18 couples have competed so far in two events, and so far the eliminations have been determined by complete withdrawal from the series while noone surprising has been knocked out, though for a couple of teams its become a little harder. Analyses of those competed so far:
Trophée Eric Bombard Top Four:
1. Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir-Should win Skate Canada and then it's only a question of whether they win the Finale or not.
2. Nathalie Pechélat & Fabian Bourzat-Mathematically they need to win Skate Canada in order to seal it, which ain't gonna happen. However, with a strong likelihood that three teams will share the six golds between them, two silvers should get them in no problem at all. For that they would need to beat Faiella & Scali, which they did at Worlds, but they've lost to more often than not even so. Still would have a good chance if they won bronze, where their only real competition is Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates, and them barely, so unless they have a bad competition, it's either silver and in or, perhaps slightly more likely, bronze and as the chips fall.
3. Sinead & John Kerr-Would need to win NHK to seal it, which isn't too likely with Meryl and Charlie there. However, their only remote competition for silver is Vanessa Crone and Paul Poirier, who've had a disappointment already not making the podium at the Rostelecom Cup. Most likely they take silver and hope.
4. Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates-To have a chance they'd need to win Skate Canada, where they'd need to do a lot better than they've done to even take silver.
Rostelecom Cup Top Four:
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White-need only medal at NHK, where there isn't even much competition for gold.
2. Anna Cappellini & Luca Lanotte-Mathematically would have to win Skate America, and beating Tanith and Ben is not likely for them. Two silvers would still get them in, but even for that, they'd need to beat Khoklova & Novitski, which doesn't seem likely either. They could do bronze, if they could hold off the Zaretskis and Navarro & Bommentre, both of them they would be heavily favored over, but then they would probably be in the back of the score tiebreaker.
3. Ekaterina Rubleva & Ivan Shefer-Both events done, out with 5th at Trophée Eric Bombard.
4. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirer-Same situation as Samuelson & Bates, only substitute NHK Trophy for Skate Canada.
Knocked out, but ghost of a chance of still factoring in:
Kimberly Navarro & Brent Bommentre-6th at Trophée Eric Bombard, only miniscule chance of changing someone's fate at Skate America, but still more chance than anyone else finishing 5th or below so far
Katherine Copely & Devidas Stagniunas-8th at Rostelecom Cup, wouldn't even list them as confusing things at Skate Canada but there's noone else to list
Contenders yet to skate:
Tanith Belbin & Benjamin Agosto
Jana Khokhova & Sergei Novitski
Frederica Faiella & Massimo Scali