YuNa KIM (Korea)
Evan Lysacek (USA)
Savchenko/Szolkowy (Germany)
Domnina/Shabalan (Russia}
The above are all Worlds Gold Medalists of 2009 going into the Olympics of 2010.
Assuming they are the leading contenders in each of their disciplines, what are their chances of winning Gold in Vancouver?
Evan has the least chance, for a lot of reasons, he has to be on the top of his game, and nine times out of ten has to have the others falter.. that and he has to deal with the pressure of being a defending world champ in an Olympic year, and if the pattern repeats, bubba don't got a prayer.
In order from most to least likely.
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Evan Lysachek
3. Domnina/Shabalin
My order from most to least likely-
1. S&S
2. Kim
3. D&S
4. Lysacek (I just don't see him as the OGM)
Neither do I (men's field is too broad), but I don't know how Shabalin will cope with his injury this season.
I think a lot of people will agree about Lysacek, but did those same people think he would not win the Worlds?
Fair enough. I think in mens, along with dance, it's become about who shows up during the skate. I mean, I can think of ten skaters, if they show up, (both literally and in terms of putting on their best skate) could conceivably be on the men's podium (Abbott, Chan, Lysacek, Wier, Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka, Plushenko, Verner, Joubert - and that's ignoring Contesti or van der Perren, who are longshot, darkhorses/sun-barely-through-the-mane at best). In fact, but don't quote me on this everyone here's beat everyone else (excluding Plushenko) at least once, whether overall or during a specific program.
Kim and S/S are fighting weaker fields. I can see Kim losing to Asada or (longshot) Ando. I can see S/S losing to one of the Chinese teams. There are probably around five teams facing Domnina/Shabalin for gold/medals. It's just brutal for men's, though.
I don't have favorites except for a couple of skaters who no longer skate comps.
However, I do rank them for their comps. I am looking forward to seeing S&Z, Sasha Cohen and Evgeni Plushenko in whatever GPs they are entered in. I will not judged them on medals but I will note what do they now have to offer. The main question is whether there are new elements still in the offering and have they maintained their styles, or will the music take them elsewhere.
All the 2009 Worlds Champions have a shot for Olympic gold. With the exception of the above 3 comebacks, they are entering the fray as Worlds winners. Not easy to ignore that because they already won over their adversaries in LA.
exactly, to me i see it like arakawa, i didn't imagine her winning worlds...then the olympics...Originally Posted by Joesitz
I think a lot of people will agree about Lysacek, but did those same people think he would not win the Worlds?
obviously, in my eyes, dance gold is reserved pour la Marseillaise...
but then again, in all disciplines...i say the top 5 in world rankings has a chance at gold. dont you think?
I would say that of the three Evan has the least chance of Victory. First, he will probably try the quad in at least one program (after all that is what he has been trying it all these years for) and if he falls, he won't win. 2nd, the Men's field is VERY thick. Anybody could win. With Takahashi coming back and Patrick trying a quad you never know what everybody will pull out. Maybe Nobu will live up to his potential.
yeah, but lighting does not strike twice.I think a lot of people will agree about Lysacek, but did those same people think he would not win the Worlds?
The other three all have pretty high likely hoods of winning. yu-na and domina/shabalin just have to stay on their feet.
Most to least likely:
1. Savchenko/Szokwoly- they will need to fall a bunch of times to not win.
2. Yu Na Kim- will need to either falter or Asada skate lights out.
3. Domnina/Shabalin- depends on DelSchoes readiness and their own health mostly, plus whether Virtue/Moir get many home boost points being in Canada.
4. Evan Lysacek- not much chance really. Alot of contenders and he is a weakish champion.
Shen/Zhou if they return better than ever are the only threats to S/S. Pang/Tong and the Zhangs could never beat the Germans unless they completely bomb like they did at the GPF. I am not just talking a couple mistakes, but one mistake after another sort of meltdown.
In the dance I see Domnina/Shabalin, Delobel/Schoenfelder, and Virtue/Moir the only teams capable of winning. I could see Belbin/Agosto, Davis/White, or Khohklova/Novitski (if DomShabs are hurt) medal but not win.
1. Savchenko/Szokwoly ~ I think just leagues above everyone else right now, espeically when they get their Olympic game on.
3. Domnina/Shabalin ~ They have a decent chance, but still a crazy amount of competition expecially from V/M and D/W
2. Yu Na Kim ~ When her rivals put the pressure on, she cracks :\
4. Evan Lysacek ~ Most of the past season, particaularly worlds, was very strange and fluke-y (in all divisons of skating). I think it will be hard for him to win again with the pressure coming on him from Plush, Weir, Joubert and Chan
No one thought of Lysacek winning the Worlds, including me, but he did!
No one thought of Lysacek being first at World Trophy, including me, but he was.
I don't think he will win the Olys, but he is a contender for gold, imo.
S/S
Kim, Domnina &Shabalin
Lysacek
eta: i think one of Linnie's teams will win ice dance gold. and i'm not even sure if Delobel can regain top form in time for the Olympics.
Last edited by Enthusiast; 07-23-2009 at 11:19 PM.
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