Half Way to the Finals and What's Happening
Plushenko and Cohen omitted because of only 1 GP. I think it will take more than 15 points, and they are SPOILERS.
Only Oda is definitely in. Good chances of making the Final are: Verner, Lysacek, Kozuka although they meet at SA and may knock one or the other out.
Other potentials: Rippon and Borodulin
Still to be seen: Abbott, Brezina, and Takahashi.
This is a super game of players. Sorry Evgeni ruined it for someone.
For The Ladies: Mao may not have enough points, although she is ahead of Korpi.
No one is defintely in at this junction.
YuNa, Akiko and Miki are tied as of now, and none of them will compete against each other in the 3 remaining events.
Ashley meets Miki and Yukari as well as Leonova in Japan. It is possible that Ashley makes the Final. Lepisto will skate her first along with Phaneuf.
Flatt goes into an easy GP in SA, but faces YuNa, and Cohen, and Flatt needs to make a silver. How much a Spoiler Sasha will be, we don't know at the moment.
At SC, Rochette meets up with Suzuki for a rematch, as well as Phaneuf and Meier
This is another super game of players. We'll see if Sasha's entry affects it for some other wishful Finalist.
Can you pick your Finalists at this point in time? i cerainly can't. Some, yes. Some, no.
Last edited by Joesitz; 11-01-2009 at 12:31 PM.
I can't imagine Mao still making the GP? Yu Na is probably a lock; the field at SA isn't too deep, and well, she was miles ahead of everyone at TEB were the field was pretty deep.
Can Ashley still make the final if she only places fourth at NHK? Ideally she'll grab a medal, of course, it's a possibility; though Miki, Yukari and Lepisto are all potentially rough competitors to beat! After TEB, NHK has the deepest field in Ladies.
I'm very curious about Rippon; can he pull an upset again at NHK and make the final? He's such a sweet guy! I totally became a fan after meeting him in Paris!
Hopefully Kozuka can make the final too, but he's pretty consistent; so he has a good shot. Rippon and Kozuka... Can I be as lucky as I was at TEB and have *both* my favorites on the podium?
Right now, best guess/crazy shot in the dark?
1. Nobunari Oda, 30 points
2. Evan Lysacek, 28 points
3. Daisuke Takahashi, 28 points
4. Tomas Verner, 26 points
5. Takahiko Kozuka, 26 points
6. Samuel Contesti, 20 points
1. Yu-Na Kim, 30 points
2. Miki Ando, 30 points
3. Joannie Rochette, 26 points
4. Akiko Suzuki, 26 points
5. Laura Lepisto, 26 points
6. Rachel Flatt, 22 points
1. Shen/Zhao, 30 points
2. Pang/Tong, 30 points
3. Savchenko/Szolkowy, 26 points
4. Mukhortova/Trankov, 26 points
5. Zhang/Zhang, 26 points
6. Kavaguti/Smirnov, 26 points
1. Davis/White, 30 points
2. Virtue/Moir, 30 points
3. Belbin/Agosto, 30 points
4. Kholklova/Novitski, 26 points
5. Faiella/Scali, 24 points
6. Kerr/Kerr, 24 points
On cloud nine and refusing to come down!
Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
I sort of feel like I should have done my in-depth Ladies prospect now instead after two events, what with the loop CoC threw us for. Current status of three sets of top fours:
1.Yu-Na Kim-still winning Skate America, unless there's another shocker.
2. Mao Asada-still mind-blowingly out
3. Yukari Nakano-still hoping to win silver at NHK to give herself a chance, with a longer shot at winning.
4. Caroline Zhang-Still don't think she'll win Skate Canada, if only because she'd have to beat several others there
1. Miki Ando-Still favorite to win NHK and likely to do well enough in any case
2. Ashley Wagner-Still with prospects not dissimilar to Yukari's, but now with four projected gold medalists on the Grand Prix(and that's if there's not another upset), she'll want that silver over Yukari; bronze renders her deeply vulnerable to the score tiebreaker. If anyone wins more than one event two silvers will get a skater into the Finale, so if Miki wins above her with silver she's in.
3. Alena Leonova-Prospects down just a little bit, unless she pulls an upset win at NHK, otherwise best she can hope for is silver and bronze, and then it's how much she scores.
4. Alissa Czisney-Still facing an uphill battle, but Joannie's not looking undefeatable all of a sudden, and of course, Skate Canada does seem to be her lucky event...but then she will need either someone else to win more than one event(of course Yu-Na should take care of that) or noone to win two silvers, which would beat out first and fourth
1. Akiko Suzuki-Needs to medal at Skate Canada to be sure of it. She will face Joannie again, which I think will come down to how the latter skates, but if the latter skates clean, she'll be battling for the podium with Mirai again, Laura Lepisto, Caroline Zhang, and Sarah Meier, and Alissa Czisney. She's very capable of beating all five, and she need only beat four. Dropping off the podium would render her slightly less safe, especially if Alissa wins and there are two 1st and 4ths in direct competition with each other(though if Joannie wins with Yu-Na winning SA she's probably safe enough). Another good skate and she should be fine.
2. Kiira Korpi-Both events done, with 8th in France she's out.
3. Joannie Rochette-Needs to win Skate Canada, and if she doesn't-especially if Czisney suddenly does-silver and bronze will leave her dangerously vulnerable. If she hits her short program she can hope for it to work out. Just skip the triple-triple attempt.
4. Rachael Flatt-To have any chance at all she'd have to win Skate America, and how does she beat Yu-Na?
Laura Lepisto and Sarah Meier are outside contenders yet to skate.
Well, for the ladies right now (after NHK) it looks like it will be Kim, Ando, Suzuki, Rochette, Leonova and Wagner.
Leonov and Wagner both have 24, with Leonova ahead (just barely) on the second tie-breaker. Suzuki needs only a fourth to place ahead of Leonova and Wagner on the first tie-breaker. Rochette needs a second at Skate Canada to join the group at 24. If she des, she will probably be the leading scorer in the 13+11 group.
It looks like the only other thing that could possibly happen is if either Czisny, or Zhang wins Skate Canada. or Flatt wins Skate America (beating Kim.) Then that skater would bump Wagner.
Last edited by Mathman; 11-07-2009 at 08:35 PM.
So no matter how you cut the mustard, it looks like there will be one American lady at the Final.
Well it's a good sign and will be confident and judges favor booster. It along shot for the medal in the GPF, but finishing 4-5 is still not bad.
Originally Posted by PolymerBob
The men are a little bit harder to predict. 2 is in for now (Oda and Joubert). And Lysacek and Verner will take the next two spots and that leave 2 more spots left.
And I got a feeling at least one of the spot will be taken by someone unknown.