Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Who's In the Grand Prix Final - Dance
18 couples have competed so far in two events, and so far the eliminations have been determined by complete withdrawal from the series while noone surprising has been knocked out, though for a couple of teams its become a little harder. Analyses of those competed so far:
Trophée Eric Bombard Top Four:
1. Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir-Should win Skate Canada and then it's only a question of whether they win the Finale or not.
2. Nathalie Pechélat & Fabian Bourzat-Mathematically they need to win Skate Canada in order to seal it, which ain't gonna happen. However, with a strong likelihood that three teams will share the six golds between them, two silvers should get them in no problem at all. For that they would need to beat Faiella & Scali, which they did at Worlds, but they've lost to more often than not even so. Still would have a good chance if they won bronze, where their only real competition is Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates, and them barely, so unless they have a bad competition, it's either silver and in or, perhaps slightly more likely, bronze and as the chips fall.
3. Sinead & John Kerr-Would need to win NHK to seal it, which isn't too likely with Meryl and Charlie there. However, their only remote competition for silver is Vanessa Crone and Paul Poirier, who've had a disappointment already not making the podium at the Rostelecom Cup. Most likely they take silver and hope.
4. Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates-To have a chance they'd need to win Skate Canada, where they'd need to do a lot better than they've done to even take silver.
Rostelecom Cup Top Four:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-need only medal at NHK, where there isn't even much competition for gold.
2. Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte-Mathematically would have to win Skate America, and beating Tanith and Ben is not likely for them. Two silvers would still get them in, but even for that, they'd need to beat Khoklova & Novitski, which doesn't seem likely either. They could do bronze, if they could hold off the Zaretskis and Navarro & Bommentre, both of them they would be heavily favored over, but then they would probably be in the back of the score tiebreaker.
3. Ekaterina Rubleva & Ivan Shefer-Both events done, out with 5th at Trophée Eric Bombard.
4. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirer-Same situation as Samuelson & Bates, only substitute NHK Trophy for Skate Canada.
Knocked out, but ghost of a chance of still factoring in:
Kimberly Navarro & Brent Bommentre-6th at Trophée Eric Bombard, only miniscule chance of changing someone's fate at Skate America, but still more chance than anyone else finishing 5th or below so far
Katherine Copely & Devidas Stagniunas-8th at Rostelecom Cup, wouldn't even list them as confusing things at Skate Canada but there's noone else to list
Contenders yet to skate:
Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto
Jana Khokhova & Sergei Novitski
Frederica Faiella & Massimo Scali
"Hold an edge and look sexy!"
Wicked Yankee Girl
GPF standing before Skate America
1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 15 15 30 1 403.07 2 201.81 101.02 125.30 19
2 Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 11 13 24 2 354.84 2 172.41 86.25 111.26 20
3 Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER CAN 9 11 20 3 322.89 2 163.12 84.51 99.32 19
4 Ekaterina RUBLEVA / Ivan SHEFER RUS 7 11 18 3 318.86 2 163.37 82.07 98.04 19
5 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 15 X 15 1 197.71 1 97.39 97.39 61.91 10
6 Tanith BELBIN / Benjamin AGOSTO USA 15 X 15 1 194.51 1 95.85 95.85 60.33 9
7 Anna ZADOROZHNIUK / Sergei VERBILLO UKR 9 5 14 4 312.70 2 154.37 78.44 99.23 19
8 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 13 X 13 2 181.64 1 89.77 89.77 56.34 10
9 Jana KHOKHLOVA / Sergei NOVITSKI RUS 13 X 13 2 180.57 1 87.79 87.79 56.48 9
10 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 13 X 13 2 168.57 1 83.26 83.26 52.58 9
11 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI ITA 11 X 11 3 179.92 1 89.96 89.96 54.59 9
12 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN 4 7 11 5 306.30 2 152.99 77.79 96.67 19
13 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 9 X 9 4 160.01 1 80.78 80.78 47.51 10
14 Emily SAMUELSON / Evan BATES USA 9 X 9 4 158.07 1 80.41 80.41 46.55 10
15 Alexandra ZARETSKI / Roman ZARETSKI ISR 7 X 7 5 156.86 1 79.03 79.03 46.95 9
16 Anastasia PLATONOVA / Alexander GRACHEV RUS 7 7 5 153.22 1 77.41 77.41 47.88 9
17 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 5 X 5 6 151.87 1 80.36 80.36 41.11 9
18 Kimberly NAVARRO / Brent BOMMENTRE USA 5 X 5 6 150.29 1 72.93 72.93 48.17 10
Of the teams who have skated two events, only D&W have clinched a spot. The Kerrs are on the bubble with 24 points, a first tie breaker of second, and a total point score (2nd tie breaker) of 354.84 .
