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Thread: Cup of China: Predictions

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    Cup of China: Predictions

    Well, with Asada bombing out of the GPF, Joubert off the podium at TEB and several other surprises, predicting this is rather silly. But I still have fun doing it, so here goes...

    Men
    1. Nobunari Oda
    2. Evan Lysacek
    3. Samuel Contesti
    4. Yannick Ponsero
    5. Denis Ten

    I think Oda will take his good result from TEB and run with it. He's got a program that works for him, a level of refinement that's quite strong already, and the ability to land great triples. Lysacek should be right behind - he's a strong competitor and very focused. I think he wants to prove that last year was no fluke.

    Contesti vs Ponsero vs Ten for bronze, and I think Contesti's all around strong skills win out (see those statistic threads). Ponsero, as good as he is, is a bit wobbly and Ten is still new - I don't think he'll get the PCS he needs to make bronze.

    Women
    1. Joannie Rochette
    2. Rachel Flatt
    3. Fumie Suguri
    4. Carolina Kostner
    5. Mirai Nagasu

    This is Rochette's to lose. I don't think she will: that confident, 7-triple performance at the Japan Open really raised my expectations. Flatt has shown steadiness in her summer competitions (something virtually everyone in this field lacks) and I think she'll do well here. It's bronze that I'm curious about. Kostner.. she upended her training situation this for season, but it didn't work out for her at TEB. I think her problems are too broad to be instantly fixed in time for this competition. Suguri - she really wants to make this Olympic team. I know that sounds "well,duh" but will she be able to channel that into a successful GP season? And Nagasu's my wild card.

    Pairs
    1. Shen/Zhao
    2. Zhang/Zhang
    3. Volosozhar/Morozov
    4. Duhamel/Buntin
    5. Iliushechkina/Maisuradze

    I don't want to overrate Shen/Zhao. After all, they have competed in three seasons, and Zhang/Zhang are quite strong and also, like S/Z, on home turf. I don't know who the Chinese Federation would support. I assume S/Z, simply because it's their last shot. Zhang/Zhang COULD be around for another cycle (I doubt it. This will be their third Olympics. Pretty cool, actually), but Shen/Zhao came out of retirement for one more chance at the brass ring. Given how underwhelming pairs skating has been this cycle, it'd be a pretty sweet ending to a great career that's had disappointing Olympic success (overshadowed by the controversy in 2002; the injury that took them out of competition for much of 2005/06 and seeing teammates get gifted points).

    I think it's Ukraine vs Canada for the bronze, and V/M take it on the basis of a better 08/09 season (aka, I think they're better) and D/B's lack of refinement hurts them. I/M in fifth because I can't imagine any of the other teams beating them.

    Dance
    1. Belbin/Agosto
    2. Khoklova/Novitski
    3. Faiella/Scalia
    4. Chock/Zuerlein
    5. Zaretski/Zaretski

    Belbin Agosto are Gold-Silver-Gold-Silver in this event, so now it's time for Gold. It is written (:D) But seriously, I don't think they have much of a challenge from K/N. Even if K/N are boosted due to chicanery, all that means to me is that K/N are guaranteed second. B/A would have to have another freak fall for that to rewrite itself F/S are in third for me - I don't think C/Z will quite able to catch up to them in their first senior GP. I have Z/Z ahead of Weaver/Poje just because I don't want to jinx the Canadian team. C/Z, Z/Z and W/P all have their personal best within five points of each other, and I could see them ending up in any 4th-6th positions.
    Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 10-25-2009 at 01:17 PM.

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