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Thread: Looking into downgrade stats

  1. #1
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Looking into downgrade stats

    Hi
    I got curious how much 'stricter' DG rule's affecting skaters.
    I thought it might be useful to compare DG ratio of last season to that of this season (until COC).
    So I compiled some stats for that here.

    Let me quickly explain how I did this calculation.
    It's really simple. All I do is to pick jump elements marked with '<'. And then get percentage to toal count of jumps. What about combo jump? I counted each element in it separately according to rules.

    Lets suppose 'Skater A' got protocols like '3F+2T<' and '2A'. I see total 3 jump elements there and 1 of them got DGed.
    So 'Skater A's DG ratio would be 33%.

    Ok boring part over. why not get to the data?
    Mind you, I looked up International events only , that is 6 GPs, GPF, FC, EC, WC.

    I got to Ladies first because It seems they are affected by it most.
    Last season, there were 265 DGed jump elements out of 2189 total. So make it 12.11%.
    This season so far (TEB, RC, COC) , that ratio is 12.08% (=54/447). So I could not find any noticeable difference.
    I don't know. Actually there have been fewer DGs per jump element so far.
    One can argue that big events like WC has very uneven field so I should consider GP events only.
    Still not much different. DG ratio of 7 GP events last season was 11.84%(=118/997).

    I added detailed table for each skater.
    your thought?
    Last edited by poorScorer; 11-06-2009 at 08:06 PM.

  2. #2
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Ladies (08-09 season)

    This is Ladies DG stat of last season.
    This list includes only one who has total jump element >= 10.
    And sorted out higher-ratio-first oder.

    DGratio% | (DG/total) | name
    43.75 | (7/16) | Tamami ONO
    42.86 | (12/28) | Mirai NAGASU
    42.31 | (11/26) | Yueren WANG
    35.71 | (5/14) | Emily HUGHES
    34.48 | (10/29) | Mira LEUNG
    33.33 | (4/12) | Michele CANTU
    31.71 | (13/41) | Tugba KARADEMIR
    22.41 | (13/58) | Miki ANDO
    21.43 | (3/14) | Stefania BERTON
    21.43 | (3/14) | Gracielle Jeanne TAN
    21.05 | (4/19) | Chaochih LIU
    20.00 | (6/30) | Katrina HACKER
    20.00 | (5/25) | Kimmie MEISSNER
    17.65 | (3/17) | Viktoria HELGESSON
    16.67 | (9/54) | Alissa CZISNY
    16.67 | (2/12) | Kiira KORPI
    15.79 | (6/38) | Binshu XU
    14.29 | (2/14) | Tina WANG
    14.29 | (2/14) | Sonia LAFUENTE
    14.29 | (2/14) | Loretta HAMUI
    13.64 | (3/22) | Kerstin FRANK
    13.46 | (7/52) | Na-Young KIM
    12.50 | (3/24) | Ashley WAGNER
    11.76 | (4/34) | Elene GEDEVANISHVILI
    11.54 | (6/52) | Annette DYTRT
    11.11 | (3/27) | Katarina GERBOLDT
    11.11 | (5/45) | Yukari NAKANO
    11.11 | (5/45) | Caroline ZHANG
    11.11 | (2/18) | Teodora POSTIC
    10.71 | (3/28) | Julia SEBESTYEN
    10.34 | (6/58) | Elena GLEBOVA
    09.86 | (7/71) | Mao ASADA
    09.09 | (1/11) | Myriane SAMSON
    08.11 | (6/74) | Yu-Na KIM
    07.69 | (2/26) | Beatrisa LIANG
    07.69 | (1/13) | Gwendoline DIDIER
    07.50 | (3/40) | Anastasia GIMAZETDINOVA
    07.14 | (1/14) | Nana TAKEDA
    07.14 | (2/28) | Ana Cecilia CANTU
    06.67 | (1/15) | Hyeon-Jung KIM
    06.25 | (1/16) | Irina MOVCHAN
    05.88 | (3/51) | Fumie SUGURI
    05.77 | (3/52) | Cynthia PHANEUF
    05.56 | (1/18) | Isabelle PIEMAN
    05.41 | (4/74) | Carolina KOSTNER
    05.00 | (3/60) | Rachael FLATT
    04.44 | (2/45) | Yan LIU
    03.70 | (1/27) | Sarah MEIER
    03.45 | (1/29) | Akiko SUZUKI
    02.63 | (1/38) | Candice DIDIER
    02.63 | (1/38) | Jenna MCCORKELL
    01.85 | (1/54) | Susanna POYKIO
    01.67 | (1/60) | Alena LEONOVA
    00.00 | (0/12) | Karly ROBERTSON
    00.00 | (0/26) | Ivana REITMAYEROVA
    00.00 | (0/12) | Jenni VAHAMAA
    00.00 | (0/71) | Joannie ROCHETTE
    00.00 | (0/12) | Francesca RIO
    00.00 | (0/12) | Nina PETUSHKOVA
    00.00 | (0/15) | Amelie LACOSTE
    00.00 | (0/18) | Nella SIMAOVA
    00.00 | (0/19) | Cheltzie LEE
    00.00 | (0/57) | Laura LEPISTO
    00.00 | (0/14) | Anna JURKIEWICZ
    00.00 | (0/14) | Manouk GIJSMAN

  3. #3
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Ladies (09-10 season)

    This is Ladies DG stat of this GP season. (TEB, RC, COC)
    I listed all ladies here, also sorting by higher-ratio-first oder.

