Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
I'll do the math as I type here(I'm having way too much fun doing this, pity it's almost over):
Originally Posted by Danale
Kerrs are currently in second in the overall standings with a score total of 354.84. To not make the Grand Prix Finale, five teams would need to to pass them. There are currently eight teams that can do so:
Belbin & Agosto and Virtue & Moir: Will persumably win Skate America and Skate Canada respectively, and hope for free dance scores of over 100 when they do...
Khokhlova & Novitski and Cappellini & Lanotte: Both competing at Skate America, both would pass them if they won silver. To pass them with bronze, K&N would need a score of 174.27, easily attainable for them, while C&L would need 186.27, which would be for difficult for them. It seems likely K&N will take the silver and C&L will come in behind the Kerrs on the score tiebreaker.
Pechelat & Bourzat and Faiella & Scali: Competing against each other for silver at Skate Canada, which F&S must win in order to still be in the race. To get ahead of the Kerrs, F&S would also have to score 174.92, and their Cup of China score leaves them with a good five points to spare. Pechelat & Bourzat would go ahead automatically with silver; with bronze they'd need 173.20, which I think they can manage since it's well below their TEB score. While they scored more at TEB then F&S scores at CoC, it's only a two point difference, not enough to say with any certainty what will happen at SC.
Boborva & Soloviev and Samuelson & Bates: Would both need to win Skate Canada, and since it is not possible have two winners, reduce number of teams that can pass the Kerrs to seven.
It is of course unlikely that either B&S or S&B will win Skate Canada, but even then there's six teams to pass the Kerrs. Eliminate C&L as unlikely due to the score tiebreaker and it's five. But here it goes down to the wire, because it F&S get silver and P&B bronze at SC, it seems very likely they will both go ahead of the Kerrs on the score tiebreaker, and it seems equally likely that all three of B&A, V&M, and K&N will go ahead on their medals. In order for the Kerrs to make the Grand Prix Finale, P&B must beat F&S. And I don't think there's any telling whether they'll do that or not.