So let's predict!
Since my CoC predictions sucked for a big part, I want to do better with NHK.
Here's the entries list:
http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent00011088.htm
So let's predict!
Since my CoC predictions sucked for a big part, I want to do better with NHK.
Here's the entries list:
http://www.isuresults.com/events/fsevent00011088.htm
Cynthia Phaneuf!
Ladies
1. Miki Ando
2. Yukari Nakano
3. Laura Lepistö
Men
1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Brian Joubert
Pairs
1. Qing Pang & Jian Tong
2. Yuko Kavaguti & Alexander Smirnov
3. Rena Inoue & John Baldwin
Ice Dance
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White
2. Sinead Kerr & John Kerr
3. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier
Go Miki!
1.Miki
2.Ashley
3.Yukari or Leonova or Laura
Men
1. La-la-la (but it's not a given. Depends on whether La-la-la attemps a quad in fs, and what becomes of that)
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Jeremy Abbott
Ladiez
1. Miki Ando
2. Yukari Nakano
3. Alyona Leonova
Pairs
1. Qing PANG / Jian TONG
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Ksenia KRASILNIKOVA / Konstantin BEZMATERNIKH
Ice Dance
1. Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE
2. Sinead KERR / John KERR
3. Vanessa CRONE / Paul POIRIER
My guess is that the Japanese duo of Nakano/Ando will go 1-2 (in either order, but probably Ando on top).
It's anyone's guess what will happen below that. If Wagner grabs a bronze here is she in the running for the GPF?
ETA: Actually, looking at the roster again, one of the Europeans could sneak in as well, as Korpi did in China- some room might be "made" for one or more of them...
Last edited by R.D.; 11-01-2009 at 01:19 AM.
Men
1. Takahashi
2. Abbott
3. Kozuka
Ladies
1. Ando
2. Nakano
3. Leonova
Pairs
1. Kavaguti/Smirnov
2. Pang/Tong
3. Denney/Barrett
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Kerr/Kerr
3. Crone/Poirier
Pairs
1. Qing PANG / Jian TONG
2. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV
3. Ksenia KRASILNIKOVA / Konstantin BEZMATERNIKH
1.Miki
2.Laura
3.Yukari
4.Leonova
Really tough field to predict... D. Takahashi in Men is very much an unknown to me. And Ladies is awful to predict!
I'll go for:
Men
1. Kozuka
2. D. Takahashi
3. Joubert
4. Rippon
5. Abbott
Ladies
1. Ando (because for some reason the judges like her)
2. Wagner (because I have faith in my favorite skater, predictions are always a little bit mixed with dream podium)
3. Lepisto (once again dreams vs prediction; I always prefer a multi-continental podium)
4. Nakano
5. Leonova
I can never predict anything. I just want to cross my fingers for Takahashi. At his best, he's so spectacular, and I hope he hasn't lost that. As for Ando vs. Nakano, something in me gets distressed watching Nakano jump, though all her other skills are top-notch. If the technical experts are downgrading everything in sight, how can a wrapped-leg jump be okay?
Mens and Ladies are tough predictions for me so I won't predict those two disciplines.
Pairs
P/T China
K/S Russia
D/B or I/B USA
Ice Dance
D/W USA
K/K GBR
C/P Canada
M/N Cze
Dai seems great this season. He has his jumps back. His spins seem even better than before.Originally Posted by Olympia
I do not think Nakano's steps very good. Her changes of edges don't look very smooth. But I like her spins. I also like her music selections this season. I think these powerful pieces suit her personality better than gentle balletic music.
My prediction
Men
1. Joubert
2. Kozu
3. Dai
Ladies
1. Miki
2. Wagner
3. Laura
Men
1. Daiskuke Takahashi
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Brian Joubert
5. Adam Rippon
Okay, this will be interesting. Unlike CoC being so cut and dry (which it wasn't, but we'll let that slide), on paper, this is a deep line-up. First question: is Brian Joubert still struggling, mentally? As people have asked here/elswhere, does Plushenko being back make him a less unique commodity (as Plushenko rips of those quads and axels far more naturally than Joubert)? If the answer to either of these questions is yes, than I don't see how he can medal here, as his relative consistency and solid jumps were what got him those medals.
What about Abbott? Is he keeping the Beatles program (which is another great short) or not? On the one hand, he does well early in the season (see last year). On the other hand, less time to prepare is less time. Do expectations begin to mount for Rippon as an Olympic spot enters the realm of plausibility? Is Johnny able to recalibrate in time? And what about Brezina - along with Rippon and D. Ten, he's at the head of the pack of the group who'll threaten in Sochi. And can Chipeur improve after his disasterous TEB outing?
And finally, Takahashi and Kozuka. I think they'll be the top two, and I'm predicting Takahashi to win on the basis of strong PCS (he's a more outward skater).
Women
1. Miki Ando
2. Laura Lepisto
3. Yukari Nakano
4. Sarah Meier
5. Ashley Wagner
Another oddly deep field, but the problem is more that it's unexpectedly so. Meier, a consistent GP/Euros medalist who's previous season was marred by injury. How does she factor in? Wagner benefited from a disappointing competition in CoR. How does she factor in here? And who is the #1 European skater now? Is it Lepisto, being the reigning European champion? Is it Kostner, being the only (multi)medalist and, in terms of pure ability, likely the best? Every competition so far has had a major upset - Asada off the podium at CoR. S/S at third and Joubert 4th at TEB. Rochette at CoC. So it's obviously quite tempting to try and predict one here. But I won't (despite flirting with putting both Nakano and Lepisto on top, I'll stick with the easy choice and go for a medalist here). Miki Ando seems to have a solid strategy this season and she did well at CoR despite having a very new short program. Phaneuf would do well to crack the top five, but I think she'll be bubbling under it.
Pairs
1. Pang/Tong
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Inoue/Baldwin
4. Brodeur/Mattatal
5. Denney/Barrett
I'm VERY curious how bronze plays out. The top two will be the top two, in either/or order, but the next three... confuse me. Brodeur and Mattatal have a nice program, but are rough around the edges (and the short program doesn't play to their strength, with are in their easy lifts). Inoue/Baldwin saw coaching changes pay off dividends with their free in TEB, and I suspect that after ending their last season at 4CC, they're definitely eager to make the world/Olympic team. And Denney/Barrett... well, basically I see these three teams in any combination filling out the top five. The next three are basically there for the experience.
Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Kerr/Kerr
3. Crone/Poirier
4. Reed/Reed
5. Zadorozhniuk/Verbillo
Davis/White dominate again. Z/V could beat the Reeds, but I think skating in Japan will give them a mild boost and they'll sneak past. If Kerr/Kerr don't fix the levels, I can see C/P sneaking past them, but that's not that likely.
Men:
1. Johnny Weir - (just because)
2. Daisuke Takahashi
3. Takahiko Kozuka
4. Brian Joubert
Ladies:
1. Miki Ando
2. Ashely Wagner
3. Yukari Nakano
4. Laura Lepisto
Dance:
1. Davis/White
2. Kerr/Kerr
3. Crone/Poirier
4. Reed/Reed
Pairs:
1.Pang/Tong
2. Kavaguti/Smirnov
3. Inoue/Baldwin
4. Brodeur/Mattata
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