    DGratio% | (DG/total) | name
    36.36 | (4/11) | Annette DYTRT
    33.33 | (1/3) | Binshu XU
    33.33 | (5/15) | Mirai NAGASU
    30.77 | (4/13) | Fumie SUGURI
    26.92 | (7/26) | Mao ASADA
    23.08 | (3/13) | Katarina GERBOLDT
    23.08 | (3/13) | Beatrisa LIANG
    21.43 | (3/14) | Miki ANDO
    21.43 | (3/14) | Alissa CZISNY
    17.39 | (4/23) | Carolina KOSTNER
    15.38 | (2/13) | Anna JURKIEWICZ
    15.38 | (2/13) | Julia SEBESTYEN
    14.29 | (2/14) | Yukari NAKANO
    13.33 | (2/15) | Caroline ZHANG
    08.33 | (1/12) | Joannie ROCHETTE
    08.33 | (1/12) | Oksana GOZEVA
    07.69 | (1/13) | Bingwa GENG
    07.14 | (1/14) | Ashley WAGNER
    07.14 | (1/14) | Akiko SUZUKI
    06.67 | (1/15) | Alena LEONOVA
    06.67 | (1/15) | Alexe GILLES
    06.67 | (1/15) | Yan LIU
    03.57 | (1/28) | Kiira KORPI
    00.00 | (0/12) | Anastasia GIMAZETDINOVA
    00.00 | (0/14) | Rachael FLATT
    00.00 | (0/14) | Amelie LACOSTE
    00.00 | (0/12) | Gwendoline DIDIER
    00.00 | (0/13) | Elene GEDEVANISHVILI
    00.00 | (0/14) | Jenna MCCORKELL
    00.00 | (0/15) | Diane SZMIETT
    00.00 | (0/14) | Yu-Na KIM

  4. #4
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Your analysis is incomplete, and to be honest I don't think it is possible to do it like that.

    Skaters could be changing their jump elements or jump combinations (just like YuNa did), plus, skaters will generally improve while they train under ISU's vigorous underrotation and edge witchhunt

    But even assuming nothing changed, you would still have had to do a statistical test to determine if the slight difference in percentages is significant.

  5. #5
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Men

    Men is much diffrent form the ladies.
    Simply they seldom DGed. I don't know why.

    Last season, there were only 117 marks out of 2339 total, making it 5.00%. Much much lower than ladies.
    This season so far, that number dropped even lower : 3.44%(=18/524)

  6. #6
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Men (08-09 season)

    I included only man who has total jump element >= 20 here.
    Sorting order is same as ladies.

    DGratio% | (DG/total) | name
    19.35 | (6/31) | Kevin REYNOLDS
    12.50 | (4/32) | Shawn SAWYER
    11.11 | (4/36) | Jamal OTHMAN
    10.87 | (5/46) | Gregor URBAS
    10.00 | (2/20) | Ari-Pekka NURMENKARI
    09.68 | (3/31) | Adam RIPPON
    09.09 | (4/44) | Yasuharu NANRI
    08.33 | (4/48) | Artem BORODULIN
    08.20 | (5/61) | Evan LYSACEK
    07.50 | (6/80) | Takahiko KOZUKA
    06.78 | (4/59) | Kristoffer BERNTSSON
    06.67 | (2/30) | Takahito MURA
    05.08 | (3/59) | Sergei VORONOV
    05.00 | (1/20) | Mark WEBSTER
    04.84 | (3/62) | Anton KOVALEVSKI
    04.76 | (3/63) | Brandon MROZ
    04.17 | (3/72) | Tomas VERNER
    03.85 | (3/78) | Jeremy ABBOTT
    03.39 | (2/59) | Igor MACYPURA
    03.33 | (2/60) | Adrian SCHULTHEISS
    03.33 | (2/60) | Jeremy TEN
    03.33 | (1/30) | Przemyslaw DOMANSKI
    03.23 | (2/62) | Brian JOUBERT
    03.23 | (1/31) | Ryan BRADLEY
    03.23 | (1/31) | Stephen CARRIERE
    02.27 | (1/44) | Johnny WEIR
    02.22 | (1/45) | Nobunari ODA
    02.17 | (1/46) | Kevin VAN DER PERREN
    02.00 | (1/50) | Jialiang WU
    01.33 | (1/75) | Patrick CHAN
    00.00 | (0/60) | Yannick PONSERO
    00.00 | (0/29) | Chengjiang LI
    00.00 | (0/29) | Alexander USPENSKI
    00.00 | (0/57) | Vaughn CHIPEUR
    00.00 | (0/57) | Andrei LUTAI
    00.00 | (0/28) | Javier FERNANDEZ
    00.00 | (0/31) | Samuel CONTESTI
    00.00 | (0/47) | Alban PREAUBERT
    00.00 | (0/29) | Song GAO
    00.00 | (0/50) | Peter LIEBERS
    00.00 | (0/30) | Denis TEN
    Last edited by poorScorer; 11-06-2009 at 08:29 PM.

