Who's In the Ladies Final

[Bennett]

She did Double Axels after other jumps which, while not a "combination" in terms of the actual definition, is worth more than just adding 2t to a jump.

Your assessment of Akiko is unfair. She skated very well at her Nationals last year and should have gone to Worlds. She is a better jumper than most of the field and her presentation has improved quite a bit. Akiko is blossoming into a GREAT skater.

I expect no less than 2nd place at Skate Canada from her.

I could be wrong in my memory. But I also had an impression that she had planned another combo that she ended up letting go there?

[silverlake22]

I could be wrong in my memory. But I also had an impression that she had planned another combo that she ended up letting go there?

You are probably right, she might have left out the 2nd combination because she knew she did not need it to win. I also noticed her step sequence was a lot faster/harder than most of the other skaters, which may make up for her spirals and spins not being as insanely flexible as some of her competition at SC (ie Caroline, Mirai, Alissa). Joannie does not appear particularly flexible on the ice though and still manages to get high PCS scores

[silverlake22]

So what do we know about the final now that the scores from SA are in? Yu Na obviously goes but does Rachael have a shot to make it too? She's ahead of Mao and Yukari at this point, but behind Ashley. Does everything still depend on SC?

[Joesitz]

^^^

I just posted this in the Skate Canada folder.

Ladies:

Miki - 30
YuNa -30

Aliona - 24
Ashley - 24

Rachael - 22 (may not hold up)

Two more ladies needed:

Akiko - 15
Joannie - 11
Alysa -9
Caroline -9

If Akiko and Joannie skate up to expectations, Ashley will be the only American in the Ladies Final. But Heavy Meltdowns will change the expectations.

[Alicja]

^^^

I just posted this in the Skate Canada folder.

Ladies:

Miki - 30
YuNa -30

Aliona - 24
Ashley - 24

Rachael - 22 (may not hold up)

Two more ladies needed:

Akiko - 15
Joannie - 11
Alysa -9
Caroline -9

If Akiko and Joannie skate up to expectations, Ashley will be the only American in the Ladies Final. But Heavy Meltdowns will change the expectations.

And to get in to the final(and not at all realistic scenarios left aside), Alissa or Caroline would need to win SC, or place second with a score of 179,48(Caroline) or 174,33(Alissa) for 22 points and to beat out Rachael on the tie breaker.

[PolymerBob]

^^^

I just posted this in the Skate Canada folder.

Ladies:

Miki - 30
YuNa -30

Aliona - 24
Ashley - 24

Rachael - 22 (may not hold up)

Two more ladies needed:

Akiko - 15
Joannie - 11
Alysa -9
Caroline -9

If Akiko and Joannie skate up to expectations, Ashley will be the only American in the Ladies Final. But Heavy Meltdowns will change the expectations.

So if I have this right, Akiko bumps Rachael down 1 spot if she gets 5th or better, ( 1 + 5 ) > ( 4 + 2 ). Joannie bumps Rachael down if she gets silver, but is below Rachael if she gets bronze. ( 4 + 2 ) > ( 3 + 3 ). If Alissa or Caroline win, she goes above Ashley and Alena. If Alissa or Caroline get silver, she goes above or below Rachael depending on total scores.

Clear as mud?

[Joesitz]

So if I have this right, Akiko bumps Rachael down 1 spot if she gets 5th or better, ( 1 + 5 ) > ( 4 + 2 ). Joannie bumps Rachael down if she gets silver, but is below Rachael if she gets bronze. ( 4 + 2 ) > ( 3 + 3 ). If Alissa or Caroline win, she goes above Ashley and Alena. If Alissa or Caroline get silver, she goes above or below Rachael depending on total scores. Clear as mud?

It certainly looks that way.

If Joannie or Akiko win, and either comes in second, at the same time, that's the end of the discussion. Any tie with 24 will not affect the entrants.

It seem like only a win by Czisny or Zhang will definitely put one in the Finals but trouble lies ahead for Rochette and Suzuki if they go too far down the podium. I also think tie breakers will prevail.

[silverlake22]

And to get in to the final(and not at all realistic scenarios left aside), Alissa or Caroline would need to win SC, or place second with a score of 179,48(Caroline) or 174,33(Alissa) for 22 points and to beat out Rachael on the tie breaker.

I don't think Caroline or Alissa have ever pulled off scores that high have they? Alissa might have gotten higher than that when she won SC in 2005 but I feel like when Caroline and Alissa skate well they usually get scores in the 150-165 range. Maybe i'm way off though...

[Enthusiast]

How can Sasha make the Olympic team.

[Mathman]

How can Sasha make the Olympic team.

By competing at U.S. Nationals and coming in first or second.

[Enthusiast]

By competing at U.S. Nationals and coming in first or second.

So she can still make it if she comes in 2nd?

How can Ashley join her? Given she is most likely the only American making the GPF, even if she places, say 3rd at Nationals will that be enough to bump Flatt off the team?

[Mathman]

So she can still make it if she comes in 2nd?

How can Ashley join her? Given she is most likely the only American making the GPF, even if she places, say 3rd at Nationals will that be enough to bump Flatt off the team?

My opinion is that first and second at nationals will go to the Olympics no matter what the outcome of the fall events is.

I might be wrong about that. I am just guessing at what the USFSA might or might not decide to do. Phil Hersh wrote an article a while back in which he asked some USFSA officials what the "new rules" meant and they gave assurance that the winner of nationals would automatically go, but there was some leeway to consider other factors for the second spot.

[PolymerBob]

My opinion is that first and second at nationals will go to the Olympics no matter what the outcome of the fall events is.

Let's say this is true ( for just a moment ), can a bang up performance in the Grand Prix influence who the top 2 are? Will standing on the podium in Lake Placid, Kitchner or Tokyo make a 91 degree UR look like 89 degrees at Nationals?

( Or maybe the USFSA uses radians. )

[Mathman]

Will standing on the podium in Lake Placid, Kitchner or Tokyo make a 91 degree UR look like 89 degrees at Nationals?

That's a good question. In fact, two good questions.

The first is, tech callers and judges being human, might reputation based on past performance influence their calls and scores at Nationals. I think yes.

The second is, will the powers that be in the USFSA instruct (or drop a hint to) the judges to give generous marks to their predetermined choices? No, I don't think so.

[silverlake22]

Is Sasha allowed to not show up at nationals but ask to go to the Olympics anyways? Isn't that what Michelle did in 2006 before she realized she was too injured to compete and Emily took her place?
I am confused because I thought international results went into the equation of who gets to go to the Olympics. It looks like Ashley may be the only US lady in the GPF...that's got to be worth something right? If she bombs at nationals than maybe not but otherwise...
Also if Sasha petitioned to go without competing would they let her? I feel like she just wants to win gold, which won't happen if she's injured and probably even if she isn't injured considering she'd have to beat Yu Na Kim.
The judges can also help certain people win with this new system, which makes everything even more confusing. I bet all the skaters would be super mad if Sasha got to go to the olympics without competing at nationals! Does anyone know if Kimmie will be competing at nats this year?