Tanith & Ben and Tessa & Scott, even if they lose at their events (which is not happening), have a first tie breaker of first. There is no way for 4 teams to pass them for the second and third GPF spot with Meryl and Charlie. That leaves 3 spots to fill.
If Antarctica doesn't melt, we'll have:
D&W 30 points, V&M 30 points, B&A 30 points
P&B have a second place and 181.64 towards the 2nd tie breaker already. To beat Kerrs,
K&N have a second place and 180.57 towards the 2nd tie breaker already
C&L have a second place and 168.57 towards the 2nd tie breaker already
Kerrs have a second place and 24 points total and 354.84
SA: B&A, K&N, and C&L. For K&N to make the final over the Kerrs, they have to have a total score of more than 174.27 and be 3rd, or be second with 26 points. Either way, it sounds very likely . C&L have to be 3rd and score 186.27, or finish 2nd, to give them a total of 26 points. Either way, it doesn't sound likely unless B&A withdraw. C&L only scored 168.57 at CoR. For B&A to lose to the Kerrs, they would have to finish 4th, which is not happening. They might, however, withdraw. Any team might.
SC: V&M, P&B, F&S, Bobrova&Soloviev & S&B
Similarly, For V&M to lose to the Kerrs, they would have to finish 4th, which is not happening. They might, however, withdraw. Any team might.
For P&B to beat the Kerrs, they either have to finish second, or be 3rd with at least 173.2 points. They scored over 181 points at TEB, so this seems very likely, even if they fail in an element.
For F&S to beat the Kerrs, they have to finish second (24 points) and score more than 174.92 points. That's possible, since they scored more than that at CoC, but they would still have to beat P&B for it to happen.
So it looks to me like the GPF lineup is, barring illness or withdrawal by the top teams:
D&W, V&M, B&A, 30 points
P&B 26 points or 24 points
K&N 26 points or 24 points
F&S 24 points, if the finish 2nd at SC and score more than 174.92
C&L 26 points, or 24 points (3rd place at SA) provided they score more than 186.27 points at SA (This seems very unlikely, either way)
Kerrs, if F&S either don't finish second, or if they do finish second but score less than 174.92.
Whether or not the Kerrs make their first GPF depends pretty much entirely on P&B beating F&S at Skate Canada.
Wicked Yankee Girl
Obviously global warming melted Antarctica.
Consequently, we have D&W, B&A, and C&L locked for the GPF.
The top team, other than those, who have skated 2 events is the Kerrs with 24 points..
4 Sinead KERR / John KERR GBR 11 13 24 2 354.84 2 172.41 86.25 111.26 20
9 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 15 X 15 1 197.71 1 97.39 97.39 61.91 10
11 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 13 X 13 2 181.64 1 89.77 89.77 56.34 10
13 Federica FAIELLA / Massimo SCALI ITA 11 X 11 3 179.92 1 89.96 89.96 54.59 9
15 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 9 X 9 4 160.01 1 80.78 80.78 47.51 10
16 Emily SAMUELSON / Evan BATES USA 9 X 9 4 158.07 1 80.41 80.41 46.55 10
If either Bobrova or Samuelson won, they would have 24 points and win a tie breaker with the Kerrs, otherwise they don't qualify.
If V&M finish 4th they have 24 points, and the win the first tie breaker by virtue of winning TEB. And they also clinch, obviously if they place 1,2, or 3.
As everyone has pointed out, if it is V&M, P&B and F&S, P&B go and so do the Kerrs.
In every other scenario with those 3 teams swapping places, only if F&S finishes 3rd or worse, do the Kerrs go to the GPF for sure. If F&S finishes second, the Kerrs most likely lose the total points tie breaker, although with Antarctica melting, I won't say anything is sure!
Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Faiella and Scali are out of Skate Canada. The Kerrs are into the Finale unless Samuelson & Bates or Bobrova & Soloviev win Skate Canada(I don't *think* that's going to happen, but these days I'm not assuming anything's impossible!). Line-up presumptive:
This is the first final that probably won't have a Russian team! I hope P&B pull off a second place at SC to secure their trip to the final. It will be nice to see K&K finally get a spot at the final as well. It is really nice to see such a mixture of different teams, three very young teams, and B&A at their 6th final, and of course K&K at their very first!
Last edited by cotillion; 11-18-2009 at 02:33 AM.