  7. #7
    Tripping on the Podium
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    Men (09-10 season)

    Same as ladies this season, all skaters included.

    DGratio% | (DG/total) | name
    20.00 | (3/15) | Shawn SAWYER
    15.38 | (2/13) | Ari-Pekka NURMENKARI
    12.50 | (2/16) | Kevin REYNOLDS
    12.50 | (2/16) | Evan LYSACEK
    12.50 | (2/16) | Takahiko KOZUKA
    12.50 | (2/16) | Alban PREAUBERT
    07.69 | (1/13) | Brian JOUBERT
    07.14 | (1/14) | Javier FERNANDEZ
    06.67 | (1/15) | Jinlin GUAN
    06.25 | (1/16) | Artem BORODULIN
    03.33 | (1/30) | Yannick PONSERO
    00.00 | (0/15) | Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
    00.00 | (0/14) | Ming XU
    00.00 | (0/15) | Brandon MROZ
    00.00 | (0/32) | Chao YANG
    00.00 | (0/16) | Adam RIPPON
    00.00 | (0/14) | Denis TEN
    00.00 | (0/16) | Florent AMODIO
    00.00 | (0/14) | Ivan TRETIAKOV
    00.00 | (0/16) | Stephen CARRIERE
    00.00 | (0/14) | Kevin VAN DER PERREN
    00.00 | (0/16) | Tomas VERNER
    00.00 | (0/15) | Peter LIEBERS
    00.00 | (0/14) | Evgeni PLUSHENKO
    00.00 | (0/15) | Ryan BRADLEY
    00.00 | (0/13) | Johnny WEIR
    00.00 | (0/15) | Adrian SCHULTHEISS
    00.00 | (0/32) | Sergei VORONOV
    00.00 | (0/11) | Vaughn CHIPEUR
    00.00 | (0/31) | Nobunari ODA
    00.00 | (0/16) | Samuel CONTESTI

  8. #8
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Thanks for the numbers!

    By country: Finnish ladies (both seasons combined): 2/157 = 0.0127.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scorer
    Men is much diffrent form the ladies.
    Simply they seldom DGed. I don't know why.
    Yes, I am afraid that the CoP is telling us something about ladies figure skating that we don't want to hear.
    Last edited by Mathman; 11-06-2009 at 10:00 PM.

  9. #9
    Tripping on the Podium
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    prettykeys, I definitely agree with you that my analysis is incomplete.
    But I hope you dont take my argument too serious.
    I wanted to see some interesting analysis based on my data. yours included.
    (BTW, I agree skaters are adjusting to stricter rules. That should be part of reason.)
    Last edited by poorScorer; 11-06-2009 at 08:55 PM.

  10. #10
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by poorScorer View Post
    prettykeys, I definitely agree with you that my analysis is incomplete.
    But I hope you dont take my argument too serious.
    I wanted to see some interesting analysis based on my data. yours included.
    (BTW, I agree skaters are adjusting to stricter rules. That should be part of reason.)
    Oh, sure! I didn't think doing your numbers hurt, and could have revealed interesting things.

  11. #11
    Rooting for the divas with Kwanford Spun Silver's Avatar
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    The disparities between individual skaters are rather staggering. Are Jenna McCorkell and Karly Robertson really better jumpers than Mao Asada and Mirai Nagasu? Somebody, explain!

  12. #12
    Yeah! Lets get this party started. enlight78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spun Silver View Post
    The disparities between individual skaters are rather staggering. Are Jenna McCorkell and Karly Robertson really better jumpers than Mao Asada and Mirai Nagasu? Somebody, explain!
    If a skater only do 3/2 ,toes, and loops; they are proably going to not UR as much as skaters that go for 3/3 and 3A. The difficulty jump content is also a factor in the UR percentage; Some skaters push the envolope other dont ; some are consistant others arent

    I think guys generally get more hieght so it is easier to finish the rotations; I think women have to be more precise than men because if they are a little off the hips and breast will exaggerate that; this is all just theory by the way
    Last edited by enlight78; 11-06-2009 at 11:15 PM.

  13. #13
    Rink Rat i love to skate's Avatar
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    I think this data really shows who the best jumper is....Joannie Rochette! 0/71

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