RQ

    51 is too high for her performance...

  14. #269
    Custom Title demarinis5's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    5,134
    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    And the most important point: the desired outcome might differ by event as well! In other words, while 60 points would put you in a comfortable leading position at COR, at TEB (and I'm guessing the Olys will be the same way) 60 points would put you in a massive hole behind the leader!
    So true. This FS competition will be much more exciting for me. No clear winner for sure after what unfolded today in the SP competition.

    Wishing all the ladies good luck tomorrow.

  15. #270
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    New York, NY
    Posts
    454
    Quote Originally Posted by PftJump View Post
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8KbOXVA7RQ

    51 is too high for her performance...
    Let's wait for the protocols, but remember that half of the score is made up of pure skating/interprative/etc. skills that have nothing to do with whether she fell on her jumps or not.

Page 18 of 26 FirstFirst ... 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •